The Politics Thread 2019

[Buce]

Yet another bizarre claim from a Leaver - they really do live in a different reality:

EU to blame for football's new handball rule, claims Ian Holloway:

The European Union has been blamed for many of the serious problems in British society, including the power of vacuum cleaners and the shape of bananas, and a new charge must now be added: football’s handball rule.

The former Queens Park Rangers manager Ian Holloway has bizarrely claimed that the EU is responsible for Gabriel Jesus’s late goal for Manchester City against Tottenham being disallowed.

 

The strike was dramatically chalked off after a VAR check established that City’s Aymeric Laporte had handled the ball. Holloway, seemingly unaware of the law changes instituted by Ifab, the International Football Association Board, has no doubt where responsibility lies.

“I don’t think that’s our boys making up that new change of law,” he told The Debate on Sky Sports. “I think that’s people telling us what we should do with our game. Now, they should stop doing that. I hope we get out of Brexit, because that’s what we all voted for, and sort that out, because you cannot have someone telling us how to do our own game.”

Ifab’s five members comprise the English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish FAs and Fifa, which represents its other football associations. The Premier League’s VAR hub in Stockley Park is not – or at least not yet – being controlled from Brussels.

[Nick]

Hollowhead

 

 

[bovril]

3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

The euro politicians are looking at an impending global downturn ...... will they hold their bottle and play the long game (not good for us) or cede to imminent domestic political and economic pressures and rush to take the ‘moral high ground’ as someone referenced a few posts ago to relieve the risk of an obvious drop off in their own GDP courtesy of a no deal. 

 

 

What amazes me is that Eurosceptics and Europhobes have been telling us for years that the EU is "a political not an economic project", but loads of them still expect they will now compromise this project to avoid short term economic pain. 

 

I honestly think this will go down as one of the worst acts of folly since WW2 and history will not be kind to Brexit. 

Edited 21 August 2019 by bovril

[Guest]

Brexit is the end of the empirical cycle that saw a small country dominate the world, now it will return to being a small insignificant island, probably losing its final vestiges of empire including NI and Scotland.

[Countryfox]

1 hour ago, FIF said:

Brexit is the end of the empirical cycle that saw a small country dominate the world, now it will return to being a small insignificant island, probably losing its final vestiges of empire including NI and Scotland.

 

Perhaps not such a bad thing ..

[Nick]

1 hour ago, FIF said:

Brexit is the end of the empirical cycle that saw a small country dominate the world, now it will return to being a small insignificant island, probably losing its final vestiges of empire including NI and Scotland.

If it’s a cycle (not that there’s any evidence for this whatsoever) surely it doesn’t end.

 

It’s nice words an all that but the British Empire died long ago and whilst I’d rather remain and certainly do so over a hard Brexit, I do think that the UK will recover and likely grow strong again post Brexit - I’m just very unsure if it’s worth the cost and the impact on people during the term it takes for us to recover - which may well be a decade or more and the damage to some individual livelihoods, they may never recover from. As to whether the UK will break up - I’m inclined to think not in the short term but uncertainty and the time it takes to recover from the impact could trigger a break up further down the road, though I wouldn’t yet call it probable.

[bovril]

34 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

If it’s a cycle (not that there’s any evidence for this whatsoever) surely it doesn’t end.

 

It’s nice words an all that but the British Empire died long ago and whilst I’d rather remain and certainly do so over a hard Brexit, I do think that the UK will recover and likely grow strong again post Brexit - I’m just very unsure if it’s worth the cost and the impact on people during the term it takes for us to recover - which may well be a decade or more and the damage to some individual livelihoods, they may never recover from. As to whether the UK will break up - I’m inclined to think not in the short term but uncertainty and the time it takes to recover from the impact could trigger a break up further down the road, though I wouldn’t yet call it probable.

I'm not sure I'm so optimistic. A hard Brexit will lead to economic and social hardship in the first few years. The Tories seem to be preparing to blame others for a no-deal Brexit and that, coupled with a sense of humiliation that England will surely feel, could lead to a serious rise in far-right nationalism. Those things are more likely to happen in places where people believe those things can't happen. 

