Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Webbo said:

 

 

The decision is foolish and illogical but you're not claiming that you're right?

The decision itself was foolish and illogical. You weigh up the two sides of evidence and it's utter madness BUT leavers don't really give reasons for leaving based on evidence - more on faith that things can be different and better. I didn't believe it but that is essentially what the argument was. 

At this point the decision is made. We need to wait and see what the outcome will be. At this point nobody is right or wrong. We wil only know that answer in 5+ years.

For what it's worth, I have no option but to hope you're right!

[Buce]

13 minutes ago, KingGTF said:

 

But Webbo didn't vote for what might happen just after the vote, he voted for what will happen when we leave. You say we haven't left yet anticipating it will go tits up, Webbo says we haven't left yet because the result of his decision to vote to leave can only be when what he voted for has been actioned. I don't see how its acceptable to ask Webbo what is now better, if he can't retort by asking what's worse. The point is, we were told by the Bank of England that after a vote to leave, everything was going to go horribly wrong and they themselves have admitted to a 'Michael Fish moment'. In reality, inflation has gone up a bit, consumers are spending a little less, manufacturers are doing better and that's about it. Whether the catastrophe will happen when we actually leave; well there's no reason it should do but then Hammond and May are giving it a good go.

 

Not quite.

 

Sterling has devalued against the Euro by 13%, against the dollar by 15%.

Inflation is running .7% higher than the Bank of England's target.

House building has slowed to a six-month low because of soaring costs due to the weak pound.

 

[Kopfkino]

2 hours ago, Buce said:

 

Not quite.

 

Sterling has devalued against the Euro by 13%, against the dollar by 15%.

Inflation is running .7% higher than the Bank of England's target.

House building has slowed to a six-month low because of soaring costs due to the weak pound.

 

 

Sterling devaluation is incorporated in me saying inflation has gone up a bit, being as the only noticeable effect for the everyday man is that goods become more expensive which is inflation.

 

But still within the +/- 1% leeway they have. And a target is just that, a target. There's no real reason for it being set at 2%, it was picked in the 90s because high levels were deemed costly and 2% was deemed high enough to eliminate the zero-lower bound problem. Turns out they were wrong. There's been talk of upping inflation targets to 4%. It's relatively arbitrary. Besides, I didn't see too many complaints when it was below target for an extended period, below the 1% leeway in fact. Actually I believe that there was a belief we needed some inflation.

 

That's not actually true. Growth in house-building is at a six-month low but relatively stable. Construction growth is at an 11 month growth, mainly due to slower growth in commercial construction. That's different. 

Edited 3 August 2017 by KingGTF

[Guest]

Really interesting piece about the failures of neo liberalism and how both the left and right are searching for something better. The title seems a bit hyperbolic but it is a decent read. 

 

How Britain fell out of love with the free market

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/aug/04/how-britain-fell-out-of-love-with-the-free-market?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

[Kopfkino]

32 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Really interesting piece about the failures of neo liberalism and how both the left and right are searching for something better. The title seems a bit hyperbolic but it is a decent read. 

 

How Britain fell out of love with the free market

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/aug/04/how-britain-fell-out-of-love-with-the-free-market?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

 

Such arguments are good. No free-marketeer could possibly complain about a challenge to their ideas, competition is a good thing after all 

[Captain...]

I think the biggest impact of article 50 has been exposing our political elite as clueless and ill informed. 

 

Whether it was May's disastrous election campaign or Corbyn's contradictory stance, first Boris then Labour talking of having their cake and eating it, Liam Fox being completely unaware of the consequences of importing chlorine washed chicken. Hammond contradicting the party on transitional period, labour shadow cabinet ministers defying the whip. Davis admitting they haven't even looked at the impact of no deal. We still haven't even concuded the first point in negotiations yet, the "divorce settlement" which (Boris said they could go whistle for) once that is done we just have the 759 treaties to go.

 

We are no clearer now to knowing what post Brexit Britain will look like than we were at the referendum. Britain could thrive outside the EU, but we need a clearer picture to sell ourselves to foreign investors, global organisations and migrant workers. At the moment we look like an absolute shambles and that is not an attractive look to anyone, except those looking to exploit and capitalise on the chaos.

[davieG]

23 minutes ago, Captain... said:

I think the biggest impact of article 50 has been exposing our political elite as clueless and ill informed. 

 

Whether it was May's disastrous election campaign or Corbyn's contradictory stance, first Boris then Labour talking of having their cake and eating it, Liam Fox being completely unaware of the consequences of importing chlorine washed chicken. Hammond contradicting the party on transitional period, labour shadow cabinet ministers defying the whip. Davis admitting they haven't even looked at the impact of no deal. We still haven't even concuded the first point in negotiations yet, the "divorce settlement" which (Boris said they could go whistle for) once that is done we just have the 759 treaties to go.

