Alf Bentley Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 17 minutes ago, MattP said: (May is 1/2 to win the vote on Betfair, if I wasn't off the punt I'd be absolutely piling into that) If I wasn't off the booze and you weren't off the betting, I'd bet you a pint that 120+ MPs will vote against May, with a whisky chaser on her being caretaker PM by tomorrow lunchtime. But such thinking probably isn't helpful to either of us in our respective quests for clean living....
lifted*fox Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 I can see how people might have supported Brexit and this Tory government at the start of this whole endeavour but I'm left absolutely mind-blown at the idea that there are people out there who can support any single element of this party after the lying, the outright disgusting lies, the austerity, the poverty, the homelessness, the infighting. If you support this you're unequivocally on the wrong side of this country's history, I'm sorry. I can only await the rediculous seal-clapping if someone like Boris gets the job - any slight ounce of intelligence people claim to have will get flushed right down the toilet. If Boris gets in we can finally say we've hit Trump levels of low.
Nalis Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 And all of this from a petty game between a couple of Bullingdon club boys.
Guest Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 11 minutes ago, lifted*fox said: I can see how people might have supported Brexit and this Tory government at the start of this whole endeavour but I'm left absolutely mind-blown at the idea that there are people out there who can support any single element of this party after the lying, the outright disgusting lies, the austerity, the poverty, the homelessness, the infighting. If you support this you're unequivocally on the wrong side of this country's history, I'm sorry. I can only await the rediculous seal-clapping if someone like Boris gets the job - any slight ounce of intelligence people claim to have will get flushed right down the toilet. If Boris gets in we can finally say we've hit Trump levels of low. The Tories have made themselves a laughing stock, from what was a pretty solid position a stupid decision has crippled them. However what amazes me is the complete lack of an alternative. Labour should have swept into power but the "Corbyn" show is equally ridiculous and "the people" really don't want him or his cronies. And the Liberal Democrats ...wtf. They were looking good made a mistake whilst sharing power and have disappeared from view - this should have been the ideal situation for their revival but I see and hear nothing. Their leadership must be the worst they've ever had. The extremists get more coverage and thankfully for the England, the extremists will always remain extremists unlike in many other countries.
Guest MattP Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 15 minutes ago, lifted*fox said: I can see how people might have supported Brexit and this Tory government at the start of this whole endeavour but I'm left absolutely mind-blown at the idea that there are people out there who can support any single element of this party after the lying, the outright disgusting lies, the austerity, the poverty, the homelessness, the infighting. If you support this you're unequivocally on the wrong side of this country's history, I'm sorry. I can only await the rediculous seal-clapping if someone like Boris gets the job - any slight ounce of intelligence people claim to have will get flushed right down the toilet. If Boris gets in we can finally say we've hit Trump levels of low. Providing the country then hits Trump levels of economic growth I doubt many will care outside the core of professional protesters and offence takers. I'm not saying this government is perfect, it isn't and it's been hopelessly incompetent at times. You can't ignore some of the good though, record low employment, avoidance of financial disaster, taking more of the lowest paid out of tax. I will concede though had the opposition been led by people who hadn't backed horrible regimes in the past and cavorted with all sorts of bigots, holocaust deniers and extremists then the Tories would be dead men walking into a next election. If you seriously think a cabinet full of people like McDonnell, Abbott, Corbyn, Burgon, Gardner and Long-Bailey will be any better you'll be on the wrong side of history, as anyone who supports that brand of politics always has.
Jon the Hat Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 They are all as bad as each other. If nothing else this will hopefully create an opportunity for a new generation of politicians to take over the Conservative and Labour parties in the not too distant future. The government have blown it completely; there are however undoubtedly good people in the conservative party (and indeed in Labour somewhere) who can and should step up.
