The Guvnor Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 20 minutes ago, davieG said: Nine versions of a People’s Vote: how a referendum could look Freddie Sayers December 13 2018, 12:01am, The Times ANDY RAIN/EPA A “People’s Vote” has been presented as an outcome in itself but there are at least nine potential referendums. 1. SIMPLE REMAIN/LEAVE VOTE Fails to address the main argument for another vote, to explain what “leave” really means, and is open to the accusation that people are being asked again in the hope of getting a different result. Estimated result (based on average of past five polls by Kantar, ComRes and YouGov): Remain 52 per cent, Leave 48. 2. BINARY REFERENDUM: REMAIN V NO-DEAL BREXIT The argument for it is that if May’s compromise option is defeated it ceases to be an option, so the people should be offered the two visions. Estimated result (YouGov): Remain 52, Leave 48. 3. BINARY REFERENDUM: REMAIN V MAY’S DEAL The argument for this format is that this deal is the only realistic Brexit on offer. Estimated result (YouGov) Remain 50, Leave 50. 4. BINARY REFERENDUM: DEAL V NO DEAL Little chance of this — it would not get past MPs without a Remain option being included. Estimated result (YouGov): Deal 65, no deal 35. 5. TWO-STAGE REFERENDUM Remain v Leave, followed by a “deal or no deal” follow-up question if Leave wins. This suffers from a major flaw: if Leave wins the first question, it would be undemocratic to restrict the choice of what type of Brexit we have to Leave voters. Estimated result: Remain. 6. THREE-OPTION REFERENDUM REMAIN V DEAL V NO DEAL (FIRST PAST THE POST) This would not happen as the Leave vote would be split in two, so the format is unfair. Estimated result: Remain 46.2 per cent, deal 27.1, no deal 26.6. 7. THREE-OPTION REFERENDUM REMAIN V DEAL V NO DEAL (AV) Voters rank their preferences, the losing option is removed and its votes are reassigned until one option passes 50 per cent. Estimated result (YouGov): Inconclusive. 8. THREE-OPTION REFERENDUM REMAIN V DEAL V NO DEAL (CONDORCET METHOD) Voters are asked to rank their preferences and then the results are reduced to three theoretical head-to-heads. Estimated result (YouGov): Inconclusive. 9. THREE-OPTION REFERENDUM REMAIN V DEAL V NO DEAL (BUCKLIN VOTING) Voters rank their preferences and if one gains 50 per cent on the first round they win. If they don’t, all the second preferences count. Estimated result (YouGov) May’s deal wins, with 87.4 per cent acceding to it as first or second choice, compared with 55.9 per cent for Remain and 47.8 per cent for no deal. Freddie Sayers is the founder of PoliticsHome and a former editor-in-chief of YouGov. Well now I know it's that simple let's go for it.
Jon the Hat Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 1 hour ago, Foxxed said: The German Parliament voted against renegotiating the Brexit withdrawal agreement. So if she can't renegotiation (only clarify) and the UK Parliament votes against that, I guess we'll have a no deal. Here's the beeb on what would happen with WTO rules with a no brexit https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45112872 Will the EU now give us better tariffs for over 50% of our imports and 45% exports now we're outside the EU? And the rest of the world for that matter? I guess that'll be our new year's present to ourselves. Yes clearly the Eu would negotiate lower tariffs for the 5th largest economy in the World than for most other countries, especially as we are a major market. The problem is the time is so short now, so I still think an extension to Article 50 is most likely, either literally that or Norway deal for X years.
