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lnkstern

The Occasional 2023-24 Math Thread

By lnkstern, in Leicester City Forum

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Chelmofox

Chelmofox

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, indierich06 said:

My brain isn't working this morning. What do we need to guarantee promotion? By my maths, if we beat Southampton and Preston, Leeds can't catch us regardless of whether they win the rest of their games.

2 wins guarantees it, assuming everyone else wins all their games.

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Aus Fox

Aus Fox

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9 minutes ago, indierich06 said:

My brain isn't working this morning. What do we need to guarantee promotion? By my maths, if we beat Southampton and Preston, Leeds can't catch us regardless of whether they win the rest of their games.

We win 2 games and draw one, we’re Champions!

We win 2 games we're promoted.

We win 1, draw 1 and lose 1 we’re up if Leeds drop a point or Ipswich fail to win one.

We win 1 we lose 2 and we’re up if either Leeds lose a game or Ipswich lose 1 and draw 1.

We draw 2 and lose one, we’re up if Leeds lose 1 game by a big margin than they win one or if Ipswich win 1, draw 1 and lose 1.

We draw 1 lose 2 and we’re up if Leeds get no better than 2 points, Ipswich win 1 and lose 2.

If we lose all 3 we are up if Leeds lose their last two and Ipswich get no more than 2 points.

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indierich06

indierich06

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

We win 2 games and draw one, we’re Champions!

We win 2 games we're promoted.

We win 1, draw 1 and lose 1 we’re up if Leeds drop a point or Ipswich fail to win one.

We win 1 we lose 2 and we’re up if either Leeds lose a game or Ipswich lose 1 and draw 1.

We draw 2 and lose one, we’re up if Leeds lose 1 game by a big margin than they win one or if Ipswich win 1, draw 1 and lose 1.

We draw 1 lose 2 and we’re up if Leeds get no better than 2 points, Ipswich win 1 and lose 2.

If we lose all 3 we are up if Leeds lose their last two and Ipswich get no more than 2 points.

This is brilliant, thanks!

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leatherhead32

leatherhead32

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

We win 2 games and draw one, we’re Champions!

We win 2 games we're promoted.

We win 1, draw 1 and lose 1 we’re up if Leeds drop a point or Ipswich fail to win one.

We win 1 we lose 2 and we’re up if either Leeds lose a game or Ipswich lose 1 and draw 1.

We draw 2 and lose one, we’re up if Leeds lose 1 game by a big margin than they win one or if Ipswich win 1, draw 1 and lose 1.

We draw 1 lose 2 and we’re up if Leeds get no better than 2 points, Ipswich win 1 and lose 2.

If we lose all 3 we are up if Leeds lose their last two and Ipswich get no more than 2 points.

if you live in aus get back here mate and move in downing st next door to the latest dingbat . easy to understand this so cheers.  id av just said were up barring a disaster. :schmike:

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Aus Fox

Aus Fox

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Two wins = Champions 

One win and One draw = Champions 

One win and one loss = promotion (Champions of Ipswich drop any points)

two draws = promotion (if Leeds don’t win their games by a total of 5 goals or more)

One draw and one loss = promotion if Leeds drop any points of Ipswich get less than 2 wins.

2 defeats = promotion if Ipswich get less than 2 wins or Leeds drop any points( providing there’s not a 5 goal swing in gd.

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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
Posted (edited)

THE RUN IN

 

Update after Cov v Hull

 

1. Leicester P 44 GD 47 Pts 94

2. Leeds P44 GD 43 Pts 90

3. Ipswich P43 GD 32 Pts 89

 

RUN-IN SEQUENCE (league position of opponent / what they are likely to be playing for

 

1) Fri 26th April

20:00 QPR (19th / outside chance of relegation) v Leeds

 

Sat 27th
20:00 Hull (7th / outside chance of playoffs) v Ipswich

 

Mon 29th
20:00 PNE (10th / nothing) v Leicester

 

2) Tues 30th
20:00 Coventry (8th / almost definitely nothing) v Ipswich

 

3) Sat 4th May
12.30 Ipswich v Huddersfield (22nd / relegation battle)


12.30 Leeds v Southampton (4th / nothing)


12.30 Leicester v Blackburn (19th / outside chance of relegation)

Edited by Nalis
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lnkstern

lnkstern

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We have exceeded the 93 point threshold for automatic promotion!  Current point total is 94 with two matches remaining.

