Alf Bentley Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 9 hours ago, DJ Barry Hammond said: @Alf Bentley I feel I should come back to you on your post - but that seems such a long time ago on page terms! Looks fun by the few I flicked through. Anyway, I spot the latest update is the desire for a ‘Customs Arrangement’ - nice move, it’s not what is in place now which means it’s can be posed as a hard Brexit position... but could be essentially the same as the Customs Union in practice = covert softy. This really could be negotiated sermantics. But if i expand on my main point way back - in that I think i’d prefer full on hard to a softy (wouldn’t we all?) - because maybe I’d rather give the winning side their head and have a proper go at it. I get why remainers might want a soft Brexit - because it’s the closest match to what we have now and because of the economic warnings*; but if we end up losing key elements of our current position I feel staying loses even more value to the point i’m thinking - would I have then swapped sides and voted to leave? Is there not a point or times when you think - **** it, let’s have a hard Brexit just for the lols? *Personally I’m starting to think the recent economic warnings are a bit of a fudge because the government hasn’t a clue what it wants / is going to get / what Liam Fox has up his sleeve in terms of insta-trade deals; and there’s so many variables at play, it’s finger in the air stuff - intelligent, lick the tip before placing in the air style - but still wild finger waving guess work. I think the Customs Arrangement concept is all about short-term management of Tory party unity. Keeps the Brexiteers on board as we're "leaving the Customs Union", but keeps the Tory Remainers on board as we're "not isolating ourselves" and are seeking a "deep and special relationship" and "frictionless trade" with the EU. That effectively means that we're still negotiating to "have our cake and eat it". At some point, we will presumably have to choose between having and eating.... Sometimes I share your positive attitude to taking a massive gamble with Hard Brexit - I'm sure it'll make life interesting, one way or another. It's probably my age and circumstances that makes the excitement of the unknown less appealing. Even assuming that Hard Brexit were set to be a great success in the long-run (which I don't believe), even sane Brexiteers accept that, in the first 10+ years, we're likely to be poorer and to face more problems. I'd be more blasé about that if I were a 25-year-old with secure finances and no commitments. But I have a daughter who'll be launching to adulthood and looking for a career/work and independence in the next 10 years. Meanwhile, I'll be heading towards retirement age without great wealth or income. I might live healthily to 100, but have a heart condition that might require major treatment in the next 10 years and that leaves me vulnerable to the possibility of a debilitating stroke. So the possibility of less funds for the NHS and social care due to the economic impact of Brexit could affect me directly. Beyond that, the potential impact on other people concerns me. We already have a lot of social misery, conflict and people struggling to get by. Taking the hard Brexit gamble, even if successful in the long run, is likely to mean more of that in the next 10 years - possibly more people lacking security of income, dying on trolleys, sleeping in the street, committing crime for cash or drugs, indulging in violent racism, launching Far Right movements.... Of course, none of my fears might become reality. Hard Brexit might just be slightly bumpy, if not smooth (the current economic upturn in the EU, US & wider world might - or might not - support this). But, never mind the long-term impact - in the long-term we're all dead - the ten-year impact risks being somewhere between bad and disastrous, depending on the response of politicians, business and public. Some might be blase about taking a risk that might ruin their lives and ruin their country for 10 years. I'm in a better position than some people to weather any storm: I'm not rich, but I'm not poverty-stricken either. I do work for which there would be some demand abroad. I have obtained an Irish/EU passport and am in the process of getting one for my daughter. But I don't want my country to take a massive, long-odds gamble that could present me with the choice of living out my life in a horrible country or leaving my country, something that I didn't plan to do.
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 6 February 2018 Author Posted 6 February 2018 @MattP We’ve been agreeing on more of late yes - must be sliding into a right wing mindset due to being surrounded by young, left wing idologs (many obviously clueless) Case in point, discussion on hedgemony this morning; I pipe up with the observation “the examples all position hedgemony in a bad light, but can’t it be a good thing in some scenario’s?” @Carl the Llama On the understanding of the EU - two students mentioned it in a discussion point this morning and suggested that Brexit had since been overturned! Makes me think the clueless voters were the majority on both sides, not just on leave’s side.
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 6 February 2018 Author Posted 6 February 2018 @RumbleFox indeed more compassion... except for those hippies, they can be beaten with sticks ? 1 1
Alf Bentley Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 6 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said: Case in point, discussion on hedgemony this morning; I pipe up with the observation “the examples all position hedgemony in a bad light, but can’t it be a good thing in some scenario’s?” On the understanding of the EU - two students mentioned it in a discussion point this morning and suggested that Brexit had since been overturned! Makes me think the clueless voters were the majority on both sides, not just on leave’s side. What's hedgemony or does that question show me to be a clueless voter? Do you mean "hegemony"? Or "hedge money"?
