Brexit!

[Beechey]

 

[The Guvnor]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

As @WigstonWanderer says, this sounds very much like the Govt's policy in the first place.

 

Every reliable analyst says that, while No Deal will harm the EU27, it will harm the UK much more. That's logical as the EU27 account for almost 50% of UK trade, whereas the UK only accounts for about 12% of EU27 trade (looking only at trade).

 

The strategy of threatening No Deal in those circumstances sounds very much like walking into a bank, shouting "Give me your cash or I'll blow my head off, damaging the bank walls and scaring your customers!"

 

Of course, some EU27 countries (notably Ireland - & Germany, Holland, France to a lesser extent) will suffer more harm than others, but still less than us, with the possible exception of Ireland.

The EU seems to be seeking to counteract this by declaring No Deal an official emergency, allowing those countries worst affected access to extra EU funds.

 

Anyway, it's perfectly clear that the Govt has made no new proposals to the EU. Boris hasn't answered questions about this rom parliament or his own MPs - & EU leaders are clear nothing new (e.g. alternative to backstop) has been proposed.

If untrue, the Govt could easily disprove this by announcing its alternative proposals.....but it hasn't. It's running down the clock, happy to risk No Deal & to use the crisis to try to get a 5-year majority by blaming the "Remainer parliament" & the EU for the crisis.

 

If Boris doesn't honour the bill (as Gove implied on Marr) and runs down the clock to No Deal, there will be other routes to challenge that in parliament and the courts.

But if an election were approved, there is a known risk that Boris could set/shift the date to after 31st October, keep parliament suspended during the campaign & run down the clock to No Deal.

Tactically & morally, it would also be stupid to play into his hands by agreeing to a toxic, divisive pre-Brexit "patriotic election" allowing Boris to make all sorts of false promises & to whip up his troops against "the enemy within" (48%+ of the nation).

He said that there was only a "one in a million risk" of No Deal, so I look forward to his great new deal......Brexiteers have always claimed that we were in a strong negotiating position due to German car exports etc......

As always a very comprehensive reply Alf. And don't get me wrong I struggle atm to believe anything that is being said by the Tories but especially Labour.

However I still believe that in this particular case whether you believe in the integrity of Boris or not,  any negotiating position now has been comrpromised.

[ealingfox]

Monday

Johnson: I don't want an election. You don't want an election.

 

People: Yeah we don't want an election!

 

Tuesday

Johnson: Actually I lied I do want an election.

 

Wednesday

Opposition: We don't want an election

 

Thursday

Johnson and People: Wtf how dare you not want an election 

[Wortho]

What sums up the Labour party to me was when Mcdonnell made a speech in May this year in Trafalgar Square.

Behind Mcdonnell was a Proletarian International banner with Mao, Stalin, Lenin. Obviously Mcdonnell looks up to these three leaders. I wonder how many millions of their own they people they killed. Perhaps 100 million. Why not through Hitler in to top it off. 

[Dames]

One thing that really annoys me about leavers is their constant whining about upholding democracy but the reality is as a country we had the first vote on this in 1975 and the leavers lost even more convincingly so than the remain side in 2016 yet they have been doing nothing but complain and try to overturn the result ever since which they successfully did in 2016.

 

The reality is democracy allows for a difference of opinion and if it wasn't for democracy the leavers would never have been able to get the chance for another vote. As it stands its currently 1-1, we are now in a position where we now know more about the ramifications of a leave vote and the type of deal that would be on offer if the country were to take it. It would make most sense at this point to have a tie breaker referendum and put the matter to bed once and for all.

[BlueSi13]

11 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

As @WigstonWanderer says, this sounds very much like the Govt's policy in the first place.

 

Every reliable analyst says that, while No Deal will harm the EU27, it will harm the UK much more. That's logical as the EU27 account for almost 50% of UK trade, whereas the UK only accounts for about 12% of EU27 trade (looking only at trade).

 

The strategy of threatening No Deal in those circumstances sounds very much like walking into a bank, shouting "Give me your cash or I'll blow my head off, damaging the bank walls and scaring your customers!"

 

Of course, some EU27 countries (notably Ireland - & Germany, Holland, France to a lesser extent) will suffer more harm than others, but still less than us, with the possible exception of Ireland.

