Kasper Schmeichel's Performance in Recent Years

[Charl91]

1 hour ago, StriderHiryu said:

Also so here’s a statistic for you. At the start of the 15/16 season Leicester City football club were 5000/1 to win the premier league. That’s less than a 1% chance. They won it by 10 points. 

 

Not much of a statistic though, because it's highly unlikely the odds were actually 5000/1, that's just what the bookies paid out based on people's betting history. You won't find any odds like 5000/1 again - bookies won't make that mistake twice.

The longest odds you can get now are Sheffield United at 2500/1, and I wouldn't say that they are as twice as likely to win it as we were.

[fuchsntf]

Amazes me that some have picked upon it,and actually imply in their posts,it's the way to go when buying,selecting or dropping a player...

Until now how many coaches stats have changed how a player plays...??

[Guest SO1]

5 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

Amazes me that some have picked upon it,and actually imply in their posts,it's the way to go when buying,selecting or dropping a player...

Until now how many coaches stats have changed how a player plays...??

We should ask Fulham FC how well it worked out for them. From hero to zero in one summer.

They went out and bought six or seven players based on stats without the managers consultation. At the end of the window.

Went through two managers and the rest is History. Balance. An expensive lesson.

Edited 13 July 2019 by SO1
format

[Stadt]

53 minutes ago, Mint23 said:

You could pull up facts about all of our starting 11 that would give us more goals scored, more chances created, more saves/block/tackles made if we were to get better players on all of those 11 positions but that would cost us the same as Man City have spent. 

Yeah you could but when the figures show that keepers like Fabianksi or Dubravka are net contributors and Schmeichel might be worse than average it's easier to improve. Realistically, there's only one outfield position that we could improve upon now and that's out wide, I'm not saying get rid of Kasper and I'm generally a fan of his but over the coming seasons if we can become a better side by replacing him then we should do it. If we wanted a better striker than Vardy or a better midfielder than Youri we'd have to spend £100m+ the difference with Kasper is that we could probably get the largest improvement for the lowest cost.

 

Schmeichel's trade off might be that he makes no obvious, completely glaring mistakes in a season but we might actually concede more but less obviously preventable goals. This is why we have an analytics team and they'll have access to more advanced metrics and be able to interpret them better than we can. However though I'm still happy with Kasper, he's a leader at the club and a legend; for a few seasons at least he's an adequate number one.

[Foxhateram]

5 hours ago, sdkessler said:

The issue is that I'm using multiple reliable sources (Opta, Sky, Understat etc). I do agree with what you say, which is why I say that it's very interesting. Everyone seems to agree that he has good shot-stopping but the best shot-stopping stat, the expected goals conceded, show a completely opposite story.

 

Believe me when I tell you this. I don't think he's a bad shot stopper at all. I find these stats very surprising. I would think that he's one of the top keepers if I didn't know about these stats.

 

Also, they're not estimates. They literally hire people to go through every game counting the statistics. They also have computers that can track with AI computer vision technology. Opta claims to use stats from a few hundred thousand shots to develop their xG model. And yes, it's doable. I know some AI programming. It's definitely doable.

I have a computer Science Degree so also know what I'm talking about. I'm not having a go, I'm just staying that it is genuinely impossible, even with a trained analyst at each game, to catch everything. I genuinely feel that if we watched back each game, the stats for shot stopping would definitely be higher than the source you have used (although I know they are reliable mostly). 

 

I just feel Kasper has got a bit a raw deal on here recently and I can't understand why. He is a key member of this squad, for both morale and performance. He drives our players, having been in and around the training ground I can't emphasise how important he is to the our team. 

 

Let's not also forget what he did for Vichai. Or tried to do at least. 

 

Up the Foxes!

 

 

[Mike Oxlong]

12 hours ago, sdkessler said:

Kasper Schmeichel is without a doubt a club legend. However, there's something I find really enigmatic about his performance. Most people say that he's a great goalkeeper and I think so too but statistically, he has been one of the poorest goalkeepers in the past 3 years in terms of shot-stopping. It is something that most don't seem to realise so I will try to just put out the stat that suggest this, his expected goals (xG) conceded.

 

First and foremost, what is xG? Here's a definition by Opta:

 

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.

Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.

 

It's much easier to explain with this short video from Opta for much better clarity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7zPZsLGK18

 

Now, the xG model differs slightly according to different data analytics companies so we will look at a few different ones to avoid any bias.

