The Politics Thread 2019

[BlueSi13]

13 hours ago, Buce said:

 

No, you're not right.

 

If Johnson receives a vote of no confidence, there is a fourteen day period during which another government can be formed if a majority is found.

 

 

It wouldn't be 'ushering in a marxist govt' - it would be a temporary government that would have one purpose, that is to extend article 50 long enough to enable an election to take place.

True, but I still believe that even if there was someone with enough support to form a government, the Prime Minister can STILL refuse to resign and instead call for a General Election which would take place after the 31st.  Indeed Dominic Cummings has hinted at such a possibility.

 

 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/world/europe/brexit-constitution-johnson-queen.html

 

As for the HOC choosing a candidate to actually rally around, so far the Labour high command has made it pretty clear that they won't back anyone who isn't Corbyn and it's very likely Corbyn won't be able to get a majority in the HOC.  

 

I, like the VAST VAST VAST majority of leavers, hope for a sensible deal come the 31st but it's out of the governments hands now IMO.  The current deal isn't getting through parliament and so far the EU are unwilling to reopen negotiations.  Therefore this equals stalemate with the clock ticking.

 

May I ask why those in the remain camp aren't pressuring the EU if they really want to avoid no deal?

[BlueSi13]

6 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I think Johnson is bluffing.

 

He doesn't want no deal, nor even brexit, any more than the Dominic Grieves & co. He's a careerist. Not a brexiteer.

 

I'm wagering that, he'll wriggle out of it by 'nobly' saying he respects the will of parliament and will put an article 50 extension to a vote - and then feebly canvas for a rejection of the extension...

If he does that it's the end of the Conservatives for a generation with the Brexit Party perfectly placed behind them to utterly devastate them in any subsequent GE.  

 

Look what happened in Brecon and Radnorshire, what would have been a comfortable Conservative hold ended in a loss thanks to the 10% of the vote that went to the Brexit Party, that was even after the Johnson bounce in the polls.

 

[Buce]

30 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

True, but I still believe that even if there was someone with enough support to form a government, the Prime Minister can STILL refuse to resign and instead call for a General Election which would take place after the 31st.  Indeed Dominic Cummings has hinted at such a possibility.

 

 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/world/europe/brexit-constitution-johnson-queen.html

 

As for the HOC choosing a candidate to actually rally around, so far the Labour high command has made it pretty clear that they won't back anyone who isn't Corbyn and it's very likely Corbyn won't be able to get a majority in the HOC.  

 

I, like the VAST VAST VAST majority of leavers, hope for a sensible deal come the 31st but it's out of the governments hands now IMO.  The current deal isn't getting through parliament and so far the EU are unwilling to reopen negotiations.  Therefore this equals stalemate with the clock ticking.

 

May I ask why those in the remain camp aren't pressuring the EU if they really want to avoid no deal?

 

No, you’re wrong. If any other party or coalition can garner enough votes within fourteen days, they will become the government. Read today’s news regarding who should lead that hypothetical govt. 

 

It’s Bozo who has set preconditions for talks, not the EU. He refuses to talk unless they remove the Irish backstop. 

[Paninistickers]

27 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

If he does that it's the end of the Conservatives for a generation with the Brexit Party perfectly placed behind them to utterly devastate them in any subsequent GE.  

 

Look what happened in Brecon and Radnorshire, what would have been a comfortable Conservative hold ended in a loss thanks to the 10% of the vote that went to the Brexit Party, that was even after the Johnson bounce in the polls.

 

It's one of those situations where there isn't a way out.

 

Postpone brexit and face electoral disaster....or gamble the entire economy plus the union of GB & NI on a.point of principle and guesswork. Either option is unpalatable. There's no way out for the tories (well the only realistic way out was the WA...which, of course, is only temporary)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Guvnor]

14 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I think Johnson is bluffing.

 

He doesn't want no deal, nor even brexit, any more than the Dominic Grieves & co. He's a careerist. Not a brexiteer.

