Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest MattP]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

You're having a laugh about Brexit bringing a boom in public spending. You know perfectly well that (a) the OBS or someone found a few extra million that they'd miscalculated in their sums - so extra cash unexpectedly available as a one-off; (b) that this was a political move - a "feel good" motivator to try to keep the economy above water, and public discontent within bounds, pending the Brexit outcome. If not, if you're seriously expecting Brexit to bring "the end of austerity" as May said and more cash for public services, well......let's see what happens in budgets over the next 2-3 years. 

 

You're a comedian, sir! 

Sorry I missed this.

 

You missed the point I was trying to make, I never claimed the increased public spending was because of Brexit - it was because of the vote for Brexit. Two different things.

 

Seriously, do you think the NHS would be getting an extra 20 billion a year had we voted Remain and Cameron and Osborne are still there? We both know the answer to that.

[FoxNotFox]

39 minutes ago, MattP said:

Seriously, do you think the NHS would be getting an extra 20 billion a year had we voted Remain and Cameron and Osborne are still there? We both know the answer to that.

I fear you're right. I'm not sure what it says but I know it speaks volumes.

 

Maybe the Brexit referendum will achieve some good whatever the outcome, even if the motivation for that good is all tits up.

[Strokes]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Maybe @Strokes is one of them there foreign migrants, coming over here stealing our women and burning our hayricks?

 

Could have been worse, though. Could've been "Fùçk æll".

We can’t even swear in English, pretty sure that’s down to the EU bastards 

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Sorry I missed this.

 

You missed the point I was trying to make, I never claimed the increased public spending was because of Brexit - it was because of the vote for Brexit. Two different things.

 

Seriously, do you think the NHS would be getting an extra 20 billion a year had we voted Remain and Cameron and Osborne are still there? We both know the answer to that.

 

I didn't miss the point. I understood that you meant the NHS spending was because of the Brexit vote. As we all know, Brexit hasn't happened yet, so it couldn't be otherwise.

I just found the idea of the Brexit vote being credited for the NHS spending increase amusing.

 

Hammond was able to give the NHS extra funds because the OBR had recalculated its forecasts, giving him extra funds. He handed the NHS the cash because he knows it's in crisis but important to the public, and the govt is fighting on enough fronts already with Brexit, Universal Credit, other cuts, low pay etc. The last thing he'd have wanted would have been to have people up in arms about the NHS, too. If he'd not received that windfall, maybe he'd have still given the NHS that cash by cutting elsewhere, increasing the deficit or increasing tax, who knows? Economic uncertainty and lower growth due to the Brexit vote would have meant he'd have found it LESS easy, though.

 

UK growth has slumped in the last 2 years since the referendum, due to uncertainty over what Brexit will mean. If Remain had won and Osborne had stayed on, he'd have had higher tax revenues than Hammond has had for the past 2 years.

 

Neither of us can be sure what Osborne would have done. Maybe he'd have stuck rigidly to his deficit reduction strategy. Maybe he'd have used those extra tax revenues to cut the deficit more (or cut tax). Maybe he'd have done likewise with the 2018 windfall from the OBR, even with the NHS creaking at the seams.....unlikely, though.

 

Plus, you can't assume a sea-change in policy because of a single windfall and May's rhetoric announcing the end of austerity. I'm sure that Hammond is right to expect a short-term boost if a Brexit deal is confirmed, but over several years to come tax revenues are likely to be lower than they would have been without Brexit - maybe only slightly lower if there's a deal and transition period, but a great deal lower with No Deal. That could well impact on the NHS - certainly with No Deal. If there's a deal and only slight Brexit damage and if the Govt continue to prioritise the NHS, maybe it'll have no effect - but other struggling public services will suffer instead.

[deep blue]

16 hours ago, Strokes said:

If you have Fùck all, you have Fùck all to lose.

On the other hand, if you have just enough to live on, but only by a whisker, then you have everything to lose.

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, deep blue said:

On the other hand, if you have just enough to live on, but only by a whisker, then you have everything to lose.

Not really, having just enough to live on, is the equivalent to having fùck all in my experience.

[Buce]

 

 

UKIP's journey to the gutter is complete:

 

Tommy Robinson appointed as Ukip's 'grooming gangs adviser'

Batten compares him to 'Gandhi' and 'Mandella'.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/22/tommy-robinson-ukip-grooming-gangs-adviser

[Nick]

8 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

 

UKIP's journey to the gutter is complete:

 

Tommy Robinson appointed as Ukip's 'grooming gangs adviser'

Batten compares him to 'Gandhi' and 'Mandella'.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/22/tommy-robinson-ukip-grooming-gangs-adviser

Wow.

