Official Teams who cannot Mathematically catch us thread

[Xen]

1 hour ago, HarryDee8 said:

For a giggle, if we lost all our games from now on, what's the lowest we can finish?

In theory, after 46 games the table could look like:

 

That's taking into account all the games against each other, trying to minimise each team's total to 75pts going down the (current) table in order. Bit unscientific and there are definitely some choices that would maybe allow Millwall to sneak ahead of us as well*, but by my reckoning the worst we can mathematically do is 17th (given a perfect set of results over the next ~180 Championship games!)

 

 

*This isn't saying that Millwall can't catch us, but if they do then it would mean one of the other sides drops those points and wouldn't. So not quite what the thread is about, but the same gist!

Edited 11 February by Xen

[ealingfox]

1 hour ago, Xen said:

In theory, after 46 games the table could look like:

 

That's taking into account all the games against each other, trying to minimise each team's total to 75pts going down the (current) table in order. Bit unscientific and there are definitely some choices that would maybe allow Millwall to sneak ahead of us as well*, but by my reckoning the worst we can mathematically do is 17th (given a perfect set of results over the next ~180 Championship games!)

 

 

*This isn't saying that Millwall can't catch us, but if they do then it would mean one of the other sides drops those points and wouldn't. So not quite what the thread is about, but the same gist!

 

I'll be fuming if this happens 

[HarryDee8]

1 hour ago, Xen said:

In theory, after 46 games the table could look like:

 

That's taking into account all the games against each other, trying to minimise each team's total to 75pts going down the (current) table in order. Bit unscientific and there are definitely some choices that would maybe allow Millwall to sneak ahead of us as well*, but by my reckoning the worst we can mathematically do is 17th (given a perfect set of results over the next ~180 Championship games!)

 

 

*This isn't saying that Millwall can't catch us, but if they do then it would mean one of the other sides drops those points and wouldn't. So not quite what the thread is about, but the same gist!

Southampton beat us and the rest to the title by 1 point 🤣🤣

[HereBeFoxes]

4 hours ago, HighPeakFox said:

In practical terms, probably 6th. Not sure of the theoretically accurate answer.

If one maximises the points simplistically for the remaining fixtures for the 9 teams below us, giving wins to the lower placed when they play each other, we can come tenth.  It’s only a point or two to 12th from there so I suspect (but haven’t modelled it yet) that donating a few points from teams well above that to the teams in 11th and 12th could drop us to 12th.  
 

Startlingly unlikely though, as it starts with the premise that we lose every remaining game. 
 

Will refine the model over the next few days to se how low we can go. 
 

e2a: oh I see  Xen has already done this, and we can get to 17th. 

Edited 11 February by HereBeFoxes

[FoxinNotts]

I think we'll win 7, draw 7 and lose 1, in our last 15 matches

[Number 6]

If we performed like Rotherham for the remainder of the season we'd be projected to finish on 84 points.

 

If everyone else performed like Southampton for the remainder then only Southampton, Leeds, and Ipswich would be projected to beat that points total.

 

This tallies pretty well with the final standings last season as we'd have enough points already for 4th. 

 

All moot anyway, we're winning the league.

[Tommy G]

I think we need 92 points, possibly 95 max to go up. That means 6 wins - 6 wins out of 15 games. Time to start planning for next season. 

[Aus Fox]

Welcome to the list Huddersfield and Stoke 😊 

1. Rotherham

2. Sheffield Wednesday

3. Queens Park Rangers

4. Huddersfield Town

5. Stoke City

[Sly]

We might be able to add quite a few to this list by Sunday night.

 

Millwall, Swansea, Birmingham & Blackburn ….

[Foxmeister]

On 11/02/2024 at 16:17, Xen said:

I've posted a top-6 version of this a couple times now but decided to extend it to the whole league, and just as I finished it I've seen @skmanuk's work which is very similar. But still, here's which teams wouldn't be able to catch us (and what they'd require to do so if possible) if we matched their season-form for the rest of the season.

 

Xs are teams which wouldn't be able to catch us. Italics are where the required PPG for a team to catch us is less than their current season-form.

 

Reading across, if we maintain our current form then only Southampton are able to catch us and would require a near-perfect run to do so (2.96 ppg in their remaining fixtures).

At the other end of the scale, if we didn't pick up a single point then we'd still be safe from relegation. Even with us standing still, everyone from Coventry and below would have to improve on their season form so far in order to catch up.

Reality is that even a catastrophic collapse from this point would still see us pick up points. 1.5PPG (Hull's form, 8th) would see us safely in top 4, 1.2PPG (Plymouth, 15th) guarantees us top 6, and 1.0PPG (Huddersfield, 21st) guarantees top-10, although Norwich and Preston would both have to have perfect seasons but play each other.

1.5 per game will leave us on 99 points which would most probably be sufficient.

[KingsX]

When did Enzo’s Blue Army become Enzo’s Spreadsheet Army?   

[Asha]

46 minutes ago, KingsX said:

When did Enzo’s Blue Army become Enzo’s Spreadsheet Army?   

Since we started playing so EXCELlently 

[fuchsntf]

On 11/02/2024 at 11:33, rugbyblue said:

You know.....if you spend Saturday nights and indeed all of your spare time working out mathematical points formulas and studying football league tables for hypothetical situations, the chances of getting a girlfriend are slim at best 🤣

Ahhh but if you manage to get a GF…you have someone to help you do the calculations,while she hypothetically makes you a cup of tea,getting biscuits

especially ginger nuts will depend if she can calculate the XG..

and comparing against how many lumps of sugar,

nooky will depend on your formulas for home n away,

and hypotheticals on which is the best room,or garden shed..

