AKCJ Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Voted in, but was pretty undecided. If in doubt put remain, things are the same and the other option might not be all flowers and sunshine like some think. It's important that people realise that we will have other opportunities to get out in the future if we decide to remain but those opportunities aren't so likely if we choose to leave now but decide we rant to rejoin if things don't go well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Did you see that poll from Kent that I posted? All the less well-off, more marginal Tory seats, which had been Lab under Blair/Brown, had solid Leave majorities. Sorry I did, we also have serious flooding in heavy parts of Kent which could cause some disruption to the vote down there and see a lower turnout than usual. I also thought about Glastonbury as well and wondered whether that would have an effect given the stereotype of a left wing audience, although Half Man Half Biscuit could be right on this. (that's just for you as I know you're a fan) You call Glastonbury “Glasto”You’d like to go there one day When they’ve put up the gun towers To keep the hippies away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 It's important that people realise that we will have other opportunities to get out in the future I will be absolutely astonished if any government (aside from a UKIP maj, which isn't happening) ever puts this on the table again, if they knew it was going to be this close they would never have offered it inthe first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beliall Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Made my mark. Polling station busier than at the general election. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKCJ Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 I will be absolutely astonished if any government (aside from a UKIP maj, which isn't happening) ever puts this on the table again, if they knew it was going to be this close they would never have offered it inthe first place. Well yeah, but if things turn sour then it might well not be this close either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 I wonder whether that's true? Doesn't it under-estimate the influence of socioeconomic factors? Did you see that poll from Kent that I posted? All the less well-off, more marginal Tory seats, which had been Lab under Blair/Brown, had solid Leave majorities. In contrast, the well-off stockbroker belt Tory safe seats with massive majorities were marginally pro-Remain. Harborough is quite a well-off area, isn't it? OK, maybe a lot of older people voting Leave - and in the Leave column overall. But I'd expect a much bigger Leave vote in less prosperous areas like Leics NW....& in struggling Lab areas further north. Very well off and aging ! Harborough will vote remain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Those two possibilities are not exclusive. I know my priest told me in confession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Pound now $1.49 Remain it is I've heard they've all got tiny willies. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 My postal vote went in over a week ago with my wife's to leave, I will be extremely surprised if we win because the majority of people in so many aspects of life are frightened of change, and for that reason it will be a sad conclusion. That's not why I and any other remain voter I've spoken to has voted to stay. Comments like that are just moronic and disrespectful as calling all leave voters xenophobic and racist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgy Bob Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 In the event of a remain vote let's hope those disappointed leave voters to whom this kind of direct democracy is rightly held in high regard take it with good grace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Len Finsbury Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 I'm interested to see what the turn out is. Many people don't bother voting in general elections because of the 'all as bad as each other' factor. A simple in/out referendum may attract many more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Len Finsbury Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 You are aware if vote leave does win, the goverment have no obligation to leave. So they could turn round, stick the v's up and say we are staying anyway. Even as a Remain voter, this would be disgusting and completely undemocratic. The Conservatives would sink faster than the Lib Dems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 When remain is confirmed I expect the Tory party to disintegrate into civil war ! Boris and Gove are done for ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Even as a Remain voter, this would be disgusting and completely undemocratic. The Conservatives would sink faster than the Lib Dems! Staying in the Eu and the Tories falling apart? Why didn't I vote leave?