 

We are no clearer now to knowing what post Brexit Britain will look like than we were at the referendum. Britain could thrive outside the EU, but we need a clearer picture to sell ourselves to foreign investors, global organisations and migrant workers. At the moment we look like an absolute shambles and that is not an attractive look to anyone, except those looking to exploit and capitalise on the chaos.

I came to that conclusion many years ago.

[Rincewind]

7 minutes ago, davieG said:

I came to that conclusion many years ago.

me too. 

[Carl the Llama]

Webbo you must know that unemployment is down because we have more people in bottom-of-the-rung, insecure jobs with no guarantee of hours or income from week to week and it's thanks to draconian DWP policies that our government's been pursuing to the benefit of dodgy business owners across the country since long before the referendum was a twinkle in Cameron's eyes.

 

To claim lower unemployment is a benefit of the decision to leave you have to willfully ignore the facts behind the figures and how inhumanely detrimental the zero-hour scam is to a growing underclass (many of whom would have voted to leave thinking their lack of job security was Brussels' fault), leaving behind a world where your Grandkids' generation are significantly worse off than their parents.  But hey, at least the unemployment number gives us disingenuous reason to suck off the Conservative cock.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, KingGTF said:

 

Such arguments are good. No free-marketeer could possibly complain about a challenge to their ideas, competition is a good thing after all 

I was hoping you'd take a look king. We don't seem to exactly agree on economics but i do value you're contributions even if i wish you were less of a free market purist!

[Captain...]

2 hours ago, davieG said:

I came to that conclusion many years ago.

I had always assumed competence. I thought they were manipulative, dishonest and self serving, but the complete shambles that has followed on from Farage putting the wind up them over Europe has just been staggeringly incompetent. From the moment Dave called the referendum the rug has been pulled out from under these fraudsters.

[Innovindil]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40824819

 

We don't want none of that chlorine cleaned chicken. Let's have fipronil contaminated eggs instead. 

[Kopfkino]

2 hours ago, toddybad said:

I was hoping you'd take a look king. We don't seem to exactly agree on economics but i do value you're contributions even if i wish you were less of a free market purist!

 

 

I'm just skeptical of government's ability to correct what is perceived to be a failure of the market. Political actors are office-seeking so they will usually make decisions based on what will win them votes, which is not necessarily going to result in efficient interventions in the market. Similarly, it's a lot easier to spend money that isn't yours which is what government does and naturally it is inefficient. I think it was Mises that said something along the lines of 'if you reject the free market on grounds of man's moral weakness and fallibility, you must reject every government action for the same reason'. Government is in effect a group of people colluding, most likely under pressure from lobbyists, to make decisions which distort the market using coercion. If that was any other economic actor then it would be seen as wholly disconcerting.

 

That article is written extremely well, providing a great chronology and analysis of the altering ideas. I was particularly interested by the Miliband stuff. It works by actually making you consider it all a bit more. I very much believe that we need to challenge and debate ideas more than we currently do, particularly away from partisan lines. The heckling from both sides, whereby the right are called scum or heartless, and the left are labelled as scroungers or snowflakes, is pathetic and achieves nothing but enforcing a tribal split. I'd have thought the advent of social media would help facilitate debate being as you no longer have to find a stage for it but people don't seem to understand the engagement, respect, and critical thinking. It doesn't help when people see the daily slanging matches in the political arena from people that should know better. And then I really wish academics would crawl out of their holes to engage with each other and instigate real debate rather than publishing a load of self-perpetuating articles of nonsense in an academic journal that is read by 100 people. This is what I like about Friedman, he was more than willing to stand on a stage and eloquently portray and debate his views with an audience of people who he knew fundamentally disagreed with. Now even the students that academics teach aren't considered worth their time, let alone a wider audience. So that article was excellent because it actually sought to engage in a  debate of the ideas behind why we do what we do and how that might be sub-optimal to the point where something else needs to be tried. I personally think Brexit gives us a chance to massively recalibrate our way of doing things in a way we never could as part of the EU, but nobody seems to be making that point.

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Captain... said:

I had always assumed competence. I thought they were manipulative, dishonest and self serving, but the complete shambles that has followed on from Farage putting the wind up them over Europe has just been staggeringly incompetent. From the moment Dave called the referendum the rug has been pulled out from under these fraudsters.

This is what happens when you get career politicians who have barely done anything else, people like Rudd and Truss wouldn't have made a Parliamentary select committee twenty years ago, let alone the cabinet. 

