Official Teams who cannot Mathematically catch us thread

[jayfox26]

1 minute ago, Pita said:

What matters is when second and third place can’t catch us 

No shit sherlock, but this thread is just a bit of fun. 

[Vacamion]

 

I'm just here to say I frickin LOVE it when we have this thread.  

 

 

[FoyleFox]

3 minutes ago, Vacamion said:

 

I'm just here to say I frickin LOVE it when we have this thread.  

 

 

Great to have it back. No one did one last year, which was disappointing...

[skmanuk]

2 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

There’s a million threads on here with speculation and what if we drop points…

 

This one is only for certainties! Even if you can get level on points with us and we have a 50 goal better GD, you don’t get in this thread. Mathematically certainty only.

Your previously typically antipodean post seems to have disappeared 

[Gamble92]

2 hours ago, Vacamion said:

 

I'm just here to say I frickin LOVE it when we have this thread.  

 

 

Apart from last year when it just read Southampton with about 5 games to go 😭

[Aus Fox]

2 hours ago, skmanuk said:

Your previously typically antipodean post seems to have disappeared 

Can you unpack this post for me please, I’m really not sure what any of it means? 

[MalletFox]

5 hours ago, skmanuk said:

Perhaps more interesting than who mathematically can't catch us is who has a realistically chance.

 

If we maintain the current rate of 2.4 Points per game then nobody can.

 

If we drop to 2 points per game then only Leeds/Southampton/Ipswich mathematically can (assumes they win every game, very unlikely)

 

Even if we dropped to 1 point per game then it still is only the chasing 3 that have a realistic chance so effectively play-offs are guaranteed.

You need to update Southampton’s points my friend. They’re on 64pts from 30 games.

[Gamble92]

[Sly]

1. Rotherham

2. Sheffield Wednesday

3. Queens Park Rangers

4. …..

 

If we keep winning, we should start to add to list list in quick succession now.

 

We might be able to add Huddlesfield, Stoke, Birmingham and Millwall next weekend.

[HighPeakFox]

This thread needs finioshing... . 

[jayfox26]

I honestly think that if we lost every game between now and the end of the season, we'd still finish in the play offs. 

[Sly]

5 minutes ago, jayfox26 said:

I honestly think that if we lost every game between now and the end of the season, we'd still finish in the play offs. 

Agree. 
 

History tells us that 70 points is the number to guarantee it. With the top 4 potentially all being over 85 points this season, that number will be lower I’d imagine. 
 

67 - 68ish is what 8th place will finish on. 

[Sly]

9 minutes ago, jayfox26 said:

I honestly think that if we lost every game between now and the end of the season, we'd still finish in the play offs. 

In fact, I think the lowest we could realistically finish is 5th at this point, if we lost every game. 
 

West Brom have averaged 1.6 points per game this season. If they continue that, they’ll get to 75 points. 
 

If we keep up our average points per game, no one is catching us and we will catch us.

 

I think we’ll be the only team to surpass the 100 point mark. 

[rugbyblue]

You know.....if you spend Saturday nights and indeed all of your spare time working out mathematical points formulas and studying football league tables for hypothetical situations, the chances of getting a girlfriend are slim at best 🤣

Edited 11 February by rugbyblue

[Nalis]

 

4 hours ago, Sly said:

1. Rotherham

2. Sheffield Wednesday

3. Queens Park Rangers

4. …..

 

If we keep winning, we should start to add to list list in quick succession now.

 

We might be able to add Huddlesfield, Stoke, Birmingham and Millwall next weekend.

Love the days we can add multiple teams in one go

[Sly]

9 minutes ago, rugbyblue said:

You know.....if you spend Saturday nights and indeed all of your spare time working out mathematical points formulas and studying football league tables for hypothetical situations, the chances of getting a girlfriend are slim at best 🤣

Good job I’m already married 

[cambridgefox]

8 minutes ago, rugbyblue said:

You know.....if you spend Saturday nights and indeed all of your spare time working out mathematical points formulas and studying football league tables for hypothetical situations, the chances of getting a girlfriend are slim at best 🤣

How are your mathematical points formulas going? 😂

[Wymsey]

Can just sadly imagine certain fans, even if we are champions, still moan about the squad or club to some extent.

Edited 11 February by Wymsey

[HighPeakFox]

1 hour ago, Sly said:

Good job I’m already married 

Not for much longer... 

[sylofox]

The reality is only 3 teams can catch us.

 

West brom have to take 27pts more than us in 16 games. That's really not likely.

Ipswich  need 16pts in 16 games and not in good form so not likely.

Leeds need 13pts in 15 games possible yes likely not.

Southampton need 9pts in 16 games possible yes.

 

That's looking at current and season form so far. Injuries and suspensions could play a huge part yes. But the likelihood of any team below Ipswich catching us is not going to happen.

 

The odds of it happening would probably make our 5000/1 prem win odds look stingy as fvck.

 

 

Safe bet but if anyone below Ipswich finish above us I'll put £100 into UFS tefo fund.

[skmanuk]

14 hours ago, MalletFox said:

You need to update Southampton’s points my friend. They’re on 64pts from 30 games.

 

 

13 minutes ago, sylofox said:

The reality is only 3 teams can catch us.

 

West brom have to take 27pts more than us in 16 games. That's really not likely.

Ipswich  need 16pts in 16 games and not in good form so not likely.

Leeds need 13pts in 15 games possible yes likely not.

Southampton need 9pts in 16 games possible yes.

 

That's looking at current and season form so far. Injuries and suspensions could play a huge part yes. But the likelihood of any team below Ipswich catching us is not going to happen.

 

The odds of it happening would probably make our 5000/1 prem win odds look stingy as fvck.

 

 

Safe bet but if anyone below Ipswich finish above us I'll put £100 into UFS tefo fund.

Spot on, even if we only acieve 1 point/game on the run in, the teams circled in red have no chance of achieving their points/game target, just leaving the 3 behind us with an outside chance..

 

 

[Xen]

I've posted a top-6 version of this a couple times now but decided to extend it to the whole league, and just as I finished it I've seen @skmanuk's work which is very similar. But still, here's which teams wouldn't be able to catch us (and what they'd require to do so if possible) if we matched their season-form for the rest of the season.

 

Xs are teams which wouldn't be able to catch us. Italics are where the required PPG for a team to catch us is less than their current season-form.

 

Reading across, if we maintain our current form then only Southampton are able to catch us and would require a near-perfect run to do so (2.96 ppg in their remaining fixtures).

At the other end of the scale, if we didn't pick up a single point then we'd still be safe from relegation. Even with us standing still, everyone from Coventry and below would have to improve on their season form so far in order to catch up.

Reality is that even a catastrophic collapse from this point would still see us pick up points. 1.5PPG (Hull's form, 8th) would see us safely in top 4, 1.2PPG (Plymouth, 15th) guarantees us top 6, and 1.0PPG (Huddersfield, 21st) guarantees top-10, although Norwich and Preston would both have to have perfect seasons but play each other.

[HarryDee8]

For a giggle, if we lost all our games from now on, what's the lowest we can finish?

Edited 11 February by HarryDee8

[HighPeakFox]

5 minutes ago, HarryDee8 said:

For a giggle, if we lost all our games from now on, what's the lowest we can finish?

In practical terms, probably 6th. Not sure of the theoretically accurate answer.

[HarryDee8]

Wow that's still the play offs. Minimum target achieved