Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[The Horse's Mouth]

7 minutes ago, Strokes said:

If you have Fùck all, you have Fùck all to lose.

Precisely 

[Guest MattP]

If Graham Brady wants to give a no-confidence letter in Theresa May who does he address it to?

[Kopfkino]

37 minutes ago, bovril said:

I think it's disingenuous to say leave voters didn't vote for financial gain. Some of the main arguments for leaving were to save money that we send to the EU, to tap into wealthy markets in other parts of the World, to help young Brits to find work and to clamp down on migrants on benefits. They are simplistic arguments but very emotive in times of austerity. I honestly don't think Brexit would have got anywhere near 52% if we hadn't had years of austerity and cuts, so it's illogical to say people will be somehow content with being poorer.

 

I don't think 'sovereignty' is quite as high up in people's priorities as some claim, but I could be wrong.

 

I'm sure some did vote thinking we'd be better off for xyz reasons. And many didn't realise they'd be quite as worse off as some might predict. However, pretty much every other one of those arguments can be viewed through a desire for greater control, and thus  sovereignty. Even trading with the world was argued during the campaign as "we can do trade deals with the rest of the world" more so than "trade deals can make us richer.

The BES is good on this https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/what-mattered-most-to-you-when-deciding-how-to-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/#.W_a3t6d0dQI - sovereignty and similar issues are more prominent on the word bubble and the coding also shows sovereignty high up. In fact, often people mentioned sovereignty and immigration together suggesting they were closely linked in people's minds. 

 

This from Matthew Goodwin holds a big key to Brexit for me and also shows the risks of further referendums. This was both a chance for those from 'somewhere' to have a big say and for them to stick it to the 'anywheres'. 

 

"By the time of the 2016 referendum working-class voters and those with no educational qualifications were twice as likely as middle-class professionals and graduates to feel strongly that ‘people like me have no say in government’; by 2012, nearly 40 per cent of the working-class felt this way."

 

 

[Guest MattP]

49 minutes ago, bovril said:

Personally I believe with Corbyn and Brexit some of it (I stress some) is about punishing who they feel is responsible for their disadvantageous situation. It taps into the same feelings of discontent for sure. But history is littered with examples of angry proles taking decisions that made them even poorer.

It is, although we don't need Wat Tyler to be stabbed to stabbed to death to realise how serious this has got, I read recently that the Wesleyan Church was often quelling any dissent during the industrial revolution we certainly don't have anything like that anymore. As others have said, I think the proles know they are often going to lose whatever so you may as well cock up those who think they know what's best for all while that happens.

There are now no actual options left for us who voted leave, no deal is effectively ruled out, so we either keep voting until we vote the right way or tie ourselves to Europe under May's deal. I don't actually think it will lead to riots, but it will lead to millions of people realising again that you can't defeat the establishment and what comes from that I don't know. As I said yesterday, maybe we have to instead turn the EU into something that we want, rather than Remain voters.

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

Most of the people who live in predominantly leave regions already live in poverty though 

 

Not quite that simple, is it? 

These maps show Leave/Remain voting areas: http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-map-2017-6

 

Are you saying that most people in Leicestershire (Leave) live in poverty but not people in Leicester (Remain)?

Are you saying that most people in England (Leave) live in poverty but not people in Scotland or N. Ireland (Remain)?

Are you saying that most people in Bedfordshire, Devon, Dorset and Kent (Leave) live in poverty, but not people in Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds (Remain)?

 

There's some truth in what you say re. struggling former industrial towns/areas away from the big cities, but some of the poorest areas voted Remain and some of the richest voted Leave, too.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

If you have Fùck all, you have Fùck all to lose.

 

You need to define "Fùck all". 

 

If you have a crappy job and are struggling to pay the rent/mortgage, you can still lose your job and your home.

If you're on the dole with no hope, you can still have your benefits cut and see your public services disappear. etc.

