Betting Thread

[ramadaone]

On 30 May 2018 at 20:10, brucey said:

Made the same conclusion regarding betting on football matches ages ago. The betting big on short odds thing is the absolute worst idea with how unpredictable football can be. You can't win betting long term on matches unless you have inside info or are one of the very rare breed of professionals with their fancy algorithms, betting on the low margin bookmakers such as Pinnacle or exchanges.

 

I have however made a very large amount in the last 1.5 years from transfer/manager betting. There is lots of value to be had in those markets if you know which journos are reliable and can get in your bet before the bookies change the odds.

 

The easier alternative of course is just to do matched betting. You can make a ton from it, although it can be fairly time-consuming so I don't do it apart from the one inplay Bet365 offer every few weeks.

 

If you like your match betting take a look at the Bet365 2UP offer as it is a gold mine 

Applies to tennis and football

 

 Hate to say it but when we went 2UP at Spurs and didn't win I was secretly very pleased ( and £750 up all risk free) 

 

But as you say match betting is pretty time consuming so not for everyone 

 

Slightly off topic but told Emma's Dilemma in the first at Fakenham on Sunday is a sure thing but have heard that many times before to my cost

[brucey]

2 minutes ago, ramadaone said:

If you like your match betting take a look at the Bet365 2UP offer as it is a gold mine 

Applies to tennis and football

 

 Hate to say it but when we went 2UP at Spurs and didn't win I was secretly very pleased ( and £750 up all risk free) 

 

But as you say match betting is pretty time consuming so not for everyone 

Yeah heard good things about 2UP, presumably you picked Leicester to win and lay that on an exchange? So if Spurs had gone 2 up and then we came back to win, there wouldn't have been any profit?

 

Tbh I struggle with controlling my stake sizes and have obsessive tendencies, so looking at odds all day is playing with fire for me personally which is why I never did matched betting, and why I've given up betting on games. I can just about manage transfer betting due to the inherent stake limitations and very delayed settlements, but it still messes with my head badly despite doing very well. Actually felt relieved when I finally got gubbed by Hills last week as their stake limit was the highest. I'm up by ~£10k overall but not sure it has been worth my mental health.

[Dan LCFC]

I've been doing a lot of Walkers type of bets lately with some proper random leagues involved and I've actually been winning money from it. I do think there's good value in some of these leagues if you look hard enough. Teams around the top of their leagues at evens at home to teams near the bottom.

 

Also think the odds on BTTS on Brazilian games are over-priced. Normally around evens every game and it comes in more often than not.

[Dan LCFC]

12 hours ago, Walkers said:

Some interesting odds in the Spanish 2nd division and Hungary 1st division on the final day. Some leaders underdogs against relegation threatened sides

Not looked at the results but seen most of the unlikely favourites were winning again. Tempted next year to just chuck loads on the unlikely favourites as it's clear as day fixed.

[Dan LCFC]

Good example of over-priced team - Olimpia Asuncion in Paraguay. Absolutely pissing their league and are 5/6 to beat the team third from bottom away.

[Dan LCFC]

19 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

Good example of over-priced team - Olimpia Asuncion in Paraguay. Absolutely pissing their league and are 5/6 to beat the team third from bottom away.

Currently 1-0 down and getting totally outplayed. Inexplicable. Col has a point

 

The minute I stick any kind of decent price out for everyone to read it is tainted. I swear.

[ramadaone]

23 hours ago, brucey said:

Yeah heard good things about 2UP, presumably you picked Leicester to win and lay that on an exchange? So if Spurs had gone 2 up and then we came back to win, there wouldn't have been any profit?

 

Tbh I struggle with controlling my stake sizes and have obsessive tendencies, so looking at odds all day is playing with fire for me personally which is why I never did matched betting, and why I've given up betting on games. I can just about manage transfer betting due to the inherent stake limitations and very delayed settlements, but it still messes with my head badly despite doing very well. Actually felt relieved when I finally got gubbed by Hills last week as their stake limit was the highest. I'm up by ~£10k overall but not sure it has been worth my mental health.

