Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[David Guiza]

6 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Proportion of the population that owns a home has today been confirmed to have dropped to the lowest level since 1985.

Really does not surprise me.

 

Incidentally I was watching the first episode of the Good Life the other day (as I am a 60 year old trapped in the body of a 26 year old) and the notion that a couple, only one of whom works and the other is seemingly not doing overly well in his job, have already paid off their entire mortgage sometime before their late 30s was was a little depressing. And yes, I am aware that is fictional and was 40 years ago, but whilst virtually everything has improved since then it would be ignorant to suggest the housing situation is at all better for a real life couple in an equivalent position to them. 

 

A modern day Good Life would be interesting though. Tom working overtime in a job he hates to pay for their £300,000 twice re-mortgaged maisonette in North London whilst Barbara attempts to make her dream of becoming a vegan vlogger a reality. 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

Really does not surprise me.

 

Incidentally I was watching the first episode of the Good Life the other day (as I am a 60 year old trapped in the body of a 26 year old) and the notion that a couple, only one of whom works and the other is seemingly not doing overly well in his job, have already paid off their entire mortgage sometime before their late 30s was was a little depressing. And yes, I am aware that is fictional and was 40 years ago, but whilst virtually everything has improved since then it would be ignorant to suggest the housing situation is at all better for a real life couple in an equivalent position to them. 

 

A modern day Good Life would be interesting though. Tom working overtime in a job he hates to pay for their £300,000 twice re-mortgaged maisonette in North London whilst Barbara attempts to make her dream of becoming a vegan vlogger a reality. 

This is one of the things I don't get when we're told that everybody is so much better off. It's gone from one (predominately husband) in a decent job being able to afford a nice house with his wife not working and his kids going to uni to both parents slogging away to barely afford the childcare and not be able to buy their own home. The kids have to take on debt equivalent to twice the average salary just to get a zero hours job as a supervisor in sports direct. How is this better? People point to wide screen TVs and mobile phones but they are just the 2018 equivalant of color tv and a home phone. 

[Fox Ulike]

2 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Just sense, just like you saying it won't be a disaster. It won't be Patrick Minford's sunshine and roses where our welfare increases by whatever he said. My opinion on that hasn't wavered so it's not evidence for a mistake. 

Sense, eh? You really are living the Liberalist-snowflake wet dream if you believe that the answers all lie in your head.

 

Interestingly, I was having a convo with Webbo about why he voted Brexit a while back, and ultimately he said it came down to ‘common sense’.

 

I know that all of us are conditioned by the values of the liberal democracy which we’ve grown up in; but it’s scary to think that we’re making a seismic change in our economy because people think it’s a “common sense”, and liberalism teaches us to ‘believe in yourself’ and ‘have the courage of your own convictions’.

 

For me to all comes down to Gove’s comment about “We’ve had enough of experts”.

 

I don’t know whether Brexit is (economically) a mistake or not. I base my opinions on the weight of evidence (by expert sources) that I have seen and heard. Not by what the special voices in my head tell me.

[Nick]

I’m grateful for every day that the ‘special voice in my head’ doesn’t belong to Michael Gove.

[Kopfkino]

4 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

Sense, eh? You really are living the Liberalist-snowflake wet dream if you believe that the answers all lie in your head.

 

Interestingly, I was having a convo with Webbo about why he voted Brexit a while back, and ultimately he said it came down to ‘common sense’.

 

I know that all of us are conditioned by the values of the liberal democracy which we’ve grown up in; but it’s scary to think that we’re making a seismic change in our economy because people think it’s a “common sense”, and liberalism teaches us to ‘believe in yourself’ and ‘have the courage of your own convictions’.

 

For me to all comes down to Gove’s comment about “We’ve had enough of experts”.

 

I don’t know whether Brexit is (economically) a mistake or not. I base my opinions on the weight of evidence (by expert sources) that I have seen and heard. Not by what the special voices in my head tell me.

 

Wtf are you on about now. You asked how I can say leave overstated the benefits but not believe it to be a mistake. The point being Minford was the most prominent leave economist that modelled it. It makes sense that his predictions are overstated because he uses a model for international trade that is no longer widely used. Whilst he provides some reasoning, it makes sense to say he has chosen that model because it will say what he wants, it will overstate the benefits. Nothing to do with voices in your head, just looking at a piece of information and applying some critical thinking for why you shouldn't just take that as gospel.