Guest Kopfkino Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 1 hour ago, Foxxed said: The German Parliament voted against renegotiating the Brexit withdrawal agreement. So if she can't renegotiation (only clarify) and the UK Parliament votes against that, I guess we'll have a no deal. Here's the beeb on what would happen with WTO rules with a no brexit https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45112872 Will the EU now give us better tariffs for over 50% of our imports and 45% exports now we're outside the EU? And the rest of the world for that matter? I guess that'll be our new year's present to ourselves. No of course not and it's such a basic point that the no-dealers can't get to grips with. Leaving without a deal means we end up like any other third country dealing with the EU, same tariffs due to WTO MFN, same customs checks, same rules regarding airlines, trucks, driving licenses etc. There might be some kind of 'managed' no deal or a patch up to offset some of that due to the fact we've had 45 years of harmonisation, possibly some bilaterals with individual members as has been mooted such as with the Netherlands but they can't go very far due to EU rules. Also this bizarre expectation that we just drop out and then the EU is going to be straight on the phone to negotiate an FTA is so nonsensical it beggars belief.
Foxxed Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said: Yes clearly the Eu would negotiate lower tariffs for the 5th largest economy in the World than for most other countries, especially as we are a major market. The problem is the time is so short now, so I still think an extension to Article 50 is most likely, either literally that or Norway deal for X years. If you think they're going to encourage more Brexits, and make it looks like other EU members would be better off if they leave, all I can say is good luck! I look forward to knowing who you blame when it's apparent the world's largest trading block isn't dependent on its third biggest member.
Foxxed Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/13/prevent-referrals-over-rightwing-extremism-rise-by-over-a-third The number of referrals to the counter extremist prevention unit is up. Schools and universities have to use this. I have a friend working in a college who's had to use this. Since the Manchester bombing his school has had to be even more careful. The guy he referred did come to school with swastikas newly sewen into his jacket and was chatting about buying a gun. It's up in the right wing extremism category. The increase is even more pronounced in the "unclear and confused" category. And is down in the Islamic extremism category although that is still the largest.
Finnaldo Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 46 minutes ago, Foxxed said: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/13/prevent-referrals-over-rightwing-extremism-rise-by-over-a-third The number of referrals to the counter extremist prevention unit is up. Schools and universities have to use this. I have a friend working in a college who's had to use this. Since the Manchester bombing his school has had to be even more careful. The guy he referred did come to school with swastikas newly sewen into his jacket and was chatting about buying a gun. It's up in the right wing extremism category. The increase is even more pronounced in the "unclear and confused" category. And is down in the Islamic extremism category although that is still the largest. There were similar figures from the BBC not that long ago showing a pretty significant rise in prevented far-right terrorist attacks as well. Edit: I’ve found an Independent article on it, 4 within a year https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/terror-attacks-uk-threat-far-right-national-action-isis-nazis-westminster-finsbury-park-a8229876.html
Guest MattP Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 There is a word for people like this. Going to another country to brief against your own country.
Buce Posted 13 December 2018 Author Posted 13 December 2018 8 minutes ago, MattP said: There is a word for people like this. Going to another country to brief against your own country. What word is that?
Jon the Hat Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 4 hours ago, Foxxed said: If you think they're going to encourage more Brexits, and make it looks like other EU members would be better off if they leave, all I can say is good luck! I look forward to knowing who you blame when it's apparent the world's largest trading block isn't dependent on its third biggest member. They are going to be $10Bn a year short in their budget once they lose us. Probably won't notice that though hey!
Jon the Hat Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 2 hours ago, Foxxed said: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/13/prevent-referrals-over-rightwing-extremism-rise-by-over-a-third The number of referrals to the counter extremist prevention unit is up. Schools and universities have to use this. I have a friend working in a college who's had to use this. Since the Manchester bombing his school has had to be even more careful. The guy he referred did come to school with swastikas newly sewen into his jacket and was chatting about buying a gun. It's up in the right wing extremism category. The increase is even more pronounced in the "unclear and confused" category. And is down in the Islamic extremism category although that is still the largest. Not delivering Brexit will make this a whole lot worse. A lot of people voted Brexit because they felt ignored by the political elite, and if the political elite then goes and proves it I think we can expect a real negative outcome, and I am not alone in that.
Foxxed Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 27 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: They are going to be $10Bn a year short in their budget once they lose us. Probably won't notice that though hey! Who can afford to lose the most, us or the world's biggest trading block? Again, if you're correct I'll be happy to congratulate you.
