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lnkstern

The Occasional 2023-24 Math Thread

By lnkstern, in Leicester City Forum

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

Honestly think 90 isnt enough for auto's this year. Leeds form has dropped and they still on track for 95 even with that.  The problem with this season, there is 4 teams on track for a points total that is usually enough for auto's which inevitable will mean the required points for 2nd will be higher than normal.  Although if us and Ipswich can maintain the gap and it becomes mathematically sealed with games to spare then the teams in 3rd and 4th will probably drop form with nothing to play for.

 

League one last season was interesting.

 

 

Hmm not sure. As I say, I think 90-95 points is probably, with the lower end of that range looking most likely. 

 

Leeds/Southampton both on track for 87.8 points. They've dropped 24 points across 22 games and can drop 24 points across their remaining 24 games to finish on 90. Any kind of drop off from either and it'll be less than 90 required. 

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Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Hmm not sure. As I say, I think 90-95 points is probably, with the lower end of that range looking most likely. 

 

Leeds/Southampton both on track for 87.8 points. They've dropped 24 points across 22 games and can drop 24 points across their remaining 24 games to finish on 90. Any kind of drop off from either and it'll be less than 90 required. 

 

I will post another prediction after our game based on last 6 form added to current table.

Edited by Chrysalis
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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Drift said:

Updated point tracker sheet:

image.thumb.png.1477ea3ee6c7dfb999374e915fb7bd00.png

To reach 93 points we needed to reach 55 points around game 27, which we've now achieved at game 22. Currently on course for 115 points based on form so far this season.

Is the club folding next week?

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Lillehamring

Lillehamring

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

But we’ve looked significantly poorer as a side when he’s not been in it.

Not really the point - the point is we haven't relied on him playing, it's not like we're dreadful when he doesn't play.

FWIW - i thought he was completely anonymous against Birmingham.

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lnkstern

lnkstern

Posted
  • Author
Posted

After the victory over Birmingham today, 18 Dec 23:

 

Still using a 93 point target for guaranteed promotion, and 53 points to avoid relegation.

 

Leicester is on 55 points after 22 of 46 matches.  48% of the season has been played.

 

Relegation status:  55 of 53 points required -- relegation avoided.

 

Promotion status:  55 of 93 points required for automatic promotion -- 59% of the required points.

 

We have accumulated points at a rate of 2.50 per match.  We require 1.58 points per match over the remaining 24 matches.

 

We have an 13-point gap over third place (Leeds/Southampton) -- a gap of over four wins.

 

We have 59% of the required points for automatic promotion after 48% of the season.

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Nod.E

Nod.E

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

What's the data/calculation behind the green line then?

Projected total after each game. Games played is on the X axis, and as there is no data for protections after 23 games (since we haven't played them), it flatlines. Guessing it uses PPG season to date and protects the total based on the number of remaining games.

 

Probably not the best illustration of that particular metric, but that's what happens when you try to include a lot of information on the same graph.

 

Not discrediting @Drift btw, I really like it and find it an interesting view of our progress from different angles in a glance. In saying that, maybe using bars for that series would avoid some confusion.

Edited by Nod.E
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Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted

Last 6 PPG table prediction update.

 

---

 

Update from todays games

 

Played 23, remaining 23
Leics 58 Last 6 16 PPG 2.67
Ipswich 52 Last 6 13 PPG 2.2
Leeds 45 Last 6 13 PPG 2.2
Southampton 45 Last 6 14 PPG 2.33

 

Predicted table based on current points and last 6 PPG

 

Leics              119
Ipswich          102
Southampton 99
Leeds              96

Points needed for autos 100

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Motty

Motty

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

Leicester 127

Ipswich 121

Leeds 114

Southampton 114

WBA 105

Hull 105

Watford 103

Norwich 103

Sunderland 102

Cardiff 102

 Middlesbrough 102

Bristol City 101

PNE 101

Blackburn 100

Coventry 99

 

Updates teams maximum possible points this season.

19 wins guarantees promotion at this point. 57 + 58 =115

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ramboacdc

ramboacdc

Posted
Posted

11 more points would get us to the same total as 6th place last season managed. 

 

81 points would have theoretically been enough for automatic promotion last season, meaning we just need 23 more points. Wouldn't want to draw every game between now and May though :sweating:

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lnkstern

lnkstern

Posted
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Posted

After Boxing Day action (24 of 46 matches):

 

Status:  59 of 93 points for automatic promotion.

 

Current points rate is 2.46/match.  1.54 points/match required for the rest of the season.

 

We have an 11-point gap over third place (Southampton).

 

We have 63% of the required points for automatic promotion after 52% of the season.

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Aus Fox

Aus Fox

Posted
Posted

After 24 games, and with a maximum 66 points left to play for, here is everyone’s maximum total points this season:

 

Leicester 125

Ipswich 119

Southampton 114

Leeds 111

WBA 105

Sunderland 102

Hull 102

Bristol City 101

PNE 101

Watford 100

Cardiff 100

Norwich 100

Coventry 99 
Middlesbrough 99

Blackburn 97

Plymouth 94

Swansea 94

Stoke 93

Birmingham City 93

Millwall 92

Huddersfield 91

QPR 86

Sheff Wed 82

Rotherham 82

 

For teams Sunderland (6th) and below, they have to pick up more than a point per game on average over the season to be able to catch us. 

