Premier League has charged LCFC with an alleged breach of PSR

[TheGoldenGod]

By the way Sheff United last season would have had to be deducted 25 points to miss out on top 6 and bookies I've seen have us 7th.

 

Factually we won't be deducted anywhere close to that many points so we'll be in and amongst the top 6 easily, not concerned at all!

[ClaphamFox]

2 minutes ago, Dan said:

I think unless the chance of a points deduction was nearly certain that they would price us in line with Ipswich and Southampton. The fact they're offering that sort of price tells me we're almost certainly getting done. If it isn't a certainty, then this makes Leicester's odds to be promoted or win the league extremely generous.

 

I would put money on it myself but I can only conclude based on those odds that we are getting a deduction.

 

I mean I may be wrong but I'll happily revisit this in 6 months because I'm quite sure I won't be.

 

Just now, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Exactly. Why on earth would we be priced like we are unless they were (all) very confident that they know something? 

 

And don't give it the "prices are just fueled by activity" line, because Birmingham are the most backed team and their odds aren't the shortest.

The fact that we've been charged for 23/24 (and are not disputing the PL's jurisdiction) means we are likely to get a points deduction because that's what usually happens in those circumstances. Anybody with a passing knowledge of previous PSR cases could tell you this. It's publicly available information - the bookies don't have any inside knowledge that enables them to reach this conclusion. The independent commission hasn't even sat yet, so how would the bookies have any knowledge of the outcome?

 

The pricing reflects the probability of us getting a deduction combined with a rough guess on their part of what that deduction might be. But it will be pure guesswork. The bookies odds don't tell us anything at all that we didn't already know.

[Dan]

1 minute ago, ClaphamFox said:

 

The fact that we've been charged for 23/24 (and are not disputing the PL's jurisdiction) means we are likely to get a points deduction because that's what usually happens in those circumstances. Anybody with a passing knowledge of previous PSR cases could tell you this. It's publicly available information - the bookies don't have any inside knowledge that enables them to reach this conclusion. The independent commission hasn't even sat yet, so how would the bookies have any knowledge of the outcome?

 

The pricing reflects the probability of us getting a deduction combined with a rough guess on their part of what that deduction might be. But it will be pure guesswork. The bookies odds don't tell us anything at all that we didn't already know.

I'd say without near certainty that we're getting a deduction they wouldn't boost us to something like that.

 

They don't know the outcome but I don't think they would offer odds like that without very good reason. Which is all I said in the first place.

[jayfox26]

I still don't see how the PL can sanction us for 23-24. They've changed the rules recently but surely any decent lawyer would argue that you can't retrospectively enforce new rules. The EFL could potentially though and that's where our issues may lie. 

[ClaphamFox]

Just now, jayfox26 said:

I still don't see how the PL can sanction us for 23-24. They've changed the rules recently but surely any decent lawyer would argue that you can't retrospectively enforce new rules. The EFL could potentially though and that's where our issues may lie. 

The PL has jurisdiction over us for 23/24 - that was clarified in the recent arbitration ruling. The question is whether they can impose a deduction on us in the Championship. The recent change agreed between the PL and EFL does allow points deductions to follow teams between divisions in the event of relegation or promotion, but in our case - as you say - it would have to be imposed retrospectively. Most of the media seems to believe that this can and will happen, but like you I wonder whether our lawyers are challenging this aspect of things. 

[Ric Flair]

Whats odd is Kieran Maguire is very good pals with Nick Di Marco and Kieran seems to be the only one saying its unlikely the PL can pass down a points deduction to the EFL. 

 

 

[ClaphamFox]

Just now, Ric Flair said:

Whats odd is Kieran Maguire is very good pals with Nick Di Marco and Kieran seems to be the only one saying its unlikely the PL can pass down a points deduction to the EFL. 

 

 

Exactly. Based on how pally Maguire and Di Macro are, and how Maguire has been publicly arguing that the PL might not be able to pass any points deduction down to the EFL, it seems highly plausible that this is a line of argument we're pursuing. 

[cruzFOX]

Jeez this is all so exhausting and part of me just wants us to take our punishment snd move on but I understand you gotta have due process. Our lawyers came thru for us last time and I’m sure they will find a way to reduce the point deduction should we get it. At that point we can all breathe and then get on with the job at hand.