 

Then you look across the floor and see some of the Labour front bench and I genuinely wouldn't trust then to walk a dog let alone a run a country, people like Diane Abbott and Angela Raynor, it isn't even serious.

 

We get the politicians we deserve though, unfortunately we decided a while ago diversity and supposed equality was more important than getting the best people for the job.

[Captain...]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

This is what happens when you get career politicians who have barely done anything else, people like Rudd and Truss wouldn't have made a Parliamentary select committee twenty years ago, let alone the cabinet. 

 

Then you look across the floor and see some of the Labour front bench and I genuinely wouldn't trust then to walk a dog let alone a run a country, people like Diane Abbott and Angela Raynor, it isn't even serious.

 

We get the politicians we deserve though, unfortunately we decided a while ago diversity and supposed equality was more important than getting the best people for the job.

The white males aren't exactly covering themselves with glory, Gove, Johnson, Fox, Hunt, Farron, you don't have many good words to say about Corbyn, McDonnell, Watson, Ashworth, Starmer.

 

Diversity isn't an issue, it is the same incompetent ministers occupying the same safe seats and getting cabinet posts  they have zero qualifications for and have a proven track record of incompetence.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Captain... said:

The white males aren't exactly covering themselves with glory, Gove, Johnson, Fox, Hunt, Farron, you don't have many good words to say about Corbyn, McDonnell, Watson, Ashworth, Starmer.

 

Diversity isn't an issue, it is the same incompetent ministers occupying the same safe seats and getting cabinet posts  they have zero qualifications for and have a proven track record of incompetence.

Well, you only have to look over here to see that white guys are very capable of being incompetent politicians too.

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, Captain... said:

The white males aren't exactly covering themselves with glory, Gove, Johnson, Fox, Hunt, Farron, you don't have many good words to say about Corbyn, McDonnell, Watson, Ashworth, Starmer.

 

Diversity isn't an issue, it is the same incompetent ministers occupying the same safe seats and getting cabinet posts  they have zero qualifications for and have a proven track record of incompetence.

Diversity is massive issue, as soon as you select on the basis of gender or race you limit the talent pool. Labour is openly trying to reach a 50/50 split, if you commit to that you are committed to taking an incompetent women over a competent man on the basis of identity politics.

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Well, you only have to look over here to see that white guys are very capable of being incompetent politicians too.

You could argue the Democrats lost to those because of the determination to select a (also hopelessly incompetent) woman.

[Alf Bentley]

On 8/2/2017 at 15:06, MattP said:

 

P.S @Alf Bentley I haven't seen you for a while, give us all a toot to confirm you are still around and presumably in good health. 

 

Thanks for your concern, Matt.

 

I'm in fine health - or so the Glenfield cardiologist told me yesterday.

Just been busy with stuff recently, so have been on an accidental FT vacation.

Off on a proper vacation to Ireland soon, so won't be on here much for a couple of weeks.

 

Normal service of political arguments, novel-length posts and painful puns will be resumed in due course. 

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Thanks for your concern, Matt.

 

I'm in fine health - or so the Glenfield cardiologist told me yesterday.

Just been busy with stuff recently, so have been on an accidental FT vacation.

Off on a proper vacation to Ireland soon, so won't be on here much for a couple of weeks.

 

Normal service of political arguments, novel-length posts and painful puns will be resumed in due course. 

Good to hear. Have a lovely time, I'm going to Mayo to visit some family next year.

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

You could argue the Democrats lost to those because of the determination to select a (also hopelessly incompetent) woman.

Oh, of course. However, the Repubs have hardly been covering themselves in glory since their victory, have they?

[Guest MattP]

Just now, leicsmac said:

Oh, of course. However, the Repubs have hardly been covering themselves in glory since their victory, have they?

Total shambles, although the country is actually performing well

[Alf Bentley]

Just now, MattP said:

Good to hear. Have a lovely time, I'm going to Mayo to visit some family next year.

 

Not been to Mayo since childhood. Was in Galway a couple of years ago & will be in Sligo this time, after visiting cousins in Kerry (where all my lot come from).

There should be some beautiful walking country in Mayo, if that's your thing - and some good bars and music, if not. Better stop this diversion from political argument! 

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

Total shambles, although the country is actually performing well

Oh yeah, I'm sure the economic figures are decent.

 

Still, now Mueller has dug out the proctologists kit and a microscope with a grand jury in place we shall see what transpires.

[Guest]

Following on from the article i posted yesterday the government's advisor has had his say on car useage

 

Electric cars are not the answer to air pollution, says top UK adviser

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/04/fewer-cars-not-electric-cars-beat-air-pollution-says-top-uk-adviser-prof-frank-kelly?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard