Kasper Schmeichel's Performance in Recent Years

[don_danbury]

one of the best GKs in the league. sod stats

[KingsX]

On 12/07/2019 at 23:14, Swan Lesta said:

Is their some kind of opta metric available to gauge patronising writing styles?

 

I didn’t read it as patronizing.  Just a guy walking on eggshells because he knew he was going to get hammered by the “stats are crap” crowd, who would rather shout down any input contrary to their views.  (And was predictably right to expect it.)

 

Advanced stats aren’t crap when different versions are so consistent, over a few full seasons of game data.  Nor are they the last word -- they need corroborated by professional eyes.  Not the same as the eyes of fans watch who watch some of the games, remember a few plays from each, and insist their selective memory is the last word.

 

Our analytics have been widely acknowledged to be up there (or ahead of) with the big boys since Pearson.  A huge part of how we closed the gap.

 

Those arguing Kasper’s value is also based on leadership (and not just between the sticks) 

Those on their " **** stats, I only need what I see with my two eyes" jag, try that opinion with your favorite City manager,  if you meet him 

 

[Bert]

Goalkeepers in conceding goals shocker. 

[Guest TaggertvsWise]

On 13/07/2019 at 23:15, don_danbury said:

one of the best GKs in the league. sod stats

Clicked on this thread out of curiousity, saw this post first and, regardless of the thread I couldn’t agree more with this statement. 

[HighPeakFox]

Very interesting stats, for sure. They tell a truth, but perhaps not always THE truth. 

[Aus Fox]

On 13/07/2019 at 13:16, sdkessler said:

That's the point I'm trying to make. It seems that he's doing pretty well and most people believe that he's one of the best but statistically, he's been doing poorly. I find this rather strange. If I hadn't seen these stats, I wouldn't have thought that he has been doing nearly as poorly as he has been. My hypothesis is that he does well when he's in the spotlight and in big games (Champion's League and World Cup for example) but rather poorly for most of the season.

 

[Lesta2014]

Can have all the stats you want but how many of them goals were his errors or realistically he could of saved? I can’t think of many?? 

[Stoopid]

I think Kasper's a good example of the adage - so highly regarded these days that it's become a total cliché of modern times - that if you want something enough and are willing to work hard enough to get it, you can achieve it.

This is supposed to be an admirable quality - and maybe it is - but it often leads to desire and commitment taking precedence over natural ability.

Just saying.

[Guest TaggertvsWise]

2 hours ago, HighPeakFox said:

Very interesting stats, for sure. They tell a truth, but perhaps not always THE truth. 

Stats are meaningless without context, someone tried to clumsily compare Maguire’s stats to Dunk’s the other day. 2 players in markedly different teams. They have their place but most of the time are twisted to suit and thrown about to support someone’s often mislaid opinion.

[fleckneymike]

Goalkeeper metrics and data is still a huge area of contention in the stats world with most people still trying to agree what precisely they’re measuring and why

 

https://statsbomb.com/2018/12/introducing-goalkeeper-radars/

[moore_94]

 

[foxfanazer]

Just never lets us down

[Corky]

Must've saved a very decent amount of penalties since joining us.

[Lambert09]

We are so lucky that weve not had to worry about this position for so long. 

 

Genuinely think his best seasons were the first 2 in the championship though, I remember on a regular basis wondering how the hell he'd managed to keep things out. I forget how good he is sometimes, then he makes saves like the one against Copenhagen or Sheffield United and you just have to admire how good he can be. 

 

After a few beers its quite common for me to tell people "he'd be better than his dad if he was a few inches taller" anyone else catch themselves doing this? 

[urban fox]

this is a bit of a difficult one. Obviously a keeper with a poor defence is going to have to save more shots and is still likely to concede more than one with a very good defence.  a keeper may only make one save in a game that could be world class  but have nothing else to do. similarly, they could make several relatively easy saves but concede an unstoppable shot. which is the better keeper? it is not unknown for a keeper to have a really good penalty save success rate but otherwise have poor positioning say and let in goals that others would easily save. Every keeper with make the odd mistake, sometimes their defence will cover for them, other times they will concede.

It is easier with strike rates for an outfield player percentage of shots on target for example.

 

Ultimately, whilst stats can paint a picture, you have to base a judgement on overall performance watching every aspect.  How does he command his area/organise his defence, positioning for set pieces, unforced errors, distribution, overall handling and shot stopping. does he have the confidence of his team mates (never to be underrated - playing as a defender I always played better myself when I had a keeper I had confidence in behind me, the less worried you are about making a mistake the less you actually make)

 

Overall I think we have an above average keeper in Kasper and would be far worse off without him.

