urban.spaceman Posted 11 December 2018 Share Posted 11 December 2018 2 hours ago, MattP said: Imagine agreeing to do a comedy night for charity, free of charge - then turning up and being asked to comply with this. I actually like being offended. But this offends me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 48 letters in - May to face vote of no confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 Strong and stable government everybody Who are the challengers gonna be then? Am I right in thinking if she stays she can't be challenged again for a year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 Well they need 150 something in the ballot so either they get the numbers or she’s here for another 12 months. The alternatives are a tad scary and wouldn’t likely be in place until mid January which would certainly mean an extension to article 50 I would think - or no deal which I just can’t envisage happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Facecloth said: Strong and stable government everybody Who are the challengers gonna be then? Am I right in thinking if she stays she can't be challenged again for a year? Yep. I think she'll win tonight anyway - if they only just reached 48 letters I can't see another 120 odd coming out to dismiss her. Bookies have next Tory leader close, Sajid Javid the favourite closely followed by Boris, Hunt and Raab. Edited 12 December 2018 by MattP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lionator Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 13 minutes ago, MattP said: Yep. I think she'll win tonight anyway - if they only just reached 48 letters I can't see another 120 odd coming out to dismiss her. Bookies have next Tory leader close, Sajid Javid the favourite closely followed by Boris, Hunt and Raab. The thought of Boris is utterly terrifying. I think she'll survive this however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guvnor Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 11 minutes ago, MattP said: Yep. I think she'll win tonight anyway - if they only just reached 48 letters I can't see another 120 odd coming out to dismiss her. Bookies have next Tory leader close, Sajid Javid the favourite closely followed by Boris, Hunt and Raab. The difference being Matt ,as you will be aware , it's a secret ballot tonight so the night of the long swords. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 9 minutes ago, MattP said: Yep. I think she'll win tonight anyway - if they only just reached 48 letters I can't see another 120 odd coming out to dismiss her. Bookies have next Tory leader close, Sajid Javid the favourite closely followed by Boris, Hunt and Raab. I reckon that, ironically, the fact that it took them so long to get to 48 letters has given them a much better chance of winning a no-confidence vote. If the vote had happened even a week ago, I'm sure she'd have won it comfortably. But she's now going into it having pulled the Commons vote after it became obvious she was facing a massive defeat, having made clear that she has no plan to negotiate anything different and having made herself look ridiculous traipsing around Europe having European leaders politely tell her "no renegotiation, no significant concessions". That look, combined with the party voting system, works against her. Tory MPs will vote in a secret ballot and in the knowledge that if she wins the confidence vote they won't be able to challenge her again for a year. I'd expect the vote against her to be well into 3-figures and she might well be a gonner.....not that I have many contacts among Tory MPs, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 This could make things massively awkward for Corbyn, too. If May loses the confidence vote and a leadership contest is triggered, there'll surely be zero chance of Corbyn winning a parliamentary vote of no confidence in the govt until at least January. The DUP & Tory Hard Brexiteers will stay loyal to the Tories, hoping for a new Hard Brexit leader. The Tory Remainers will stay loyal, hoping for a new leader open to Norway+ or a referendum. In the meantime, Labour supporters of a referendum will be pushing Corbyn for that, while some in other parties may continue to push him to table a no-confidence vote, given the fiasco in the Tory party, lame duck PM etc. If May goes and is replaced by someone seeking Canada+ or open to No Deal, that probably boosts the chances of a second referendum, as Tory Remainers could switch to that. If she does lose and there is a leadership contest, it'll be interesting to hear what stance is taken by pragmatists like Javid or even Gove, who could win support from both wings of the party. If there is a contest, there's bound to be all sorts of manoeuvring between different candidates. Remainer MPs and pragmatists must know that if a credible Hard Brexiteer is one of the 2 names presented to the party membership, then they'll probably win. Remainers and pragmatists will want to manoeuvre to get 2 big-name pragmatists to the final vote, I expect. Back in the real world, this isn't going to be great for public confidence or business confidence, if there's a delay over the Brexit decision until at least January. I wonder what May does if she wins the confidence vote but has a big vote against her (120-157)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guvnor Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 Theres no appetite for her deal that's obvious, so even if there would be slight tweeking, no significant ammendments from the EU are going to be possible before the ballot tonight. So it boils down to tthe Brexiteers who want a fresh set of negotiations with someone who believes in Brexit, and the remainers who may be hoping for a second referendum , which is looking more likely now , and the chance to keep the "status quo' with our membership of the EU. Throw into the mix a possible call of an election and it makes the vote even more intriguing, due to the latter I suspect she might just scrape through tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Izzy Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 G'won Theresa. Keep fighting gal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said: G'won Theresa. Keep fighting gal Worst pm ever. Edited 12 December 2018 by Facecloth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon the Hat Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 I think she might well lose, but it is not a foregone conclusion. We really do need new leader though, someone who is bold enough to take strong action to either back no deal and explain what they are going to do unilaterally to minimize the impact; Personally I don't believe this is nearly as scary as people like to make out. Who that leader is I am not clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Izzy Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 6 minutes ago, Facecloth said: Worst pm ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon the Hat Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 8 minutes ago, Facecloth said: Worst pm ever. Clearly not, but not the PM for the mess we are currently in. She dropped the ball about a year ago imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lifted*fox Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 1 hour ago, The Guvnor said: The difference being Matt ,as you will be aware , it's a secret ballot tonight so the night of the long swords. 