[bovril]

"Fùck all" sounds a bit foreign.

[Guest MattP]

12 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Not quite that simple, is it? 

These maps show Leave/Remain voting areas: http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-map-2017-6

 

Are you saying that most people in Leicestershire (Leave) live in poverty but not people in Leicester (Remain)?

Are you saying that most people in England (Leave) live in poverty but not people in Scotland or N. Ireland (Remain)?

Are you saying that most people in Bedfordshire, Devon, Dorset and Kent (Leave) live in poverty, but not people in Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds (Remain)?

 

There's some truth in what you say re. struggling former industrial towns/areas away from the big cities, but some of the poorest areas voted Remain and some of the richest voted Leave, too.

More than fair analysis. 

 

When you see the voting map across England and Wales the leave vote does seem to be a combination of Tory Shires/Towns and then areas that are heavily working class like Hartlepool and Bolsover rather than City type cultural/working class places like Leicester and Manchester. 

 

It only we could bring those people together to form a political party we could have something.

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

You talk like these areas were wealthy before 2010, they didn't just appear overnight. If anything, a vote to remain was a vote for a continuation of the Cameron and Osborne government, thus a continuation of so called austerity.

Look at the public spending that;s going to happen to now under the Conservatives, an extra 20 billion a year for the NHS, more than even the Labour manifesto promised (and more than the bus even said) - do you think that would have happened without Brexit? I very much doubt it.

 

No, struggling ex-industrial areas were not wealthy before 2010. Some started to struggle by the 70s or earlier, but mostly they appeared as a result of Thatcher's revolution in the 80s. Now, it can argued that old industries were doomed to decline anyway, but the fact is that they were mostly abandoned at the time under the ideology of "free markets" - and, to be fair, subsequent govts, including Labour, have done too little to help them build new sources of employment and wealth. Some of this is inevitable with economic change, but it's not inevitable that nothing should be done to help: e.g. Liverpool was one of the wealthiest cities in Europe 100+ years ago, trade/industry changed, but not inevitable for it to be a butt of abuse for sneering right-wingers.

 

"Remain was a vote for a continuation of Cameron/Osborne/austerity"? How does that tally with a large majority of Tory voters supporting Leave and 2/3 of Labour voters supporting Remain? 

Granted, some of the Leave vote was people kicking against austerity - but only some.

 

You're having a laugh about Brexit bringing a boom in public spending. You know perfectly well that (a) the OBS or someone found a few extra million that they'd miscalculated in their sums - so extra cash unexpectedly available as a one-off; (b) that this was a political move - a "feel good" motivator to try to keep the economy above water, and public discontent within bounds, pending the Brexit outcome. If not, if you're seriously expecting Brexit to bring "the end of austerity" as May said and more cash for public services, well......let's see what happens in budgets over the next 2-3 years. 

 

You're a comedian, sir! 

 

[Alf Bentley]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

More than fair analysis. 

 

When you see the voting map across England and Wales the leave vote does seem to be a combination of Tory Shires/Towns and then areas that are heavily working class like Hartlepool and Bolsover rather than City type cultural/working class places like Leicester and Manchester. 

 

It only we could bring those people together to form a political party we could have something.

 

Combine bourgeois interests and an appeal to discontented plebs.....I'm sure people like Hitler and Mussolini have managed it in the past. 

[Strokes]

18 minutes ago, bovril said:

"Fùck all" sounds a bit foreign.

It’s the way you say it.

[fuchsntf]

7 hours ago, FIF said:

 

French Bureaucracy. So many "foreigners" asking for French nationality. Underfunded service. Lazy slow workers ....

 

I always see Wymsey (and he's blocked).

 

Obviously if I was allowed to vote - which I wasn't even though I'm a British Citizen (and only a British citizen) living in the EU - I would have voted Remain but I honestly feel that the referendum result must be upheld. Having a second would be ludicrous. I understand that people didn't "understand" what the real arguments were - tough shit - you should have made sure you did and then you should have ousted all the lying politicians and parties who made false promises and led you along for there own reasons. 