 

I'm wagering that, he'll wriggle out of it by 'nobly' saying he respects the will of parliament and will put an article 50 extension to a vote - and then feebly canvas for a rejection of the extension...

I really don't think so.

Electing Boris was looking to the future 'post brexit'.

The strategy is simple, leave the EU by 31st Oct.

This then get's Farage out of the way, get's the disgruntled leavers back on board, so even if a GE is called it comes after we have left, and with the Labour Party sinking faster than the Titanic with Captain calamity Corbyn at the helm a good chance the Tories win with a majority.

The fly in the ointment is obviously Hammond and his cronies, along with Bercow who will be up to the 'Witching Hour' trying to concoct some spurious legislation which they hope will prevent Boris from leaving the EU.

And incidentally all the posters crowing about Parliamentary sovereignty, that was to take back control of British Sovereignty, bit of a clue there 'Take Back' ie post Brexit.

 

[BlueSi13]

32 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

No, you’re wrong. If any other party or coalition can garner enough votes within fourteen days, they will become the government. Read today’s news regarding who should lead that hypothetical govt. 

 

It’s Bozo who has set preconditions for talks, not the EU. He refuses to talk unless they remove the Irish backstop. 

Sorry but I don't believe that's correct

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-to-defy-any-vote-of-no-confidence-s28ksnhzm

"Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s most senior aide, told colleagues last week that Mr Johnson would not quit if Tory Remainers voted with Labour to bring down the government.

The Times has been told that Mr Johnson could stay on as prime minister even if Tory MPs were able to form a “government of national unity” opposed to a no-deal Brexit. Mr Johnson would ignore the result of the confidence vote and call a “people v politicians” general election to be held shortly after Britain had left the EU.

Ministers said that there was an emphasis on “getting stuff out the door” by bringing forward policy announcements before a possible election this year.

Constitutional experts confirmed yesterday that Mr Johnson would technically be under no legal obligation to quit if he lost a confidence vote. They warned that it risked the Queen being “dragged into politics” and put in the “invidious position” of facing calls to remove the prime minister herself.

Tory Remainers have conceded that there is no “absolutely foolproof” parliamentary mechanism to stop a no-deal Brexit."

[BlueSi13]

27 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

I really don't think so.

Electing Boris was looking to the future 'post brexit'.

The strategy is simple, leave the EU by 31st Oct.

This then get's Farage out of the way, get's the disgruntled leavers back on board, so even if a GE is called it comes after we have left, and with the Labour Party sinking faster than the Titanic with Captain calamity Corbyn at the helm a good chance the Tories win with a majority.

The fly in the ointment is obviously Hammond and his cronies, along with Bercow who will be up to the 'Witching Hour' trying to concoct some spurious legislation which they hope will prevent Boris from leaving the EU.

And incidentally all the posters crowing about Parliamentary sovereignty, that was to take back control of British Sovereignty, bit of a clue there 'Take Back' ie post Brexit.

 

Completely agree.  Take a look at the latest polling aggregate:

 

CON: 29%

LAB: 25%

LDEM: 18%

BREX: 16%

GRN: 6%

Johnson will be very keen to get Brexit out the way based on those numbers.  If he can scoop up that 16% from the Brexit Party he will be looking at a landslide victory.

[Paninistickers]

10 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Completely agree.  Take a look at the latest polling aggregate:

 

CON: 29%

LAB: 25%

LDEM: 18%

BREX: 16%

GRN: 6%

Johnson will be very keen to get Brexit out the way based on those numbers.  If he can scoop up that 16% from the Brexit Party he will be looking at a landslide victory.

Agree. But you are assuming a centralist, socially liberal Tory (for that's what he is) to gamble the health of the UK economy for the next 10-45 years and an almost certain reunification of Ireland and Scottish independence in that same period....all for a 5 year term.

 

It's not in the conservative nature to take such a gamble.

 

He's bluffing.

[The Guvnor]

6 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Agree. But you are assuming a centralist, socially liberal Tory (for that's what he is) to gamble the health of the UK economy for the next 10-45 years and an almost certain reunification of Ireland and Scottish independence in that same period....all for a 5 year term.

