Happy Fox Posted 31 May 2014 Posted 31 May 2014 I had a bit of free time in doing this , but for all you guys and girls. Here we go.... Right we all aware that you need a 2 ppg average to gain automatic promotion, but how many points are needed to stay in the prem? (our initial first target we can do better I know but the sooner we get enough points to survive the better). The points needed of teams finishing 17th over the past 10 seasons, here they are courtesy of statto. 2013/2014 West Brom 36 points 2012/2013 Sunderland 39 points 2011/2012 QPR 37 points 2010/2011 Wolves 40 points 2009/2010 West Ham 35 points 2008/2009 Hull City 35 points 2007/2008 Fulham 36 points 2006/2007 Wigan 38 points 2005/2006 Portsmouth 38 points 2004/2005 West Brom 34 points Average points needed is 36.8 to 1.d.p that is 37 points.
Finnaldo Posted 31 May 2014 Posted 31 May 2014 The stats show we have to finish higher than 18th to survive. Thank me later
Mark_w Posted 31 May 2014 Posted 31 May 2014 Wouldn't it be more useful to find the number of points acquired by the side that finished 18th?
Deucalion Posted 31 May 2014 Posted 31 May 2014 Wouldn't it be more useful to find the number of points acquired by the side that finished 18th? Well...if the 4th from bottom team often finishes well clear of relegation then it would skew the stats, so the OP is correct to look at 18th place imho. Another way of looking at it is we need 41 points to survive.
Mark_w Posted 31 May 2014 Posted 31 May 2014 Well...if the 4th from bottom team often finishes well clear of relegation then it would skew the stats, so the OP is correct to look at 18th place imho. He's looked at the sides who finished 17th, you're agreeing with me.
Deucalion Posted 31 May 2014 Posted 31 May 2014 He's looked at the sides who finished 17th, you're agreeing with me. Oh yeah !!
Bluefan19 Posted 31 May 2014 Posted 31 May 2014 Dont think we will worry about relegation battle. Let QPR deal with it.
shailen Posted 31 May 2014 Posted 31 May 2014 The OP is right to look at stats for 17th place, since you stay up only in 17th place upwards and the thread is talking about staying up. Furthermore there could be a gap of a few points between 18th place and 17th, so it is correct to use 17th place.
Mark_w Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 The OP is right to look at stats for 17th place, since you stay up only in 17th place upwards and the thread is talking about staying up. Furthermore there could be a gap of a few points between 18th place and 17th, so it is correct to use 17th place. W But we only need one point more than the side that finished in 18th to stay up, so that's the points total we should be interested in.
Bayfox Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 So 40 points is a myth. Only taken that to stay up once in the last 10 years. I'd rather look at who went up as champions, what points they amassed going up and what was their fate the next season. For example newcastle, reading are the only teams to do anything like we did and I think they did ok.
Fox Ulike Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 So 40 points is a myth. Only taken that to stay up once in the last 10 years. I'd rather look at who went up as champions, what points they amassed going up and what was their fate the next season. For example newcastle, reading are the only teams to do anything like we did and I think they did ok. No 40 points is an anomoly. Thor's hammer is a myth. Technically you could get 57 points and still be relegated. And already two steps ahead of you sir. I posted the following back in March to widespread acclaim:**** We probably shouldn’t get too carried away. Here’s a list of where the Championship winners finished in their first season in the prem over the last 10 years: 2005 Sunderland: 20th 2006 Reading: 8th 2007 Sunderland: 15th 2008 WBA: 20th 2009 Wolves: 15th 2010 Newcastle: 12th 2011 QPR: 17th 2012 Reading: 19th 2013: Cardiff: 19th currently If you ignore Newcastle as an anomaly due to the huge statue of the club, then it’s only Reading who have bucked the trend and been comfortable in their first season. Not saying that we couldn’t do it, but it would be tough without quality re-inforcements in key areas: (Striker and Centre-back for me)
Xen Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 No 40 points is an anomoly. Thor's hammer is a myth. Technically you could get 57 points and still be relegated. And already two steps ahead of you sir. I posted the following back in March to widespread acclaim: **** We probably shouldn’t get too carried away. Here’s a list of where the Championship winners finished in their first season in the prem over the last 10 years: 2005 Sunderland: 20th 2006 Reading: 8th 2007 Sunderland: 15th 2008 WBA: 20th 2009 Wolves: 15th 2010 Newcastle: 12th 2011 QPR: 17th 2012 Reading: 19th 2013: Cardiff: 19th currently If you ignore Newcastle as an anomaly due to the huge statue of the club, then it’s only Reading who have bucked the trend and been comfortable in their first season. Not saying that we couldn’t do it, but it would be tough without quality re-inforcements in key areas: (Striker and Centre-back for me) "If you ignore Newcastle and Reading ..." Those two sides are the only ones out of that list who broke past 100 points. Just like we've just done ourselves. We've given ourselves the best possible chance to do well next season, and (depending on the fixture list) I can see us being safe after 35 games.
