The wisdom of crowds. An experiment.

[Webbo]

An idea from this thread. http://www.foxestalk.co.uk/forums/topic/101848-someone-with-more-time-and-brain-cells-than-me/page-1

 

William Hill are offering £50 million for a £2 stake if you can predict the the table exactly at  for the end of the season. Just as an experiment If we make our predictions in here and then produce a final table based on the average position of all the posts (am I explaining this okay?) and then see at the end of the season. I'll make a final table Friday night/Saturday morning, so that if anyone want to have a flutter on our results they can.

 

This season's teams.

 

 

Arsenal

Aston Villa

Bournemouth

Chelsea

Crystal Palace

Everton

Leicester City

Liverpool

Manchester City

Manchester United

Newcastle United

Norwich City

Southampton

Stoke City

Sunderland

Swansea City

Tottenham Hotspur

Watford

West Bromwich Albion

West Ham United 

 

 

 

[RedSoxUK]

Chelsea

Manchester United

Manchester City

Arsenal

Liverpool

Tottenham Hotspur

Stoke City

Southampton

Swansea City

Everton

Leicester City

Crystal Palace

West Ham United 

Newcastle United

West Bromwich Albion

Aston Villa

Norwich City

Bournemouth

Sunderland

Watford

[Webbo]

My predictions;

 

1)Chelsea

2)Arsenal

3)Manchester United

4)Manchester City

5)Southampton

6)Tottenham Hotspur

7)Liverpool

8)Swansea City

9)Everton

10)Stoke City

11)Crystal Palace

12)West Bromwich Albion

13)Newcastle United

14)Leicester City

15)Aston Villa

16)West Ham United 

17)Norwich City

18)Sunderland

19)Watford

20)Bournemouth

 

[Bayfox]

Someone good at maths. How many permutations of this can there be.

You can enter 250 times.

So clearly a lot.

[Webbo]

Someone good at maths. How many permutations of this can there be.

You can enter 250 times.

So clearly a lot.

Millions to one apparently.

[Fez of Mahrez]

1. Chelsea

2. Manchester United

3. Arsenal

4. Manchester City

5. Liverpool

6. Tottenham

7. Everton

8. Southampton

9. Crystal Palace

10. Stoke

11. Swansea

12. West Brom

13. Aston Villa

14. Newcastle

15. Leicester

16. Bournemouth

17. Sunderland

18. West Ham

19. Watford

20. Norwich

[Kitchandro]

1)Chelsea

2)Manchester City

3)Arsenal

4)Manchester United

5)Tottenham Hotspur

6)Liverpool

7)Southampton

8)Stoke City

9)Everton

10)Swansea City

11)Crystal Palace

12)Newcastle United

13)West Ham United

14)Leicester City

15)Bournemouth

16)Aston Villa

17)West Bromwich Albion

18)Norwich City

19)Sunderland

20)Watford

[EnderbyFox]

 1) Chelsea

 2) Manchester United

 3) Arsenal

 4) Manchester City

 5) Spurs

 6) Liverpool

 7) Southampton

 8) Everton

 9) Stoke

10)Crystal Palace

11) Swansea

12) West Ham

13) Newcastle

14) West Brom

15) Leicester

16) Norwich

17) Sunderland

18) Aston Villa

19) Watford

20) Bournemouth

[Mark_w]

1. Chelsea
2. Manchester United
3. Manchester City
4. Arsenal
5. Liverpool
6. Tottenham
7. Everton
8. Southampton
9. Swansea
10. West Brom
11. Stoke
12. Newcastle
13. West Ham
14. Norwich
15. Crystal Palace
16. Bournemouth
17. Aston Villa
18. Watford
19. Sunderland
20. Leicester

[Aus Fox]

Arsenal

Chelsea

Man City

Man Utd

Everton

Spurs

Liverpool

Stoke

Crystal Palace

Southampton

Swansea

Newcastle

Villa

Leicester

Sunderland

WBA

Watford

West Ham

Norwich

Bournmemouth

[red fox]

1. Arsenal

2. Chelski

3. Man Utd

4. Man CIty

5. Liverpool

6. Tottenham

7. Stoke

8. Crystal Palace

9. Swansea

10. Southampton.

11. Everton

12. Sunderland

13. Newcastle

14. Bournemouth

15. West Brom

16. Norwich

17. Leicester

18. Aston Villa

19. West Ham

20. Watford

[SomalianFox15]

1.Chelsea

2.Arsenal

3.Man City

4.Man Utd

5.Spurs

6.Liverpool

7.Everton

8.Southampton

9.Swansea

10.Stoke

11.Crystal Palace

12.West Ham

13.Leicester

14.West Brom

15.Norwich

16.Newcastle

17.Sunderland

18. Aston Villa

19.Bournemouth

20.Watford

[fleckneymike]

Wisdom, here?