[Nick]

21 minutes ago, bovril said:

I'm not sure I'm so optimistic. A hard Brexit will lead to economic and social hardship in the first few years. The Tories seem to be preparing to blame others for a no-deal Brexit and that, coupled with a sense of humiliation that England will surely feel, could lead to a serious rise in far-right nationalism. Those things are more likely to happen in places where people believe those things can't happen. 

Like I said above could take a decade to recover from and cause lots of harm.

[Grebfromgrebland]

9 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

Like I said above could take a decade to recover from and cause lots of harm.

Most estimates for things to get better are for in 50 to 70 years time.

[Beechey]

15 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

Most estimates for things to get better are for in 50 to 70 years time.

I'm absolutely not a proponent for no-deal, and I hope I've made that obvious, I've always been a fan of EFTA+EEA - but that's just totally wrong.

 

Pretty much all studies conducted envision growth in the medium and long term (+30 years), just rather than around 30% growth, it is envisioned to be ~24% growth instead.

https://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/LSE-Commission/Hearing-11---The-impact-of-Brexit-on-jobs-and-economic-growth-sumary.pdf

 

In fact, even a recent pessimistic view by the OBR suggested that if the UK entered a year long recession as a result of a no deal (which people are suggesting may or will happen), then it will have recovered by 2022 - a recovery time of 2-2.5 years, not 50, and not 70.

 

You'll have to show me where these "most estimates" are, because I can't find them suggesting it'll take 70 years to "get better".

 

IMF predict basically the same thing

 

Edited 21 August 2019 by Beechey

[Nick]

1 hour ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

Most estimates for things to get better are for in 50 to 70 years time.

I’ve not seen any of that buddy.

[Buce]

1 hour ago, Beechey said:

I'm absolutely not a proponent for no-deal, and I hope I've made that obvious, I've always been a fan of EFTA+EEA - but that's just totally wrong.

 

Pretty much all studies conducted envision growth in the medium and long term (+30 years), just rather than around 30% growth, it is envisioned to be ~24% growth instead.

https://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/LSE-Commission/Hearing-11---The-impact-of-Brexit-on-jobs-and-economic-growth-sumary.pdf

 

In fact, even a recent pessimistic view by the OBR suggested that if the UK entered a year long recession as a result of a no deal (which people are suggesting may or will happen), then it will have recovered by 2022 - a recovery time of 2-2.5 years, not 50, and not 70.

 

You'll have to show me where these "most estimates" are, because I can't find them suggesting it'll take 70 years to "get better".

 

IMF predict basically the same thing

 

 

It was an avid proponent of Leave, Jacob Rees-Smug who said it in an interview on Channel 4:

 

He said, "We won’t know the full economic consequences for a very long time” and that “the overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years”.

[Finnegan]

2 hours ago, bovril said:

I'm not sure I'm so optimistic. A hard Brexit will lead to economic and social hardship in the first few years. The Tories seem to be preparing to blame others for a no-deal Brexit and that, coupled with a sense of humiliation that England will surely feel, could lead to a serious rise in far-right nationalism. Those things are more likely to happen in places where people believe those things can't happen. 

 

Gotta love it. Far right nationalism votes for Brexit. Brexit makes things worse. Far right nationalism gets angrier. 

 

 

 

[Beechey]

15 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

It was an avid proponent of Leave, Jacob Rees-Smug who said it in an interview on Channel 4:

 

He said, "We won’t know the full economic consequences for a very long time” and that “the overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years”.

Those are quite clearly two separate statements though. One referring to consequences where his timeframe is vague on purpose, and one for opportunity, where he labels a very long timeframe, probably also on purpose.

Having a clearer view of the consequences is also not the same as saying "it will take 50-70 years for things to get better".

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

Gotta love it. Far right nationalism votes for Brexit. Brexit makes things worse. Far right nationalism gets angrier. 

 

 

 

Yeah, that's about it.

 

Problem is though, the worse it gets, the stronger such far-right groups and their influence becomes.

[Buce]

13 minutes ago, Beechey said:

Those are quite clearly two separate statements though. One referring to consequences where his timeframe is vague on purpose, and one for opportunity, where he labels a very long timeframe, probably also on purpose.

Having a clearer view of the consequences is also not the same as saying "it will take 50-70 years for things to get better".