 

Understat

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

Understat is a great free online resource for xG stats in the EPL. Let's look at Leicester's xG conceded in the past 3 seasons:

 

2018/2019

Goals Conceded : 48

Expected Goals Conceded : 44.64

Difference : -3.36

 

2017/2018

Goals Conceded : 60

Expected Goals Conceded : 49.36

Difference : -10.64

 

2016/2017

Goals Conceded : 63

Expected Goals Conceded : 51.30

Difference : -11.70

 

Total difference : -25.7

 

This means that in the past 3 seasons, Leicester has conceded 25.7 more goals than we should have on average, based on the type of shots taken by the opponents. This isn't just being unlucky because it spans consistently over 3 seasons. This is also not an effect of defensive quality as good defending would reduce the expected goals conceded, not the difference. The difference is generally affected by shot quality and goalkeeping performance. However, I highly doubt that strikers have been so consistently overperforming and getting lucky against us over 3 seasons so this highly suggest a lack of shot-stopping quality by Leicester City. On the plus side, last season wasn't nearly as bad the previous 2.

 

Optapro Season Review 2018/2019

https://www.optasportspro.com/static/8-create-season-review.html

 

This is a great statistical review of last season just published by Opta. There's many great discussions that we can have from this (such as how Harvey Barnes has the best attacking build-up stat in the entire league) but we will just look at the goalkeeper stats for now:

 

 

So, what the heck do those stats mean?

 

 

xGOT is the best metric for shot-stopping because it takes into account the quality of the shot as well as the original xG of the shot as well. So, this means that Kasper conceded 48 goals whereas the average EPL goalkeeper would have only conceded 40.51 goals in his shoes. According to Opta's xGOT model, Kasper has conceded 7.49 goals more than the average goalkeeper would have in his shoes last season and his goal prevented rate is the 4th lowest in the league.

 

StrataBet

https://www.theringer.com/2018/2/23/17042808/soccer-david-de-gea-goalkeeper-manchester-united-jose-mourinho-premier-league

 

It was hard to find any data on the internet from this source but this was their xG2 model on the 2017/18 season (until Feb 2018). xG2 is similar to Opta's xGOT model where they take the quality of the shots into account:

 

 

 

Again, Leicester City nearly at the bottom of a list that measures goalkeeping ability. 

 

Sky Sports

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/11648752/which-premier-league-goalkeeper-should-claim-england-no-1-jersey

 

Earlier this year (March 2019), Sky Sports made some more interesting analysis on goalkeeping quality. There's many statistics here. Let's look at some of them:

 

 

 

The shot-stopping graph suggests Kasper is below average in shot-stopping abilities last season and the overall graph takes into account distribution quality and how they deal with crosses as well.

 

Conclusion

Kasper Schmeichel is viewed as a great goalkeeper in the eyes of many. However, the stats really suggest that he has been greatly underperforming in the past 3 seasons, especially when it comes to shot-stopping. I find it really interesting that it has gone under the radar for so long. Most of us believe that Schmeichel is a great shot-stopper but the stats seem to suggest otherwise. Now, I'm not trying to fuel any fight over Kasper Schmeichel. I'm not trying to undermine him. I'm just pointing out the most important stat that many people have overlooked and I think that it would be a massive factor in our top 6 push if the trend continues into the following season.

 

What do you guys think about this? Let's discuss and please be civil. If you have more sources on goalkeeping stats in the past few years, please post it. Thank you.

 

EDIT: Most people, including me, think that Schmeichel is a good shot-stopper without looking at any stats. However, the expected goals metrics from multiple reliable sources suggest otherwise. This is very interesting because it contradicts with what most of us believe, eventhough we watch him week in, week out. Before you say that the stats are wrong, they are all pretty reliable sources, are pretty accurate on most things and they all suggest the same thing. It is highly unlikely that all of them are wrong on this single matter.

Great work Danny. 

[Foxhateram]

3 hours ago, volpeazzurro said:

I don't think you can totally trash statistics as they are often used by many player recruitment teams like our own. If you remember,  they were notoriously used quite a while back by Steve Walsh and helped in the identification of a player such as Kante. 

 

Can such statistics be used and abused or simply misread?  I would think it possible but then you would also like to think that those that refer to them professionally now how to interpret them correctly. I do agree however that they in a way are a guide and there's no substitution for proper scouting which I'm sure is employed in tandem.

 

Schmeichel indeed does have some leadership qualities that on the surface appear reminiscent of his father. However his father was a far better goalkeeper and on occasions Caspar comes across more like a gobby lower league player when he rants at his defensive colleagues for a mistake that was of his own making. There's sometimes for me, more ego and showmanship in his rants than constructive leadership! 