1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said: Combined with the party voting system, works against her. Tory MPs will vote in a secret ballot and in the knowledge that if she wins the confidence vote they won't be able to challenge her again for a year. I'd expect the vote against her to be well into 3-figures and she might well be a gonner.....not that I have many contacts among Tory MPs, of course. I know it's secret bit I still don't see how it can crawl to 48 letters over a period of months and then win a vote in a day with over 100 on top adding to the total. I might be completely wrong but I think she will win this fairly comfortably. Wouldn't surprise me if it was similar to when Redwood challenged Major. I know what you mean on the long game - but overwhelming opinion in the Conservative party is still that Corbyn poses a bigger economic risk to Britain than Brexit. 11 minutes ago, Facecloth said: Worst pm ever. Behave. In recent history we've had Wilson going cap in hand to the IMF and Eden overseeing Suez. Both of those problems of their own making as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Wall Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 19 minutes ago, Facecloth said: Worst pm ever. And nobody has put this up? Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 6 minutes ago, MattP said: I know it's secret bit I still don't see how it can crawl to 48 letters over a period of months and then win a vote in a day with over 100 on top adding to the total. I might be completely wrong but I think she will win this fairly comfortably. Wouldn't surprise me if it was similar to when Redwood challenged Major. I know what you mean on the long game - but overwhelming opinion in the Conservative party is still that Corbyn poses a bigger economic risk to Britain than Brexit. Likewise, I might be completely wrong. I'm not necessarily assuming that she'll lose, but am expecting a big vote against her, in the absence of new developments. I suspect that there are a lot of MPs on both wings of the Tory party who wouldn't have chosen to trigger a leadership election, but are unhappy with what May is doing. The fact that a vote has been triggered and that she'll be immune to leadership challenges for a year if she survives this one could push many of them to vote against her. On top of that, the vote is taking place at a time when she has been publicly humiliated in parliament and across Europe, and when she doesn't seem to have a Plan B (unless she announces something else today, before the vote?). I don't think this is a good development, btw. The politicians need to get on with addressing the Brexit issue, working out what solution can command majority support and ending all the chaos - not adding to it with a leadership contest. The longer all this lasts, the more damage will be done to the economy and the more people will become cynical about our democratic politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lifted*fox Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: I don't think this is a good development, btw. The politicians need to get on with addressing the Brexit issue, working out what solution can command majority support and ending all the chaos - not adding to it with a leadership contest. The longer all this lasts, the more damage will be done to the economy and the more people will become cynical about our democratic politics. Completely agree. They all seem to have forgotten they delegated a vote to the people, the people gave them the decision and they now have to find a way to implement that decision. If May does win this tonight it's time for the ERG to shut up. (May is 1/2 to win the vote on Betfair, if I wasn't off the punt I'd be absolutely piling into that) Edited 12 December 2018 by MattP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 Much ado about nothing. Sometimes the UK still think they are one third of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 15 minutes ago, Max Wall said: And nobody has put this up? Jesus No, Jesus was a popular, charismatic leader with a lot of left-wing social policies, even if I don't believe he was the son of God. I assumed we were judging the effectiveness of PMs, not their morality? If so, my vote goes to Cameron as worst PM ever. May has handled this Brexit fiasco very badly, but it was Cameron who needlessly created it. He promised a referendum for cynical party management reasons, having spent years carping about the EU while damaging the country and sowing discontent with his austerity economics. He then ran a useless, utterly cynical Remain campaign, causing the biggest UK crisis in living memory - one that could affect us for decades to come. Thatcher might have been the most evil PM ever (subjective judgment, obviously!) but she was pretty effective at implementing the evil she intended. Like half the country, I hated what she did, but she meant to do it - and half the country loved it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lifted*fox Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 4 minutes ago, FIF said: Much ado about nothing. Sometimes the UK still think they are one third of the world. ****ing embarrassed to be from this country at the moment. Seeing how above their station people are, thinking we're something special in the world when we're just a massive laughing stock and everybody now thinks we're inward. Brexit is self-harm on a collosal scale and instead understanding its nothing other than a internal power struggle from a horrendous tory government many people have shown their true colours and instead of fighting it have empowered them to act like this. Just incredible. No wonder the rest of the world has got their popcorn out, we look like ****ing idiots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lifted*fox Posted 12 December 2018 Share Posted 12 December 2018 Yep. A People's Vote is a travesty to democracy but this bunch of incompetent dickheads get to have another vote when they feel like it. Hypocrisy we've become accustomed to, tbh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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