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Posted
5 minutes ago, Lionator said:

If they’re gonna lose in 2029 they might as well use their massive majority to enact proper social change in this country, rather than the tepid stuff they’re doing now. 

And this result has shown that at least at a local level, some people are ready to entertain the idea of that.

  • Like 1
Posted
26 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

I don't know if it is that devastating for Labour. Is anyone ever truly surprised when stting governments lose by-elections? Hopefully they'll look back on it as the wake-up call they needed, rather than the one they expected.

 

Time to stop dancing to Reform's tune, ignore the media's obsession with that gobshite conman Farage, and start focusing on delivering for people who need help, using that fvcking massive majority you have.

This was a 'very very safe' Labour seat though tbf. Where you'd usually expect a 'incumbent government bashing' but still expect them to hold the seat.

 

I'm thought the Greens would beat Labour but im surprised they so easily beat Reform aswell. 

 

As things stand can't see anything but a Hung parliament next GE.

Posted
26 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

I don't know if it is that devastating for Labour. Is anyone ever truly surprised when stting governments lose by-elections? Hopefully they'll look back on it as the wake-up call they needed, rather than the one they expected.

 

Time to stop dancing to Reform's tune, ignore the media's obsession with that gobshite conman Farage, and start focusing on delivering for people who need help, using that fvcking massive majority you have.

This was a 'very very safe' Labour seat though tbf. Where you'd usually expect a 'incumbent government bashing' but still expect them to hold the seat.

 

I'm thought the Greens would beat Labour but im surprised they so easily beat Reform aswell. 

 

As things stand can't see anything but a Hung parliament next GE.

Posted
26 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

I don't know if it is that devastating for Labour. Is anyone ever truly surprised when stting governments lose by-elections? Hopefully they'll look back on it as the wake-up call they needed, rather than the one they expected.

 

Time to stop dancing to Reform's tune, ignore the media's obsession with that gobshite conman Farage, and start focusing on delivering for people who need help, using that fvcking massive majority you have.

This was a 'very very safe' Labour seat though tbf. Where you'd usually expect a 'incumbent government bashing' but still expect them to hold the seat.

 

I'm thought the Greens would beat Labour but im surprised they so easily beat Reform aswell. 

 

As things stand can't see anything but a Hung parliament next GE.

Posted
59 minutes ago, StanSP said:

That's superb for the Greens, devastating for Reform and even more devastating for Labour. 

 

Good start to the day nonetheless. 

I think the question on everyone's lips is, Hannah Spencer - would you?

  • Haha 2
Posted

Labour will sort their act out before the next general election, so although a bad night for then (and they'll have a few more before things get better) not the end of the world.

 

Genuinely think though this is worse for Reform and shows a trend following both  the by elections we had in Scotland and Wales recently.

 

They seem to have a strong core vote but it has quite a low ceiling,  and the disproportionate amount of publicity they get on the TV and in the written press, can be detrimental rather than beneficial to them, as more people get exposed to their rhetoric. Another example last night being the totally ungracious response to losing by Goodwin.

 

For so many people it will be "anyone but Reform" at the next GE, and I think that proportion of people will only increase as time goes by.

  • Like 4
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, StanSP said:

That's superb for the Greens, devastating for Reform and even more devastating for Labour. 

 

Good start to the day nonetheless. 

Unfortunately, an area held by labour since 1931 is nowhere near the top of its target seat list. They've shown an ability to take a lot of votes again, even somewhere pretty pretty leaning. Of their 15% of the vote, 2/5th came from labour. 

 

3 hours ago, Lionator said:

If they’re gonna lose in 2029 they might as well use their massive majority to enact proper social change in this country, rather than the tepid stuff they’re doing now. 

Quite. Trying to appeal to reform voters clearly isn't holding their party coalition together. They get smashed by the Tory press every day no matter what they do so start spending some money on fixing the lives of ordinary people please.

Leaving Burnham out will prove to be disastrous if starmar ends up out of the job in the next year too as I think he's labour's personality with broadest appeal to the electorate. 

For the Tories, they are in disarray down to 2% of the vote from 8% previously. Any talk of a banenoch improvement smashed to smithereens. 

Edited by CornwallFox
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, foxes1988 said:

I see Reform are taking this loss with plenty of grace and humility.

Being outdone by women tends to rather bruise the egos of such people, yes. Take a look at their counterparts across the pond for more examples there. 

 

And this is the victory of a white woman. Imagine the reaction if a POC woman had won instead...

Edited by leicsmac
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  • Thanks 1
Posted

Reform desperately trying to make a story out of losing this when really the story is Labour losing out to the Greens and how Reform have utterly smashed the Tories
 

24k of the constituency voted for left leaning politics and 10k vote for right leaning politics.
 

The constituency has effectively voted how it’s always felt but reflects that Labour’s pandering to Reform supporters is going to lose them major votes in the inner city locations. 
 

Also some of the social media stuff on here and Goodwin’s reaction absolutely disgusting. It’s also said without the context as well 

  • Like 4
Posted
5 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

Reform desperately trying to make a story out of losing this when really the story is Labour losing out to the Greens and how Reform have utterly smashed the Tories
 

24k of the constituency voted for left leaning politics and 10k vote for right leaning politics.
 