[Vacamion]

3 hours ago, KingsX said:

When did Enzo’s Blue Army become Enzo’s Spreadsheet Army?   

 

2 hours ago, Asha said:

Since we started playing so EXCELlently 

 

Since we gave Stoke such a cutting and pasting.

 

 

[Sly]

3 hours ago, KingsX said:

When did Enzo’s Blue Army become Enzo’s Spreadsheet Army?   

The entire sporting world is now based around sabermetric and analytical data. 
 

It sort of blew up after the world became aware of Billy Beanes’ approach to building a team on a shoe string budget with the Oakland Athletics.

 

They were in many ways, the catalyst of sports analysis as see it today, rather than Jimmy Hills opinion with what he was watching with his own eyes. 
 

The entire sporting world now revolves around algorithms at a top class level. 
 

You can guarantee that the clubs data analysis are crunching these numbers as well. 

[foxfanazer]

6 minutes ago, Sly said:

The entire sporting world is now based around sabermetric and analytical data. 
 

It sort of blew up after the world became aware of Billy Beanes’ approach to building a team on a shoe string budget with the Oakland Athletics.

 

They were in many ways, the catalyst of sports analysis as see it today, rather than Jimmy Hills opinion with what he was watching with his own eyes. 
 

The entire sporting world now revolves around algorithms at a top class level. 
 

You can guarantee that the clubs data analysis are crunching these numbers as well. 

I hope they made good use of the "Lowest wecan  finiosh" thread

Edited 14 February by foxfanazer

[Sly]

24 minutes ago, foxfanazer said:

I hope they made good use of the "Lowest wecan  finiosh" thread

I dare not enter, the title alone confused me. 

[ealingfox]

As Millwall and Birmingham still have to play each other they can't both get to 78 points and therefore one of them is also on the list.

[Aus Fox]

24 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

As Millwall and Birmingham still have to play each other they can't both get to 78 points and therefore one of them is also on the list.

To be fair, there’s quite a few like this Swansea still have to play Stoke and Millwall same scenario applies, I think the actual list, taking into consideration fixture and teams losing there are probably 8 or so teams that can’t actually catch us, they’ll all be added to the list soon enough.

Millwall could jump on tomorrow if they fail to beat Ipswich 

[Foxmeister]

On 11/02/2024 at 20:18, Xen said:

In theory, after 46 games the table could look like:

 

That's taking into account all the games against each other, trying to minimise each team's total to 75pts going down the (current) table in order. Bit unscientific and there are definitely some choices that would maybe allow Millwall to sneak ahead of us as well*, but by my reckoning the worst we can mathematically do is 17th (given a perfect set of results over the next ~180 Championship games!)

 

 

*This isn't saying that Millwall can't catch us, but if they do then it would mean one of the other sides drops those points and wouldn't. So not quite what the thread is about, but the same gist!

The last day would be fvcking mental!

[OntarioFox]

By my working out, we're 5 wins away from guaranteeing a playoff spot?

Based on Hull having a game in hand, if they win that they'll be on 51 points, so a mere 27 points behind. We'd have to lose 9 of 14 to drop out from here, assuming perfect results for everyone below us.

What a season. I know we're eternal pessimists, but at this point I'm eyeing up fixtures to look at which game we'll be clinching promotion - Bristol City away would be lovely, but part of me thinks if we beat Leeds we could be there even sooner - imagine doing it against Southampton at home!

Edited 14 February by OntarioFox

[CosbehFox]

9 minutes ago, OntarioFox said:

By my working out, we're 5 wins away from guaranteeing a playoff spot?

Based on Hull having a game in hand, if they win that they'll be on 51 points, so a mere 27 points behind. We'd have to lose 9 of 14 to drop out from here, assuming perfect results for everyone below us.

What a season. I know we're eternal pessimists, but at this point I'm eyeing up fixtures to look at which game we'll be clinching promotion - Bristol City away would be lovely, but part of me thinks if we beat Leeds we could be there even sooner - imagine doing it against Southampton at home!

Yeah correct - 5 wins is defo playoffs. 

 

Now at the point where any from West Brom below pretty much can't afford to lose points in 5/6 of their remaining fixtures. 

[KingsX]

 

5 hours ago, Sly said:

The entire sporting world is now based around sabermetric and analytical data.

It sort of blew up after the world became aware of Billy Beanes’ approach to building a team on a shoe string budget with the Oakland Athletics.

They were in many ways, the catalyst of sports analysis as see it today, rather than Jimmy Hills opinion with what he was watching with his own eyes. 
The entire sporting world now revolves around algorithms at a top class level. 
You can guarantee that the clubs data analysis are crunching these numbers as well. 

I totally agree!   Though what I was referring to, is spreadsheets springing up like weeds in various threads, minutely analyzing the table and every possible combination of future results.

 

6 hours ago, Vacamion said:

Since we gave Stoke such a cutting and pasting.

I just hope 12 months from now, we’re not seeing tables Excelerate through the forum, racing to recalculate our relegation chances after each result.

[Merchant_Banker]

8 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

Ahhh but if you manage to get a GF…you have someone to help you do the calculations,while she hypothetically makes you a cup of tea,getting biscuits

especially ginger nuts will depend if she can calculate the XG..

and comparing against how many lumps of sugar,

nooky will depend on your formulas for home n away,

and hypotheticals on which is the best room,or garden shed..

I think if you assume your girlfriend will make all of the tea you may have a very low nooky score. It would be interesting to calculate the ratio of tea making to nooky score though. 

Edited 14 February by Merchant_Banker

[Aus Fox]

No one likes them, we don’t care they can’t catch us now! Welcome to the list:

 

 1. Rotherham

2. Sheffield Wednesday

3. Queens Park Rangers

4. Huddersfield Town

5. Stoke City

6. Millwall