Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Charl91]

1 minute ago, Thracian said:

I've given reasons why I'm sceptical or downright disbelieving of certain stats, including the many thousands of sexual crime allegations which the authorities admitted to not investigating. But if you've information to suggest the sexual crime figures or any others are convincing and can be porplerly relied on by all means fire away (metaphorically, of course).      

 

So it's a choice between...

 

A) Many well documented nation-wide statistics, going back many years

B) Thracian's gut feeling

 

Hmmm. 

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Charl91 said:

 

So it's a choice between...

 

A) Many well documented nation-wide statistics, going back many years

B) Thracian's gut feeling

 

Hmmm. 

Sounds like the cuts to the police budget hasn't done any harm?

[Charl91]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

Sounds like the cuts to the police budget hasn't done any harm?

 

I can't say, I don't work in the police force.

[Thracian]

Just now, Charl91 said:

 

So it's a choice between...

 

A) Many well documented nation-wide statistics, going back many years

B) Thracian's gut feeling

 

Hmmm. 

So you're effectively saying the admission of thousands of alleged sex crimes not being investigated was made up for some reason?

 

If you asked me to estimate how many fans were in the King Power on a particular day but I admitted to not counting anyone in the West Stand, how would my assessment be convincing?     

[katieakita]

With Thracian on this regarding crime statistics and what is classed as serious crime anyway, in the last month I have had an old boy in his 80's trying to withdraw £42K, his life savings to pay for guttering a couple trying to send 1k and 1.5k overseas to friends they have never met and a couple trying to send £50 each to claim their Spanish lottery wins having never bought a ticket and had a mate unable to get a Police visit to arrest a woman trying to cash fake Travellers cheques and a shop near me reckons they have lost a couple of grand in the last month to shoplifting.  

[Guest]

Not sticking around to listen to the bile of the right but thought I'd give them a chance to watch the next PM in action.

[Alf Bentley]

30 minutes ago, Strokes said:

We will have to wait and see on that I guess, but I don't see why we can't negotiate a mutually good deal. Why does it have to favour one more than the other? I can see that it will always benefit one more but the terms should always be equal.

Getting a trade deal with the US could be beneficial if we wish to start manufacturing on a large scale again, as people have pointed out we need raw materials to be competitive and that could well be a route for them. It's hard to speculate how much we can offer them and them is until we know on what terms we will be trading with the EU but it doesn't feel like we will have to be quite so isolated now. Which for me seems to be a positive.

 

Yes. I'm sure it'll take time for any of this trade stuff to become clearer - with the prospects and terms of any UK-EU trade deal becoming clearer before those of a US-UK deal.

 

There'd have to be some perceived benefit in a UK-US deal for us to sign it, but I wonder about the scale of the concessions we'd have to make to gain such benefits. When they were negotiating with the EU, the US were particularly keen on Europe reducing its food standards to allow US agribusiness / food processors to boost exports. They also wanted European nations to outsource health services to US health corporations. A price worth paying?

 

I suppose the reason why a trade deal has to favour the US, not the UK, is the realpolitik of the economic balance of power. The US has 5 times as many people and its economy is more than 6 times bigger than ours - so access to their market is much more valuable to us than access to our market is to them....so they're able to demand much more than we are. 

 

I'm curious as to which US raw materials we'd import for manufacturing - and whether they'd be cheaper to import from the US than from, say, Europe (lower transport costs) or Africa/Asia (lower labour costs)? The US already has cheap access to US raw materials and US manufacturing isn't exactly thriving.  I wonder in which manufacturing sectors we could become much more competitive globally - and which export markets we'd be serving? Unless we get an exceptionally good trade deal with the EU (requiring major UK concessions), we're set to become less competitive in our main export market. Are there many sectors in which we'll be able to compete in China, India, Japan or elsewhere instead? 

 

Two questions for people optimistic about our post-Brexit economic future based on new global trade deals:

- Which goods or services do you see us exporting a lot more of?

- Which countries will we export them to? 

[Strokes]

54 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Yes. I'm sure it'll take time for any of this trade stuff to become clearer - with the prospects and terms of any UK-EU trade deal becoming clearer before those of a US-UK deal.