[Guest MattP]

10 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

I didn't miss the point. I understood that you meant the NHS spending was because of the Brexit vote. As we all know, Brexit hasn't happened yet, so it couldn't be otherwise.

I just found the idea of the Brexit vote being credited for the NHS spending increase amusing.

But that is what has happened.

 

The increase in spending has came from the public anger over so called austerity which has been expressed by some in the referendum and many in the general election last year - those things didn't happen without the Brexit vote.

 

It doesn't matter what the state of the public finances are anymore, we had the worst austerity for decades in 2010 inside the European Union, the government now doesn't care - they areally going to beg, borrow and spend whatever the situation and kick the can down the road for someone else to pay it off.

 

It's like the Tories know they'll lose an election in 2022 so we may as well splurge rather than save and make sure Labour to promise laughable amounts of public spending while they do.

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, Buce said:

UKIP's journey to the gutter is complete:

 

Tommy Robinson appointed as Ukip's 'grooming gangs adviser'

Batten compares him to 'Gandhi' and 'Mandella'.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/22/tommy-robinson-ukip-grooming-gangs-adviser

Not sure how that can happen given EDL and BNP members (current or former) are banned from joining UKIP? 

[Buce]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

Not sure how that can happen given EDL and BNP members (current or former) are banned from joining UKIP? 

 

It quotes Batten in the article saying that he doesn't have to be a member to act as an 'advisor'.

 

It also says Batten has begun the process of changing that rule, to allow him to become a member.

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, Buce said:

It quotes Batten in the article saying that he doesn't have to be a member to act as an 'advisor'.

 

It also says Batten has begun the process of changing that rule, to allow him to become a member.

Fair enough, I thought the NEC held control over UKIP, something has clearly changed.

 

Probably a wise move for the party though as they are going nowhere, with Brexit being blocked they'll be a huge hole for an anti-establishment hard right party, can see them doing quite well and Tommy Robinson is clearly fairly popular among sections of the population.

 

Even more important now that the Tories become a Eurosceptic party post May.

[Alf Bentley]

42 minutes ago, MattP said:

But that is what has happened.

 

The increase in spending has came from the public anger over so called austerity which has been expressed by some in the referendum and many in the general election last year - those things didn't happen without the Brexit vote.

 

 

So, public anger over austerity contributed to the Brexit vote and May's disappointing election result and helped force the Govt to give the NHS extra cash. In other words, they were all partly symptoms of the damage Tory austerity policies have done to the nation. Yep, I can agree with that.

 

Presumably, if police numbers are increased because of public anger due to the surge in crime caused partly by "so-called" austerity, we'll need to applaud the Brexit vote for the welcome increase in police numbers? 

 

Meanwhile, 320,000 so-called people are so-called homeless: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/22/uk/homelessness-britain-rise-gbr-intl-scli/index.html

"The number of homeless people in Britain is soaring by more than 1,000 a month, and reached a total of 320,000 in the first quarter of this year, according to research released Thursday by homelessness charity Shelter. The charity's report reveals that roughly one in every 200 Britons were sleeping on the streets or in temporary accommodation in the first quarter, with an increase of 13,000 individuals -- a 4% rise -- over the second quarter of 2017".

 

I can't speak for the numbers, but the increase is clearly evident any time you walk through Leicester city centre. A few years back, there would only have been the odd person begging or sleeping under blankets and cardboard boxes. Now, if you walk through the centre for 5 minutes, you're likely to see at least a dozen.......all professional beggars and spineless, malingering benefits scroungers created by the bleeding-heart liberal elite, I presume?

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

56 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

It quotes Batten in the article saying that he doesn't have to be a member to act as an 'advisor'.

 

It also says Batten has begun the process of changing that rule, to allow him to become a member.

 

Farage has completely opposed this and called for a vote of confidence in Batten, according to the Telegraph.

 

Good news in a way. Whatever the outcome of Brexit, there are bound to be a lot of people angry about that and angry about austerity and the general state of the nation and their lives. So, Batten's right to think there's a real prospect of UKIP bouncing back as a party of the Far Right. If Farage was on board with that, it would be a lot more dangerous as he has public appeal, unlike Batten himself. Big risk if Robinson comes to play a prominent role, though, as he does have the street following to help UKIP grow into a major Far Right force.

 

I wonder if Farage has any intention of getting back into politics or just plans to continue as a media commentator / public figure now? There are going to be a lot of disillusioned people over coming years so, in a way, it would be good if he went back into politics either with the Tories (who have a strong influence from old UKIP policies now, anyway) or leading some new Eurosceptic, anti-immigration "patriotic traditionalist-populist party" (difficult to pin his views down on the spectrum)....would syphon off some of the potential support for the new Far Right UKIP.

[Guest MattP]

24 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Presumably, if police numbers are increased because of public anger due to the surge in crime caused partly by "so-called" austerity, we'll need to applaud the Brexit vote for the welcome increase in police numbers? 

 

Meanwhile, 320,000 so-called people are so-called homeless: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/22/uk/homelessness-britain-rise-gbr-intl-scli/index.html

"The number of homeless people in Britain is soaring by more than 1,000 a month, and reached a total of 320,000 in the first quarter of this year, according to research released Thursday by homelessness charity Shelter. The charity's report reveals that roughly one in every 200 Britons were sleeping on the streets or in temporary accommodation in the first quarter, with an increase of 13,000 individuals -- a 4% rise -- over the second quarter of 2017".

 

I can't speak for the numbers, but the increase is clearly evident any time you walk through Leicester city centre. A few years back, there would only have been the odd person begging or sleeping under blankets and cardboard boxes. Now, if you walk through the centre for 5 minutes, you're likely to see at least a dozen.......all professional beggars and spineless, malingering benefits scroungers created by the bleeding-heart liberal elite, I presume?

That's quite a strawman and I have no idea what it has to with anything being discussed.

 

I'm certain we do have a crisis in homelessness but unless someone is prepared to get help what can you do?

 

I don't agree a few years ago it was the odd one though - when I was going out in town every weekend in my 20's there was no shortage of tramps at all.

 

5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

I wonder if Farage has any intention of getting back into politics or just plans to continue as a media commentator / public figure now? There are going to be a lot of disillusioned people over coming years so, in a way, it would be good if he went back into politics either with the Tories (who have a strong influence from old UKIP policies now, anyway) or leading some new Eurosceptic, anti-immigration "patriotic traditionalist-populist party" (difficult to pin his views down on the spectrum)....would syphon off some of the potential support for the new Far Right UKIP.

He was the big interview in the Sunday Times this weekend gone and said he has no intention of leading a political party again whatever happens with Brexit.

 

Says since he left UKIP he has felt healthier, wealthier and happier than at any point in his life.

[Buce]

6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Farage has completely opposed this and called for a vote of confidence in Batten, according to the Telegraph.

 

Good news in a way. Whatever the outcome of Brexit, there are bound to be a lot of people angry about that and angry about austerity and the general state of the nation and their lives. So, Batten's right to think there's a real prospect of UKIP bouncing back as a party of the Far Right. If Farage was on board with that, it would be a lot more dangerous as he has public appeal, unlike Batten himself. Big risk if Robinson comes to play a prominent role, though, as he does have the street following to help UKIP grow into a major Far Right force.

 

I wonder if Farage has any intention of getting back into politics or just plans to continue as a media commentator / public figure now? There are going to be a lot of disillusioned people over coming years so, in a way, it would be good if he went back into politics either with the Tories (who have a strong influence from old UKIP policies now, anyway) or leading some new Eurosceptic, anti-immigration "patriotic traditionalist-populist party" (difficult to pin his views down on the spectrum)....would syphon off some of the potential support for the new Far Right UKIP.

 

I think it's a bit disingenuous of Farage, tbh, as it was he who started the party along this path.

 

He was quite happy to harness the bigot vote when he was in charge, and let's not forget that shameful billboard poster - pure dog whistle politics.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

I think it's a bit disingenuous of Farage, tbh, as it was he who started the party along this path.

 

He was quite happy to harness the bigot vote when he was in charge, and let's not forget that shameful billboard poster - pure dog whistle politics.

Very harsh, I thought Farage did quite a bit to moderate UKIP and their presence helped to kill off the BNP. He's probably done more to destroy the far right than most.

 

The poster wasn't ideal I agree but perspective surely? I mean it's not like he's shared platforms with holocaust deniers, anti-semites and took money off regimes than hang gays like another leader of a British political party has.

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

That's quite a strawman and I have no idea what it has to with anything being discussed.

 

I'm certain we do have a crisis in homelessness but unless someone is prepared to get help what can you do?

 

I don't agree a few years ago it was the odd one though - when I was going out in town every weekend in my 20's there was no shortage of tramps at all.

 

 

The bit about the police was a direct analogy to your argument about the NHS. The bit about homelessness was in response to your claim that austerity was "so-called", i.e. not real.

 

Obviously, both your experience and mine are purely anecdotal. However, the figures on homelessness reported by Shelter and various other bodies DO suggest a major increase in homelessness over recent years.

 

I'm not suggesting that ALL of this is due to Tory austerity. There have always been some people homeless and many issues contribute: mental health, alcohol/drug/gambling/debt problems, PTSD among forces veterans, family strife and, yes, a few who make a career choice to beg rather than look for work. But it's the increase, not the existence of homelessness that suggests govt policies are contributing......we know that problems over benefits sanctions and transition to Universal Credit are tipping some over the edge, for a start. Some people are personally vulnerable or poor at managing their personal finances, so a comparatively minor problem like having no benefits for a couple of weeks can cause their whole lives to spiral out of control.

