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lnkstern

The Occasional 2023-24 Math Thread

By lnkstern, in Leicester City Forum

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Happy Fox

Happy Fox

Posted
Posted

3 wins and 2 draws required for the title.

 

Can we get that?

 

We have drawn the fewest games, so it doesn’t seem likely but if we are in a losing position we must get a draw at a minimum.

 

I would hope we get three wins away at Plymouth, Home to WBA and Home to Blackburn and draw the other two Preston away and Southampton at home. 

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STEVIE B

STEVIE B

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39 minutes ago, Happy Fox said:

3 wins and 2 draws required for the title.

 

Can we get that?

 

We have drawn the fewest games, so it doesn’t seem likely but if we are in a losing position we must get a draw at a minimum.

 

I would hope we get three wins away at Plymouth, Home to WBA and Home to Blackburn and draw the other two Preston away and Southampton at home. 

If Leeds win their last 4, they get 99 pts & at the moment have a better goal difference. 3 wins + 2 draws gives us 99.

So, we need 12 to be guaranteed promotion, 13 for the title as Ipswich can get to 100 pts, but have an inferior GD. 

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teblin

teblin

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22 minutes ago, STEVIE B said:

If Leeds win their last 4, they get 99 pts & at the moment have a better goal difference. 3 wins + 2 draws gives us 99.

So, we need 12 to be guaranteed promotion, 13 for the title as Ipswich can get to 100 pts, but have an inferior GD. 

4 wins to win it on GD. As we will have improved our GD if we win 4 unless we get hammered in the other one.

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teblin

teblin

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8 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

We've only won 4 of our last 10 games in the league, we're not suddenly going to win 4 out of 5.

We are more that capable of doing so. But form doesn’t look great. 

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Aus Fox

Aus Fox

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2 hours ago, ealingfox said:

We've only won 4 of our last 10 games in the league, we're not suddenly going to win 4 out of 5.

Form is completely irrelevant, prior to those 10 games we might have said we’ve only lost 4 out of 28 games we’re not suddenly going to lose 5 of our next 10, but hey here we are.

Past performance is never a reliable predictor of future performance.

We have 5 stand alone games left to play and anything is possible. 

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Foxmeister

Foxmeister

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7 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

Form is completely irrelevant, prior to those 10 games we might have said we’ve only lost 4 out of 28 games we’re not suddenly going to lose 5 of our next 10, but hey here we are.

Past performance is never a reliable predictor of future performance.

We have 5 stand alone games left to play and anything is possible. 

I don't suppose you're a financial advisor are you?

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Foxmeister

Foxmeister

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7 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

Form is completely irrelevant, prior to those 10 games we might have said we’ve only lost 4 out of 28 games we’re not suddenly going to lose 5 of our next 10, but hey here we are.

Past performance is never a reliable predictor of future performance.

We have 5 stand alone games left to play and anything is possible. 

Definitely, Friday is a huge game, we can put pressure on the others and will be short odds for automatic with 3 home games out of 4 left.

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CheeseHead

CheeseHead

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13 hours ago, Happy Fox said:

3 wins and 2 draws required for the title.

 

Can we get that?

 

We have drawn the fewest games, so it doesn’t seem likely but if we are in a losing position we must get a draw at a minimum.

 

I would hope we get three wins away at Plymouth, Home to WBA and Home to Blackburn and draw the other two Preston away and Southampton at home. 

As a fan, I would hope we win all 5!

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Matt

Matt

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So I think i'm right in saying if Leeds lose against Middlesbrough on Monday and if we beat Southampton we're promoted?

 

Does Southampton losing today change much or add new equations?

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StanSP

StanSP

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4 minutes ago, Matt said:

So I think i'm right in saying if Leeds lose against Middlesbrough on Monday and if we beat Southampton we're promoted?

 

Does Southampton losing today change much or add new equations?

First paragraph is correct. Southampton loses today just fcxks up their chances more to finish top 2 after their run of form they had. It didn't really affect us them losing today. 

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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
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Update

 

1. Leicester P 43 GD 42 Pts 91

2. Ipswich P43 GD 32 Pts 89
3. Leeds P 43 GD 42 Pts 87
4. Saints P 43 GD 29 Pts 84

 

RUN-IN SEQUENCE (league position of opponent / what they are likely to be playing for

 

1) Mon 22nd April

20:00 Boro (9th / very outside chance of play offs) v Leeds

 

2) Tues 23rd April
20:00 Leicester v Southampton

 

3) Fri 26th
20:00 QPR (19th / very outside chance of relegation) v Leeds
Sat 27th April
15:00 Saints v Stoke (17th / very outside chance of relegation)
20:00 Hull (7th / outside chance of playoffs) v Ipswich
Mon 29th
20:00 PNE (10th/ nothing) v Leicester

 

4) Tues 30th April
20:00 Coventry (8th / possibly nothing, outside chance of play offs) v Ipswich

 

5) Sat 4th May
12.30 Ipswich v Huddersfield (22nd / relegation)
12.30 Leeds v Southampton 
12.30 Leicester v Blackburn (19th / possibly nothing, outside chance of relegation)

 

In non top 4 fixtures Cov and Hull play each other before they before play Ipswich, it will almost definitely mean one if not both won't have anything to play for ahead of Ipswich.

 

Of course Ipswich, Leeds and Southampton pdropped points against teams with nothing to play for when they drop points recently so who the fvck knows?

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lnkstern

lnkstern

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As of today (Sunday, 21 Apr 24), the top four Championship teams have all played 43 matches.  After a couple of disappointing losses, Leicester won their most recent.

 

Status:  91 of 93 points required for automatic promotion. 

 

Current points rate is 2.12/match.  0.33 points/match required for the rest of the season (2 points from 3 matches).

 

We are in first place and have a 4-point gap over third place (Leeds).

 

We have 97.8% of the required points for automatic promotion after 93.5% of the season.

 

 

P.S.  I acknowledge 93 points may not be sufficient.  We shall see.  I am not changing the target point total until it is demonstrably incorrect.

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Chelmofox

Chelmofox

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1 minute ago, lnkstern said:

As of today (Sunday, 21 Apr 24), the top four Championship teams have all played 43 matches.  After a couple of disappointing losses, Leicester won their most recent.

 

Status:  91 of 93 points required for automatic promotion. 

 

Current points rate is 2.12/match.  0.33 points/match required for the rest of the season (2 points from 3 matches).

 

We are in first place and have a 4-point gap over third place (Leeds).

 

We have 97.8% of the required points for automatic promotion after 93.5% of the season.

 

 

P.S.  I acknowledge 93 points may not be sufficient.  We shall see.  I am not changing the target point total until it is demonstrably incorrect.

Oooh you tough b@stard. 

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The Doctor

The Doctor

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On 11/04/2024 at 00:34, lnkstern said:

I really shouldn't write this, but what the hell.

 

Leicester currently holds the Championship record (19 years) of the highest point total to still be relegated to League One.

No we don't.

 

07/08

22nd Leicester 52pts

 

12/13

22nd Peterborough 54pts

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lnkstern

lnkstern

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1 hour ago, The Doctor said:

No we don't.

 

07/08

22nd Leicester 52pts

 

12/13

22nd Peterborough 54pts

 

Thank you for the correction.  I am also not infallible, as it turns out. :D

 

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