Jon the Hat Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 16 minutes ago, FIF said: The Tories have made themselves a laughing stock, from what was a pretty solid position a stupid decision has crippled them. However what amazes me is the complete lack of an alternative. Labour should have swept into power but the "Corbyn" show is equally ridiculous and "the people" really don't want him or his cronies. And the Liberal Democrats ...wtf. They were looking good made a mistake whilst sharing power and have disappeared from view - this should have been the ideal situation for their revival but I see and hear nothing. Their leadership must be the worst they've ever had. The extremists get more coverage and thankfully for the England, the extremists will always remain extremists unlike in many other countries. Except no one is actually laughing. Painful.
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 If i were Corbyn - I’d put in the ‘no confidence motion’ as question 6 at PMQ’s today. He won’t though, will he.
davieG Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 Having seen many a political balls up based on dogmatic principles rather than what is best for the country I gave up on party politics years ago and it's just getting worse because we now have dogma+incompetence=chaos.
Guest Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 16 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: Except no one is actually laughing. Painful. You need to get out of the UK a bit - Everyone there is laughing. Some find it funnier than Macron and the Yellow Jackets.
Alf Bentley Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 13 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said: If i were Corbyn - I’d put in the ‘no confidence motion’ as question 6 at PMQ’s today. He won’t though, will he. I'm sure he won't. He know that he has no chance of winning a no confidence vote (even less for now, due to the Tory leadership fiasco). More to the point, he knows that if he tables and loses a confidence vote, his party policy takes him inexorably to calling for a second referendum - which, as a Soft Brexiteer, he doesn't want. If such a confidence vote is called and fails, he'd be under enormous pressure from his largely Remain-supporting party to take the referendum route....and might now be close to winning a parliamentary vote on that. Hence why the LDs, SNP & Greens are calling for it. I assume he'll hold off calling a confidence vote for as long as he can, unless its apparent that he can win it (e.g. due to a new Tory PM alienating one or other Tory faction or the DUP)....meaning he'll share the blame if this fiasco gets worse or we end up in a No Deal scenario. If I were May, I'd be getting ready to taunt him about the lack of a confidence vote at PMQs.
ealingfox Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 23 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said: If i were Corbyn - I’d put in the ‘no confidence motion’ as question 6 at PMQ’s today. He won’t though, will he. Why do people keep saying this? Particularly political hacks who know full well why that's a crap idea and makes no political sense at this point. 100+ MPs have voiced support for the PM this morning supposedly - doesn't mean a lot given these are Tory MPs we're talking about, but I'd still be confident of May surviving the vote. Probably wouldn't nibble at 1/2 though as I'd want to put more down than I can risk losing to make it worth it.
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 3 minutes ago, ealingfox said: Why do people keep saying this? Particularly political hacks who know full well why that's a crap idea and makes no political sense at this point. 100+ MPs have voiced support for the PM this morning supposedly - doesn't mean a lot given these are Tory MPs we're talking about, but I'd still be confident of May surviving the vote. Probably wouldn't nibble at 1/2 though as I'd want to put more down than I can risk losing to make it worth it. I don’t think Corbyn would ever win a no confidence vote in this situation - the numbers would never be in his favour, one thing guaranteed to unite the Conservatives would be the threat of a Labour government - especially a Corbyn one. So for me a ‘no confidence’ motion is more about virtue signalling... a message to the electorate we’ve had enough of this PM - and this signal would look even stronger if May survives tonight. But if she doesn’t survive, the motion would also puts the talk of an election on the agenda - adding pressure to any incoming PM who wouldn’t have a direct public mandate - and this is something Corbyn would prefer more than the continued talk of f a people’s vote.
Guest MattP Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 1 hour ago, DJ Barry Hammond said: If i were Corbyn - I’d put in the ‘no confidence motion’ as question 6 at PMQ’s today. He won’t though, will he. Knowing Corbyn he'll probably start with climate change or something today.