Les-TA-Jon Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 I think the bottom line is we need 36-40 points to be safe. To get something like 38 points over 38 games that could look like: - 12 Wins, 2 Draws, 24 Losses - 10 Wins, 8 Draws, 20 Losses So on and so on.... I think we're capable of pulling together the 8-12 wins required and then drawing a few games here and there. For example, here's a look at the teams that finished 13th-17th (W/D/L) West Ham - 11/7/20 Sunderland - 10/8/20 Villa - 10/8/20 Hull - 10/7/21 West Brom - 7/15/16 The really reassuring thing here is that we could feasibly lose as many as 20 or some games, or win as little as 8-10 and still be fine.
Fox92 Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 We've known all along, every year, that the target should be 40-50 points. Somewhere in between. Just need to make sure we beat teams like West Ham, Stoke, Villa, West Brom, Hull, Swansea at home etc. The games against the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United we'll just have to "enjoy" because we're finally back but if we get anything from those games its an added bonus. Hope the fixture list is kind to us in 17 games and we can get off to a decent start.
Happy Fox Posted 1 June 2014 Author Posted 1 June 2014 Teams finishing 18th past 10 seasons 2013/2014 Norwich 33 points 2012/2013 Wigan 36 points 2011/2012 Bolton 36 points 2010/2011 Birmingham City 39 points 2009/2010 Burnley 30 points 2008/2009 Newcastle United 34 points 2007/2008 Reading 36 points 2006/2007 Sheffield United 38 points 2005/2006 Birmingham City 34 points 2004/2005 Crystal Palace 33 points Average points needed is 35 (1.d.p)
Guest ttfn Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 We've known all along, every year, that the target should be 40-50 points. Somewhere in between. Just need to make sure we beat teams like West Ham, Stoke, Villa, West Brom, Hull, Swansea at home etc. The games against the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United we'll just have to "enjoy" because we're finally back but if we get anything from those games its an added bonus. Hope the fixture list is kind to us in 17 games and we can get off to a decent start. The fixture list is absolutely crucial. As much of a poor job as he did, Di Canio was on a hiding to nothing this season because after Fulham on the opening day (which they lost), Sunderland's next 7 home games were something like Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Spurs, Newcastle, Arsenal and Liverpool. This meant it was an inevitability that they wouldn't have many points by Christmas. If we can get 5 or 6 of last year's bottom half/promoted sides at home before the New Year it would be a big bonus.
MooseBreath Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 Back in January/February time I was pushing the extrapolation of current points per game technique as the most reliable way to work out probable finishing points tallies. I had 3rd place finishing on 86 I believe, and derby finished on 85. Therefore I see no reason why we shouldn't use the same technique again. So the current 18th place team is on 0pts. If you extrapolate that then you get them finishing on 0pts, hence we need approximately 1 point to stay up based on current season form.
Fox92 Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 The fixture list is absolutely crucial. As much of a poor job as he did, Di Canio was on a hiding to nothing this season because after Fulham on the opening day (which they lost), Sunderland's next 7 home games were something like Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Spurs, Newcastle, Arsenal and Liverpool. This meant it was an inevitability that they wouldn't have many points by Christmas. If we can get 5 or 6 of last year's bottom half/promoted sides at home before the New Year it would be a big bonus. Yeah I agree, that's the point I was kind of making. On the other hand, we don't want to be in the situation Norwich were in either playing the best four teams hoping to stay up.
Fox Ulike Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 Back in January/February time I was pushing the extrapolation of current points per game technique as the most reliable way to work out probable finishing points tallies. I had 3rd place finishing on 86 I believe, and derby finished on 85. Therefore I see no reason why we shouldn't use the same technique again. So the current 18th place team is on 0pts. If you extrapolate that then you get them finishing on 0pts, hence we need approximately 1 point to stay up based on current season form. And approximately 1 point needed to be crowned Champions?
DANGEROUS TIGER Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 Let's just enjoy the closed season, before we start to worry.
Fox92 Posted 1 June 2014 Posted 1 June 2014 Let's just enjoy the closed season, before we start to worry. But we must worry! That's what Foxestalk is here for!
Tommythefox06 Posted 4 June 2014 Posted 4 June 2014 Just so everyone is aware, we will have to play each team in the division both at home and away over the course of the season
sylofox Posted 4 June 2014 Posted 4 June 2014 Simples. Win the first 14 42pts safe by xmas shut up shop and all book a late season holiday. No need to finish the season.
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