 

It's not in the conservative nature to take such a gamble.

 

He's bluffing.

I would not argue that it's a gamble, but as many would argue it to be a reckless fools journey, conversely it could be the best decision we have ever made.10-45 years incidentally is an extremely large parameter and with the rest of your quote is pure speculation.

[Paninistickers]

1 minute ago, The Guvnor said:

I would not argue that it's a gamble, but as many would argue it to be a reckless fools journey, conversely it could be the best decision we have ever made.10-45 years incidentally is an extremely large parameter and with the rest of your quote is pure speculation.

Even the most supportive of brexiteers expect a rough decade after brexit...which you could argue is worth the pain.

 

Other doomsday, remain leaning economists have predicted 40-50 years of turbulence

 

So I used the parameter to be fair.

 

The Irish and Scottish issues are of course speculation .... But still something that he has to realistically factor in

[Buce]

43 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Sorry but I don't believe that's correct

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-to-defy-any-vote-of-no-confidence-s28ksnhzm

"Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s most senior aide, told colleagues last week that Mr Johnson would not quit if Tory Remainers voted with Labour to bring down the government.

The Times has been told that Mr Johnson could stay on as prime minister even if Tory MPs were able to form a “government of national unity” opposed to a no-deal Brexit. Mr Johnson would ignore the result of the confidence vote and call a “people v politicians” general election to be held shortly after Britain had left the EU.

Ministers said that there was an emphasis on “getting stuff out the door” by bringing forward policy announcements before a possible election this year.

Constitutional experts confirmed yesterday that Mr Johnson would technically be under no legal obligation to quit if he lost a confidence vote. They warned that it risked the Queen being “dragged into politics” and put in the “invidious position” of facing calls to remove the prime minister herself.

Tory Remainers have conceded that there is no “absolutely foolproof” parliamentary mechanism to stop a no-deal Brexit."

 

Motions of no confidence in the United Kingdom

 

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In the United Kingdom, confidence motions are a means of testing the support of the government (executive) in a legislative body, and for the legislature to remove the government from office. A confidence motion may take the form of either a vote of confidence, usually put forward by the government, or a vote of no confidence (or censure motion^[1]), usually proposed by the opposition. When such a motion is put to a vote in the legislature, if a vote of confidence is defeated, or a vote of no confidence is passed, then the incumbent government must resign, or call a general election.^[2]

It is a fundamental principle of the British constitution that the government must retain the confidence of the legislature, as it is not possible for a government to operate effectively without the support of the majority of the people's representatives.^[3] At the national level, this means that the UK government (the cabinet) must retain the confidence of a majority in the House of Commons.

It is possible for a vote of no confidence to succeed where there is a minority government or a small majority, or where there are internal party splits leading to some members of the ruling party voting against its leaders. Where there is a minority government, the government may seek agreements or pacts with other parties in order to prevail in the vote and remain in office.

Despite their importance to the British constitution, for a long time the rules surrounding motions of no confidence were dictated solely by convention. However, since the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, a vote of no confidence must be passed in a specific form in order to create the possibility of an early general election. Under the Act, if a motion of no confidence in the government is passed in express terms, the house must then adopt a vote of confidence in that same or an alternative government within 14 days, or a general election is held.

A no confidence vote was last successfully used on 28 March 1979, when the minority government of James Callaghan was defeated in a confidence motion which read "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government".^[4] A no confidence vote can have the effect of uniting the ruling party; for this reason such motions are rarely used and successful motions are even rarer.^[5] Before 1979 the last successful motion of no confidence occurred in 1924.^[6] The most recent confidence vote instigated by the opposition was held in January 2019, with the government prevailing.^[7]

Defeat of a motion of no-confidence (or winning a vote of confidence) does not provide protection to the government in power for any specific length of time. MPs from any political party may propose another vote immediately, although are unlikely to do so due to convention and potential weakening of their own standing.^[8]

[WigstonWanderer]

This is all so sad. If/when the UK crashes out of the EU, I’d expect that after a period of disruption, things will settle down but there will be a long slide down hill economically as Britain becomes nothing more than a dispensable satellite to the US, clinging to them desperately in a dangerous world of diminishing resources and declining environmental standards.

