The Occasional 2023-24 Math Thread

[coolhandfox]

4 wins out 6 needed, we will be the only team to get a 100 pts.....

[Foxmeister]

The earliest we can be promoted is 20th April

[lnkstern]

Leicester's match number 40 is complete.  We still have a match in hand over the other two (Ipswich and Leeds).

 

Status:  88 of 93 points required for automatic promotion. 

 

Current points rate is 2.20/match.  0.83 points/match required for the rest of the season (5 points from 6 matches).

 

We are in first place and have a 2-point gap over third place (Leeds).

 

We have 94.6% of the required points for automatic promotion after 86.9% of the season.

 

 

P.S.  I acknowledge 93 points may not be sufficient.  We shall see.  I am not changing the target point total until it is demonstrably incorrect.

[Aus Fox]

If we were to finish on 93 points, Ipswich would need two wins and a draw from 5 games.

Leeds would require 3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5.

 

[Xen]

Another required-form update, after a positive weekend making things look a bit healthier.

Obviously, top of the table with a game in hand means our fate is in our hands, but looking at possible points totals for our final 6 games gives a good indication of what might be required. If we finish the season at our current whole-season PPG (needing 4 wins and 2 draws to achieve that) then we're guaranteed automatic promotion and - pending a perfect finish from Ipswich - the title.

If we carry on as we have done in our last 6 games (equivalent to playoff form) then Ipswich need 2.2ppg and Leeds 2.4ppg; both would have to improve both their recent form and overall season form.

Southampton included as they can technically still surpass us, but realistically they're just trying to secure a home playoff second leg.

 

 

Putting this into context with the remaining fixtures of the top 4: Its a bit unscientific with how I've categorised these, but the general gist is easy to pick up. Still lots to play for at both ends of the table so not many with their beach towels out... yet. The likes of Preston might have a shot at playoffs when they face Southampton, but well out of it when they play us for instance. QPR could have a crucial home tie against Leeds in GW45, or safety could be secure by then. Nonetheless, we've got the easiest run in based solely on league position, although our easier opponents on paper are in our away games so that could be a tripping hazard.

If Middlesbrough can beat Hull, or Coventry beat Southampton, then the race for 6th is going to be very tight. WBA will still be looking over their shoulders when we play them, but unlikely to improve on their position.

[Bert]

16 hours ago, lnkstern said:

Leicester's match number 40 is complete.  We still have a match in hand over the other two (Ipswich and Leeds).

 

Status:  88 of 93 points required for automatic promotion. 

 

Current points rate is 2.20/match.  0.83 points/match required for the rest of the season (5 points from 6 matches).

 

We are in first place and have a 2-point gap over third place (Leeds).

 

We have 94.6% of the required points for automatic promotion after 86.9% of the season.

 

 

P.S.  I acknowledge 93 points may not be sufficient.  We shall see.  I am not changing the target point total until it is demonstrably incorrect.

I think and I see you’ve alluded to it, it’s probably going to be around the 98 mark for automatic promotion. 
 

Personally I would expect Leeds to win their remaining home games, but they have seemed to struggle away which they have a few tough games. 
 

Ipswich again, expect them to win their remaining home games it’s going to boil down to how they do in their away games at Coventry and Hull. 
 

 

[harpendenfox]

So with Ipswich and Leeds having five games left, I looked at a five game form table. Leeds and us have 10 points, Ipswich 9. So if they repeat their form, they both finish on 96 points. Meaning we need to win three of our final six games to go up 'by the barest of margins'.

 

And I realise this is all pointless speculation as I put off embarking on my next task at work. You're welcome.

[jayfox26]

Watford are a funny side and their away form isn't terrible, wouldn't surprise me if they sneaked something at Ipswich. Leeds are nailed on to win as Sunderland are garbage so we need to ensure we beat Millwall and then see how the table looks after that. We need to aim to win our next 3 so we don't have too much pressure going into Southampton and Preston, although our final 3 oppositions may not have anything to play for depending on how the next few go. 

 

Anything can happen and there will be twists and turns and after us blowing a 17 point lead, we can't expect or assume anything until mathematically certain and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that it all gets decided on the final day.

Edited 8 April by jayfox26

[CosbehFox]

Watford have won 2 league games for all of 2024. Don’t get your hopes up 

[ramadaone]

8 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

Watford have won 2 league games for all of 2024. Don’t get your hopes up 

But now have a new manager so maybe some hope ?

 

[Aus Fox]

The worst thing you can do at this stage of the season is think any result is a certainty.

[Lillehamring]

12 hours ago, Xen said:

Another required-form update, after a positive weekend making things look a bit healthier.

Obviously, top of the table with a game in hand means our fate is in our hands, but looking at possible points totals for our final 6 games gives a good indication of what might be required. If we finish the season at our current whole-season PPG (needing 4 wins and 2 draws to achieve that) then we're guaranteed automatic promotion and - pending a perfect finish from Ipswich - the title.

If we carry on as we have done in our last 6 games (equivalent to playoff form) then Ipswich need 2.2ppg and Leeds 2.4ppg; both would have to improve both their recent form and overall season form.

Southampton included as they can technically still surpass us, but realistically they're just trying to secure a home playoff second leg.

 

 

Putting this into context with the remaining fixtures of the top 4: Its a bit unscientific with how I've categorised these, but the general gist is easy to pick up. Still lots to play for at both ends of the table so not many with their beach towels out... yet. The likes of Preston might have a shot at playoffs when they face Southampton, but well out of it when they play us for instance. QPR could have a crucial home tie against Leeds in GW45, or safety could be secure by then. Nonetheless, we've got the easiest run in based solely on league position, although our easier opponents on paper are in our away games so that could be a tripping hazard.

If Middlesbrough can beat Hull, or Coventry beat Southampton, then the race for 6th is going to be very tight. WBA will still be looking over their shoulders when we play them, but unlikely to improve on their position.

superb work.

 

So, given that, over the season, leeds and ipswich are averaging 2.1 ppg, it's not unreasonable to think that, all things remaining equal,  10 more points could be enough

[Lillehamring]

11 hours ago, harpendenfox said:

So with Ipswich and Leeds having five games left, I looked at a five game form table. Leeds and us have 10 points, Ipswich 9. So if they repeat their form, they both finish on 96 points. Meaning we need to win three of our final six games to go up 'by the barest of margins'.

 

And I realise this is all pointless speculation as I put off embarking on my next task at work. You're welcome.

perhaps a little more in depth....

 

 

 

 

[Foxmeister]

10 hours ago, ramadaone said:

But now have a new manager so maybe some hope ?

 

It's hard to pick a time to play Watford when they haven't got a new manager.

[Guest leatherhead32]

On 06/04/2024 at 19:47, Foxmeister said:

The earliest we can be promoted is 20th April

thatl do , then get the italian chap to belt a couple out at last game. give him a rep shirt on the house  . if enzo aint itk with him please dont bother with some pop factor cat caller   

[Nod.E]

I think 96 will be the magic number. 8 points from 6 games.

[Guest leatherhead32]

3 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

I think 96 will be the magic number. 8 points from 6 games.

should hit 100 node ?

[FrankieADZ]

On 08/04/2024 at 13:07, CosbehFox said:

Watford have won 2 league games for all of 2024. Don’t get your hopes up 

people said that when they played Leeds, better side for the most part and another day would have won it

[Foxmeister]

Swings required:

Ipswich 15

Leeds 12

Southampton 9

 

[Aus Fox]

So new maximum points totals after tonight.

 

Leicester 103

Ipswich 102

Leeds 99

Southampton 96

 

3 wins guarantees 3rd place, 4 wins guarantees automatic promotion and 5 wins for the league title. 
5 huge games left.

[Foxmeister]

On 09/04/2024 at 22:02, Foxmeister said:

Swings required:

Ipswich 15

Leeds 12

Southampton 9

 

Ipswich now 13

 

100 points for promotion, 101 for the title.

[Aus Fox]

15 minutes ago, Foxmeister said:

Ipswich now 13

 

100 points for promotion, 101 for the title.

Realistically, if we get 100 points, Winning 4/5 I can’t see Ipswich overturning a 10 goal difference with their fixtures remaining. 
100 points should win us the title from here. 

[Aus Fox]

So new maximum points totals after tonight.

 

Leicester 103

Ipswich 100

Leeds 99

Southampton 96

 

3 wins guarantees 3rd place, 4 wins guarantees automatic and should wrap up the league title. 
5 huge games left.

We’ve managed to navigate another round of matches and still sit on top of the league. 
Ipswich next 3 are all against teams needing wins to sneak into the play offs and then finish against a team who may need points to stay up. 4 wins against teams fighting for their lives would be very impressive.

It’s almost impossible at this stage of the season to predict anything, but the 93 quotes for a long time in this thread is looking more and more realistic for autos.

[lnkstern]

I really shouldn't write this, but what the hell.

 

Leicester currently holds the Championship record (19 years) of the highest point total to still be relegated to League One.  It would be so Leicester-ey to set another record as the highest point total to not achieve automatic promotion.

 

How do we manage to end up in these situations?  I mean, I know we can't control the other teams, but damn.

[Motty]

2 points per game has always guaranteed auto promotion from the championship.

So there is a very good chance this will not be the case this season. Think 98 will be champions even if by GD