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Motty

Motty

Posted
Posted

After 24 games we have dropped 13 points

Ipswich 18 

Southampton 24 and Leeds 27

If they only drop 10 points for the rest of the season

Then we need to get to 105 to guarantee promotion 110 to be Champions that's 22 or 15 points dropped

Last 12 games we have dropped 10 points as the table below shows only Southampton have gone better, 8 dropped points. If can avoid defeat to Southampton and Ipswich i dont see us dropping off enough to be caught.Screenshot_20231228_183833_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.d511d2fe4898cb2a180ea8e6bdf6d951.jpg

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fuchsntf

fuchsntf

Posted
Posted

This is my  reasoning within

 my process method.. 

 

"Arrogance needs to be explained;

But within my thoughts... 

Confidence speaks for itself. "

 

The top 4,will build a solid gap.. 

Especially Leicester, Varieties

Of Enzo-ball & system will hold

their own, In brackets my play-

Room margin we will have.

Highest top 3- 4 totals, not to

Get automatic promotion.. 

 

Top 10-12, will improve on their

First half results ( slightly), where

Ohers will fall off.. Giving a good

Mix up, still on the cards for the bottom

Half.. 

 

Ipswich.. will plough on, but squad rescources

will see them fall short of the big prize.

They will earn highest plaudits and sympathies

(quite correctly).. 

Southampton,  will carry on with a powerfull turn over of results, quality squad good enough for long periods producing consistent top form

Leeds,  still an exceptional opponent, but their strong belief off-field, will see them fall short of expectations, simply because of 3 better teams in front of them.. Normally their seasons form would of seen them promoted. They could upto Easter jostle with Ipswich & Soton, but inconsistency will catch up with them.. 

WBA, a strong 2nd half, dark horses for play-off final result.

Other hopefulls,  their mis-hits and mixed form during early season cost them dearly, they were all then in catch up mode. Still could upset and be party - poopers to big guns by nicking points off them... M'borough  could still finish on a cup high and have their day.. 

. 

 

 

Leicester 127.................... 117 (111)

S'mpton 114............... ...... 106 (108)

Ipswich 121......................  103 (108)

Leeds 114........................ ..102 (106)

WBA 105..............................84   (90)

M'brough 102......................74.  (70¬)

Norwich 103.........................73  (70¬)

Sunderland.......................... 73. (68¬)

Cardiff 102..........................  72. (68¬)

Hull 105.. .............................72

Watford 103........................  68

 

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Motty

Motty

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

This is my  reasoning within

 my process method.. 

 

"Arrogance needs to be explained;

But within my thoughts... 

Confidence speaks for itself. "

 

The top 4,will build a solid gap.. 

Especially Leicester, Varieties

Of Enzo-ball & system will hold

their own, In brackets my play-

Room margin we will have.

Highest top 3- 4 totals, not to

Get automatic promotion.. 

 

Top 10-12, will improve on their

First half results ( slightly), where

Ohers will fall off.. Giving a good

Mix up, still on the cards for the bottom

Half.. 

 

Ipswich.. will plough on, but squad rescources

will see them fall short of the big prize.

They will earn highest plaudits and sympathies

(quite correctly).. 

Southampton,  will carry on with a powerfull turn over of results, quality squad good enough for long periods producing consistent top form

Leeds,  still an exceptional opponent, but their strong belief off-field, will see them fall short of expectations, simply because of 3 better teams in front of them.. Normally their seasons form would of seen them promoted. They could upto Easter jostle with Ipswich & Soton, but inconsistency will catch up with them.. 

WBA, a strong 2nd half, dark horses for play-off final result.

Other hopefulls,  their mis-hits and mixed form during early season cost them dearly, they were all then in catch up mode. Still could upset and be party - poopers to big guns by nicking points off them... M'borough  could still finish on a cup high and have their day.. 

. 

 

 

Leicester 127.................... 117 (111)

S'mpton 114............... ...... 106 (108)

Ipswich 121......................  103 (108)

Leeds 114........................ ..102 (106)

WBA 105..............................84   (90)

M'brough 102......................74.  (70¬)

Norwich 103.........................73  (70¬)

Sunderland.......................... 73. (68¬)

Cardiff 102..........................  72. (68¬)

Hull 105.. .............................72

Watford 103........................  68

 

Hi I think your max figures are from match 23 conclusion as we can only get 125 and Ipswich 119 and Leeds 111

 Like your assessment but think 1 team from mid to bottom half will make a charge.

 

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coolhandfox

coolhandfox

Posted
Posted (edited)

The key is our own performance now.

 

For someone to catch up over 22 games with an 11 point lead they have to out perform us by 0.5 points per game. 

 

Our current PPG is 2.45.

 

OUR PPG  - THEY NEED PPG

2.45             2.95 

2.35             2.85

2.25             2.75

2.15             2.65

2.05             2.55

1.95             2.45

1.85             2.35

 

Keeping in mine Ipswich have been brilliant and broken records they have only managed 2.21 ppg over 24 games 

 

Leeds have 1.87 for the 24.

 

Southampton have gone at 2 for the 24, even in the 16 game unbeaten run then have only managed 2.37 mark.

 

Anything over 2 ppg in the next 22 we are promoted easily.

 

Anything above that we walk the league.

 

I'd be surprised if anyone other then us or Ipswich get into the late 90s

 

 

 

Edited by coolhandfox
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