The Occasional 2023-24 Math Thread

[lnkstern]

This thread will be focused on the math of Leicester City's standing in the 2023-24 season with regards to promotion and relegation.

 

In 19 previous seasons of the Championship, 93 points guaranteed promotion, and 53 points always avoided relegation to League One.  I did not analyze all 100+ seasons of the Second Division.

 

As of the results from 13 December 2023:

 

Leicester has 52 points.

 

21 matches have been played (out of 46 total matches in the season) -- 46% of the season has been played.

 

Relegation status:  52 of 53 points required to avoid relegation -- 98% of the required points.

 

Promotion status:  52 of 93 points required for automatic promotion -- 56% of the required points.

 

LCFC have accumulated points at a rate of 2.5 per match.  LCFC require 1.6 points per match over the remaining 25 matches (required points rate).

 

And once again, LCFC have an 11-point gap over third place (Leeds).  Effectively, Leeds will have to be four wins better than LCFC over the next 25 matches to overtake.

 

LCFC has 56% of the required points for automatic promotion after 46% of the season -- well ahead of schedule.

 

Things are looking good thus far!

[Motty]

We gave dropped 17.5% of the available points

If we maintained that throughout the season we will be pretty close to 114 points

[Tuna]

Burnley had 41 points this time last season, having played the same amount of games

Edited 13 December 2023 by Tuna

[TrentFox]

If we take 4 points from next two, we’ll reach the halfway mark on 56. If 93 is the threshold, we’d need 37 more points…… that’s 12 wins , (ish), from last 23 games ….. that means we could almost get away with losing every other game and still go up! 😳😳😳

[Nick]

I had £3.50 on Millwall winning at HT and Leicester at FT @32-1. 
 

That’s the only math I’ll be doing today.

[wardyfox86]

Just looking into it further, I think there's a chance we may have an outlier season.

 

So Burnley had the same number of points as Leeds do after 21 games, before kicking on and taking 60 points in their remaining 25 matches, including a 10-game winning run, to finish on 101 points.

 

Are Leeds likely to replicate that? No. But do they have the means to do so? Absolutely.

 

Ipswich are certainly capable of amassing over 100 points, you could be looking at 96-98 being required for automatics this year. Unlikely but it'd be so Leicester to finish 3rd on 95 points.

Edited 14 December 2023 by wardyfox86

[Swarles Barkley]

11 minutes ago, wardyfox86 said:

Just looking into it further, I think there's a chance we may have an outlier season.

 

So Burnley had the same number of points as Leeds do after 21 games, before kicking on and taking 60 points in their remaining 25 matches, including a 10-game winning run, to finish on 101 points.

 

Are Leeds likely to replace that? No. But are they have the means to do so? Absolutely.

 

Ipswich are certainly capable of amassing over 100 points, you could be looking at 96-98 being required for automatics this year. Unlikely but it'd be so Leicester to finish 3rd on 95 points.

Just out of curiosity had a look and this would involve Leeds only being allowed to drop 7 points for the rest of the season. That would be crazy (they have already dropped 22)

Edited 14 December 2023 by Swarles Barkley

[Rsswmu]

2 hours ago, Swarles Barkley said:

Just out of curiosity had a look and this would involve Leeds only being allowed to drop 7 points for the rest of the season. That would be crazy (they have already dropped 22)

Think your math may be off a bit they can drop 15 of the final 75 to hit 101. Still a tall ask but doable. We can drop 26 points out of the final 25 games to hit that total which we should be able to do.

Edited 14 December 2023 by Rsswmu

[FosseSpark]

I hate to be an old stick-in-the-mud.

But it's ****ing 'Maths', not 'Math'....

How much Netflix are we watching that no one has immediately pointed this out.

 

 

[Bordersfox]

24 minutes ago, FosseSpark said:

I hate to be an old stick-in-the-mud.

But it's ****ing 'Maths', not 'Math'....

How much Netflix are we watching that no one has immediately pointed this out.