 

I can't say it's a mistake when the empirical data does not exist for me to say that is a mistake. We've already seen that economic forecasts aren't all that. For a start, there's a big debate in macroeconomics at the moment about the microeconomic foundations that underpin the main DSGM model that they use. They have to effectively estimate most of their inputs, which combined with a model for which they are unsure of the foundations doesn't bode well for accuracy. The Economist's panel came out and said they were wrong because people and firms didn't behave like they expected. Economic forecasting is a near impossible art. 

 

So it does make sense to say Leave overestimated outcomes and I can't admit something is a mistake because inflation rose a little before said event even happened just because some economic forecasts tell me what will happen if the conditions of their models are perfectly satisfied when they've already been wrong.

 

I mean just for reference of the pointlessness of looking at forecasts to 2030. I can't imagine many 12-year forecasts in 2006 got very near to the current economic situation.

[Fox Ulike]

10 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

I’m grateful for every day that the ‘special voice in my head’ doesn’t belong to Michael Gove.

 

It’s a good point and one that I’d missed.

 

Lliberal Brexiteers believe that the Universe has given them the secret knowledge of how to exact maximum revenue from Britain's Trade Agreements.

 

When in fact it’s just Michael Gove with his hand up their jacksy telling them not to listen to experts but to believe the special voices in their heads.

[Fox Ulike]

8 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Wtf are you on about now. You asked how I can say leave overstated the benefits but not believe it to be a mistake. The point being Minford was the most prominent leave economist that modelled it. It makes sense that his predictions are overstated because he uses a model for international trade that is no longer widely used. Whilst he provides some reasoning, it makes sense to say he has chosen that model because it will say what he wants, it will overstate the benefits. Nothing to do with voices in your head, just looking at a piece of information and applying some critical thinking for why you shouldn't just take that as gospel.

 

I can't say it's a mistake when the empirical data does not exist for me to say that is a mistake. We've already seen that economic forecasts aren't all that. For a start, there's a big debate in macroeconomics at the moment about the microeconomic foundations that underpin the main DSGM model that they use. They have to effectively estimate most of their inputs, which combined with a model for which they are unsure of the foundations doesn't bode well for accuracy. The Economist's panel came out and said they were wrong because people and firms didn't behave like they expected. Economic forecasting is a near impossible art. 

 

So it does make sense to say Leave overestimated outcomes and I can't admit something is a mistake because inflation rose a little before said event even happened just because some economic forecasts tell me what will happen if the conditions of their models are perfectly satisfied when they've already been wrong.

 

I mean just for reference of the pointlessness of looking at forecasts to 2030. I can't imagine many 12-year forecasts in 2006 got very near to the current economic situation.

 

You’ll need to dumb-it-down for me a bit. I’m not an economic expert. Are you? Out of interest, what are your credentials? Genuine question: You certainly sound like you know what you’re talking about.

 

Which is sort of my point.

 

What I would like to know is this. Does it "make sense" ‘ o impose a regulatory barrier between ourselves and our biggest trading partner? And do you need ‘empirical data’ to answer this question?

[lifted*fox]

[bovril]

7 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

Would you date a pigeon? 

[lifted*fox]

1 minute ago, bovril said:

Would you date a pigeon? 

 

Haha, I shit you not - I nearly made a topic with this title for the lolz but then realised that the 'would you date a...' string of recent topics are stupid anyway. 

 

Certainly not the kind of SERIOUS posting I'm known for on here.

[Buce]

1 minute ago, lifted*fox said:

 

Haha, I shit you not - I nearly made a topic with this title for the lolz but then realised that the 'would you date a...' string of recent topics are stupid anyway. 

 

Certainly not the kind of SERIOUS posting I'm known for on here.

 

It's just fvcking spam, mate.

 

It stopped being funny about two seconds after the first time.

 

[lifted*fox]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

It's just fvcking spam, mate.

 

It stopped being funny about two seconds after the first time.

 

The 'would you date' posts? 

 

I sincerely hope you're not talking about my pigeons Buce - they would be super upset to be considered spam when they're a beautiful contributor to this thread. 