 

Unfortunately, promotion is not yet guaranteed.  @Aus Fox has already broken down the scenarios for us.

 

However, I remain optimistic!

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foxpleasure

foxpleasure

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Foxmeister said:

If Ipswich don't win Saturday we will be promoted and champions with a win at Preston.

Surely that's not right. Ipswich have 3 games left so even if they lose on Sat they could still finish with 95 points 

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Finnegan

Finnegan

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Two absolutely rough fixtures for Ipswich coming up in their current form. 

 

Strong possibility we already have enough points to be honest. 

 

Absolutely need to be Champions though and would love to go up on a proper run so let's win both please chaps.

 

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StanSP

StanSP

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, foxpleasure said:

Surely that's not right. Ipswich have 3 games left so even if they lose on Sat they could still finish with 95 points 

Yeah but if we win we go to 97...

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coolhandfox

coolhandfox

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

Two absolutely rough fixtures for Ipswich coming up in their current form. 

 

Strong possibility we already have enough points to be honest. 

 

Absolutely need to be Champions though and would love to go up on a proper run so let's win both please chaps.

 

Be nice to win the last 2 and hit a 100pts

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Matt

Matt

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I'm not saying we're up until we're up and I don't want to pre-empt anything but should we be promoted this weekend, whether that be Leeds losing, or us winning on Monday, or both, what are the chances of it going to the last game on the season to win the league?

 

Basically, I want promotion in the bag this weekend at the earliest opportunity but I don't wanna win the league until the last game of the season so we've got something on it, is it possible? Does that make sense or is it quite sadistic? lol 

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Foxmeister

Foxmeister

Posted
Posted (edited)

There are 81 permutations for results between us and Leeds left.

 

75 of those will see us finish above them, 3 will mean we finish below them and 3 will see it go to goal difference.

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Foxmeister

Foxmeister

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Matt said:

I'm not saying we're up until we're up and I don't want to pre-empt anything but should we be promoted this weekend, whether that be Leeds losing, or us winning on Monday, or both, what are the chances of it going to the last game on the season to win the league?

 

Basically, I want promotion in the bag this weekend at the earliest opportunity but I don't wanna win the league until the last game of the season so we've got something on it, is it possible? Does that make sense or is it quite sadistic? lol 

If Ipswich win Saturday and Tuesday it'll go to the last day.

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cruzFOX

cruzFOX

Posted
Posted

Anything can still happen. We should expect Leeds and Ipswich to win all their games ‘until’ they don’t. They are both under immense pressure now! Picture will be a lot clearer after this weekend 😉

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StanSP

StanSP

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Matt said:

I'm not saying we're up until we're up and I don't want to pre-empt anything but should we be promoted this weekend, whether that be Leeds losing, or us winning on Monday, or both, what are the chances of it going to the last game on the season to win the league?

 

Basically, I want promotion in the bag this weekend at the earliest opportunity but I don't wanna win the league until the last game of the season so we've got something on it, is it possible? Does that make sense or is it quite sadistic? lol 

Quite likely.

 

All it needs is Leeds or Ipswich to win their next game and us not to beat Preston. 

 

Scenario 1

Leeds win vs QPR = 93pts

Ipswich win vs Hull = 92pts

Leicester draw vs Preston = 95pts

 

Therefore we'd have to draw and hope Leeds don't win by 4 on final day to be crowned champions, or just beat Blackburn anyway. 

 

Throw in Ipswich beating Coventry in midweek and that'd leave them on 95pts, meaning we'd have to win regardless on the final day. 

 

Scenario 2

Leeds draw vs QPR = 92 pts

Ipswich draw vs Hull and Coventry = 91 pts

Leicester lose vs Preston = 94pts

 

So we'd have to draw vs Blackburn to take Ipswich out the equation, but hope Leeds don't hammer Southampton by 3 or more goals to overtake us. 

 

Scenario 3

Leeds lose vs QPR = 90 pts 

Ipswich take 4 from Hull & Cov = 93pts

Leicester lose/draw vs Preston = 94/95pts

 

Therefore we just have to worry about Ipswich, and match their result to secure 1st.

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