Kasper Schmeichel's Performance in Recent Years

[sdkessler]

Kasper Schmeichel is without a doubt a club legend. However, there's something I find really enigmatic about his performance. Most people say that he's a great goalkeeper and I think so too but statistically, he has been one of the poorest goalkeepers in the past 3 years in terms of shot-stopping. It is something that most don't seem to realise so I will try to just put out the stat that suggest this, his expected goals (xG) conceded.

 

First and foremost, what is xG? Here's a definition by Opta:

 

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.

Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.

 

It's much easier to explain with this short video from Opta for much better clarity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7zPZsLGK18

 

Now, the xG model differs slightly according to different data analytics companies so we will look at a few different ones to avoid any bias.

 

Understat

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

Understat is a great free online resource for xG stats in the EPL. Let's look at Leicester's xG conceded in the past 3 seasons:

 

2018/2019

Goals Conceded : 48

Expected Goals Conceded : 44.64

Difference : -3.36

 

2017/2018

Goals Conceded : 60

Expected Goals Conceded : 49.36

Difference : -10.64

 

2016/2017

Goals Conceded : 63

Expected Goals Conceded : 51.30

Difference : -11.70

 

Total difference : -25.7

 

This means that in the past 3 seasons, Leicester has conceded 25.7 more goals than we should have on average, based on the type of shots taken by the opponents. This isn't just being unlucky because it spans consistently over 3 seasons. This is also not an effect of defensive quality as good defending would reduce the expected goals conceded, not the difference. The difference is generally affected by shot quality and goalkeeping performance. However, I highly doubt that strikers have been so consistently overperforming and getting lucky against us over 3 seasons so this highly suggest a lack of shot-stopping quality by Leicester City. On the plus side, last season wasn't nearly as bad the previous 2.

 

Optapro Season Review 2018/2019

https://www.optasportspro.com/static/8-create-season-review.html

 

This is a great statistical review of last season just published by Opta. There's many great discussions that we can have from this (such as how Harvey Barnes has the best attacking build-up stat in the entire league) but we will just look at the goalkeeper stats for now:

 

 

So, what the heck do those stats mean?

 

 

xGOT is the best metric for shot-stopping because it takes into account the quality of the shot as well as the original xG of the shot as well. So, this means that Kasper conceded 48 goals whereas the average EPL goalkeeper would have only conceded 40.51 goals in his shoes. According to Opta's xGOT model, Kasper has conceded 7.49 goals more than the average goalkeeper would have in his shoes last season and his goal prevented rate is the 4th lowest in the league.

 

StrataBet

https://www.theringer.com/2018/2/23/17042808/soccer-david-de-gea-goalkeeper-manchester-united-jose-mourinho-premier-league

 

It was hard to find any data on the internet from this source but this was their xG2 model on the 2017/18 season (until Feb 2018). xG2 is similar to Opta's xGOT model where they take the quality of the shots into account:

 

 

 

Again, Leicester City nearly at the bottom of a list that measures goalkeeping ability. 

 

Sky Sports

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/11648752/which-premier-league-goalkeeper-should-claim-england-no-1-jersey

 

Earlier this year (March 2019), Sky Sports made some more interesting analysis on goalkeeping quality. There's many statistics here. Let's look at some of them:

 

 

 

The shot-stopping graph suggests Kasper is below average in shot-stopping abilities last season and the overall graph takes into account distribution quality and how they deal with crosses as well.

 

Conclusion

Kasper Schmeichel is viewed as a great goalkeeper in the eyes of many. However, the stats really suggest that he has been greatly underperforming in the past 3 seasons, especially when it comes to shot-stopping. I find it really interesting that it has gone under the radar for so long. Most of us believe that Schmeichel is a great shot-stopper but the stats seem to suggest otherwise. Now, I'm not trying to fuel any fight over Kasper Schmeichel. I'm not trying to undermine him. I'm just pointing out the most important stat that many people have overlooked and I think that it would be a massive factor in our top 6 push if the trend continues into the following season.

 

What do you guys think about this? Let's discuss and please be civil. If you have more sources on goalkeeping stats in the past few years, please post it. Thank you.