Yes I backed Leicster and laid us at the exchange for exactly the same price so no profit or loss ( or exposure )

 

Once Leicster went 2 up then Bet365 pay out

 

In this instance because Leicster then went on to lose the game you also win on the exchange which is well handy when you have had a nice juicy bet

 

Obviously this is a rare occurance but a team going 2up and then getting pegged back to 2-1 happens a few times so you can cash out for a tidy profit. The same happens when rank outsiders like Sunderland go to 2up at Derby as everyone thinks Derby will get back into it and that is reflected in the odds.

 

Getting a the same price at the bookies and exchange is time consuming but sites like Oddsmonkey make it relatively easy now days

 

 

 

[lildave3]

1 hour ago, Dan LCFC said:

Currently 1-0 down and getting totally outplayed. Inexplicable. Col has a point

 

The minute I stick any kind of decent price out for everyone to read it is tainted. I swear.

But again, how much do you actually know about the Paraguayan league? Going off league tables is often false. 

[Stinkenzo]

Lets be honest its 50/50, you can do all the research you like but going back to a game that caught me and a few others out a few months ago, Willem ll 5-0 PSV wasn't quite in the script no matter what area you researched. I have this shit record of backing teams who have won their last 4 or 5 in a row, happened again today. Anyone who believes it is purely research must be very rich.

[Dan LCFC]

2 hours ago, lildave3 said:

But again, how much do you actually know about the Paraguayan league? Going off league tables is often false. 

Very little. The league is usually a pretty good indicator though.

 

They actually turned it around and then the opposing team went down to 10 men, before equalising amazingly, I'm glad I wasn't relying on that for a win as mine had already lost.

 

I still think more often than not, that scenario pays out. Considering the odds it made sense.

 

There's been a lot of these lately where a team at the top has lost to a team at the bottom purely because of how much they have to play for. It's been going on in Spain as much as anywhere. Ridiculous how corrupt it is.

[Stinkenzo]

Finn Harps 2/1 home to Longford today for some reason.

Was gonna tip Grindavik 5/4 home to Fylkir before realising 1st-10th in Iceland are covered by 3pts after 7 games It's 2nd vs 10th I think or something close

[TamworthFoxes]

Morocco, Serbia and Holland. £10 treble pays £198.83.

Random friendlies but away on a course bored.

[Stinkenzo]

Got a great record so far in Ireland and Sweden this season up to the end of May

 

Ireland 22/23

Sweden 17/22

 

Got atleast 1 Irish one wrong since though

 

 

[lcfc sheff]

If we sign Maddison I reckon i'm putting the winnings on Mahrez to stay, are any bookies offering more than the 7/1 with skybet??

[brucey]

7 hours ago, lcfc sheff said:

If we sign Maddison I reckon i'm putting the winnings on Mahrez to stay, are any bookies offering more than the 7/1 with skybet??

I had a small amount on Maddison at 16s. I'm not sure that market will be settled any time soon though - Mahrez's fate may have already been decided by then.

To my knowledge the bookies that offer 'to stay' options are Skybet, Hills and Unibet on all transfer markets; Paddy and Betfair on some transfer markets. 

Last summer Mahrez to stay reached 12s twice (post statements) and 16s on deadline day (fake news from Algerian FA)

 

Currently have a couple hundred quid on each of Griezmann to stay @ 7/2 and Lascelles to stay @ 10/11.

Smaller amounts on Bertrand to stay @ 11/4, Gibson to stay @ 9/4, Huth to Stoke @ 6/1.

Edited 7 June 2018 by brucey

[Dan LCFC]

8 hours ago, lcfc sheff said:

If we sign Maddison I reckon i'm putting the winnings on Mahrez to stay, are any bookies offering more than the 7/1 with skybet??