[Terraloon]

1 hour ago, ClaphamFox said:

 

1 hour ago, ClaphamFox said:

The PL has jurisdiction over us for 23/24 - that was clarified in the recent arbitration ruling. The question is whether they can impose a deduction on us in the Championship. The recent change agreed between the PL and EFL does allow points deductions to follow teams between divisions in the event of relegation or promotion, but in our case - as you say - it would have to be imposed retrospectively. Most of the media seems to believe that this can and will happen, but like you I wonder whether our lawyers are challenging this aspect of things. 

The PL did indeed have jurisdiction to investigate and pursue but what is key is that the main  charge, ie the PSR one, is actually under the EFL rules. That really is key because the  IC conducting the proceedings will rely on EFL rules and sanctions for that charge.

What we shouldn’t loose sight of is that the EFL will be looking at the numbers for 22/23, 23/24 and 24/25 If the numbers suggest that a charge is appropriate then the concern will be the EFL will lodge another charge. The question of jurisdiction will be key . In other words will the EFL charge LCFC using the PL rules. Bear in mind there isn’t the clarity in the PL rules around double jeopardy but, the second Everton commission did make allowances in that respect

As I posted yesterday  if the allowance for period ending 24/25  is £105 million that’s one thing if it’s £83 million it really will be squeaky bum time.

But what really is the biggest threat is the how T-2 ( 23/24) T-1 (24/25) which will be the accounts in draft or as close to the actual s and T (25/26) which will be estimated. If the losses for those come out at over £145  million ish then there is a real possibility that the EFL will impose a set of in year sanctions in all likelihood the imposition of an embargo 
Back to those numbers  T-2 was £19 million, I estimate T-1 at £80-85 million so any projected loss over £ 40 million in 25/26 and it’s that which will be as much of an issue  when the bookies are setting the odds 

 

 

Edited 2 June 2025 by Terraloon

[goose2010]

58 minutes ago, TheGoldenGod said:

By the way Sheff United last season would have had to be deducted 25 points to miss out on top 6 and bookies I've seen have us 7th.

 

Factually we won't be deducted anywhere close to that many points so we'll be in and amongst the top 6 easily, not concerned at all!

The bookies have us finishing 7th because they have looked at the absolute state the squad is in. 

 

Edited 2 June 2025 by goose2010

[teblin]

1 minute ago, goose2010 said:

The bookies have us finishing 7th because they have looked at the absolute state the squad is in. 

 

Bookies odds are about who has placed bets really.

[Foxin_Mad]

1 minute ago, goose2010 said:

The bookies have us finishing 7th because they have looked at the absolute state the squad is in. 

 

Its still way ahead of most the shite in that division. Bar a massive points deduction and having a manager with some amount of competence it would be a challenge to finish below 4th with utter shite like Sunderland, Cov and Bristol City getting into the Playoffs. 

 

With the points deduction part of me thinks we deserve whatever because of the sheer ineptitude at the club, the other part of me hopes the lawyer can screw over the Premier League and EFL as they seem to be the only organisation with similar levels of ineptitude within added to that corruption and now a vendetta, they really deserve to lose. The rules are absolute toss, and were written by a halfwit. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

1 hour ago, ClaphamFox said:

 

The fact that we've been charged for 23/24 (and are not disputing the PL's jurisdiction) means we are likely to get a points deduction because that's what usually happens in those circumstances. Anybody with a passing knowledge of previous PSR cases could tell you this. It's publicly available information - the bookies don't have any inside knowledge that enables them to reach this conclusion. The independent commission hasn't even sat yet, so how would the bookies have any knowledge of the outcome?

 

The pricing reflects the probability of us getting a deduction combined with a rough guess on their part of what that deduction might be. But it will be pure guesswork. The bookies odds don't tell us anything at all that we didn't already know.

Yep, which like Dan is exactly what I'm saying. They wouldn't offer those odds if they didn't think they were accurate. That's all I'm saying.

[MattFox]

On 31/05/2025 at 08:32, LCFCJohn said:

So Sheffield Wednesday haven’t paid staff for the second time in 3 months. Chansiri is also refusing offers to sell the club.

 

Why are the EFL not stepping in here? What about their so called but clearly BS ‘fit and proper owners’ rules!