 

EDIT: Most people, including me, think that Schmeichel is a good shot-stopper without looking at any stats. However, the expected goals metrics from multiple reliable sources suggest otherwise. This is very interesting because it contradicts with what most of us believe, eventhough we watch him week in, week out. Before you say that the stats are wrong, they are all pretty reliable sources, are pretty accurate on most things and they all suggest the same thing. It is highly unlikely that all of them are wrong on this single matter.

Edited 13 July 2019 by sdkessler
clarified the conclusion

[Stadt]

Agreed, all the advanced metrics I've seen over the past few seasons (you've posted most of them) have suggested the same. I'd say it's mostly his ability to save long range efforts that let him down but without analysing the goals we've conceded it's hard to be conclusive.

 

In his defence though, we'd have spend a considerable amount to get a better keeper and there's the intangibles he brings like leadership and commitment.

Edited 13 July 2019 by Stadt

[sdkessler]

2 minutes ago, Stadt said:

Agreed, all the advanced metrics I've seen over the past few seasons (you've posted most of them) have suggested the same. I'd say it's mostly his ability to save long range efforts that let him down but without analysing the goals we've conceded it's hard to be conclusive.

Yes, that's the main issue when it comes to xG. However, the xG2 stat by StrataBet and the xGOT takes into account the quality of the shot. Here's what the creator of the xG2 model said:

 

For my last piece for The Ringer, I created a second xG model (xG2) that included the quality of the shot taken in addition to the quality of the chance itself. If a player gets a good chance but misses the target, it will get 0 xG2. If he puts it into the top corner with pace, it might get 0.8 or higher depending on the situation. In that context, it was used from the point of view of the shooter, but it can easily be inverted to assess the impact of a goalkeeper. If a team is conceding fewer open-play shots on target than the shot quality model expects, their goalkeeper is saving shots that otherwise might have gone in. As it turns out, United have been relying heavily on their Spanish savior. They have conceded 10 fewer open-play goals than the shot-quality model would expect, given the shots on target that de Gea has faced.

 

So, it mostly calculates the probability based on the goalkeeper's perspective. Long range shots that are accurate would have a higher xG2 value than a short ranged effort that's straight towards the keeper.

[Stadt]

27 minutes ago, sdkessler said:

Yes, that's the main issue when it comes to xG. However, the xG2 stat by StrataBet and the xGOT takes into account the quality of the shot. Here's what the creator of the xG2 model said:

 

For my last piece for The Ringer, I created a second xG model (xG2) that included the quality of the shot taken in addition to the quality of the chance itself. If a player gets a good chance but misses the target, it will get 0 xG2. If he puts it into the top corner with pace, it might get 0.8 or higher depending on the situation. In that context, it was used from the point of view of the shooter, but it can easily be inverted to assess the impact of a goalkeeper. If a team is conceding fewer open-play shots on target than the shot quality model expects, their goalkeeper is saving shots that otherwise might have gone in. As it turns out, United have been relying heavily on their Spanish savior. They have conceded 10 fewer open-play goals than the shot-quality model would expect, given the shots on target that de Gea has faced.

 

So, it mostly calculates the probability based on the goalkeeper's perspective. Long range shots that are accurate would have a higher xG2 value than a short ranged effort that's straight towards the keeper.

I'd missed that and had never heard of that model until now actually. It's especially damning in the sense that we've mostly played fairly conservatively in our time in the premier league, you could excuse these numbers a little bit if we had fewer players back and we were caught on the break often where obviously keepers have more to do but it's not the case. 

 

I like Kasper, he's a legend and brings a lot to the table but considering his distribution isn't the best and we play out more often than ever maybe we should be looking at a replacement next season if it's worth 5 points a season.

Edited 13 July 2019 by Stadt

[sdkessler]

1 minute ago, Stadt said:

I'd missed that and had never heard of that model until now actually. It's especially damning in the sense that we've mostly played fairly conservatively in our time in the premier league, you could excuse these numbers a little bit if we had fewer players back and we were caught on the break often where obviously keepers have more to do but it's not the case. 

 

I like Kasper, he's legend and brings a lot but considering his distribution isn't the best and we play out more often than ever maybe we should be looking at a replacement next season if it's worth 5 points a season.

It's not a popular stat. It's very hard to find on the internet and I cannot confirm how accurate it is. I only made this post because OptaPro released their season review yesterday which has the xGOT model which is a very similar model and I think that it should be accurate enough, especially since it's Opta. Now I have several sources and some are pretty credible.