[HybridFox]

Whatever anyone says he's stepped up to the plate on the biggest stages and has forged a name for himself outside of his father's shadow. While he has his flaws, he deserves a lot of credit and we are lucky to have him.

 

He'll join the illustrious list of great keepers this club has had.

[Toddybad]

I think the Kasper question is really, really interesting.

 

There's no doubt that he's a club legend. He's also got leadership skills and you can tell listening to him talk that he's highly intelligent compared to most footballers.

 

The stats presented by the OP don't surprise me though.

 

As a goalkeeper he has strengths and weaknesses. 

 

He pulls off important saves at important times. You can argue that there is luck involved in that but I'm not sure.... somehow in big moments he steps it up.

 

Penalties - I think he's incredible at penalties. Even when he has gone through runs of not saving any he's guessed the right way and got glove on ball.

 

Crosses - he's basically a vampire when it comes to crosses. Because he's relatively small for a gk (I actually don't know if he is but I've always thought of him this way) he doesn't seem to come for crosses much. I'm not sure modern goalkeepers do in general the way they used to though.

 

Kicking. Really difficult here. He has a huge kick. Huge. He can also play some really nice passed balls out. But every time he plays out low into Wilf I crap my pants. 

 

I love him. He's been amazing for us. I'd be happy if he stayed until retirement. Yet at the same time I have a nagging feeling that after a back up striker and new wide player, he might actually be next in line for replacement. I'm just not sure if that's actually possible though. 

[ARM1968]

Can’t actually believe he’s still here if I’m honest. Do a job at any top club. We’re lucky to have him and I hope he stays around forever. Guy is genuine and genuinely a legend in my eyes. 

[Swiss_tony]

He's a great shot stopper, and has great reactions.

His kick outs vary from the sublime to the awful.

[Matt_Lcfc]

Kasper is a great keeper. His shot stopping is some of the best in the league. As others have said, his kicking does let him down, and his ability to catch crosses. These attributes have stopped him from becoming world class.

However, what a down to earth, intelligent, humble bloke he is. We are so lucky to have him at the club and we should feel fortunate that he is our number 1 

[HitchinFox]

On 13/07/2019 at 01:45, sdkessler said:

Kasper Schmeichel is without a doubt a club legend. However, there's something I find really enigmatic about his performance. Most people say that he's a great goalkeeper and I think so too but statistically, he has been one of the poorest goalkeepers in the past 3 years in terms of shot-stopping. It is something that most don't seem to realise so I will try to just put out the stat that suggest this, his expected goals (xG) conceded.

 

First and foremost, what is xG? Here's a definition by Opta:

 

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.

Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.

 

It's much easier to explain with this short video from Opta for much better clarity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7zPZsLGK18

 

Now, the xG model differs slightly according to different data analytics companies so we will look at a few different ones to avoid any bias.

 

Understat

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

Understat is a great free online resource for xG stats in the EPL. Let's look at Leicester's xG conceded in the past 3 seasons:

 

2018/2019

Goals Conceded : 48

Expected Goals Conceded : 44.64

Difference : -3.36

 

2017/2018

Goals Conceded : 60

Expected Goals Conceded : 49.36

Difference : -10.64

 

2016/2017

Goals Conceded : 63

Expected Goals Conceded : 51.30

Difference : -11.70

 

Total difference : -25.7

 

This means that in the past 3 seasons, Leicester has conceded 25.7 more goals than we should have on average, based on the type of shots taken by the opponents. This isn't just being unlucky because it spans consistently over 3 seasons. This is also not an effect of defensive quality as good defending would reduce the expected goals conceded, not the difference. The difference is generally affected by shot quality and goalkeeping performance. However, I highly doubt that strikers have been so consistently overperforming and getting lucky against us over 3 seasons so this highly suggest a lack of shot-stopping quality by Leicester City. On the plus side, last season wasn't nearly as bad the previous 2.

 

Optapro Season Review 2018/2019

https://www.optasportspro.com/static/8-create-season-review.html

 

This is a great statistical review of last season just published by Opta. There's many great discussions that we can have from this (such as how Harvey Barnes has the best attacking build-up stat in the entire league) but we will just look at the goalkeeper stats for now:

 

 

So, what the heck do those stats mean?