 

Whilst our problems are of our own making, this does show that the EFL aren’t fit for purpose. It also shows they don’t actually care about the survival of clubs and this is not what the rules are about, regardless of their narrative.

Chansiri is basically Aiyawatt with slightly less cash 

 

Anything going on there could easily happen here 

[urban.spaceman]

20 hours ago, john ridley said:

 I agree with your points , and yeah the rules are all over the place depending  who you are .But giving Vestergaard'another contract, the Eduoard  fiasco, signing Skipp for all that money  etc  that's on Rudkin , Glover etc   serves em right ,fed up of hearing about it .

I honestly don’t understand this attitude. The club has made terrible mistakes. As many clubs do.

 

The consequence of that shouldn’t be to plummet from consistently and successfully competing at the top of the Premier League table and for domestic & European trophies, to even further restrictions on earnings and spending power, two relegations in 3 years, the forced selling off of assets for way below their value, the forced sale of home grown players,  the further delaying of improving critical infrastructure like the stadium expansion which would have benefited the local community and economy, the persistent reputational harm done by two demonstrably corrupt leagues that directly influences our player and managerial recruitment choices; and the controlled decline over several seasons with no way out of it because a club owned by a multi billionaire with a proven track record of sustainable investment and success in the club and community was allegedly over some arbitrary spending line in T-3 or whatever bollocks they can come up with next. 

 

If Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, Man Utd or Spurs **** up with recruitment the most they’ll suffer is a few years away from being top 6 regulars. They’ve been given complete freedom from any consequences of their mistakes and indeed regular rule breaking - though it’s been nice to see Man Utd and Spurs failing on their own terms of late.

 

We have not been given the luxury to fail on our own terms.

 

Despite being the 6th most successful English club this millennium, we’ve lost everything because the Premier League chose to protect the 5 biggest clubs plus Tottenham instead of holding them accountable for anything. 

 

We as a fanbase should refuse to accept what the Premier League and EFL is attempting to do to us. We don’t deserve it by any stretch of the imagination and - while we should hold the club accountable for the mistakes they’ve made - we should be backing the club in the legal fight that we have already proven we are capable of winning. Because we are absolutely well within our rights to challenge the status quo on the pitch and off of it.  As far as I can tell that’s the only way we’re going to get our future back, by fighting the powers that be for it. 

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, Terraloon said:

 

The PL did indeed have jurisdiction to investigate and pursue but what is key is that the main  charge, ie the PSR one, is actually under the EFL rules. That really is key because the  IC conducting the proceedings will rely on EFL rules and sanctions for that charge.

What we shouldn’t loose sight of is that the EFL will be looking at the numbers for 22/23, 23/24 and 24/25 If the numbers suggest that a charge is appropriate then the concern will be the EFL will lodge another charge. The question of jurisdiction will be key . In other words will the EFL charge LCFC using the PL rules. Bear in mind there isn’t the clarity in the PL rules around double jeopardy but, the second Everton commission did make allowances in that respect

As I posted yesterday  if the allowance for period ending 24/25  is £105 million that’s one thing if it’s £83 million it really will be squeaky bum time.

But what really is the biggest threat is the how T-2 ( 23/24) T-1 (24/25) which will be the accounts in draft or as close to the actual s and T (25/26) which will be estimated. If the losses for those come out at over £145  million ish then there is a real possibility that the EFL will impose a set of in year sanctions in all likelihood the imposition of an embargo 
Back to those numbers  T-2 was £19 million, I estimate T-1 at £80-85 million so any projected loss over £ 40 million in 25/26 and it’s that which will be as much of an issue  when the bookies are setting the odds 

 

 

I thought the £105m / £83m debate is in relation to the 3 years ending 2023/24? Hence why we were confident we'd not breached with the sales of KDH and Enzo etc. 

 

It's then assumed for 24/25 it drops.

 

 

[Dan]

1 hour ago, goose2010 said:

The bookies have us finishing 7th because they have looked at the absolute state the squad is in. 

 

They would have us in line with Ipswich and Southampton if not for the deduction. I'm saying this as somebody who wants 90% of them cannoning into outer space,

[Fazzer 7]

Whealan and Rudkin must be a pair of absolute twerps. I'd sack the pair of em on the spot. 