[sdb]

Chelsea

Man City

Arsenal

Utd

Liverpool

Spurs

Everton

Southampton

Swansea

Palace

Newcastle

West Ham

Stoke

West Brom

Sunderland

Villa

Norwich

Leicester

Watford

Bournemouth

[Wilson_6]

Gotta have a bash on this.

[gerrytaggart]

1 Chelsea

2 Manchester city

3 Arsenal

4 Manchester united

5 Tottenham

6 Liverpool

7 Everton

8 Leicester

9 Swansea

10 West ham

11 Southampton

12 Crystal palace

13 Aston villa

14 Newcastle

15 West brom

16 Stoke

17 Watford

18 Sunderland

19 Bournmouth

20 Norwich

[Guest Kopfkino]

Someone good at maths. How many permutations of this can there be.

You can enter 250 times.

So clearly a lot.

Well it's just 20! on a calculator which comes to 2432902008176640000 but obviously you can rule out so many unrealistic ones

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

Let me see  Hmm Hmm. Hmm. Hmm. multiply by hmm. Hmm. Divide by Hmm. Hmm. Hmm. Hmm. plus err. Err. Um. Yes! add 3628, and divide by Hmm. Hmm Hmm. Take the square route of , err. Umm. Oh! That can't be right. Ah yes, err no, umm. Hmm.

 

It's pretty long odds, I guess?     

[Kinowe Soorie]

Chelsea

Man City

Arsenal

Utd

Liverpool

Spurs

Everton

Southampton

Swansea

Palace

Newcastle

West Ham

Stoke

West Brom

Sunderland

Villa

Norwich

Leicester

Watford

Bournemouth

What?

[Jakemoore]

1. Chelsea

2. Man city

3. Arsenal

4. Man u

5. Liverpool

6. Spurs

7. Swansea

8. Southampton

9. Everton

10. Stoke

11. Westham

12. Palace

13. Newcastle

14. Leicester city

15. West Brom

16. Aston Villa

17. Bournemouth

18. Sunderland

19. Watford

20. Norwich

[pSinatra]

Chelsea

Arsenal

Man United

Man City

Southampton

Liverpool

Tottenham

Stoke

Swansea

Everton

Crystal Palace

Leicester City

Newcastle

West Bromwich

Sunderland

Bournemouth

West Ham United

Watford

Aston Villa

Norwich

[EnglishOxide]

1. Arsenal

2. Man Utd

3. Chelsea

4. Spurs

5. Man City

6. Stoke

7. Liverpool

8. Everton

9. Southampton

10. Newcastle

11. Palace

12. Leicester

13. Swansea

14. Aston Villa

15. Watford

16. West Brom

17. Sunderland

18. Norwich

19. West Ham

20. Bournemouth

[Dan]

1. Chelsea

2. Manchester United

3. Arsenal

4. Manchester City

5. Liverpool

6. Tottenham

7. Southampton

8. Swansea

9. Stoke

10. Everton

11. Crystal Palace

12. Aston Villa

13. Watford

14. West Ham

15. West Brom

16. Leicester

17. Norwich

18. Newcastle

19. Bournemouth

20. Sunderland

[Harry5]

1. Chelsea

2. Arsenal

3. Manchester United

4. Manchester City

5. Liverpool

6. Tottenham Hotspur

7. Southampton

8. Stoke City

9. Crystal Palace

10. Swansea City

11. Everton

12. West Ham United

13. Newcastle United

14. Leicester City

15. Aston Villa

16. West Bromwich Albion

17. Sunderland

18. Bournemouth

19. Watford

20. Norwich City

[shailen]

If you assume the outcome to be purely random the odds are 20! or 2.43x10¹⁸ . But we almost know that the top four will be the same and teams like Liverpool and Spurs will be there or there abouts. So really the odds are less than that but you can't quantify the exact ones.