 

If we were caught on the break, it would increase our expected goals conceded for sure but Kasper would be able to make more saves as well so it wouldn't affect the ratio. The difference is a value that shouldn't be affected by the defence.

 

Good defence = low expected goals

Bad defence = high expected goals

Good goalkeeping = Less goals conceded than expected

Bad goalkeeping = More goals conceded than expected

 

Lukasz Fabianski's stats are a great example of good goalkeeping + bad defence

Kepa Arrizabalaga's stats are a great example of below average goalkeeping + good defence

[Aus Fox]

Hmmm I’m not sure about these stats. I don’t think Kasper ever lets us down, can’t think of any howlers he’s had. I think most games he makes at least one great save and one on one I think he’s up there with the best keepers out there.

[Nick]

Is their some kind of opta metric available to gauge patronising writing styles?

[sdkessler]

10 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Hmmm I’m not sure about these stats. I don’t think Kasper ever lets us down, can’t think of any howlers he’s had. I think most games he makes at least one great save and one on one I think he’s up there with the best keepers out there.

That's the point I'm trying to make. It seems that he's doing pretty well and most people believe that he's one of the best but statistically, he's been doing poorly. I find this rather strange. If I hadn't seen these stats, I wouldn't have thought that he has been doing nearly as poorly as he has been. My hypothesis is that he does well when he's in the spotlight and in big games (Champion's League and World Cup for example) but rather poorly for most of the season.

[Royston.]

Kasper schmeichel.

 

Goalkeeper throughout the greatest period in leicester city's history but he's actually not that good.

 

[Vacamion]

4 hours ago, sdkessler said:

Kasper Schmeichel is without a doubt a club legend. However... 

 

40 posts, SD Kessler ? 

 

Joined FT mid 2017 ?

 

You are Eldin Jakupovic and I claim my £5.

 

 

Stats are fun, I suppose, but my eyes tell me Kasper was NOT the thing about our team after 2016 which needed to be fixed. 

 

The statistic I want to see about Kasper is the one which kills, for all time, the lazy commentator's trope about how awesome his distribution is. 

 

Stats also won't measure what an utter Mensch he is, who has been a rock for his team mates in good times and tragic ones. 

 

He won't be displaced or moved any time soon. 

 

[sdkessler]

18 minutes ago, Vacamion said:

 

40 posts, SD Kessler ? 

 

Joined FT mid 2017 ?

 

You are Eldin Jakupovic and I claim my £5.

 

 

Stats are fun, I suppose, but my eyes tell me Kasper was NOT the thing about our team after 2016 which needed to be fixed. 

 

The statistic I want to see about Kasper is the one which kills, for all time, the lazy commentator's trope about how awesome his distribution is. 

 

Stats also won't measure what an utter Mensch he is, who has been a rock for his team mates in good times and tragic ones. 

 

He won't be displaced or moved any time soon. 

 

I'm been inactive for 2 years. I last used this account to discuss a 3-4-3 formation built around Maguire shortly after Leicester signed him. People weren't really interested as he was a new player back then. Fast forward 1 year and he won player of the year. I knew how good he would become because of stats.

 

Back to Schmeichel. I never said he needed replacing but I'm just bringing a pretty concerning stat to attention. Whether you look at the stat or ignore it is entirely up to you. As for Schmeichel's distribution, while I think that it is inconsistent, it's better than most think and is definitely a weapon to bypass a high press. Guardiola pretty much says the same thing:

 

In case you guys didn't realize, we did well in the first half against Man City because Schmeichel was beating their high pressure with consistent long balls to our fullbacks. Man City's greatest strength is their pressing, which he successfully nullified for an entire half.

[volpeazzurro]

11 minutes ago, Vacamion said:

 

40 posts, SD Kessler ? 

 

Joined FT mid 2017 ?

 

You are Eldin Jakupovic and I claim my £5.

 

 

Stats are fun, I suppose, but my eyes tell me Kasper was NOT the thing about our team after 2016 which needed to be fixed. 

 

The statistic I want to see about Kasper is the one which kills, for all time, the lazy commentator's trope about how awesome his distribution is. 

 

Stats also won't measure what an utter Mensch he is, who has been a rock for his team mates in good times and tragic ones. 

 

He won't be displaced or moved any time soon. 