[LCFCJohn]

1 hour ago, MattFox said:

Chansiri is basically Aiyawatt with slightly less cash 

 

Anything going on there could easily happen here 

There’s a lot of similarities definitely. Incompetence and contempt for supporters are two.

 

I think Chansiri is more of a gob shite and says stuff in the media whereas Aiyawatt just can’t be arsed to even do that and just never says anything.

[LCFCJohn]

10 hours ago, SemperEadem said:

They are, they are looking to dish out to them a three window transfer ban.

I meant action to make Chansiri relinquish the club, as opposed to punishments that are ultimately just a detriment to the club and supporters, not the man causing the problems. 
 

Their fit and proper owners test is a load of BS when people like him, Dai Yong at Reading and Vincent Tan at Cardiff pass it!

[LCFCCHRIS]

With or without points deduction there’s no guarantee we’ll be in the promotion fight. 

[ClaphamFox]

53 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

I honestly don’t understand this attitude. The club has made terrible mistakes. As many clubs do.

 

The consequence of that shouldn’t be to plummet from consistently and successfully competing at the top of the Premier League table and for domestic & European trophies, to even further restrictions on earnings and spending power, two relegations in 3 years, the forced selling off of assets for way below their value, the forced sale of home grown players,  the further delaying of improving critical infrastructure like the stadium expansion which would have benefited the local community and economy, the persistent reputational harm done by two demonstrably corrupt leagues that directly influences our player and managerial recruitment choices; and the controlled decline over several seasons with no way out of it because a club owned by a multi billionaire with a proven track record of sustainable investment and success in the club and community was allegedly over some arbitrary spending line in T-3 or whatever bollocks they can come up with next. 

 

If Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, Man Utd or Spurs **** up with recruitment the most they’ll suffer is a few years away from being top 6 regulars. They’ve been given complete freedom from any consequences of their mistakes and indeed regular rule breaking - though it’s been nice to see Man Utd and Spurs failing on their own terms of late.

 

We have not been given the luxury to fail on our own terms.

 

Despite being the 6th most successful English club this millennium, we’ve lost everything because the Premier League chose to protect the 5 biggest clubs plus Tottenham instead of holding them accountable for anything. 

 

We as a fanbase should refuse to accept what the Premier League and EFL is attempting to do to us. We don’t deserve it by any stretch of the imagination and - while we should hold the club accountable for the mistakes they’ve made - we should be backing the club in the legal fight that we have already proven we are capable of winning. Because we are absolutely well within our rights to challenge the status quo on the pitch and off of it.  As far as I can tell that’s the only way we’re going to get our future back, by fighting the powers that be for it. 

Exactly. Whenever I see our own fans suggest that any points deduction serves us right and that they hope the PL/EFL hit us hard, I’m reminded of the scene in Life of Brian where an emaciated and filthy Michael Palin is chained up on the walls of a Roman prison, heaping praise on the Romans and saying they’re the best thing that could have happened to him. 

[Dan]

I can't stand the PL either but what's ever irritating is that when there are two issues, one will always be used to distract from the other. I can't full on bash the PL until we've got our own house in order. We need a position of strength.

[Richard]

2 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

Whats odd is Kieran Maguire is very good pals with Nick Di Marco and Kieran seems to be the only one saying its unlikely the PL can pass down a points deduction to the EFL. 

 

 

Kieran Maguire is far and away the most reliable of the football finance commentators. 

 

Maybe the swiss ramble who was the OG but they don't tend to comment on hypotheticals only accounts analysis. 

 

The rest of them are just imitations 

[ClaphamFox]

3 hours ago, Dan said:

I'd say without near certainty that we're getting a deduction they wouldn't boost us to something like that.

 

They don't know the outcome but I don't think they would offer odds like that without very good reason. Which is all I said in the first place.

Your implication always seems to have been that the bookies odds tell us something we didn’t already know. I’m saying they don’t shift our understanding of the situation by one millimetre. They’re responding to the fact that we’ve been charged and adjusting the odds accordingly. If they’d have ignored the charge and priced us as favourites to win the division, that would have been noteworthy. But the mere fact of them reflecting the known fact of us being charged means nothing at all. They have no more idea about what’s going to happen than you or I do.