TheUltimateWinner Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 Whenever I see something bigs happened in Politics I'll watch the houses of parliament Why is every debate JC 'ur shit' TM 'no u' *crowd goes OOOo laughs and boos*
Guest MattP Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 51 minutes ago, ealingfox said: Why do people keep saying this? Particularly political hacks who know full well why that's a crap idea and makes no political sense at this point. 100+ MPs have voiced support for the PM this morning supposedly - doesn't mean a lot given these are Tory MPs we're talking about, but I'd still be confident of May surviving the vote. Probably wouldn't nibble at 1/2 though as I'd want to put more down than I can risk losing to make it worth it. 1/5 now. Money piled on her winning it. I'm starting to think this might be the turning point - a big win here and don't see how any Tory MP can vote down her deal. Might come down to DUP v Labour rebels.
Guest Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 6 minutes ago, TheUltimateWinner said: Whenever I see something bigs happened in Politics I'll watch the houses of parliament Why is every debate JC 'ur shit' TM 'no u' *crowd goes OOOo laughs and boos* Welcome to English toffs politics.
davieG Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 Brexit: Tory resentment of Irish power within EU Nicholas Watt Newsnight political editor 11 December 2018 A Tory grandee recently sidled up to me to express grave reservations about the Brexit process. "We simply cannot allow the Irish to treat us like this," the former minister said about the negotiating tactics of the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar. The Conservative MP was exasperated that the Republic of Ireland (population: 4.8m) has been able to shape the EU negotiating stance that has put such pressure on the UK (population: 66m). "This simply cannot stand," the one-time moderniser told me. "The Irish really should know their place." The remarks explained why Conservatives from both sides of the Brexit divide are so troubled by the negotiations. They also explain why Theresa May might find that any concessions from the EU over the Northern Ireland backstop may fall short of the demands of Tory MPs. Over the last few months Tory MPs have asked in private how the Irish Republic can believe its relationship with the EU trumps its relationship with the UK. They cite economic reasons (the Irish Republic's strong trading links with the UK) and the historical relationship. The MPs do of course acknowledge that left a troubled legacy. One minister familiar with Anglo-Irish relations points out that these Tories should bear in mind one date and one word to explain both the Irish and the EU's approach. The date is 1973: when the Irish Republic joined the EEC at the same time as the UK and Denmark. That was the moment when Ireland took a giant political leap at the same time as the UK. But it turned out to be arguably the biggest unilateral strategic move since Partition in the 1920s - a move that defined the modern Irish Republic as an independent state within Europe, with a wholly different approach to its larger neighbour. The word to bear in mind, according to this minister, is "smalls". That defines how the EU makes a point of looking out for the interests of smaller member states, as long as they tally with the wider interests of the EU. Seeking assurances And so the EU has stood by the Taoiseach after he insisted on a definitive and legally binding assurance that there would be no hard border in Ireland after Brexit. That is how the EU ended up demanding that the UK sign up to the backstop - a customs union for Great Britain and thecustoms union for Northern Ireland - in the event of a failure to agree a new trade deal by the end of the transition period. The Northern Ireland backstop is the single most troublesome element of the deal and forced Theresa May to postpone the meaningful vote. The view of the European Research Group: cast out the backstop and most Brexiteers will swallow their doubts in other areas and accept the deal. The view of more supportive voices: soften the backstop with some legal assurances and a significant number of middle ground Brexiteers will sign up to the deal. And so Theresa May took to the skies on Monday night to seek what she called 'assurances' from the EU. She knows that renegotiating the withdrawal agreement would be perilous, because the likes of France would table even more difficult demands. One senior cabinet minister told me the prime minister is therefore looking for a legal codicil, in the form of a letter, to provide a legally binding commitment on the limits of the backstop. One supportive MP said this would need to guarantee that the backstop could last no more than a year if it is triggered. The EU is saying it wants to help but in a very limited way. Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, said before his meeting with the prime minister that the EU would provide "further clarifications and interpretations". But there would be "no room whatsoever for renegotiation". As the minister familiar with Anglo-Irish history said, the Irish Republic is standing by its decision of 1973 and the club is looking after its own. And that is what alarms so many Tories: after centuries of troubled Anglo-Irish relations it is the smaller of the two islands which appears to be exercising greater power for the first time.