I think Maddison coming actually hinges on that deal.

[ScouseFox]

alex to win love island @ 16/1 on blacktype. was 12s across the board two days ago but most bookies are into 4/1 now, paddy’s have even gone 100/30, and blacktype still haven’t changed their original (already too big) 16/1. 

[lcfc sheff]

11 hours ago, brucey said:

I had a small amount on Maddison at 16s. I'm not sure that market will be settled any time soon though - Mahrez's fate may have already been decided by then.

To my knowledge the bookies that offer 'to stay' options are Skybet, Hills and Unibet on all transfer markets; Paddy and Betfair on some transfer markets. 

Last summer Mahrez to stay reached 12s twice (post statements) and 16s on deadline day (fake news from Algerian FA)

 

Currently have a couple hundred quid on each of Griezmann to stay @ 7/2 and Lascelles to stay @ 10/11.

Smaller amounts on Bertrand to stay @ 11/4, Gibson to stay @ 9/4, Huth to Stoke @ 6/1.

 

 

10 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

I think Maddison coming actually hinges on that deal.

 

I personally wouldn't be surprised to see the same drama on deadline day, but obviously it could very much not get that far and he get his move early.

I'm hoping Maddison comes in earlier and he isn't seen as the 'replacement'

 

[dhermon]

I have a lock for the weekend multis this weekend, Boxing - Jeff Horn vs Terence Crawford   Currently on Sportsbet Australia Crawford is $1.22 to win which in my book is a mighty fine chance of a shed load of free coin , Horn is a bleeder and cuts up pretty easy he will NOT be winning this fight load up you can put ya house on it. 

[whoareyaaa]

for a laugh 

 

Chinese Taipei v Kenya  

-1

25/1 £5 returns £130

£5 on win as well 10/1 returns £55 

[Jaspa]

I've gotta watch out for the wording of these bets before I put anything down, have to wait three months for anything from my transfer bets by the look of it.

Next club > Club after summer transfer window

[brucey]

1 hour ago, SpazticChicken said:

I've gotta watch out for the wording of these bets before I put anything down, have to wait three months for anything from my transfer bets by the look of it.

Next club > Club after summer transfer window

If the bet is 'to join' a club and they do sign for someone, then it will settle the same/next day as the announcement, otherwise yeah for 'to stay' bets you'd have to wait until about 2 days after the window closes. Plus with the earlier closure of the English window, the market most likely will remain open until after the major foreign windows close.

Sometimes if the player signs a contract extension at their current club, 'to stay' will also pay out early, but not always.

Different bookies have different rules too - eg when Drinky went to Chelsea during a 4 hour extension post window closure, 'Drinkwater to stay at Leicester' settled as a winner at Betfair and a loser at Skybet.

Edited 8 June 2018 by brucey

[brucey]

8 hours ago, lcfc sheff said:

I personally wouldn't be surprised to see the same drama on deadline day, but obviously it could very much not get that far and he get his move early.

I'm hoping Maddison comes in earlier and he isn't seen as the 'replacement'

It will be very interesting to see what happens with Jorginho to Man City. It's basically an identical situation to Mahrez.

[brucey]

Rumours that Jorginho may fall through, took 7/1 on Jorginho staying yesterday (now cut).

Mahrez deal however still seems likely. After having gone for Mahrez to stay in the past 4 or so windows, I don't intend to touch the Mahrez market this window.

 

For those who don't mind having their money tied up for a couple months, 'Griezmann to leave' is 1/1 on Skybet yet 'Griezmann to stay' is 7/5 on Paddy Power, which looks like a decent risk free arb opportunity if you bet on both sides. Both markets are stated as 'to sign before 3rd September' so should cover all ground although I can't be bothered to look at T&Cs for any loopholes/intricacies.

[foxes21]

Anyone had success with Betfairs same game multi?