 

There'd have to be some perceived benefit in a UK-US deal for us to sign it, but I wonder about the scale of the concessions we'd have to make to gain such benefits. When they were negotiating with the EU, the US were particularly keen on Europe reducing its food standards to allow US agribusiness / food processors to boost exports. They also wanted European nations to outsource health services to US health corporations. A price worth paying?

 

I suppose the reason why a trade deal has to favour the US, not the UK, is the realpolitik of the economic balance of power. The US has 5 times as many people and its economy is more than 6 times bigger than ours - so access to their market is much more valuable to us than access to our market is to them....so they're able to demand much more than we are. 

 

I'm curious as to which US raw materials we'd import for manufacturing - and whether they'd be cheaper to import from the US than from, say, Europe (lower transport costs) or Africa/Asia (lower labour costs)? The US already has cheap access to US raw materials and US manufacturing isn't exactly thriving.  I wonder in which manufacturing sectors we could become much more competitive globally - and which export markets we'd be serving? Unless we get an exceptionally good trade deal with the EU (requiring major UK concessions), we're set to become less competitive in our main export market. Are there many sectors in which we'll be able to compete in China, India, Japan or elsewhere instead? 

 

Two questions for people optimistic about our post-Brexit economic future based on new global trade deals:

- Which goods or services do you see us exporting a lot more of?

- Which countries will we export them to? 

My thought about manufacturing was to service ourselves more so than to trade and in the event of a no deal with the EU, so hypothetically raw materials may be cheaper to import from the US with a trade deal. I've not fact checked but it was more of a query as to whether it might be of use than a thought out proposal.

For all the potential negatives, and concern, there could also be a decent opportunity with this. The NHS will definitely need tailoring to suit us and I know this was a concern you rightly raised from ttip, however it may not of been of such importance to EU negotiatiors as no other countries have a similar health care system, so it could have been put in with little resistance.

Its still good news for the country that this is being openly talked about, it may even help in brexit negotiations.

Edited 8 July 2017 by Strokes

[Izzy]

2 hours ago, toddybad said:

Not sticking around to listen to the bile of the right but thought I'd give them a chance to watch the next PM in action.

Sorry, I got a bit bored after 3 minutes and 137 mentions of the word 'solidarity' 

[Guest]

53 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

Sorry, I got a bit bored after 3 minutes and 137 mentions of the word 'solidarity' 

I guess wanting a one word soundbite which you can parrot for weeks on end is a Tory trait.

[Buce]

1 hour ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

Sorry, I got a bit bored after 3 minutes and 137 mentions of the word 'solidarity' 

 

Sounds like somebody went over par today..

[Izzy]

6 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Sounds like somebody went over par today..

 yes indeed mate, severely over par today thanks...

[Buce]

 

Another blow for Brexit UK:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/08/german-industry-warns-uk-over-brexit

 

German industry has warned Britain not to rely on its help in securing a good Brexit deal, in a stark intervention that strikes a blow at the government’s EU departure plans.

Senior ministers have repeatedly claimed since the election that Germany’s powerful exporters will exert pressure for a deal handing Britain substantial access to the EU’s markets.

However, ministers are told today that it is up to the British government to limit the economic fallout from its decision to leave the single market. With the government facing new pressure from business to soften its Brexit plans, German industrialists also warn that Britain will struggle to avoid economic damage as a result of exiting the bloc.

 

Two of Germany’s biggest industry groups have told the Observer that their main concern during the Brexit process is protecting the single market for the remaining 27 members, even if this harms trade with Britain.

Dieter Kempf, president of the BDI, the federation of German industries, said: “Defending the single market, a key European project, must be the priority for the European Union. Europe must maintain the integrity of the single market and its four freedoms: goods, capital, services, and labour.

“It is the responsibility of the British government to limit the damage on both sides of the Channel. Over the coming months, it will be extraordinarily difficult to avert negative effects on British businesses in particular.”

 

And Ingo Kramer, president of the confederation of German employers’ associations (BDA), told the Observer: “The single market is one of the major assets of the EU. Access to the single market requires the acceptance of all four single market freedoms.