 

If you want riots then riot about that, not about a vote that you made (or didn't).

 

If this was France it wouldn't have even got this far. The extremeist French population would already have been blockading everywhere and burning tyres and pouring shit on representatives lawns and generally making life hell for normal people. During which they would have lost sight of the original aim of their demonstrations and simply railed against everything and everyone.

It's the British tolerance !!  fFs We had a revolution,then cos we couldn't really give a sh#t,we let the royals back...!!

Plus burning tyres,is too much effort to get them out of the shed,behind the lawnmower and homemade beer bottles

Blockades f#k them, my local is the other side!!!

In the end,we just couldn't give a damn!! That's why we can get great politicians at local and backbencher level,but trying to

create a cabinet,is like continual rewinds of the keystone-cops .

[lifted*fox]

No deal will not happen. 

 

May's deal is no good to anybody. We end up with less sovereignty with no representatives in the EU. 

 

The best option is clearly to remain and work for reform from within the EU. 

 

Anything else will lead to centuries of wasted time whilst making everyone poorer. 

 

A complete and total disaster as predicted from the start. We are an international laughing-stock, only second to Trump's America. 

 

This Conservative government needs to die on its sword now. Its social engineering / austerity project has dragged this country into mass poverty on a scale unthinkable for an economy such as ours. These spivs and charlatans have ****ed the people of this country for their own gain and blamed 'foreigners'. In doing so they have ripped the people apart, pointing the figure at each other when the real criminals parade themselves about in daylight with no shame. 

 

They really are clinging to power by a thread. No majority, propped up by purchased support who are also jumping ship. Its a national disgrace. 

 

 

 

 

[fuchsntf]

7 hours ago, FIF said:

 

French Bureaucracy. So many "foreigners" asking for French nationality. Underfunded service. Lazy slow workers ....

 

I always see Wymsey (and he's blocked).

 

Obviously if I was allowed to vote - which I wasn't even though I'm a British Citizen (and only a British citizen) living in the EU - I would have voted Remain but I honestly feel that the referendum result must be upheld. Having a second would be ludicrous. I understand that people didn't "understand" what the real arguments were - tough shit - you should have made sure you did and then you should have ousted all the lying politicians and parties who made false promises and led you along for there own reasons. 

 

If you want riots then riot about that, not about a vote that you made (or didn't).

 

If this was France it wouldn't have even got this far. The extremeist French population would already have been blockading everywhere and burning tyres and pouring shit on representatives lawns and generally making life hell for normal people. During which they would have lost sight of the original aim of their demonstrations and simply railed against everything and everyone.

I would of voted remain..but the Poltical family should of respected the Referendum Brexit ,small majority.

I just feel,it's been a deliberate ploy to cock It up. Anybody who trusted (outside UKIP) the frontline Brexiteers,like Johnson's and Grove,were IMO

simply lied to,and conned.

[Alf Bentley]

Here's Larry Elliott, giving a left-wing argument why Brexit could be successful: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/22/respect-eu-britain-outside-left-economy

 

"There are those who say the answer is not for Britain to leave but to reform Europe from within, so that it is run along progressive rather than neoliberal lines. But Germany is never going to agree to a common budget and the European Commission wants to fine Italy because the government in Rome is seeking to stimulate growth by running a higher deficit than is allowed under the eurozone’s hardline budget rules, so that might take a while. In the meantime, there is an opportunity to do things differently, to exploit the policy space that Brexit affords and tackle the structural problems that have plagued the economy for decades. The right has its plan: more liberalisation. It is time for the left to come up with its own vision that would deploy every available policy tool to modernise the economy, rebuild Britain’s industrial space and spread prosperity more widely. Such a transformation is much more likely to happen outside the EU than inside. That’s because the two most significant UK imports from the rest of Europe – German industrial goods and cheap labour – have helped to bend the economy out of shape by holding back the manufacturing sector and encouraging the growth of low-wage service sector jobs. It is possible to do better than that".