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 I reckon one of the features of this referendum will be massive disparities between different regions - and different age groups, socioeconomic groups etc. I've been and voted Remain, by some distance the better of 2 gambles on the future. But I might prefer a big national vote for Leave to a 51%-49% split, leading to long-term bitterness between different regions, social groups, age groups etc, It wouldn't surprise me if some regions were 65%+ Remain and others 65%+ Leave. Votes are initially counted by council, but are then pooled into 12 regions. I'll have a go at predicting them (egg on face later); feel free to join in the fun! Scotland: 64% Remain Wales: 51% Remain N. Ireland: 58% Remain NE: 56% Leave Yorks/Humber: 55% Leave NW: 54% Remain W. Midlands: 52% Remain E. Midlands: 52% Leave East: 58% Leave London: 63% Remain SE: 54% Leave SW: 51% Leave I suspect that equates to a narrow Remain overall, but I'm not at all confident that will happen. Odds of 1/9 for Remain are bollocks, I reckon. What's that based on? The assumption that undecided voters will support the status quo? In lots of areas, Leave will be seen as the "accepted majority opinion" - in some areas because it is, in other areas because Leave supporters tend to be more committed, more vocal. Differential turnout might tell us something early on: higher turnout in Scotland/London helps Remain, higher turnout in E/SE & parts of the North helps Leave, I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Sorry I did, we also have serious flooding in heavy parts of Kent which could cause some disruption to the vote down there and see a lower turnout than usual. I also thought about Glastonbury as well and wondered whether that would have an effect given the stereotype of a left wing audience, although Half Man Half Biscuit could be right on this. (that's just for you as I know you're a fan) You call Glastonbury “Glasto”You’d like to go there one day When they’ve put up the gun towers To keep the hippies away If English nationalists focused their national pride on stuff like Half Man Half Biscuit, instead of Morris Dancers and "No surrender to the IRA", I might become an English nationalist. I wondered about the impact of 180,000 people (or whatever) being at Glastonbury. Mind you, these days a lot of them are green-welly Hooray Henriettas from Surrey with hampers, not pot-smoking Communist hippies, aren't they? DK how the green welly & hamper vote breaks down.... As for torrential rain and floods, that seems to be in London & in Kent/Essex, so might affect both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScouseFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 is there an app you can vote on cba actually going somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 When remain is confirmed I expect the Tory party to disintegrate into civil war ! Boris and Gove are done for ! Given the Conservative party is solidly Eurosceptic by membership I'd expect the opposite and unless Cameron has a serious cabinet reshuffle he could be done for, I think the chancellor has already signed his own death warrant when he threatened the voters with his punishment budget. Both the main parties could seriously suffer from this, Labour could lose a million plus working class votes to UKIP over this referendum, they are the only party you can guarantee will benefit in the event of a remain vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox92 Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Easy vote for me. Remain. The EU didn't close our mines or outsource our steel industry or contribute to the poor running of the National Health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Countryfox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Easy vote for me. Remain. The EU didn't close our mines or outsource our steel industry or contribute to the poor running of the National Health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apple987 Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Wonder why the odds are now 1/10 for remain. I'm thinking these were the true odds All along, but the bookies wanted to make it seem close so leave don't become complacent. Sounds ridiculous but the bookies want to be in EU more than anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 23 June 2016 Author Share Posted 23 June 2016 Wonder why the odds are now 1/10 for remain. I'm thinking these were the true odds All along, but the bookies wanted to make it seem close so leave don't become complacent. Sounds ridiculous but the bookies want to be in EU more than anyone else. The bookies may well want to be in the EU - but that wouldn't drive their odds. An odds move on a two way market suggests a weight of money being put on a Remain result and to me, alongside the stock market moves (who did their own private polling remember) makes me think these are strong indicators to what the result it likely to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brizzle Fox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 1/12 to remain on PP now. 17/2 to leave. Had a small wager on the latter to at least soften the blow if there is a surprise....although probably should have specified any winnings to be paid in Euros as sterling will probably crash as a result! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Railway Man Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Easy vote for me. Remain. The EU didn't close our mines or outsource our steel industry or contribute to the poor running of the National Health. So you voted to stay in the organisation that refuses to allow state aid for national industry and ignored dumping of Chinese steel that helped destroy our steel industry because it didn't outsource our steel industry? We shouldn't be allowed to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 When remain is confirmed I expect the Tory party to disintegrate into civil war ! Boris and Gove are done for ! That might make this all worthwhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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