[Guest MattP]

Look at this absolute nutcase again, he genuinely sees the EU taking even more power as the solution to all of this.

 

Can't think who he reminds me of when he rants and bangs his hand down like that.

 

 

[Buce]

17 minutes ago, MattP said:

Very harsh, I thought Farage did quite a bit to moderate UKIP and their presence helped to kill off the BNP. He's probably done more to destroy the far right than most.

 

The poster wasn't ideal I agree but perspective surely? I mean it's not like he's shared platforms with holocaust deniers, anti-semites and took money off regimes than hang gays like another leader of a British political party has.

 

I don’t accept the premise that the far right has been destroyed, the pack has merely been shuffled, so there is no credit for him to take. 

 

As for your second strawman point, I will just give the same response I always give when you mention interaction with regimes that hang gays. Saudi Arabia. 

Edited 23 November 2018 by Buce

[bovril]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

Look at this absolute nutcase again, he genuinely sees the EU taking even more power as the solution to all of this.

 

I dislike his politics but I kind of respect how honest he is about them. I think I'd rather have an openly nutty politician than all this passive-aggressive "well, you know, we have to express the wishes of the people..." stuff. 

[lifted*fox]

Matt calling homeless people 'tramps' and comparing Guy V to Hitler now?

 

 

All getting a bit weird in here lol. Homeless people could quite easily be your neighbours, your family, your colleagues, your friends. Its one bad decision in unfortunate times without the right support network and you could end up right there next to them. They're not 'tramps', they're people. Take some time to speak to them and you'll realise it. I for one will be going into town over Xmas to hand out some food and warm drink to these unfortunate people. It's time to show some compassion as our government sure as hell isn't going to. 

 

As for the Guy V / Hitler comparison? Where to begin with that. 

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

15 minutes ago, MattP said:

Look at this absolute nutcase again, he genuinely sees the EU taking even more power as the solution to all of this.

 

Can't think who he reminds me of when he rants and bangs his hand down like that.

 

 

In the comments to the Verhofstadt video on Youtube, someone says that it is actually from 2011....so propaganda taken out of context.

 

I cannot confirm this 100%, but if you look at this video and one of him from 2018, he does look a lot younger - more lines on face, put on weight etc.

 

I must admit, though, that there's a certain Adolfesque resemblance in his manner here....

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

As for your second strawman point, I will just give the same response I always give when you mention interaction with regimes that hang gays. Saudi Arabia. 

The comparison is absolutely ridiculous and that's being kind. One is a government legislating business, the other is a backbencher of his own accord working for a regime for his own financial gain. If you want to feel better about yourself voting for Corbyn then go for it, but on the evidence we have you've got no more moral high ground than somebody who votes UKIP under Batten.

 

It's probably for another debate, but I still can't see Labour blocking trade on arms with Saudi, it would be bizzarre to run on a platform of "vote for us to end Tory austerity" and then come to office and immediately bung thousands of people on the dole whilst destroying communities, let alone the loss of revenue from companies like Airbus and BAE. If history is anything to go by you'll be needing to save every job you can whilst you increase borrowing and raise taxation.

 

It would also raise questions about other areas, why Saudi and not China who have just put a million Muslims into re-education camps? Is China just too much money to lose? Why not Iran? Why not the UAE? 

 

It's a never ending question.

 

50 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

In the comments to the Verhofstadt video on Youtube, someone says that it is actually from 2011....so propaganda taken out of context.

 

I cannot confirm this 100%, but if you look at this video and one of him from 2018, he does look a lot younger - more lines on face, put on weight etc.

 

I must admit, though, that there's a certain Adolfesque resemblance in his manner here....

Wouldn't surprise me, although if it is its another great example of how wrong somebody can be - he doesn't seem to get anything right yet still remains in a position of power and influence.

 

The Adolfness is fantastic in the video, almost a carbon copy - and just to be clear to @lifted*fox I was talking about mannerisms rather than politics, although I thought that was obvious.

[leicsmac]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Very harsh, I thought Farage did quite a bit to moderate UKIP and their presence helped to kill off the BNP. He's probably done more to destroy the far right than most.

 

The poster wasn't ideal I agree but perspective surely? I mean it's not like he's shared platforms with holocaust deniers, anti-semites and took money off regimes than hang gays like another leader of a British political party has.

2

He's shared a platform with a man whos party counts among its members Holocaust deniers, anti-Semites and those who while not wanting to hang gays would gladly legislate them out of existence as they believe them to be an abomination...is that close?