The constituency has effectively voted how it’s always felt but reflects that Labour’s pandering to Reform supporters is going to lose them major votes in the inner city locations. 
 

Also some of the social media stuff on here and Goodwin’s reaction absolutely disgusting. It’s also said without the context as well 

This shouldn't be surprising to anyone, however. 

Posted
46 minutes ago, foxes1988 said:

This was a 'very very safe' Labour seat though tbf. Where you'd usually expect a 'incumbent government bashing' but still expect them to hold the seat.

 

I'm thought the Greens would beat Labour but im surprised they so easily beat Reform aswell. 

 

As things stand can't see anything but a Hung parliament next GE.

 

46 minutes ago, foxes1988 said:

This was a 'very very safe' Labour seat though tbf. Where you'd usually expect a 'incumbent government bashing' but still expect them to hold the seat.

 

I'm thought the Greens would beat Labour but im surprised they so easily beat Reform aswell. 

 

As things stand can't see anything but a Hung parliament next GE.

 

46 minutes ago, foxes1988 said:

This was a 'very very safe' Labour seat though tbf. Where you'd usually expect a 'incumbent government bashing' but still expect them to hold the seat.

 

I'm thought the Greens would beat Labour but im surprised they so easily beat Reform aswell. 

 

As things stand can't see anything but a Hung parliament next GE.

 

39 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

I think the question on everyone's lips is, Hannah Spencer - would you?

 

Wrong, the question is whether it was just a safe seat, or a 'very very safe' seat?

Posted

Not a seat to make strong judgments on for the GE in 2029

 

global politics could be anything in three years time - so the global issues prevalent in seats like this now means you can’t just extrapolate the results etc etc 

 

good to see reform unable to push through (turnout was low and I wonder if a chunk of their support just cba to vote).  still maintain that farage is a protest politician which makes it v tough for him to win at a GE.  Applies even more to Polanski.  However, the overall message (as made above)  is that with more parties, the likelihood of a hung parliament increases. 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Not a seat to make strong judgments on for the GE in 2029

 

global politics could be anything in three years time - so the global issues prevalent in seats like this now means you can’t just extrapolate the results etc etc 

 

good to see reform unable to push through (turnout was low and I wonder if a chunk of their support just cba to vote).  still maintain that farage is a protest politician which makes it v tough for him to win at a GE.  Applies even more to Polanski.  However, the overall message (as made above)  is that with more parties, the likelihood of a hung parliament increases. 

 

Very true. 

 

There could be a civil insurgency in the US, a succession crisis in Russia and China continuing to position themselves to pick up the pieces by that time, for instance. 

  • Like 1
Posted
1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

Very true. 

 

There could be a civil insurgency in the US, a succession crisis in Russia and China continuing to position themselves to pick up the pieces by that time, for instance. 

None of which are likely to affect voting patterns here as much as one single issue currently does. 

But I’m  nervous to say ‘these are strange times’ because the past decade seems to have been ‘unprecedented event’ after ‘unprecedented event’. 

Posted
16 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Not a seat to make strong judgments on for the GE in 2029

 

global politics could be anything in three years time - so the global issues prevalent in seats like this now means you can’t just extrapolate the results etc etc 

 

good to see reform unable to push through (turnout was low and I wonder if a chunk of their support just cba to vote).  still maintain that farage is a protest politician which makes it v tough for him to win at a GE.  Applies even more to Polanski.  However, the overall message (as made above)  is that with more parties, the likelihood of a hung parliament increases. 

 

Turnout was high I thought, it was the same as at the GE which for a by-election is a good turnout.

  • Like 2
Posted
3 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

None of which are likely to affect voting patterns here as much as one single issue currently does. 

But I’m  nervous to say ‘these are strange times’ because the past decade seems to have been ‘unprecedented event’ after ‘unprecedented event’. 

If it's the issue I think you're referring to, then a more unstable world will make that issue a lot worse and the UK will be one of many places to feel the brunt. 

 

And yes, we live in interesting times. And, as has been said before, there's a reason that's often known as a curse rather than a benediction. 

 

 

Just now, Lionator said:

You’d think they’d be happy with a white working class labourer making it to parliament. It’s almost like it isn’t actually about that and reform are actually the ‘elite’ that was a reinforced unequal society that they can leach and make the most money off. 

Yes, funny that. 

Posted
54 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Wordle 1 714 5/6


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Almost as bad a performance as the Tories. 

  • Haha 4
Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Not a seat to make strong judgments on for the GE in 2029

 

global politics could be anything in three years time - so the global issues prevalent in seats like this now means you can’t just extrapolate the results etc etc 

 

good to see reform unable to push through (turnout was low and I wonder if a chunk of their support just cba to vote).  still maintain that farage is a protest politician which makes it v tough for him to win at a GE.  Applies even more to Polanski.  However, the overall message (as made above)  is that with more parties, the likelihood of a hung parliament increases. 

 

Disagree with this. I think our FPTP system designed for a 2 party system which has split to a 5 party system in England means it’s more likely that a party gets a majority and therefore 100% of the power with 22% of the votes and more likely a “protest party” gets 100% of the power power. 
 

A 5-way split actually means winning by 3% of the total votes means you’re more likely to get a majority than a 3-way split 

Edited by Sampson

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