 

“The UK will remain a very important partner for us, but we need a fair deal for both sides respecting this principle. The cohesion of the remaining 27 EU member states has highest priority.”

Their comments come just weeks after David Davis, the Brexit secretary, said his claim before the referendum, that German industry would put pressure on Angela Merkel, the chancellor, to hand Britain a good Brexit deal, was “where [the negotiations] will end up”.

A government spokeswoman said: “While we will be leaving the single market and the EU customs union, we want to achieve a comprehensive free trade agreement that allows for the most frictionless possible trade. The government has been clear that we want to ensure a smooth implementation of our new partnership with the European Union that is in the interests of businesses in the UK and across the EU.”

British business has called on the government to consider a transition deal allowing the UK to remain in the single market and customs union for the time being. The call was rejected but several sources have told the Observer that key ministers are warming to the idea of a much more comprehensive transition deal than was previously envisaged.

Under one plan being pushed inside government, Britain would demand a broad agreement for a final Brexit deal and a specific date on which it would kick in. It could then accept a comprehensive transition deal in which the UK stayed in the single market and found a compromise on the customs union, allowing it to negotiate its own trade deals. Several sources said that Davis was taking an increasingly “pragmatic view” on the idea – but that the transition period must last no more than two or three years. However, a source close to Davis said his thinking had not changed significantly.

European businesses are also pushing Britain to stay in the single market and customs union until a final Brexit deal is hammered out.

 

Markus Beyrer, director general of the BusinessEurope group that represents companies in 34 European countries including the UK, said: “We want a good deal for business, which means an orderly Brexit and an orderly transition to the future relationship,.

“A solution that ensures the UK will remain in the customs union and the single market for the duration of the transition period, with all appropriate rights and obligations, would help provide citizens and business with more certainty and predictability.”

While German industry remains firmly behind Merkel’s insistence that Britain cannot retain the benefits of EU membership from outside the bloc, Brexit campaigners believe that it will shift its position when the details of a deal are actually hammered out.

John Longworth, the former director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce who campaigned for Brexit, said: “The European project is so important to the Germans politically and economically, that the German political establishment are prepared to sacrifice even their own car industry for that outcome.

“That may not stand up to scrutiny when it begins to bite, however. We are their biggest export market. And many businesses in countries outside Germany won’t share their view, either. There will be pressure on governments to compromise.”

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform thinktank, said that even if German business did agitate for a good deal for Britain, there was little evidence Merkel would listen.

“Many of the key policy-makers in Germany do not care what the business lobbies say,” he said. “They care about the principles. One of their principles is that the single market is indivisible. Another is that the British must be seen to pay a price for Brexit, doing less well outside the EU than in it.”

Albrecht Ritschl, an economic history professor at the London School of Economics who has advised the German government, said: “One thing German industry is clearly worried about is the potential disruption on the way to a free trade agreement because it cannot be negotiated within the two-year timeframe. That said, German exporters would also benefit from the harm that a crash-out Brexit would do to UK exports to the EU. The net damage would perhaps be quite small.”

[Guest MattP]

 

6 hours ago, Strokes said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340

 

USA UK trade deal could happen very quickly, a bit of light for us brexiteers.

Disgrace. 

 

EU-Japan potential trade deal, amazing, we need to stay.

 

UK-US potential trade deal - horrible, all our food will be wrong. Donald Trump!!

 

Has anyone got a Guardian article they can show me showing me how bad it can be? 

 

4 hours ago, Buce said:

 

I'm not quite sure what point you're making here, Strokes, but Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Hurry up as I want to come out as racist but can't until it happens.

Edited 8 July 2017 by MattP

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

 yes indeed mate, severely over par today thanks...

 

Maybe you should lower your expectations a bit, mate..

 

[Buce]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

Disgrace. 

 

EU-Japan potential trade deal, amazing, we need to stay.

 

UK-US potential trade deal - horrible, all our food will be wrong. Donald Trump!!

 

Has anyone got a Guardian article they can show me showing me how bad it can be? 

 

Hurry up as I want to come out as racist but can't until it happens.

 

You really should see a shrink about your schizophrenia..

 

Or are you just drunk again?

[Izzy]

4 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Maybe you should lower your expectations a bit, mate..