The EU seems to be seeking to counteract this by declaring No Deal an official emergency, allowing those countries worst affected access to extra EU funds.

 

Anyway, it's perfectly clear that the Govt has made no new proposals to the EU. Boris hasn't answered questions about this rom parliament or his own MPs - & EU leaders are clear nothing new (e.g. alternative to backstop) has been proposed.

If untrue, the Govt could easily disprove this by announcing its alternative proposals.....but it hasn't. It's running down the clock, happy to risk No Deal & to use the crisis to try to get a 5-year majority by blaming the "Remainer parliament" & the EU for the crisis.

 

If Boris doesn't honour the bill (as Gove implied on Marr) and runs down the clock to No Deal, there will be other routes to challenge that in parliament and the courts.

But if an election were approved, there is a known risk that Boris could set/shift the date to after 31st October, keep parliament suspended during the campaign & run down the clock to No Deal.

Tactically & morally, it would also be stupid to play into his hands by agreeing to a toxic, divisive pre-Brexit "patriotic election" allowing Boris to make all sorts of false promises & to whip up his troops against "the enemy within" (48%+ of the nation).

He said that there was only a "one in a million risk" of No Deal, so I look forward to his great new deal......Brexiteers have always claimed that we were in a strong negotiating position due to German car exports etc......

This thread sums it up nicely.

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1168964684764131328.html

 

Essentially those analysts expect our GDP growth to be 0.5% lower per year then it would have done if we'd voted to remain.  So if we were originally projected to grow by 1.5%, we'd instead be growing at 1% per year.  But the key word there is growing.  If you accept those forecasts as gospel then the UK economy will have grown 5.5% less by 2030.

 

However the breakdown of that 5.5% drop is:

 

-1.8% - lower immigration (fixable by domestic policy)

-3.0% - lower productivity (fixable by domestic policy)

-0.7% - loss of CM/SU and increased friction...that's over 12 years by the way which equates to 0.055% pa or £1bn.

 

Those forecasts also don't take in to account the benefits of leaving such as independently creating trade, legal, business and immigration policies that serve to benefit the UK.

 

Not exactly the DISASTER CATASTROPHE HORRIFIC CLIFF EDGE CRASHING OUT that the remain camp have screaming from the mountain top.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

If Boris just doesn't ask for the extension then what can Parliament do about it?  They are playing a very dangerous game not allowing him to call an election.  Really they have take control away from the government and then refuse to allow the government to call a general election.  It is not only unprecedented it is completely undemocratic.  I personally don;t believe anyone other than the executive should be able to pass laws.  If you want to do something against a government you have to remove that government.  Truly shocking, and much more damaging than the lack of competence on either side of the house.

 

Not for the first time recently, you seem happy for the Govt to ignore our sovereign, democratically-elected parliament (to which Brexit was supposed to be returning power, as I recall).

 

Does this apply only to right-wing govts doing things you agree with, or should the executive also be all-powerful & subject to little scrutiny when a left-wing govt is in power?

 

A hypothetical example: Corbyn ends up in No. 10 and produces legislation to nationalize various utilities without compensation. There's no evidence this policy has popular support and parliament is opposed. Moderate Labour MPs rebel and join Tories to block the govt. legislation. Corbyn says he'll just ignore parliament and/or not submit the rebel bill for royal assent and/or suspend democracy ("prorogue parliament"). Are you happy about an all-powerful govt avoiding democratic scrutiny and trashing the law under these circumstances, too?

 

How is the decision to refuse an election (at this point) undemocratic? The Fixed Term Parliaments Act states that the Govt needs to either lose a confidence vote or get a 2/3 majority if it wants an early election. Our MPs are all democratically elected and they voted not to give Boris his 2/3 majority at this stage (I'm sure an election will happen within a couple of months).....hard to imagine anything more democratic! If Boris doesn't like it, he could change his policy/approach to one that our elected representatives WILL support or he could get on with negotiating this great deal he keeps mentioning....or he could call a no-confidence vote in his own govt.