leicsmac Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 18 minutes ago, MattP said: Knowing Corbyn he'll probably start with climate change or something today. On the one hand, yeah, really not the time to be discussing that - not when the house seems to be burning down now. On the other, go ahead and find me an issue with more far-reaching and long-term consequences than the above. I'm happy to wait. (As for the matter at hand, anyone else think May will get through this vote and it'll be as you were for at least the next few months?)
davieG Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 If she does win I don't think we can expect any movement at all From the EU so could end up being counter productive for all those wanting a different approach
Foxxed Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 On 10/12/2018 at 17:24, Jon the Hat said: Not even that, selling some stuff that you sell overseas. And again, your numbers are nonsense. We buy more in absolute $ from EU countries than they do from us. Third biggest economy in the EU. You would do well to realise the EU also know they are going to be ****ed in the next few years without our money. You're right. I quoted the stats for exporting and importing. Not overall wealth. But this is why a no-deal is a terrible idea and a terrible bluff. Look at the vans on the motorway next time you're driving. Every other van will contain something coming from the EU or going to the EU. The EU can raise tariffs on every good in those vans. The EU can change the required bureaucratic systems. This could very well ruin businesses. That is, a Tory policy, a Tory government could ruin businesses. The Tory party built on being 'strong for business' could ruin businesses. It would destroy the reputation Thatcher built and subsequent Tories carried through. It would strike at the heart of the Tory party. That's why it's a terrible bluff. It's the Tory party going to the EU with a gun to their own head screaming, "Give me what I want or I'll kill myself and my party for generations!"
Alf Bentley Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 29 minutes ago, MattP said: 1/5 now. Money piled on her winning it. I'm starting to think this might be the turning point - a big win here and don't see how any Tory MP can vote down her deal. Might come down to DUP v Labour rebels. Last I saw, about 110 Tory MPs had proclaimed their support for May & only 4 had said they'd vote against her.....but clearly at least 48 intend to do so, and 110 still leaves 205 who've said nothing. I wonder how much of that betting is informed betting and how much ill-informed? If she does win big, that will represent monumentally incompetent politics by the ERG, calling for a confidence vote that secures May in power for a year and strengthen's her position. If her deal is put to the Commons, unchanged bar a few warm words from the EU27, surely a lot of the Hard Brexiteers would still oppose it, along with a few Centrists who want a referendum?
Guest Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 2 minutes ago, Foxxed said: You're right. I quoted the stats for exporting and importing. Not overall wealth. But this is why a no-deal is a terrible idea and a terrible bluff. Look at the vans on the motorway next time you're driving. Every other van will contain something coming from the EU or going to the EU. The EU can raise tariffs on every good in those vans. The EU can change the required bureaucratic systems. This could very well ruin businesses. That is, a Tory policy, a Tory government could ruin businesses. The Tory party built on being 'strong for business' could ruin businesses. It would destroy the reputation Thatcher built and subsequent Tories carried through. It would strike at the heart of the Tory party. That's why it's a terrible bluff. It's the Tory party going to the EU with a gun to their own head screaming, "Give me what I want or I'll kill myself and my party for generations!" Could change / can raise. This is as much "scare" tactics as before the Brexit vote. they could decrease tariffs, thay can change systems for the better. I find it hard to believe that the EU are going to hurt their own exporters and importers. Sure things may not be as good for UK business but I doubt they will be that much worse people need to get a grip.
leicsmac Posted 12 December 2018 Posted 12 December 2018 This going on in the UK, the demonstrations in France, the continuing upheaval in the US... Seems to be an awful lot of instability about right now.
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