 

Can’t really see how this can be avoided now as the parliamentary bickering of remainers will ensure that they won’t be able to scupper the project.

Edited 16 August 2019 by WigstonWanderer

[bovril]

Boris isn't bluffing. Forcing through a hard Brexit is akin to enforcing sanctions on yourself. But he would still probably win an election for doing it. 

[Voll Blau]

13 hours ago, BlueSi13 said:

 

 

May I ask why those in the remain camp aren't pressuring the EU if they really want to avoid no deal?

Because it's not, and never has been, on them. We're the ones who threw our toys out the pram and are threatening to commit national suicide over this. We're the ones who need to take ownership of that and accept that leaving the club means we don't get all the benefits of being a member of it. We're the ones who need to grow up.

[Buce]

 

Kinell, @ozleicester.

 

I thought we and the Yanks had a monopoly on twats in government but this guy is something else:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/16/pacific-islands-will-survive-climate-crisis-because-they-can-pick-our-fruit-australias-deputy-pm-says

[WigstonWanderer]

12 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Kinell, @ozleicester.

 

I thought we and the Yanks had a monopoly on twats in government but this guy is something else:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/16/pacific-islands-will-survive-climate-crisis-because-they-can-pick-our-fruit-australias-deputy-pm-says

There are a load of proper climate change denying tossers over here egged on by a viciously right wing Foxtel media and a powerful coal lobby.

[LiberalFox]

On 15/08/2019 at 08:47, WigstonWanderer said:

I can’t see the problem with Corbyn in charge on a strictly temporary basis with a limited pre agreed agenda. If he reneges on anything Parliament could trigger a vote of no confidence.

 

I don't think that will happen. Problem is Corbyn coming up with proposals that'll only get rejected and losing any chance to actually do anything before October 31st.

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, LiberalFox said:

 

I don't think that will happen. Problem is Corbyn coming up with proposals that'll only get rejected and losing any chance to actually do anything before October 31st.

Tbh I agree. They’ll keep squabbling right to the end. Too many egos and red lines.

[BlueSi13]

7 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

Because it's not, and never has been, on them. We're the ones who threw our toys out the pram and are threatening to commit national suicide over this. We're the ones who need to take ownership of that and accept that leaving the club means we don't get all the benefits of being a member of it. We're the ones who need to grow up.

Which is exactly what we are doing at last.  If the EU continues its refusal to reopen negotiations then we finally have a government committed to getting us out on the 31st of October regardless, fulfilling the wishes of the electorate which was to leave the European Union and restore complete control over our laws, trade and borders 

[BlueSi13]

18 hours ago, Buce said:

 

Motions of no confidence in the United Kingdom

 

Jump to navigation Jump to search

In the United Kingdom, confidence motions are a means of testing the support of the government (executive) in a legislative body, and for the legislature to remove the government from office. A confidence motion may take the form of either a vote of confidence, usually put forward by the government, or a vote of no confidence (or censure motion^[1]), usually proposed by the opposition. When such a motion is put to a vote in the legislature, if a vote of confidence is defeated, or a vote of no confidence is passed, then the incumbent government must resign, or call a general election.^[2]

It is a fundamental principle of the British constitution that the government must retain the confidence of the legislature, as it is not possible for a government to operate effectively without the support of the majority of the people's representatives.^[3] At the national level, this means that the UK government (the cabinet) must retain the confidence of a majority in the House of Commons.

It is possible for a vote of no confidence to succeed where there is a minority government or a small majority, or where there are internal party splits leading to some members of the ruling party voting against its leaders. Where there is a minority government, the government may seek agreements or pacts with other parties in order to prevail in the vote and remain in office.