 

I agree with you that he had made some absolute worldies, but the odd worldie here and there or great shot stop can't paper over the cracks of other deficiencies that are more likely to effect overall the course of a game or games over a season. And yes, I'm sure every goalkeeper has his weaknesses but since he got here, there doesn't appear to be any evidence of Caspar working on his.

If you know him as a person and see him on the training ground and at games before and after. You would see that his passion drives our players, they have huge respect for him. I don't think the way you interpret his leadership is seen the same way in the club at all. 

 

I can't disagree more regarding him not working on weaknesses. When he first arrived he had no control over his box, struggled in the air and his distribution was at times poor. I think he has changed all of those things into positive outcomes. People moan about his distribution but refuse to accept that risky outballs will lead to more negative results, but will also lead to more counter attacks achieved and those outballs are a huge part to the type of football we play. 

[Trav Le Bleu]

Lies.

 

Damned lies.

 

Statistics.

[Clever Fox]

1 hour ago, SO1 said:

We should ask Fulham FC how well it worked out for them. From hero to zero in one summer. They went out and bought six or seven players based on stats without the managers

consultation. At the end of the window. Went through two managers and the rest is History. Balance. An expensive lesson.

It just emphasizes again the importance of spending big for the right Manager. That's were success starts, as it did with Pearson for us.

[volpeazzurro]

52 minutes ago, Foxhateram said:

If you know him as a person and see him on the training ground and at games before and after. You would see that his passion drives our players, they have huge respect for him. I don't think the way you interpret his leadership is seen the same way in the club at all. 

 

I can't disagree more regarding him not working on weaknesses. When he first arrived he had no control over his box, struggled in the air and his distribution was at times poor. I think he has changed all of those things into positive outcomes. People moan about his distribution but refuse to accept that risky outballs will lead to more negative results, but will also lead to more counter attacks achieved and those outballs are a huge part to the type of football we play. 

In fairness I can't really comment on the first part and can only comment on what I believe I see on match days. If you are someone that has access to and goes down to the training ground regularly and has personal first hand knowledge of this then I bow to your better judgement.

 

Your second point is subjective and I personally have seen no improvement whatsoever which is not a problem, we just have differing views that's all. If in an attempt to to start a counter attack he slices or otherwise over-hits a ball and it goes out for a throw in somewhere in the opposition half, then although it technically gives possession away, no real harm is done I suppose (though sometimes there have been far better alternatives for a team trying to play a more possession type football). There are some games when this occurs a lot however. On a number of occasions though he's persisted with a half baked ball out into the centre of midfield, inside our own half, which has often gone straight to the opposition or put our own players immediately under pressure and led to an opposition attack, sometimes when he's even gesticulated for his own defence to move forward! Bizarre.

[Poznan34]

Statistics are just information...when big decisions need to be made (such as multi million pound transfers) it would be wrong not to take as much information as possible in, of which stats are one factor. Others factors include opinions of key people, video, live scouting, injury record, personal info...

 

Whenever stats are brought up on this forum, people rush to present the straw man that when stats are used, they are considered in isolation. That's just not how it works. 

 

Interestingly, Leicester City recently appointed a Head of Football Analytics on a six figure salary...so they must think they are of use! https://www.lcfc.com/news/900848/head-of-football-analytics

 

(re Kasper, we could probably do better but I don't think it's worth upsetting the apple cart with morale etc, he's a club legend)

[Stadt]

People are quick to point out the failures of stats in football but the opportunity cost of not using them is huge, so much cash wasted on shit signings that analytics helps to prevent. If a club has a coherent analytics strategy with recruitment and coaching it works wonders, Liverpool, Manchester City and Barcelona have some of the most advanced stats teams in the world. Liverpool's transfer strategy is mostly Michael Edwards work and their analytics and coaching have overhauled them from a good side to one of the best in the world.

[Guest SO1]

46 minutes ago, Clever Fox said:

It just emphasizes again the importance of spending big for the right Manager. That's were success starts, as it did with Pearson for us.

Yes . But most important for me is everyone in the club pulling together with the same philosophy. From the groundskeeper to the development staff all the way to the owners.

One big ball of energy moving in the Same Direction. We can move mountains and overcome all kinds of obstacles. Everybody and everything matters. Spiritual. The Force.

[Guest SO1]

47 minutes ago, Stadt said:

People are quick to point out the failures of stats in football but the opportunity cost of not using them is huge, so much cash wasted on shit signings that analytics helps to prevent. If a club has a coherent analytics strategy with recruitment and coaching it works wonders, Liverpool, Manchester City and Barcelona have some of the most advanced stats teams in the world. Liverpool's transfer strategy is mostly Michael Edwards work and their analytics and coaching have overhauled them from a good side to one of the best in the world.