 

 

 

xGOT is the best metric for shot-stopping because it takes into account the quality of the shot as well as the original xG of the shot as well. So, this means that Kasper conceded 48 goals whereas the average EPL goalkeeper would have only conceded 40.51 goals in his shoes. According to Opta's xGOT model, Kasper has conceded 7.49 goals more than the average goalkeeper would have in his shoes last season and his goal prevented rate is the 4th lowest in the league.

 

StrataBet

https://www.theringer.com/2018/2/23/17042808/soccer-david-de-gea-goalkeeper-manchester-united-jose-mourinho-premier-league

 

It was hard to find any data on the internet from this source but this was their xG2 model on the 2017/18 season (until Feb 2018). xG2 is similar to Opta's xGOT model where they take the quality of the shots into account:

 

 

 

 

 

Again, Leicester City nearly at the bottom of a list that measures goalkeeping ability. 

 

Sky Sports

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/11648752/which-premier-league-goalkeeper-should-claim-england-no-1-jersey

 

Earlier this year (March 2019), Sky Sports made some more interesting analysis on goalkeeping quality. There's many statistics here. Let's look at some of them:

 

 

The shot-stopping graph suggests Kasper is below average in shot-stopping abilities last season and the overall graph takes into account distribution quality and how they deal with crosses as well.

 

Conclusion

Kasper Schmeichel is viewed as a great goalkeeper in the eyes of many. However, the stats really suggest that he has been greatly underperforming in the past 3 seasons, especially when it comes to shot-stopping. I find it really interesting that it has gone under the radar for so long. Most of us believe that Schmeichel is a great shot-stopper but the stats seem to suggest otherwise. Now, I'm not trying to fuel any fight over Kasper Schmeichel. I'm not trying to undermine him. I'm just pointing out the most important stat that many people have overlooked and I think that it would be a massive factor in our top 6 push if the trend continues into the following season.

 

What do you guys think about this? Let's discuss and please be civil. If you have more sources on goalkeeping stats in the past few years, please post it. Thank you.

 

EDIT: Most people, including me, think that Schmeichel is a good shot-stopper without looking at any stats. However, the expected goals metrics from multiple reliable sources suggest otherwise. This is very interesting because it contradicts with what most of us believe, eventhough we watch him week in, week out. Before you say that the stats are wrong, they are all pretty reliable sources, are pretty accurate on most things and they all suggest the same thing. It is highly unlikely that all of them are wrong on this single matter.

 

I've always found stats fascinating. Part of my job is to analyse stats (nothing to do with football, mind). 

As this is probably exactly the kind of stuff that big clubs now look at when deciding on who to chase on the transfer market, I think the biggest effect you can glean from these particular stats is that they have made Kasper look much worse than he is.

 

In other words, it might have put clubs off – and as a result they've left him alone and we've got to keep him. 

Long live sports stats and the stattos who produce them, without ever watching a game live. 

 

 

[Aus Fox]

9 hours ago, Toddybad said:

 

Penalties - I think he's incredible at penalties. Even when he has gone through runs of not saving any he's guessed the right way and got glove on ball.

 

No guessing involved, Kasper is a methodical professional with a desire to be the best. He would I’m sure do his homework on every penalty taker he comes across in order to know the odds on what they might do, this going in with a prepared advantage.

[Guest Cujek]

Just goes to show you can't bring everything down to stats, this is football, not baseball or basketball or any other terrible American sport. 

 

Football is about emotion and opinions and shouting not a load stats. 

 

 

[Captain...]

A few points on xG stats and Kasper.

 

XG is an interesting concept but wildly inaccurate, you can't place accurate quantifiable values on something with as many variables as shots. Big pinch of salt needs to be taken.

 

Did Kasper underperform under Puel? Possibly but those stats will be skewed by the number of long rangers that we conceded which was largely down to letting talented players like Sigurdsson Milivojovic have shots unchallenged from distance. The lack of pressure on that area of the pitch was criminal at times, Ndidi and Mendy under instruction defended the edge of our area giving more space for long range pot shots and were extra bodies for Kasper to see through.

 

Second point in Kasper under Puel, often we had a lot of possession but no penetration meaning Kasper had little to do but watch us pass it sideways meaning he wasn't in the game saving lots of shots so when he did need to make a save he wasn't 100% sharp. Not really a criticism or defence just an observation.

[gerrytaggart]

I have never conceded a single goal in any of the top 4 divisions. 

 

STATS.