 

I agree with most of his criticism of the EU but....

- I can see the "short-term hit" from Brexit that he describes as being not so very short-term, doing serious economic/social damage, causing social conflict, boosting the Far Right etc. 

- Even if we got the sort of successful left-wing post-Brexit govt that he imagines, it would take them several terms to build the successful economy with new trading partners & new manufacturing industries that he imagines.

- He's clearly an optimist who thinks that the British electorate will vote in such a govt and then support them for several terms through what is bound to be a difficult, rollercoaster transition to his brave new world. Even if such a govt were elected, it's much more likely that voters would turn against them & opt for the Thatcherite bullshitters or nationalists/populists - if they don't turn to them in the first place.

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, bovril said:

"Fùck all" sounds a bit foreign.

 

Maybe @Strokes is one of them there foreign migrants, coming over here stealing our women and burning our hayricks?

 

Could have been worse, though. Could've been "Fùçk æll".

[Buce]

 

"Mr Speaker, the British people want Brexit to be settled.

They want a good deal that sets us on a course for a brighter future.

And they want us to come together as a country and to move on to focus on the big issues at home, like our NHS."

 

Theresa May

 

No, Theresa.

All the current polls suggest that most of us don't want Brexit at all.

Neither camp - Remainers or Leavers - think that you have negotiated a deal that will give us a brighter future.

There will be no 'coming together'; your party has torn this country asunder in a way that will last for generations.

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Maybe @Strokes is one of them there foreign migrants, coming over here stealing our women and burning our hayricks?

 

Could have been worse, though. Could've been "Fùçk æll".

 

Tbf, Strokes is the only Leave voter I've seen give a coherent argument for Brexit (certainly on here) without resorting to buzzwords like 'sovereignty' and 'taking back control'.

[Guest MattP]

19 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Here's Larry Elliott, giving a left-wing argument why Brexit could be successful: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/22/respect-eu-britain-outside-left-economy

 

"There are those who say the answer is not for Britain to leave but to reform Europe from within, so that it is run along progressive rather than neoliberal lines. But Germany is never going to agree to a common budget and the European Commission wants to fine Italy because the government in Rome is seeking to stimulate growth by running a higher deficit than is allowed under the eurozone’s hardline budget rules, so that might take a while. In the meantime, there is an opportunity to do things differently, to exploit the policy space that Brexit affords and tackle the structural problems that have plagued the economy for decades. The right has its plan: more liberalisation. It is time for the left to come up with its own vision that would deploy every available policy tool to modernise the economy, rebuild Britain’s industrial space and spread prosperity more widely. Such a transformation is much more likely to happen outside the EU than inside. That’s because the two most significant UK imports from the rest of Europe – German industrial goods and cheap labour – have helped to bend the economy out of shape by holding back the manufacturing sector and encouraging the growth of low-wage service sector jobs. It is possible to do better than that".

 

I agree with most of his criticism of the EU but....

- I can see the "short-term hit" from Brexit that he describes as being not so very short-term, doing serious economic/social damage, causing social conflict, boosting the Far Right etc. 

- Even if we got the sort of successful left-wing post-Brexit govt that he imagines, it would take them several terms to build the successful economy with new trading partners & new manufacturing industries that he imagines.

- He's clearly an optimist who thinks that the British electorate will vote in such a govt and then support them for several terms through what is bound to be a difficult, rollercoaster transition to his brave new world. Even if such a govt were elected, it's much more likely that voters would turn against them & opt for the Thatcherite bullshitters or nationalists/populists - if they don't turn to them in the first place.

He's certainly right about no chance of remain and reform - I can't believe there are still people who push that line, it was laughable anyway but even more so after the renegotiation Cameron sought with Merkel.

