How many points is enough for safety?

[Bob Weasel Fox]

36 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

We aren't safe yet.

This

[sylofox]

1 more point than 18th is enough for safety. Other than that only hindsight will tell us.

[maddog]

39 points will definitely be enough and 36 might already be.

 

Personally we should be targeting finishing above West Brom.

[Guest Col city fan]

Having just looked at the table, it would take a monumental fook up now for us to end in the bottom three.

Sunderland are doomed, Borough are shite. They'll both go. Swansea probably the final one.

[Guest Col city fan]

11 minutes ago, sylofox said:

1 more point than 18th is enough for safety. Other than that only hindsight will tell us.

Master of the bleeding obvious! C'mon Welly!

[Alf Bentley]

Another way of looking at this.....

 

Winnable games remaining for the 3 clubs currently most likely to finish 18th, with potential points totals (assuming no points v. top 6 teams):

- Palace: Leicester (H), Burnley (H), Hull (H) -> 7pts -> Total 38pts

- Hull: Stoke (A), Watford (H), Southampton (A), Sunderland (H), Palace (A) -> 8pts -> Total 38pts 

- Swansea: Watford (A), Stoke (H), Everton (H), Sunderland (A), WBA (H) -> 9pts -> Total 37pts

Surprise results could make those predictions optimistic or pessimistic.

 

If we then assume that Burnley, Stoke, West Ham & Bournemouth each manage at least 1 win in their last 6 games, that puts all of them on at least 38-39 points

 

We need at least 1 more win.....could be "squeaky bum time" if we leave it until Watford or, God forbid, the final day v. Bournemouth.....

 

 

[themightyfin]

We have enough already. 36 points is enough with Swansea and Hulls goal difference.

No way are Swansea going to win Half of their remaining games to go above us. Even then we would only need a point.

 

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, themightyfin said:

We have enough already. 36 points is enough with Swansea and Hulls goal difference.

No way are Swansea going to win Half of their remaining games to go above us. Even then we would only need a point.

 

 

There's a good chance that you'll be right....but I wouldn't want to have too much money on Swansea not getting 3 wins out of their remaining fixtures.......

Watford (A) - mediocre team

Stoke (H) - in freefall

Man Utd (A) - probable defeat

Everton (H) - may have nothing to play for by then

Sunderland (A) - dismally bad & will be relegated by then

WBA (H) - will have nothing to play for

 

 

[tylesta]

Never say never remember the year before last don't write anyone off till its over

[Guest]

over the past few seasons 38 has been the average survival. so you could say 2 more points, however 40 is always the magic number for survival so I believe.

 

However I would like to see 4 more wins we are guaranteed survival 

[AmarteyAndChill]

42 imo, anything less then it may get nervy 

[Gerard]

52 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

There's a good chance that you'll be right....but I wouldn't want to have too much money on Swansea not getting 3 wins out of their remaining fixtures.......

Watford (A) - mediocre team

Stoke (H) - in freefall

Man Utd (A) - probable defeat

Everton (H) - may have nothing to play for by then

Sunderland (A) - dismally bad & will be relegated by then

WBA (H) - will have nothing to play for

 

 

 

Agree with this, at this stage of the season you can't rely on anybody. Teams that have barely had a win all season all of a sudden find Champions League qualification form. The form book goes out the window as teams with nothing left to play for switch off and teams that are desperate for points up their level.

 

I would still play a reserve team against Palace though and put everything into the Atletico Madrid matches and take a calculated risk with relegation.

 

Chances are we may already have enough points or only 1-3 points from safety. Even when we were 2-1 up yesterday I'd have taken a draw as that point was still a huge step to safety.

[Chico1958]

I'll go for the 40 points as that makes sense

 

Has anybody ever been relegated on 40 points......... Honest question ?

[ARM1968]

None in the bottom 3 will get more than 35pts. 

[HighPeakFox]

57 minutes ago, Chico1958 said:

I'll go for the 40 points as that makes sense

 

Has anybody ever been relegated on 40 points......... Honest question ?

Not read the thread then? Yes, they have.

[Guest CityFan 06]

I'm still cautious, I mean I'm glad we've got 36 pts but I still think we need possibly another two wins which would take us to 42 pts. I don't think we're going to go down but just hope we continue getting the points as we could easily get dragged in again if others teams start winning and we start losing. It's such a tight league this year.

 

As I said, I do not think we'll be relegated, but we mustn't take our foot off the gas yet, or ever really in football. 

[Thracian]

More than we've got at the moment!

 

But 39 would be my guess, assuming our goal difference remains positive. . 

[weller54]

29 minutes ago, Thracian said:

More than we've got at the moment!

 

But 39 would be my guess, assuming our goal difference remains positive. . 

Our best hope for 3pts(and help  our goal difference) is home to Twatford.. They look abysmal!... 

[RODNEY FERNIO]

Still think we need another two wins. Skating on thin ice if you are of the opinion that 36-38 points is enough.

[Corky]

Four more should be enough, that would require Swansea to win four in their last six which is a big ask.

[FoxinNotts]

39

[FoxinNotts]

3 more

[FoxinNotts]

3 more points, from 7 games.

Doable

[Chico1958]

2 hours ago, HighPeakFox said:

Not read the thread then? Yes, they have.

Obviously not............... but I'm still not clear whether we are talking 22 Teams or 20 ?

 

Answered it myself:

 

Bolton                 40

Sunderland         40

West Ham           42

 

Cheers   

[rn9013]

4 more points would mean Swansea would have to win 4 out of 6 games. So personally I think 40 gets us safety. Frankly if we can't get 4 points from 7 games we will have had a disaster.