Carl the Llama Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 18 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said: @MattP We’ve been agreeing on more of late yes - must be sliding into a right wing mindset due to being surrounded by young, left wing idologs (many obviously clueless) Case in point, discussion on hedgemony this morning; I pipe up with the observation “the examples all position hedgemony in a bad light, but can’t it be a good thing in some scenario’s?” @Carl the Llama On the understanding of the EU - two students mentioned it in a discussion point this morning and suggested that Brexit had since been overturned! Makes me think the clueless voters were the majority on both sides, not just on leave’s side. As I understand it, now that art. 50's been triggered only we can cancel Brexit by turning around to the EU and performing the political equivalent of going "psyche!". I stand to be corrected but that just sounds like conspiracy theories to me.
Buce Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 7 minutes ago, MattP said: It's laughable how you post polls that suit your agenda, then tell us polls mean nothing since Brexit/Trump/2017 Tory failure when they don't. You convince no one but the Tory echo chamber.
Guest MattP Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 Just now, Buce said: It's laughable how you post polls that suit your agenda, then tell us polls mean nothing since Brexit/Trump/2017 Tory failure when they don't. You convince no one but the Tory echo chamber. How does a poll with Labour on a 3pt lead suit my agenda?
Buce Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 Just now, MattP said: How does a poll with Labour on a 3pt lead suit my agenda? Labour -2, Tories +3. You really didn't need that answering, I'm sure you're more self aware than that.
Guest MattP Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 Just now, Buce said: Labour -2, Tories +3. You really didn't need that answering, I'm sure you're more self aware than that. Didn't actually see that, just pulled the two polls that were released over the weekend from Britain Elects. Thanks for pointing it out though, cheered me up. Maybe a few people are starting to see who the real nasty party are after recent events.
Buce Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MattP said: Didn't actually see that, just pulled the two polls that were released over the weekend from Britain Elects. Thanks for pointing it out though, cheered me up. Maybe a few people are starting to see who the real nasty party are after recent events. Well, here's one to bring you down again: Confidence in how the Brexit process is being handled has fallen over the last two months, the poll suggests. In December only around one person in five (21%) thought the process of leaving the EU was going well. Now it is around one person in six (16%). We asked respondents how they thought the process of leaving the EU was going. Here are the results. Well: 16% (down 5 from Guardian/ICM in December) Neither well nor badly: 25% (up 2) Badly: 53% (up 2) Don’t know: 6% (no change) ICM’s Alex Turk says the findings should be particularly worrying for May’s party. These figures make especially concerning reading for the Tories, as now fewer than a third of Conservative voters think Brexit is going well (32%), down from almost 2 in 5 (39%) at the start of December. Indeed, it’s hard to find one substantial group of voters who think the Brexit process is going well. It may not be surprising to see that only 12% of 2016 Remainers think Brexit is going well, but it seems stark that even amongst 2016 Leave voters, less than a quarter (23%) say Brexit is going well. Edited 6 February 2018 by Buce
Guest MattP Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Buce said: Well, here's one to bring you down again: Confidence in how the Brexit process is being handled has fallen over the last two months, the poll suggests. In December only around one person in five (21%) thought the process of leaving the EU was going well. Now it is around one person in six (16%). We asked respondents how they thought the process of leaving the EU was going. Here are the results. Well: 16% (down 5 from Guardian/ICM in December) Neither well nor badly: 25% (up 2) Badly: 53% (up 2) Don’t know: 6% (no change) ICM’s Alex Turk says the findings should be particularly worrying for May’s party. These figures make especially concerning reading for the Tories, as now fewer than a third of Conservative voters think Brexit is going well (32%), down from almost 2 in 5 (39%) at the start of December. Indeed, it’s hard to find one substantial group of voters who think the Brexit process is going well. It may not be surprising to see that only 12% of 2016 Remainers think Brexit is going well, but it seems stark that even amongst 2016 Leave voters, less than a quarter (23%) say Brexit is going well. That doesn't bring me down at all, I'm not exactly delighted how it is going myself. We need to be far stronger and as I mentioned in my post earlier, if Theresa May believes the Brexit deal should be about damage limitation rather than taking advantage of the benefits of departure she should step aside for a leader who takes a different opinion. The fact that % of Tory voters think it's going badly yet they still can get 40% in a general election poll says it all about the absolute state of the alternative. That's actually reassuring. If the students end up realising Corbyn is pro-Brexit by 2022 he could be in some trouble. Edited 6 February 2018 by MattP
Guest Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 6 minutes ago, MattP said: That doesn't bring me down at all, I'm not exactly delighted how it is going myself. We need to be far stronger and as I mentioned in my post earlier, if Theresa May believes the Brexit deal should be about damage limitation rather than taking advantage of the benefits of departure she should step aside for a leader who takes a different opinion. The fact that % of Tory voters think it's going badly yet they still can get 40% in a general election poll says it all about the absolute state of the alternative. That's actually reassuring. If the students end up realising Corbyn is pro-Brexit by 2022 he could be in some trouble. The general election was before they started the process of negotiating Brexit. The full survey suggests that people disagree with mps on Brexit whether they are leavers or remainers - all MP options are negative results - suggesting people haven't really got a clue what they want. That said, the leavers like Boris score better that remainers.