I think that Liverpool have learned their lessons when it comes to transfer strategies.

Going all in for stats at the beginning before finding a happy medium with stats, scouting, resale value, and human instincts. Since FSG and Edwards went to work for them things have hardly been straightforward. It takes time to put together an appropriate system that works as every team has different needs and limitations.

What I've seen here, since Rodgers was hired, instills me with great confidence. We seem to be getting the right balance.

Edited 13 July 2019 by SO1

[M0901]

There's no-one else id rather have inbetween the sticks than Kasper. If you took any other goalkeeper in the league and put them in net it wouldn't make THAT much of a difference. He's been an admirable signing and for the £2m we paid I'm willing to look past some meaningless stats. 

[Guest SO1]

1 hour ago, Clever Fox said:

It just emphasizes again the importance of spending big for the right Manager. That's were success starts, as it did with Pearson for us.

Really hope Pearson gets another quality opportunity after what he did here. I'm curious. Like to watch managers build.

[Charl91]

1 hour ago, M0901 said:

There's no-one else id rather have inbetween the sticks than Kasper. If you took any other goalkeeper in the league and put them in net it wouldn't make THAT much of a difference. He's been an admirable signing and for the £2m we paid I'm willing to look past some meaningless stats. 

I wouldn't say they're necessarily meaningless.

 

I do agree that I certainly wouldn't replace Kasper. He's a good player, a great servant to the club, and he's a leader on and off the pitch. It does highlight that maybe we might have a tendency to over-rate his abilities with our blue-tinted specs though.

[Out Foxed]

Kasper Schmeichel is viewed as a great goalkeeper in the eyes of many. However, the stats really suggest that he has been greatly underperforming in the past 3 seasons, especially when it comes to shot-stopping. I find it really interesting that it has gone under the radar for so long. Most of us believe that Schmeichel is a great shot-stopper but the stats seem to suggest otherwise. Now, I'm not trying to fuel any fight over Kasper Schmeichel. I'm not trying to undermine him. I'm just pointing out the most important stat that many people have overlooked and I think that it would be a massive factor in our top 6 push if the trend continues into the following season.

 

anyone with a clue knows he's been a weak link on purely footballing terms

[Beliall]

i suppose its just a coincidence that he started seeing and conceding more shots when kante left?

[Nicolo Barella]

10 minutes ago, Beliall said:

i suppose its just a coincidence that he started seeing and conceding more shots when kante left?

It's not, but I don't think that's the point - as OP points out in the original article, despite obviously seeing more shots, he still concedes more than he should. 

[Corky]

My biggest concern with him is the amount of shots he parries into the net, getting good hands to the ball yet still conceding.

[foxfanazer]

Recently had an argument with some Everton fans on their forum about who was better put of Kasper and Pickford. For me it was clearly Schmeics but I was surprised just how adamant their were that Pickford was better. Am I missing something about him? Seems to make far more mistakes than our number 1?

 

They used a stat that he saved more penalties than Kasper last season. Is that how we judge keepers nowadays? 

Edited 13 July 2019 by foxfanazer

[Nod.E]

Think we can all agree that his performances last season were a vast improvement on the previous two. That's something that people can recognise in the stats and point towards some correlation between the stats and observed performances.

 

I'm one of his biggest fans just in terms of his character, what we've achieved with him in the sticks and some of the game changing moments he can produce, but even I was beginning to question whether we could do better in 17/18.

 

As long as he stays at last season's level I don't think we have anything to be worried about.

[BoyJones]

20 hours ago, sdkessler said:

Kasper Schmeichel is without a doubt a club legend. However, there's something I find really enigmatic about his performance. Most people say that he's a great goalkeeper and I think so too but statistically, he has been one of the poorest goalkeepers in the past 3 years in terms of shot-stopping. It is something that most don't seem to realise so I will try to just put out the stat that suggest this, his expected goals (xG) conceded.

 

First and foremost, what is xG? Here's a definition by Opta:

 

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.

Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.

 

It's much easier to explain with this short video from Opta for much better clarity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7zPZsLGK18

 

Now, the xG model differs slightly according to different data analytics companies so we will look at a few different ones to avoid any bias.