[bovril]

10 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

It's just fvcking spam, mate.

 

It stopped being funny about two seconds after the first time.

 

Oooh get you.

[lifted*fox]

4 minutes ago, bovril said:

Coooh get you.

 

 

 

[Webbo]

1 hour ago, Fox Ulike said:

Sense, eh? You really are living the Liberalist-snowflake wet dream if you believe that the answers all lie in your head.

 

Interestingly, I was having a convo with Webbo about why he voted Brexit a while back, and ultimately he said it came down to ‘common sense’.

 

I know that all of us are conditioned by the values of the liberal democracy which we’ve grown up in; but it’s scary to think that we’re making a seismic change in our economy because people think it’s a “common sense”, and liberalism teaches us to ‘believe in yourself’ and ‘have the courage of your own convictions’.

 

For me to all comes down to Gove’s comment about “We’ve had enough of experts”.

 

I don’t know whether Brexit is (economically) a mistake or not. I base my opinions on the weight of evidence (by expert sources) that I have seen and heard. Not by what the special voices in my head tell me.

I'd be interested to see where I said that.

[Fox Ulike]

2 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I'd be interested to see where I said that.

I'd love to be able to find it.

 

Is there a 'search thread' facility on here anywhere?

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Fox Ulike said:

I'd love to be able to find it.

 

Is there a 'search thread' facility on here anywhere?

At the top of the page where it says "search".

[Strokes]

22 minutes ago, Webbo said:

At the top of the page where it says "search".

It’s like waiting for Rog to find flights, I can’t bare to wait any longer.

[Buce]

On 03/11/2017 at 11:35, Webbo said:

Did you the see the bit where I said your figures seemed unlikely?

 

On 03/11/2017 at 11:36, Fox Ulike said:

Based on what source?

 

On 03/11/2017 at 11:38, Webbo said:

Based on common sense.

 

[Guest]

More evidence that the Brexiter push-back is now on: in a blog, Sky’s Faisal Islam says Brexiter Tories are gearing up to rebel on the taxation (cross border trade) bill because they fear it could become an instrument for effectively keeping the UK in the customs union. As he says, this would be “the first time leave-backing Tories will have rebelled on Brexit legislation.”

 

Bloody quislings.

[Webbo]

On 03/11/2017 at 11:34, Fox Ulike said:

Yeah I just made those figures up.  I didn't think you'd take them literally.

 

But no doubt this will be front page news on the Daily Mail tomorrow:

 

Foxing Hell! Remoaner in chief Fox u-DON'T-like is FORCED to admit that LOVELY-JUBBLY Brexit will save us a WHOPPING £40m a week!

 

My point is you have absolutely no idea what that figure will be. Not because it's unknowable but because your own Government is withholding that information from you.

 

On 03/11/2017 at 11:35, Webbo said:

Did you the see the bit where I said your figures seemed unlikely?

 

On 03/11/2017 at 11:36, Fox Ulike said:

Based on what source?

 

On 03/11/2017 at 11:38, Webbo said:

Based on common sense.

So I didn't say I voted for Brexit based on common sense, I said your figures were bullshit based on common sense, and it turns out I was right.

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

More evidence that the Brexiter push-back is now on: in a blog, Sky’s Faisal Islam says Brexiter Tories are gearing up to rebel on the taxation (cross border trade) bill because they fear it could become an instrument for effectively keeping the UK in the customs union. As he says, this would be “the first time leave-backing Tories will have rebelled on Brexit legislation.”

 

Bloody quislings.

Get in, my heroes.

[Strokes]

33 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

 

 

Conveniently missing out the bit where he says he made the figures up buce tut tut.

[Buce]

4 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Conveniently missing out the bit where he says he made the figures up buce tut tut.

 

Nah, mate, I didn't even read it, I just found the bit where Webbo said 'common sense'.

 

Not my argument.

[Guest MattP]

4 hours ago, toddybad said:

Proportion of the population that owns a home has today been confirmed to have dropped to the lowest level since 1985.

I can't believe the Tories are still doing nothing about this, Thatcher got people owning homes and they held office for nearly 20 years. It doesn't only help people but it makes political sense.

 

Homeowners overwhelmingly vote Conservative and they don't want to create them, it's genuinely puzzling.