 

 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Webbo said:

Sounds like the cuts to the police budget hasn't done any harm?

 

Police cuts ‘jeopardising hunt for potential terrorists’

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/08/police-cuts-jeopardising-hunt-potential-terrorists

 

As i know you like a Guardian article. 

 

Going to try to limit my contributions to this thread as i end up too serious and shouty with those of you who vote for policies i consider abhorrent. 

[Guest MattP]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/06/labour-mps-critical-of-corbyn-fear-deselection-after-get-on-board-warning

 

Can this being a real developing story over the next few weeks, doesn't seem to many Labour MP's standing up for Berger either.

 

As awful as I find it (even more so with the anti-semitism that has been directed at her) I can't help but be delighted given the vast majority on the list drawn up by Momentum are ones who voted to stay in the single market.

 

Corbyn is growing on me every day.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/06/labour-mps-critical-of-corbyn-fear-deselection-after-get-on-board-warning

 

Can this being a real developing story over the next few weeks, doesn't seem to many Labour MP's standing up for Berger either.

 

As awful as I find it (even more so with the anti-semitism that has been directed at her) I can't help but be delighted given the vast majority on the list drawn up by Momentum are ones who voted to stay in the single market.

 

Corbyn is growing on me every day.

Astonishing that one of your main reasons for not voting labour is that you perceive them to be a danger to our economy whilst at the same time you cheer lead the leaving of the single market.

 

To be clear, as I have said on numerous occasions, whether we are in or out of the single market becomes unimportant if we are able to agree a deal to give us tariff free access to the single market. 

 

In reality the Tories have taken us to the edge of recession (0.2% growth and on a downward trend) with the lives of everyday people being blighted by falling wages, rising personal debt, generational inequality and business in a state of panic over Brexit. At the same time, every single significant organisation has warned of the economic dangers of Brexit and it is known that every individual that has been chancellor of the exchequer since 1992 is warning of the dangers of leaving the single market without tariff free access. 

 

As for Corbyn, I'm glad to see that you've put the name calling behind you and agree that he should be considered as a potential leader based on the quality of his policies. As he has said many times, tariff free access to the single market is his priority.

 

 

Edited 9 July 2017 by Guest

[Guest MattP]

The Conservatives also are prioritising tariff free access to the single market.

 

Both parties agree leaving the single market is going to happen, in reality it's going to probably come down to how much money we'll have to pay for it. 

 

The whole "jobs first" Brexit line is just rhetoric that means absolutely nothing that you can only get away with in opposition. 

 

I'd like to know what his answer would be to if the European Union refuses that unless we adhere to the four pillars, because he's also committed to seeing freedom of movement end.

 

Not that it matters anyway, it's the Tories who are doing the negotiation.

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, MattP said:

The Conservatives also are prioritising tariff free access to the single market.

 

Both parties agree leaving the single market is going to happen, in reality it's going to probably come down to how much money we'll have to pay for it. 

 

The whole "jobs first" Brexit line is just rhetoric that means absolutely nothing that you can only get away with in opposition. 

 

I'd like to know what his answer would be to if the European Union refuses that unless we adhere to the four pillars, because he's also committed to seeing freedom of movement end.

 

Not that it matters anyway, it's the Tories who are doing the negotiation.

Given the state of the parliament, and also because this is bigger than just one party, I really wish there'd be an attempt to form something across the political spectrum. I fear it is the leavers that won't let this happen as it would bring in much softer brexiteers from the cold. I'm fearful over what the Tories will come up with.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

Given the state of the parliament, and also because this is bigger than just one party, I really wish there'd be an attempt to form something across the political spectrum. I fear it is the leavers that won't let this happen as it would bring in much softer brexiteers from the cold. I'm fearful over what the Tories will come up with.

I would quite happily let Corbyn and McDonnell be involved in the negotiations. 

Edited 9 July 2017 by MattP

[Nick]

Vince coming out now saying what a few of us have been mooting on here for a while... That he can see us not leaving Europe.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40547733

 

 

[Buce]

 

Legal challenge to May's deal with DUP:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/09/theresa-may-dup-deal-legal-challenge-crowdfunded-campaign-good-friday-agreement