Guest MattP Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 Just now, toddybad said: The general election was before they started the process of negotiating Brexit. The full survey suggests that people disagree with mps on Brexit whether they are leavers or remainers - all MP options are negative results - suggesting people haven't really got a clue what they want. That said, the leavers like Boris score better that remainers. I meant in polls now, Tories consistently hover around 40% and that's on the new methods being used that rely on weighting with the younger turnout being massively up from usual, we already have had doubt cast on that so they might even be doing better than you think.
UpTheLeagueFox Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 Some of the replies on Twitter (from both left and right) on Britain Elect tweets are quite amusing. The angry left are especially entertaining.
Guest Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, MattP said: I meant in polls now, Tories consistently hover around 40% and that's on the new methods being used that rely on weighting with the younger turnout being massively up from usual, we already have had doubt cast on that so they might even be doing better than you think. As I've said consistently since the election, I'm paying no attention to polls any more. It's only 7 months since you were claiming the Tories had a 17 point lead with the infamous quote about "as if labour will reach 40% " or similar. I do find it odd how excitable you get about almost nothing to claim it as some sort of moral victory. I'd personally expect the two main parties to hover around for a fair while. The end of the Brexit negotiations and/or a change of PM will affect it in the short term but the next election should be fought on home policies and clearly the Tories need a fresh look at those. Edited 6 February 2018 by Guest
Innovindil Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 Decent banter from matt tbf. Any bell can shout "racists!" and get people wound up, it takes something special to get someone frothing over a voting intention poll. 2
Guest Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 2 minutes ago, Innovindil said: Decent banter from matt tbf. Any bell can shout "racists!" and get people wound up, it takes something special to get someone frothing over a voting intention poll. Nobody is frothing?
Guest MattP Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 13 minutes ago, toddybad said: As I've said consistently since the election, I'm paying no attention to polls any more. It's only 7 months since you were claiming the Tories had a 17 point lead with the infamous quote about "as if labour will reach 40% " or similar. I do find it odd how excitable you get about almost nothing to claim it as some sort of moral victory. I'd personally expect the two main parties to hover around for a fair while. The end of the Brexit negotiations and/or a change of PM will affect it in the short term but the next election should be fought on home policies and clearly the Tories need a fresh look at those. You have posted polls yourself, they are interesting. What was my infamous quote? If I did say that I wasn't the only one was I? If you aren't worried Labour not only can't extend its lead but is losing it against this current government then no problem.
Guest Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 1 minute ago, MattP said: You have posted polls yourself, they are interesting. What was my infamous quote? If I did say that I wasn't the only one was I? If you aren't worried Labour not only can't extend its lead but is losing it against this current government then no problem. I think I posted a lot of polls in the election build up. At that point they are interesting. I'm just unconvinced that most people give a stuff in between. You definitely said something like that but it's in the annals of time now. I'm not worried or unworried. I have opinions and vote based of them, rather than slavishly supporting a team. Hence me having voted for numerous parties in the past. If the current government had good policies I wouldn't be so ardent in my criticism. Would labour be miles ahead with a centrist leader? Probably.
leicsmac Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 4 hours ago, Bellend Sebastian said: Thank goodness this guy was on hand to help out "Britain's most fertile ventriloquist's dummy". https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rees-mogg-s-defender-wore-nazi-uniform-dfmmqplr7 I wonder if actual members of the SS were so jolly? Saw this referenced yesterday too, didn't use the link as I wasn't sure it was reputable. I guess you can't entirely judge JRM by the company he keeps, but even so...thoughts? Opinions?
Bellend Sebastian Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 3 minutes ago, leicsmac said: Saw this referenced yesterday too, didn't use the link as I wasn't sure it was reputable. I guess you can't entirely judge JRM by the company he keeps, but even so...thoughts? Opinions? Yeah, the original source didn't look great. I wouldn't have posted if the mainstream media hadn't got hold of it. It's just another sign of the total mess we're in
Guest MattP Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 7 minutes ago, leicsmac said: Saw this referenced yesterday too, didn't use the link as I wasn't sure it was reputable. I guess you can't entirely judge JRM by the company he keeps, but even so...thoughts? Opinions? People who buy tickets for an event are now classed as "company he keeps" - seriously?
UpTheLeagueFox Posted 6 February 2018 Posted 6 February 2018 4 minutes ago, MattP said: People who buy tickets for an event are now classed as "company he keeps" - seriously? I'm with you. It's also a good job Corbyn hasn't kept any dodgy company over the years #terrorists 1
Recommended Posts