Despite their importance to the British constitution, for a long time the rules surrounding motions of no confidence were dictated solely by convention. However, since the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, a vote of no confidence must be passed in a specific form in order to create the possibility of an early general election. Under the Act, if a motion of no confidence in the government is passed in express terms, the house must then adopt a vote of confidence in that same or an alternative government within 14 days, or a general election is held.

A no confidence vote was last successfully used on 28 March 1979, when the minority government of James Callaghan was defeated in a confidence motion which read "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government".^[4] A no confidence vote can have the effect of uniting the ruling party; for this reason such motions are rarely used and successful motions are even rarer.^[5] Before 1979 the last successful motion of no confidence occurred in 1924.^[6] The most recent confidence vote instigated by the opposition was held in January 2019, with the government prevailing.^[7]

Defeat of a motion of no-confidence (or winning a vote of confidence) does not provide protection to the government in power for any specific length of time. MPs from any political party may propose another vote immediately, although are unlikely to do so due to convention and potential weakening of their own standing.^[8]

As I've said before, that doesn't state the Prime Minister will be legally obliged to resign even if an alternative government wins a VONC.

[Alf Bentley]

Stephen Bush (generally a shrewd analyst) reckons Boris wants an election BEFORE 31st October: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/downing-street-wants-election-no-deal-brexit-happens-will-it-get-what-it-wants

 

His theory is that Boris wants parliament to block his No Deal plans so that he can run a "people v. parliament" populist campaign to win a Tory/Hard Brexit majority.

 

However, the problems Bush sees with this are:

- Those opposed to No Deal might not get their act together to block it, so it might end up happening anyway, under the current minority govt.

- If No Deal happens and causes chaos, Boris might not be in a great position to win a majority in an election after 31st October....& would be vulnerable to facing an early election

.....logically, we could end up with an accidental, chaotic No Deal, closely followed by a general election that turfs Boris out, possibly even replacing him with Corbyn! 

 

One point that Bush doesn't address is what Farage's stance would be, if we do have an election before 31st October.

It's quite conceivable that the Brexit Party could agree some sort of electoral pact with the Tories.....but Farage's comments so far suggest that he wouldn't do that, and would stand candidates in every seat.

That might be a negotiating stance (seeking guarantees from the Tories before agreeing a pact), but if not, then a pre-Halloween election would be a massive gamble by Boris, with a highly unpredictable outcome - and every chance of a bad result for him.

 

 

Edited 16 August 2019 by Alf Bentley

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

21 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

There you go, @Innovindil. There are people applauding your post.

 

Did someone suggest that the Politics Thread had become a left-wing echo chamber?

 

I bet DT loved my reply to your post, too, though..... 

Oh yes.

[Voll Blau]

29 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Which is exactly what we are doing at last.  If the EU continues its refusal to reopen negotiations then we finally have a government committed to getting us out on the 31st of October regardless, fulfilling the wishes of the electorate which was to leave the European Union and restore complete control over our laws, trade and borders 

Well I'm sure I'll be able to take some comfort from that despite being told my job is likely to to be fvcked in the event of No Deal. Rule fvcking Britannia eh lads!

 

Oh, and the EU don't have to reopen negotiations because the current deal also fulfills the wishes of the electorate perfectly well. Like I say, it's us who are refusing to accept that fact, not them.

[Buce]

11 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

No, but the country I live in is hell bent on it right now. And all to appease deluded, small-minded pricks like yourself.

 

You add absolutely nothing to this forum, or any debate on it. Quite why you're still allowed to post on it is beyond me given the constant personal, xenophobic and racist abuse you've shat out through your keyboard over the years.

 

You missed out homophobic.

[Jon the Hat]

Well this is going well ladies.  Calm it down a bit before we lose the thread again.

 

This nonsense about a vote of no confidence is playing into Boris' hands.  He will call a GE, win it comfortably and we will Brexit and we can all move on.  Sadly after the May debacle, this is the only way forward.  We will have a Canada style deal with the EU within a year or two, and after a rough period things will be fine. Expect some serious cash to be thrown around in the short term to encourage investment and job creation.  Its going to be fun!