 

 

The OP is based in Colorado, perhaps that is why?  Whether we like it or not the preferred usage in America is Math.  Take a breath and move on friend.  

[FosseSpark]

1 hour ago, Bordersfox said:

The OP is based in Colorado, perhaps that is why?  Whether we like it or not the preferred usage in America is Math.  Take a breath and move on friend.  

Couldn't give a monkeys, it's Maths.

 

[CosbehFox]

9 hours ago, Tuna said:

Burnley had 41 points this time last season, having played the same amount of games

And yet George Elek's tongue was firmly up their arse 

[kingcarr21]

1 hour ago, FosseSpark said:

Couldn't give a monkeys, it's Maths.

 

I think you will find its pronounced 'Fosse Park' 

[Footballwipe]

Imagine living a life so carefree you have time to get het up about how people say a word. Even when it's how they've been conditioned to say the word that's different to you. Jealous.

 

Math. Math. Math.

Edited 14 December 2023 by Footballwipe

[Spudulike]

5 minutes ago, Footballwipe said:

Imagine living a life so carefree you have time to get het up about how people say a word. Even when it's how they've been conditioned to say the word that's different to you. Jealous.

 

Math. Math. Math.

Not sure that anyone is getting het up. Call it what you want. I'll stick with maths thanks. 

[boots60]

I will be pedantic 

 

It is Mathematics

[Swarles Barkley]

6 hours ago, Rsswmu said:

Think your math may be off a bit they can drop 15 of the final 75 to hit 101. Still a tall ask but doable. We can drop 26 points out of the final 25 games to hit that total which we should be able to do.

Doh

[bmt]

8 hours ago, wardyfox86 said:

Just looking into it further, I think there's a chance we may have an outlier season.

 

So Burnley had the same number of points as Leeds do after 21 games, before kicking on and taking 60 points in their remaining 25 matches, including a 10-game winning run, to finish on 101 points.

 

Are Leeds likely to replace that? No. But are they have the means to do so? Absolutely.

 

Ipswich are certainly capable of amassing over 100 points, you could be looking at 96-98 being required for automatics this year. Unlikely but it'd be so Leicester to finish 3rd on 95 points.

To be fair, last year's league one...

 

[filbertuk]

Maths debate …..

[st albans fox]

Look at it this way

leeds would do v well to take 2 points per game for the rest of the season 

 

that gets them to 91 

 

So we need 40 points from 25 games 

 

thats roughy one win in two 

 

do you think we’ll manage that ??

[ramboacdc]

11 hours ago, lnkstern said:

I did not analyze all 100+ seasons of the Second Division.

 

 

Pfft...you call that dedication?! 

[HitchinFox]

8 hours ago, wardyfox86 said:

Just looking into it further, I think there's a chance we may have an outlier season.

 

So Burnley had the same number of points as Leeds do after 21 games, before kicking on and taking 60 points in their remaining 25 matches, including a 10-game winning run, to finish on 101 points.

 

Are Leeds likely to replace that? No. But are they have the means to do so? Absolutely.

 

Ipswich are certainly capable of amassing over 100 points, you could be looking at 96-98 being required for automatics this year. Unlikely but it'd be so Leicester to finish 3rd on 95 points.

Absolutely.

 

It is more than possible – perhaps even probable – that four teams end up with 90+ points this season (us, Ipswich, Leeds, Soton). 

 

Us being us, we'll be at Wembley on 26 May. 


 

 

 

[davieG]

15 minutes ago, boots60 said:

I will be pedantic 

 

It is Mathematics

Or is it Arithmetics 

[mozartfox]

So the arithmetic. How are Leeds and Ipswich affected by Afcon? 

[Aus Fox]

19 minutes ago, mozartfox said:

So the arithmetic. How are Leeds and Ipswich affected by Afcon? 

Leeds aren’t at all, Ipswich have two big players away - Luongo with Australia and Morsy with Egypt - those two make their midfield tick over.