 

Yes, I agree.

 

But it's also a long way from saying everything in the garden is lovely. Fact is, there are too many imponderables for even the experts to say with any certainty what will happen post Brexit, but personally, I fear the worst, both economically and socially.

[Beechey]

16 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Yes, I agree.

 

But it's also a long way from saying everything in the garden is lovely. Fact is, there are too many imponderables for even the experts to say with any certainty what will happen post Brexit, but personally, I fear the worst, both economically and socially.

I agree, for this reason alone there should never have been a no-deal contemplated.

I don't think I'll ever be able to fully understand the draw of it compared to more sane alternatives.

 

I'm more worried about the social impact than economic. I don't think the pain in the medium-long term will be too bad, but the damage to the social fabric of the country may irreparable.

It's obvious that there has to be a massive push to  not alienate those who don't want no-deal in the event of a no-deal. I think this is why it's likely any major economic deficit goals are going out of the window and there will probably be a colossal push for much more spending by government.

Edited 21 August 2019 by Beechey

[bovril]

14 minutes ago, Beechey said:

I'm more worried about the social impact than economic. I don't think the pain in the medium-long term will be too bad, but the damage to the social fabric of the country may irreparable.

 

It will seriously damage our reputation for years and create incredibly bad will between the UK and our nearest neighbours, especially Ireland. Staggeringly, millions of people want this. 

[Beechey]

5 minutes ago, bovril said:

It will seriously damage our reputation for years and create incredibly bad will between the UK and our nearest neighbours, especially Ireland. Staggeringly, millions of people want this. 

I don't know if it will be bad will, as in fairness the deal May and the EU agreed has been rejected three times already by Parliament - it's been tried and tested, and it failed, but it will definitely make us seem less reliable.

Funnily enough, because of this we might actually end up having to engage ourselves more in European security to plaster over those cracks.

 

I'm guessing no government wants us to go through a phase of splendid isolation again.

Edited 21 August 2019 by Beechey

[Grebfromgrebland]

35 minutes ago, Beechey said:

 

I'm guessing no government wants us to go through a phase of splendid isolation again.

You don't read enough dystopian sci fi

[Spudulike]

This 30 days to come up with an alternative to the Back-Stop is a farce. The EU will already know the solution, it's the exact same one they will put in place in the event of a no-deal Brexit. It's just stupid face saving politics.

[Foxxed]

 

Hahaha, has this been posted before? It's magnificent. I love it. I assumed the audio was computer generated to make her look stupid but I've been reliably informed this is for real.

[Foxxed]

I'm not sure if Liz Truss is a real minister or one of Steve Coogan's thought experiements.

 

 

Edited 21 August 2019 by Foxxed
spelling!

[BlueSi13]

11 hours ago, FIF said:

Brexit is the end of the empirical cycle that saw a small country dominate the world, now it will return to being a small insignificant island, probably losing its final vestiges of empire including NI and Scotland.

Jesus Christ we're the 5th largest economy in the world, we're not San Marino FFS.  Honestly the drama...

 

Meanwhile in other news,

 

Stuart Rose, the former Chairman of the remain campaign says we need to get on with Brexit:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/20/stuart-rose-former-chairman-remain-campaign-dismisses-calls/

 

As for the latest polling:

CON: 42% (+17)

LAB: 28% (-6)

LDEM: 15% (-)

BREX: 5% (-5)

GRN: 3% (-)

TIG/CHUK: 1% (-)

UKIP: 0% (-4)

via @KantarTNS, 15 - 19 Aug Chgs. w/ 13 May

 

If this was accurate the Conservatives would have a majority of 192.  Aware that other polls aren't as dramatic as this one but they are all showing a comfortable lead for the Conservatives. The Boris bounce continues so don't expect a change of course anytime soon.  

 

 

Edited 21 August 2019 by BlueSi13

[Dr The Singh]

24 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

This 30 days to come up with an alternative to the Back-Stop is a farce. The EU will already know the solution, it's the exact same one they will put in place in the event of a no-deal Brexit. It's just stupid face saving politics.

The drama to destruction.  If Europe or Bozco really cared about the public and did what there elected to do, the drama would end