Jon the Hat Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 5 minutes ago, Foxxed said: Who can afford to lose the most, us or the world's biggest trading block? Again, if you're correct I'll be happy to congratulate you. Well put it like this; we are not going to agree, but I don't see a future for the EU. Those paying are not seeing the benefits they once did, and you can bet the Eastern & Southern European nations will lose interest once the free money dries up. You think Germany and France are going to stump up the gap we leave behind in the budget? No they will be forced to reduce spending in the coming years, and that is going to be a huge test for the cohesion of the EU. Personally i don't see it working out. This will happen eventually whether we leave or not. We won't be the last to realise this that if for sure.
Buce Posted 13 December 2018 Author Posted 13 December 2018 1 minute ago, Strokes said: ? He’s an emoji? I don’t get it.
Jimothy Posted 13 December 2018 Posted 13 December 2018 The Tories are so divided they get two seats on Question Time.
leicsmac Posted 14 December 2018 Posted 14 December 2018 5 hours ago, Jon the Hat said: Not delivering Brexit will make this a whole lot worse. A lot of people voted Brexit because they felt ignored by the political elite, and if the political elite then goes and proves it I think we can expect a real negative outcome, and I am not alone in that. I agree with you. I also think that pandering to a minority of neofascists simply because they might cause trouble if you don't isn't a fantastic idea.
leicsmac Posted 14 December 2018 Posted 14 December 2018 In better news... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-46548524 Still a long way to go, but good signs.
Jon the Hat Posted 14 December 2018 Posted 14 December 2018 6 hours ago, leicsmac said: I agree with you. I also think that pandering to a minority of neofascists simply because they might cause trouble if you don't isn't a fantastic idea. We aren’t talking about neo fascists, we are talking about millions of people feeling ever more tucked over by decades of policies which ignore them.
Jon the Hat Posted 14 December 2018 Posted 14 December 2018 So zero help for May from the EU27. No deal is real folks, better start planning.
Guest MattP Posted 14 December 2018 Posted 14 December 2018 9 hours ago, Facecloth said: The Tories are so divided they get two seats on Question Time. 4 v 1 in favour of Remain again as well, the BBC appears to have given up completely on impartiality since the result.
Buce Posted 14 December 2018 Author Posted 14 December 2018 1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said: So zero help for May from the EU27. No deal is real folks, better start planning. Why should they help? It’s their business to look after the interests of the EU, not to make May’s life easier.
Alf Bentley Posted 14 December 2018 Posted 14 December 2018 I see the bloke who carried out the terrorist attack in Strasbourg has been shot dead. No great loss if he's going to do things like that. More importantly, I note that yet again he wasn't someone who came from an especially religious background. He apparently had a long track record as a petty criminal, had spent time in prison - and had been radicalised to Islamic extremism in there. This has been the background of MOST of these terrorists, as far as I can tell. Tackling radicalisation in prisons should be a priority - shouldn't be an impossible task, surely?
leicsmac Posted 14 December 2018 Posted 14 December 2018 4 hours ago, Jon the Hat said: We aren’t talking about neo fascists, we are talking about millions of people feeling ever more tucked over by decades of policies which ignore them. I know you're not. However, although the feelings you describe are valid, acting on them in the way you describe will do nothing but make those neofascists stronger. Unrest in the name of a "stronger" country, taking advantage of it, gaining power because of it - that's practically their bread and butter, what they live for, and on.
Jon the Hat Posted 14 December 2018 Posted 14 December 2018 3 hours ago, Buce said: Why should they help? It’s their business to look after the interests of the EU, not to make May’s life easier. Well probably because no deal is not in the interests of the EU27 either.
Buce Posted 14 December 2018 Author Posted 14 December 2018 7 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: Well probably because no deal is not in the interests of the EU27 either. But the UK reversing the decision to leave is, which is probably a more likely scenario.
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