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lnkstern

The Occasional 2023-24 Math Thread

By lnkstern, in Leicester City Forum

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Foxmeister

Foxmeister

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Foxmeister said:

Over the next 2 games covering us, Norwich, Preston and Cov, there are 6,561 possible outcomes and 36 of those would result in us making the play-offs on 6th March. I'm on a long break at work, sorry.

Having further extrapolated this out, due to a loading delay at my last pick up of the night, using the odds for the 8 fixtures and making a 6% adjustment on each game to cover the bookies edge there is roughly a 1 in 35 chance we'll be in the playoffs for certain by 6th March.

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Lillehamring

Lillehamring

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Lionator said:

Super computers don’t take into account psychological fragility. 

 

 

They can't predict the weather or injuries, either

 

It's not gospel, it's just a guide where all things beyond form are considered to remain equal

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Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 23/02/2024 at 14:23, CosbehFox said:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/02/championship-table-expected-points/

 

Opta's latest super computer calculations written by an author who really wants us not to win it very comprehensively 

Dont think its anything to do with wants, and its an interesting analysis, note this quote he thinks the current top 4 are the best teams the division has seen for a while.

 

Quote

The best place to start is probably the top four. In a perfect marriage of the data and the eye test, Leeds, Leicester City, Southampton and Ipswich Town make up the top four places in the expected points table, as they do in the real Championship table. It’s quite clear that these four teams are the best in the league this season – and arguably have been for some time – so it’s going to be a gut punch for at least one of those sides to miss out on promotion to the Premier League at the end of the campaign.

Also this might explain why I think the points needed for autos this season might be very high.

 

Quote

Before this season, just 15 of the 600 teams to take part in a second-tier campaign since 1999-00 had managed to win at least 67 points from their opening 33 matches. In 2023-24, those four aforementioned teams have all done it. Based on three points for a win, no second-tier season in English Football League history has seen as many as four teams win this tally of points by this stage. We’re witnessing a historic battle for promotion to the top flight.

 

Edited by Chrysalis
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Gamble92

Gamble92

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Lionator said:

Super computers don’t take into account psychological fragility. 

Well they do because if we had that we'd have lost more than 6 and it'd predict we'll lose more as a result. It doesn't take into account dodgy deflections and shit officiating though. 

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Phube

Phube

Posted
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Posted
38 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

image.png.8a24921fd3aecea7380f6f2d830d7631.png

8 more wins - gives us 102 points. 

 

Leeds and Ipswich maximum points is 108. 

 

 

Which absolute psychopath decided on a Traffic light colour system… and then went Red-Green-Yellow? :blink:

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Phube said:

Which absolute psychopath decided on a Traffic light colour system… and then went Red-Green-Yellow? :blink:

It's gone through a few iterations. Originally it was

Red = top third,

Amber = middle third

Green = bottom third

 

But then some people raised the idea that it might actually be the middle third (no chance of playoffs, no chance of relegation) that are the 'easiest' fixtures. 

 

Ultimately judging the 'difficulty' of fixtures purely on table position isn't particularly useful or nuanced. 

 

So I'd rather simply have a visual denotation for general table position without ascribing difficulty rating to them. 

 

Perhaps I'll edit it and use Blue, Yellow and Red or some other 3 colour range that doesn't intuitively read as 'easy, middle, hard' 

 

EDIT: Something like this?

image.png.691df001191acf9065546d3f8ab95b65.png

Edited by Les-TA-Jon
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Foxmeister

Foxmeister

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

It's gone through a few iterations. Originally it was

Red = top third,

Amber = middle third

Green = bottom third

 

But then some people raised the idea that it might actually be the middle third (no chance of playoffs, no chance of relegation) that are the 'easiest' fixtures. 

 

Ultimately judging the 'difficulty' of fixtures purely on table position isn't particularly useful or nuanced. 

 

So I'd rather simply have a visual denotation for general table position without ascribing difficulty rating to them. 

 

Perhaps I'll edit it and use Blue, Yellow and Red or some other 3 colour range that doesn't intuitively read as 'easy, middle, hard' 

 

EDIT: Something like this?

image.png.691df001191acf9065546d3f8ab95b65.png

Looks like a packet of Refreshers

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Xen

Xen

Posted
Posted

After a disappointing week, an update to my required-form table...

image.thumb.png.c764896e7709bc458c815a9bc13c90d0.png

 

Maintaining our current season-form is no longer enough to guarantee us promotion, although it would require a very strong end to the season from both Ipswich and Leeds. The latter are currently showing they can put such a run together, though...

10 teams can no longer catch us, and as long as we match 23rd-placed Sheffield Wednesday's form (just under 1PPG) we're guaranteed playoffs. 

 

If we drop as low as Hull's (6th) season form for our remaining games (1.62 PPG, or 6 wins and 2 draws) then Ipswich and Leeds would match us on their current PPG.

 

NB this is all on season form to date, so doesn't take into account Leeds' impressive recent form.

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StriderHiryu

StriderHiryu

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Lionator said:

Feel anxious, just want @StriderHiryu to tell me it’s all gonna be alright. 

On paper we should be alright, but in recent seasons we've missed out on the top 4 twice, missed out on Europe and then managed to relegate ourselves.

 

So unfortunately I cannot put your mind at ease right now, as I can't put my own!

 

I think after the Southampton game we have pretty reasonable fixtures though and should have enough to get promoted. 6 points is a fair amount of points for Leeds to make up, so we should be Champions, but it does feel a bit like we are limping towards the line and might get overtaken.

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lnkstern

lnkstern

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Posted

Leicester's match week 35 is complete.  Three league losses on the trot is not ideal.

 

Status:  78 of 93 points required for automatic promotion.

 

Current points rate is 2.23/match.  1.36 points/match required for the rest of the season (15 points from 11 matches).

 

We have a 5-point gap over third place (Leeds).

 

We have 83.9% of the required points for automatic promotion after 76.1% of the season.

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Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)

We probably not even close on last 6 form, but I wonder if even top 2 now if I do a mixed seasonal form last 6 form prediction.  Will post it later.  Also I wonder how many gets auto's with the # of defeats we have.

Edited by Chrysalis
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squidsworth

squidsworth

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chrysalis said:

We probably not even close on last 6 form, but I wonder if even top 2 now if I do a mixed seasonal form last 6 form prediction.  Will post it later.

Well, my prediction is by the end of next week we ain't even top and already starting to play catch up, with how many to go? We won't be playing on 16th weekend now either, so could well be spending a few weeks out of the top two if we like it or not .... Things must change for the better this week, or we're done.....

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