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lnkstern

The Occasional 2023-24 Math Thread

By lnkstern, in Leicester City Forum

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Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted

Ok both tables, for the top 3 is much smaller deviation now due to the gap closing.

 

Last 6 form predicted table.

 

Ipswich 104

Leeds 102

Leicester 95

Southampton 87

 

last 6 form and seasonal form combined predicted table.

 

Ipswich 101

Leeds 99

Leicester 98

Southampton 89

Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

Ok both tables, for the top 3 is much smaller deviation now due to the gap closing.

 

Last 6 form predicted table.

 

Ipswich 104

Leeds 102

Leicester 95

Southampton 87

 

last 6 form and seasonal form combined predicted table.

 

Ipswich 101

Leeds 99

Leicester 98

Southampton 89

What’s the method for combining them? 

Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)

I am just averaging them out, considering the existing points total is already obviously based on seasonal form, its pretty heavily weighted to seasonal form.

 

So as an example our last 6 ppg is 1.5, the seasonal ppg is 2.22 so a ppg of 1.86 was used.

Edited by Chrysalis
  • Like 1
lnkstern

lnkstern

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Leicester's match week 37 is complete.  One win, one draw in the last two matches away.

 

Status:  82 of 93 points required for automatic promotion.

 

Current points rate is 2.22/match.  1.22 points/match required for the rest of the season (11 points from 9 matches).

 

We have a 4-point gap over third place (Ipswich).

 

We have 88.2% of the required points for automatic promotion after 80.0% of the season.

Foxmeister

Foxmeister

Posted
Posted
On 09/03/2024 at 17:30, lnkstern said:

Leicester's match week 37 is complete.  One win, one draw in the last two matches away.

 

Status:  82 of 93 points required for automatic promotion.

 

Current points rate is 2.22/match.  1.22 points/match required for the rest of the season (11 points from 9 matches).

 

We have a 4-point gap over third place (Ipswich).

 

We have 88.2% of the required points for automatic promotion after 80.0% of the season.

I'm not at all sure 93 will cut it this season.

  • Like 3
  • 3 weeks later...
st albans fox

st albans fox

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ramboacdc said:

The fact 82 points last season would have got you 3rd and we are sitting here talking about the, albeit slim, chance of dropping to 6th or out the playoffs is insane. 

 

There is zero chance that we finish below 6th 

 

davieG

davieG

Posted
Posted

Form: Last 6 matches

    GP W D L GF GA GD Pts Opponents PPG
1 Ipswich Town 6 5 0 1 16 5 +11 15 1.08
2 Leeds Utd 6 4 2 0 11 4 +7 14 1.30
3 Norwich City 6 4 1 1 13 5 +8 13 0.91
4 West Brom 6 3 3 0 12 6 +6 12 1.19
5 Coventry City 6 4 0 2 12 7 +5 12 1.19
6 Cardiff City 6 4 0 2 6 6 0 12 1.27
7 Preston 6 3 2 1 10 4 +6 11 1.20
8 Swansea City 6 3 2 1 8 5 +3 11 1.29
9 Middlesbrough 6 3 2 1 7 4 +3 11 1.29
10 QP Rangers 6 3 2 1 8 7 +1 11 1.23
11 Millwall 6 3 2 1 6 5 +1 11 1.51
12 Southampton 6 3 1 2 13 10 +3 10 1.49
13 Sheffield Wed 6 3 1 2 5 10 -5 10 1.31
14 Stoke City 6 3 0 3 7 7 0 9 1.62
15 Hull City 6 1 4 1 6 7 -1 7 1.47
16 Bristol City 6 2 0 4 5 8 -3 6 1.74
17 Watford 6 1 2 3 6 8 -2 5 1.29
18 Huddersfield 6 1 2 3 5 10 -5 5 1.30
19 Blackburn 6 0 4 2 4 6 -2 4 1.21
20 Sunderland 6 1 1 4 5 8 -3 4 1.70
21 Plymouth 6 1 1 4 4 7 -3 4 1.54
22 Leicester City 6 1 1 4 6 10 -4 4 1.63
23 Birmingham City 6 0 1 5 5 10 -5 1 1.41
24 Rotherham 6 0 1 5 1 16 -15 1 1.38

The Opponents PPG values relate to the average home or away Points Per Game values of all opponents faced by each team in the last 6 games. Those home PPG or away PPG values are based on the seasonal Home PPG of the opponents that have been played away and the seasonal Away PPG of the opponents that have been played at home. So the opponents home or away PPG values are always based on ALL home games or on ALL away games of the opponents during the league season (not just in the opponents' last 6 games).

 

 

Perhaps change title to Occasional Win Thread

  • Like 1
lnkstern

lnkstern

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Leicester's match number 39 just finished.  All three top clubs have completed 39 matches as of this writing.

 

Status:  85 of 93 points required for automatic promotion.

 

Current points rate is 2.18/match.  1.14 points/match required for the rest of the season (8 points from 7 matches).

 

We are in first place and have a 2-point gap over third place (Ipswich).

 

We have 91.4% of the required points for automatic promotion after 84.8% of the season.

  • Like 1
Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, lnkstern said:

Leicester's match number 39 just finished.  All three top clubs have completed 39 matches as of this writing.

 

Status:  85 of 93 points required for automatic promotion.

 

Current points rate is 2.18/match.  1.14 points/match required for the rest of the season (8 points from 7 matches).

 

We are in first place and have a 2-point gap over third place (Ipswich).

 

We have 91.4% of the required points for automatic promotion after 84.8% of the season.

93 will not be enough. 97/98 minimum will be required.

  • Like 3
Aus Fox

Aus Fox

Posted
Posted

Leicester 106

Ipswich 105

Leeds 104

Southampton 101
West Brom 88

 

No one else can catch us. 
 

The top 3 all need to play Southampton. This last 7 games are going to be crazy. I’d imagine all 4 teams still in the autos hunt will drop points at some stage.

 

lnkstern

lnkstern

Posted
  • Author
Posted
27 minutes ago, Lionator said:

93 will not be enough. 97/98 minimum will be required.

 

You could very well be right.  However, I will stick with the historical 93-point requirement until it is proven to be insufficient.

 

Leeds, Ipswich, and Southampton are not immune to the nerves of the promotion chase. :)

  • Like 1
Foxmeister

Foxmeister

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, lnkstern said:

 

You could very well be right.  However, I will stick with the historical 93-point requirement until it is proven to be insufficient.

 

Leeds, Ipswich, and Southampton are not immune to the nerves of the promotion chase. :)

It's naive to think Ipswich and Leeds can't get 10 pts from their last 7 or Southampton to get 19 from their list 9.

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