 

Understat

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

Understat is a great free online resource for xG stats in the EPL. Let's look at Leicester's xG conceded in the past 3 seasons:

 

2018/2019

Goals Conceded : 48

Expected Goals Conceded : 44.64

Difference : -3.36

 

2017/2018

Goals Conceded : 60

Expected Goals Conceded : 49.36

Difference : -10.64

 

2016/2017

Goals Conceded : 63

Expected Goals Conceded : 51.30

Difference : -11.70

 

Total difference : -25.7

 

This means that in the past 3 seasons, Leicester has conceded 25.7 more goals than we should have on average, based on the type of shots taken by the opponents. This isn't just being unlucky because it spans consistently over 3 seasons. This is also not an effect of defensive quality as good defending would reduce the expected goals conceded, not the difference. The difference is generally affected by shot quality and goalkeeping performance. However, I highly doubt that strikers have been so consistently overperforming and getting lucky against us over 3 seasons so this highly suggest a lack of shot-stopping quality by Leicester City. On the plus side, last season wasn't nearly as bad the previous 2.

 

Optapro Season Review 2018/2019

https://www.optasportspro.com/static/8-create-season-review.html

 

This is a great statistical review of last season just published by Opta. There's many great discussions that we can have from this (such as how Harvey Barnes has the best attacking build-up stat in the entire league) but we will just look at the goalkeeper stats for now:

 

 

So, what the heck do those stats mean?

 

 

xGOT is the best metric for shot-stopping because it takes into account the quality of the shot as well as the original xG of the shot as well. So, this means that Kasper conceded 48 goals whereas the average EPL goalkeeper would have only conceded 40.51 goals in his shoes. According to Opta's xGOT model, Kasper has conceded 7.49 goals more than the average goalkeeper would have in his shoes last season and his goal prevented rate is the 4th lowest in the league.

 

StrataBet

https://www.theringer.com/2018/2/23/17042808/soccer-david-de-gea-goalkeeper-manchester-united-jose-mourinho-premier-league

 

It was hard to find any data on the internet from this source but this was their xG2 model on the 2017/18 season (until Feb 2018). xG2 is similar to Opta's xGOT model where they take the quality of the shots into account:

 

 

 

Again, Leicester City nearly at the bottom of a list that measures goalkeeping ability. 

 

Sky Sports

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/11648752/which-premier-league-goalkeeper-should-claim-england-no-1-jersey

 

Earlier this year (March 2019), Sky Sports made some more interesting analysis on goalkeeping quality. There's many statistics here. Let's look at some of them:

 

 

 

The shot-stopping graph suggests Kasper is below average in shot-stopping abilities last season and the overall graph takes into account distribution quality and how they deal with crosses as well.

 

Conclusion

Kasper Schmeichel is viewed as a great goalkeeper in the eyes of many. However, the stats really suggest that he has been greatly underperforming in the past 3 seasons, especially when it comes to shot-stopping. I find it really interesting that it has gone under the radar for so long. Most of us believe that Schmeichel is a great shot-stopper but the stats seem to suggest otherwise. Now, I'm not trying to fuel any fight over Kasper Schmeichel. I'm not trying to undermine him. I'm just pointing out the most important stat that many people have overlooked and I think that it would be a massive factor in our top 6 push if the trend continues into the following season.

 

What do you guys think about this? Let's discuss and please be civil. If you have more sources on goalkeeping stats in the past few years, please post it. Thank you.

 

EDIT: Most people, including me, think that Schmeichel is a good shot-stopper without looking at any stats. However, the expected goals metrics from multiple reliable sources suggest otherwise. This is very interesting because it contradicts with what most of us believe, eventhough we watch him week in, week out. Before you say that the stats are wrong, they are all pretty reliable sources, are pretty accurate on most things and they all suggest the same thing. It is highly unlikely that all of them are wrong on this single matter.

Probably the worst post I've never read. The Manx keeper made loads of cock ups last season, but the "stats" show he is streets ahead of Kasper!! 

 

BR understands football, unlike many of our posters. He will look at many other more stats than those posted by so called experts. If he is happy to play KS, then I trust his judgment. Obviously, I am old school, but the only stat that matters is points on the board, not if somebody meets subjective criteria set by people trying to be clever. 

[Clever Fox]

5 hours ago, SO1 said:

Really hope Pearson gets another quality opportunity after what he did here. I'm curious. Like to watch managers build.

Pearson really is one of the best out there at building a club in the right way, thats were he excels. Championship Clubs are foolish not to give him a job.

 

Great credit has to go to our Owners for bringing him back and trusting in him. The one area  he's not so good at is the Coaching side, But thats alright you can always hire a top Coach to work with him. Sir Alex wasn't very good at Coaching either and he didn't do too bad.