 

A good article though but the main problem of course is going to be how we go about doing this, any sort of manufacturing boom is going to have to compete with countries like China and how we do that when the same governments often want large taxation, higher minimum wage etc is very difficult - the short term effect of it is going to have pretty serious ramifications for borrowing as well as we'll have to sell bonds and gilts at a rate that is pretty high. Exactly the same thing McDonnell knows when he talks about the markets coming for them.

 

I mean let's be quite frank, the socialist left in virtually every single Western country has been a complete disaster in terms of economics, it always seems to end up with private enterprise stifled, a ballooning public sector and a lack of money or investment to pay for it, we could end up with capital controls and the public aren't going to stand for that.

 

Convincing people it's going to be a success this time is the problem, not sticking with it. Look at the USA now - low taxation policy and outrageous economic growth rates in comparison to recent years. 

Edited 22 November 2018 by MattP

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

 

Tbf, Strokes is the only Leave voter I've seen give a coherent argument for Brexit (certainly on here) without resorting to buzzwords like 'sovereignty' and 'taking back control'.

 

I was only being silly, not having a go at our friend with the dog's arse.

[Buce]

5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I was only being silly, not having a go at our friend with the dog's arse.

 

Yes, of course.

 

Do they even have hayricks any more?

[Mike Oxlong]

We need a change of direction at the top 

 

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

A good article though but the main problem of course is going to be how we go about doing this, any sort of manufacturing boom is going to have to compete with countries like China and how we do that when the same governments often want large taxation, higher minimum wage etc is very difficult - the short term effect of it is going to have pretty serious ramifications for borrowing as well as we'll have to sell bonds and gilts at a rate that is pretty high. Exactly the same thing McDonnell knows when he talks about the markets coming for them.

 

 

If anyone, left or right, is serious about building an economically successful Global Britain post-Brexit, they're going to have to find new industries in which the UK can build expertise and become competitive globally. In many existing industries, the UK simply cannot be competitive in other parts of the world due to labour costs, lack of raw materials, transport costs etc. There are limits to how much we can rely on financial services - or on heavily-indebted domestic consumers with stagnant incomes. We cannot hope to export cars to Asia or food to the USA or Africa....not on a much larger scale, anyway, specialist products maybe (Scotch whisky is one of our major exports - to Japan and China, particularly, I think).

 

Elliott has a point, I think, when he asks why Europe doesn't have any equivalents to successful US firms like Facebook or Google, or like eBay (as China does, apparently). I don't know why that is. Maybe part of it is due to scale economies (both US and China having large domestic markets that are much bigger than the UK and more homogenous than the EU). China and other East Asian countries have labour cost advantages that we cannot replicate - though some on the neo-liberal Right might like to try, by using laissez-faire ideology to deregulate, allowing lower pay, longer hours, less protection etc. The US has benefited from high levels of immigration over the decades - both for cheap labour and often for dynamic people highly motivated to succeed.

 

But maybe also the UK and EU haven't done enough to bring together education, research & business, or to incentivise investment, innovation, small businesses, communications between different players - including language skills in an entity like the EU that is multilingual, unlike the US.. Some of that is down to the businesses themselves, but have the authorities done enough at either UK or EU level? Why is there no European equivalent to Facebook, Google, Amazon etc? There are trans-European projects but often in older industries, like Airbus....

[Alf Bentley]

23 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Yes, of course.

 

Do they even have hayricks any more?

 

 

Tends to be hay bales these days, I think. Either that or Strokes and his immigrant mates burnt them all. 

[lifted*fox]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

You're having a laugh about Brexit bringing a boom in public spending. 

 

You're a comedian, sir! 

 

 

Watching Matt roll this hot turd around in glitter is my favourite part of this thread now. 

 

'there must be a silver lining somewhere!' 

 

Edited 22 November 2018 by lifted*fox