 

I think you're right, he won't be displaced any time soon. I think he has become too much part of the furniture of the club for that, which personally, I find unhealthy as players should be chosen on ability and not nostalgia.

 

Supporters eyes and what they see differ and it's all about differing opinions really. Caspar has some very good abilities ie I think in 'one on one' situations he has to be one of the best in the Premiership yet surely nobody can fail to see his clear inability to command his area from corners and certain set peices, this is a long standing issue from his days even at Manchester City and Eriksson commented on this in interview saying that it was the reason why he always preferred Joe Hart. We can't deny this flaw, it's blindingly obvious. It's a strange one because I don't think it's lack of bottle, his 'one on ones' bear testament to that.

 

He's not the tallest in the Premiership but neither is he small. Corners against us rely totally on defenders, he may as well be sitting in the stands. What has he done to try and rectify this?  What have our coaches done about it or are they frightened of his obvious big gob, personality and status within the club. 

 

His overall distribution is poor and appears to be getting worse. Often, it just appears like he's trying an egotistical Hollywood pass for his own self agrandisation rather than a more obvious opportunity for the betterment of the team . It didn't always cost us due to good defending and recovery by our players but, how many times last season did such rediculous passing put us in potential danger.

 

I don't pretend to thoroughly understand stats like these but I do think they represent the truth in this case. Sometimes what supporters see is semi-blinded by loyalty. I would look at a goalkeeper like Etheridge from a team at the bottom of the table last year and think them to be quite superior to Caspar who was fortunate to have a better defensive unit in front of him. My views are merely just my views and are most possibly likely to be unpopular but, these stats merely tend to back up what I personally see with my eyes every week. I  would like to see Ward given a few more options next season to see how he compares after a reasonable investment in him, but I do think we've needed an upgrade for some time now.

[sdkessler]

1 minute ago, volpeazzurro said:

I think you're right, he won't be displaced any time soon. I think he has become too much part of the furniture of the club for that, which personally, I find unhealthy as players should be chosen on ability and not nostalgia.

 

Supporters eyes and what they see differ and it's all about differing opinions really. Caspar has some very good abilities ie I think in 'one on one' situations he has to be one of the best in the Premiership yet surely nobody can fail to see his clear inability to command his area from corners and certain set peices, this is a long standing issue from his days even at Manchester City and Eriksson commented on this in interview saying that it was the reason why he always preferred Joe Hart. We can't deny this flaw, it's blindingly obvious. It's a strange one because I don't think it's lack of bottle, his 'one on ones' bear testament to that.

 

He's not the tallest in the Premiership but neither is he small. Corners against us rely totally on defenders, he may as well be sitting in the stands. What has he done to try and rectify this?  What have our coaches done about it or are they frightened of his obvious big gob, personality and status within the club. 

 

His overall distribution is poor and appears to be getting worse. Often, it just appears like he's trying an egotistical Hollywood pass for his own self agrandisation rather than a more obvious opportunity for the betterment of the team . It didn't always cost us due to good defending and recovery by our players but, how many times last season did such rediculous passing put us in potential danger.

 

I don't pretend to thoroughly understand stats like these but I do think they represent the truth in this case. Sometimes what supporters see is semi-blinded by loyalty. I would look at a goalkeeper like Etheridge from a team at the bottom of the table last year and think them to be quite superior to Caspar who was fortunate to have a better defensive unit in front of him. My views are merely just my views and are most possibly likely to be unpopular but, these stats merely tend to back up what I personally see with my eyes every week. I  would like to see Ward given a few more options next season to see how he compares after a reasonable investment in him, but I do think we've needed an upgrade for some time now.

Thank you. I'm simply trying to bring up a pretty big issue that I've noticed for a while now and I just hope that people don't get clouded by nostalgia. I've had lots of doubts about bringing it up because I feared that people will just shoot it down instantly because it contradicts with what they already believe.

 

If you don't get what any of these stats mean, just ask me. I'll be happy to explain.

[st albans fox]

I guess this could explain why we haven’t had any teams chasing him hard ......

 

given these stats, we probably wouldn’t be signing him if we needed a keeper ....... yet most would say he is a brilliant shot stopper and it’s his command of his box that’s the issue 

 

perhaps his lack of a couple of inches means he cannot quite get to shots that taller keepers are tipping around the post or over the bar ???

[Foxhateram]

5 hours ago, sdkessler said:

Kasper Schmeichel is without a doubt a club legend. However, there's something I find really enigmatic about his performance. Most people say that he's a great goalkeeper and I think so too but statistically, he has been one of the poorest goalkeepers in the past 3 years in terms of shot-stopping. It is something that most don't seem to realise so I will try to just put out the stat that suggest this, his expected goals (xG) conceded.

 

First and foremost, what is xG? Here's a definition by Opta:

 

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.

Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.

 

It's much easier to explain with this short video from Opta for much better clarity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7zPZsLGK18

 

Now, the xG model differs slightly according to different data analytics companies so we will look at a few different ones to avoid any bias.

 

Understat

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

Understat is a great free online resource for xG stats in the EPL. Let's look at Leicester's xG conceded in the past 3 seasons:

 

2018/2019

Goals Conceded : 48

Expected Goals Conceded : 44.64

Difference : -3.36

 

2017/2018

Goals Conceded : 60

Expected Goals Conceded : 49.36

Difference : -10.64

 

2016/2017

Goals Conceded : 63

Expected Goals Conceded : 51.30

Difference : -11.70

 

Total difference : -25.7

 

This means that in the past 3 seasons, Leicester has conceded 25.7 more goals than we should have on average, based on the type of shots taken by the opponents. This isn't just being unlucky because it spans consistently over 3 seasons. This is also not an effect of defensive quality as good defending would reduce the expected goals conceded, not the difference. The difference is generally affected by shot quality and goalkeeping performance. However, I highly doubt that strikers have been so consistently overperforming and getting lucky against us over 3 seasons so this highly suggest a lack of shot-stopping quality by Leicester City. On the plus side, last season wasn't nearly as bad the previous 2.

 

Optapro Season Review 2018/2019

https://www.optasportspro.com/static/8-create-season-review.html

 

This is a great statistical review of last season just published by Opta. There's many great discussions that we can have from this (such as how Harvey Barnes has the best attacking build-up stat in the entire league) but we will just look at the goalkeeper stats for now:

 

 

So, what the heck do those stats mean?

 

 

xGOT is the best metric for shot-stopping because it takes into account the quality of the shot as well as the original xG of the shot as well. So, this means that Kasper conceded 48 goals whereas the average EPL goalkeeper would have only conceded 40.51 goals in his shoes. According to Opta's xGOT model, Kasper has conceded 7.49 goals more than the average goalkeeper would have in his shoes last season and his goal prevented rate is the 4th lowest in the league.

 

StrataBet

https://www.theringer.com/2018/2/23/17042808/soccer-david-de-gea-goalkeeper-manchester-united-jose-mourinho-premier-league

 

It was hard to find any data on the internet from this source but this was their xG2 model on the 2017/18 season (until Feb 2018). xG2 is similar to Opta's xGOT model where they take the quality of the shots into account:

 

 

 

Again, Leicester City nearly at the bottom of a list that measures goalkeeping ability. 

 

Sky Sports

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/11648752/which-premier-league-goalkeeper-should-claim-england-no-1-jersey

 

Earlier this year (March 2019), Sky Sports made some more interesting analysis on goalkeeping quality. There's many statistics here. Let's look at some of them:

 

 

 

The shot-stopping graph suggests Kasper is below average in shot-stopping abilities last season and the overall graph takes into account distribution quality and how they deal with crosses as well.

 

Conclusion

Kasper Schmeichel is viewed as a great goalkeeper in the eyes of many. However, the stats really suggest that he has been greatly underperforming in the past 3 seasons, especially when it comes to shot-stopping. I find it really interesting that it has gone under the radar for so long. Now, I'm not trying to fuel any fight over Kasper Schmeichel. I'm not trying to undermine him. I'm just pointing out the most important stat that many people have overlooked and I think that it would be a massive factor in our top 6 push if the trend continues into the following season.

 

What do you guys think about this? Let's discuss and please be civil. If you have more sources on goalkeeping stats in the past few years, please post it. Thank you.

Not this again!  Every goalkeeper has weaknesses, Kasper's strengths lie in his outstanding leadership, 1:1 rushing and incredible shot stopping (the graph your using has to be incorrect on this, I can think of so many games he kept us in). His distribution is risky, so can go wrong, but if goalkeepers distribution counted as assists for starting attacks he'd be well up there.

 

 

The long range efforts stat comes from the fact that we play deep and therefore teams resort to a lot of long range efforts to try and score. Hense Kasper experiences more and therefore, despite saving a lot, still ends up with a poor stat. Let's face it I can think of 4 or 5 worldies at least that no keeper is ever saving. The Man city one comes to mind immediately. 

 

I think these statistics charts are often total trash. The time it would take to trawl through game footage to actually do this reliably would seriously take longer than the days between each match. They are predictions at best.

Edited 13 July 2019 by Foxhateram

[Clever Fox]

I've never thought he was much better than average. His failure to command his area is his biggest flaw. This has lead to him not being poached by the big Clubs.

How many times did Morgan and Huth save him in games. The one area where he does excel is saves with his feet. I think he;s the best in the league with his feet.

Strangely the problem with the long range shots is that he doesn't shift his feet quickly enough and tends to dive from the center of the Goal Added to his lack of height for a GK.

How many times has he been targeted by opposition teams also

Then again he does have the Ear of the owners it seems, Which puts Rogers in a difficult place..

 

The little I've seen of Ward I think he is a better all round Keeper and can go on to be better with more game time. I wouldn't be surprised if this was Kaspers last season as first choice. He should be given more opportunities this season.

 

[sdkessler]

14 minutes ago, Foxhateram said:

Not this again!  Every goalkeeper has weaknesses, Kasper's strengths lie in his outstanding leadership, 1:1 rushing and incredible shot stopping (the graph your using has to be incorrect on this, I can think of so many games he kept us in). His distribution is risky, so can go wrong, but if goalkeepers distribution counted as assists for starting attacks he'd be well up there.

 

 

The long range efforts stat comes from the fact that we play deep and therefore teams resort to a lot of long range efforts to try and score. Hense Kasper experiences more and therefore, despite saving a lot, still ends up with a poor stat. Let's face it I can think of 4 or 5 worldies at least that no keeper is ever saving. The Man city one comes to mind immediately. 

 

I think these statistics charts are often total trash. The time it would take to trawl through game footage to actually do this reliably would seriously take longer than the days between each match. They are predictions at best.

The issue is that I'm using multiple reliable sources (Opta, Sky, Understat etc). I do agree with what you say, which is why I say that it's very interesting. Everyone seems to agree that he has good shot-stopping but the best shot-stopping stat, the expected goals conceded, show a completely opposite story.

 

Believe me when I tell you this. I don't think he's a bad shot stopper at all. I find these stats very surprising. I would think that he's one of the top keepers if I didn't know about these stats.

 

Also, they're not estimates. They literally hire people to go through every game counting the statistics. They also have computers that can track with AI computer vision technology. Opta claims to use stats from a few hundred thousand shots to develop their xG model. And yes, it's doable. I know some AI programming. It's definitely doable.

Edited 13 July 2019 by sdkessler
Added last paragraph

[cropstonfox]

Dont need these stats.I watch every game.We all know hes a flapper and at times a liability.We won the League despite him.Due to Vardy Riyhad kante Huth.supported by the rest.

Kasper does however provide extreme passion,leadership and stability.So yes we know hes not world class but hes our Flapper........

[STUHILL]

Can't argue with any of that really. He certainly has his flaws and in all honesty, we could probably find a more talented keeper.

 

He brings a lot more to the team and club than stats though and I think having such a strong personality and competitor at the club has been and will continue to be, incredibly important.

 

I actually think he is due a top season too, so I'm hopeful he will be at his best this coming season.

 

Excited to see more of Ward in the cup games too, now we will hopefully  be taking them more seriously!

 

[Monsell1976]

He is very over rated, and when you watch him every week, we all know his weakness, especially his commanding his area, and people rave about his kicking, it’s one of the most frustrating parts of his game, the amount of time he wasted possession is unbelievable at this level.

 

 All this said he’s not the best premier league keeper by far, just average, that’s why no big boys have tried taking him, but where we are at present he’s ok for us, but I would like ward to get a chance if he hits poor form, as in recent years he appears to be played every game no matter what, which in my eyes is not right.

[Guest ttfn]

Well I thought it was interesting.

 

Anecdotally I feel like we concede a lot of long-range goals which I’d suspect is what causes a lot of the variance. Whether this is Schmeichel’s fault or not I don’t know but the Optapro xGOT would suggest he’s not helping.

 

Obviously there’s much more to goalkeeping than stopping shots but it’s interesting that Kasper has a reputation as a great shot stopper and that doesn’t appear justified.

 

It would also be interesting to see his stats before and after Puel was sacked. Vardy’s xG per 90 mins weren’t starkly different between Puel and Rodgers but obviously his goalscoring picked up dramatically under Rodgers. Consciously or not he wasn’t finishing at his top level under Puel and I wonder if the same is true at the other end of the pitch for Schmeichel - whether the 2-3% you lose from your game simply by not liking/respecting your manager shows itself most in the big moments in games: chances for us or the opposition.

[fuchsntf]

36 minutes ago, sdkessler said:

The issue is that I'm using multiple reliable sources (Opta, Sky, Understat etc). I do agree with what you say, which is why I say that it's very interesting. Everyone seems to agree that he has good shot-stopping but the best shot-stopping stat, the expected goals conceded, show a completely opposite story.

 

Believe me when I tell you this. I don't think he's a bad shot stopper at all. I find these stats very surprising. I would think that he's one of the top keepers if I didn't know about these stats.

 

Also, they're not estimates. They literally hire people to go through every game counting the statistics. They also have computers that can track with AI computer vision technology. Opta claims to use stats from a few hundred thousand shots to develop their xG model. And yes, it's doable. I know some AI programming. It's definitely doable.

Stats..according to and how those points are calculated,depends on the accuracy ,the how and errors in that interpretation.

We should also have the Stats, on stats.

In the XG,how is the flattering or bounce of each individual shot measured,against speed, curve and spin ,or GK being partially or totally unsighted.

Plus the unseen deflection or ball bouncing in various weather conditions after the shot should be taken into account.

All stats are interesting to a point..but are also decieving when those variants are lazily or conveniently forgotten.

Plus to calculate all those stats,how many angles and speed ranges are taken into account..

 

[sdkessler]

2 minutes ago, ttfn said:

Well I thought it was interesting.

 

Anecdotally I feel like we concede a lot of long-range goals which I’d suspect is what causes a lot of the variance. Whether this is Schmeichel’s fault or not I don’t know but the Optapro xGOT would suggest he’s not helping.

 

Obviously there’s much more to goalkeeping than stopping shots but it’s interesting that Kasper has a reputation as a great shot stopper and that doesn’t appear justified.

 

It would also be interesting to see his stats before and after Puel was sacked. Vardy’s xG per 90 mins weren’t starkly different between Puel and Rodgers but obviously his goalscoring picked up dramatically under Rodgers. Consciously or not he wasn’t finishing at his top level under Puel and I wonder if the same is true at the other end of the pitch for Schmeichel - whether the 2-3% you lose from your game simply by not liking/respecting your manager shows itself most in the big moments in games: chances for us or the opposition.

If I'm not mistaken, Vardy's xG per 90 was very different between Puel and Rodgers? Ill need to check that. Unfortunately, I don't have access to the sweet sweet data and can only rely on the free stuff that's already out there. Same goes for Schmeichel's stats.

 

I'll try to see if I can get some data from Understat and get back to you.

[mozartfox]

Kasper is a legend and great keeper.   Not sure about these stats as all EPL keepers play with difference defenses in front of them.   A keeper with great defenders playing in front of him should have better numbers?  The number of red cards is also a variant as should be the coach.

 

Very interesting but not convincing (as with all statistics!).

[sdkessler]

4 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

Stats..according to and how those points are calculated,depends on the accuracy ,the how and errors in that interpretation.

We should also have the Stats, on stats.

In the XG,how is the flattering or bounce of each individual shot measured,against speed, curve and spin ,or GK being partially or totally unsighted.

Plus the unseen deflection or ball bouncing in various weather conditions after the shot should be taken into account.

All stats are interesting to a point..but are also decieving when those variants are lazily or conveniently forgotten.

Plus to calculate all those stats,how many angles and speed ranges are taken into account..

 

Correct. You're exactly right. That's why I've used multiple known sources and taken data over 3 seasons to try and minimize this variance. I don't have access to much data so this is the best I can do.

 

We will unfortunately never know how each company computers their xG as it is their secret so there's always a chance that it's incorrect. Different models also have slightly different results. However, they all suggest that Schmeichel is vastly underperforming his xG. It's unlikely for all of them to be wrong on this.