 

We have a long history of our democratically-elected parliament blocking specific govt policies without needing to trigger an election every time. What is shocking is that we have a govt seeking to use a major crisis to cynically grab power by suspending democracy, potentially ignoring parliamentary legislation, repeatedly telling lies, making no serious attempt to negotiate a way out of the crisis, and seeking to cynically use the crisis to call a toxic, divisive "patriotic" election in the hope of conning the public into giving them complete power for 5 years before Joe Public can see the reality of either No Deal or the sort of compromise Brexit deal that is feasible.

[BlueSi13]

1 minute ago, Dames said:

One thing that really annoys me about leavers is their constant whining about upholding democracy but the reality is as a country we had the first vote on this in 1975 and the leavers lost even more convincingly so than the remain side in 2016 yet they have been doing nothing but complain and try to overturn the result ever since which they successfully did in 2016.

 

The reality is democracy allows for a difference of opinion and if it wasn't for democracy the leavers would never have been able to get the chance for another vote. As it stands its currently 1-1, we are now in a position where we now know more about the ramifications of a leave vote and the type of deal that would be on offer if the country were to take it. It would make most sense at this point to have a tie breaker referendum and put the matter to bed once and for all.

It will be 1-1 after we've actually left the EU.  Perhaps we can have the decider in 2041?

[Tommo220]

4 minutes ago, Wortho said:

What sums up the Labour party to me was when Mcdonnell made a speech in May this year in Trafalgar Square.

Behind Mcdonnell was a Proletarian International banner with Mao, Stalin, Lenin. Obviously Mcdonnell looks up to these three leaders. I wonder how many millions of their own they people they killed. Perhaps 100 million. Why not through Hitler in to top it off. 

WOW..... That REALLY is the Daily Mail take on that speech isn't it!? 

 

The proletarian banners etc. were being blown by members of the rally that he was addressing - but don't let the truth get in the way of a good Daily Mail story.

 

 

[Beechey]

7 minutes ago, Dames said:

One thing that really annoys me about leavers is their constant whining about upholding democracy but the reality is as a country we had the first vote on this in 1975 and the leavers lost even more convincingly so than the remain side in 2016 yet they have been doing nothing but complain and try to overturn the result ever since which they successfully did in 2016.

 

The reality is democracy allows for a difference of opinion and if it wasn't for democracy the leavers would never have been able to get the chance for another vote. As it stands its currently 1-1, we are now in a position where we now know more about the ramifications of a leave vote and the type of deal that would be on offer if the country were to take it. It would make most sense at this point to have a tie breaker referendum and put the matter to bed once and for all.

In fairness, the major current Eurosceptic movement didn't start until the Maastricht Treaty (dissolution of the EEC and creation of the EU) in 1992 - a full 17 years later than you say.

It didn't really take hold until ~2011-2013.

[Dames]

Just now, BlueSi13 said:

This thread sums it up nicely.

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1168964684764131328.html

 

Essentially those analysts expect our GDP growth to be 0.5% lower per year then it would have done if we'd voted to remain.  So if we were originally projected to grow by 1.5%, we'd instead be growing at 1% per year.  But the key word there is growing.  If you accept those forecasts as gospel then the UK economy will have grown 5.5% less by 2030.

 

However the breakdown of that 5.5% drop is:

 

-1.8% - lower immigration (fixable by domestic policy)

-3.0% - lower productivity (fixable by domestic policy)

-0.7% - loss of CM/SU and increased friction...that's over 12 years by the way which equates to 0.055% pa or £1bn.

 

Those forecasts also don't take in to account the benefits of leaving such as independently creating trade, legal, business and immigration policies that serve to benefit the UK.

 

Not exactly the DISASTER CATASTROPHE HORRIFIC CLIFF EDGE CRASHING OUT that the remain camp have screaming from the mountain top.

It takes years to agree trade deals even when both sides are willing to make one. Its not a case of leaving on the 31st of October and walking into new trade deals on the 1st of November. As a country we've let the EU handle all the negotiations for years on trade and kept out of it, mostly because our politicians are self serving and lazy.

 

In the case of no deal we'll revert to trading on WTO terms, by the way how does that work out for the North Koreans? and it will take us a minimum of 5 years before the first trade deals are ratified. In the meantime the cost of living will go up dramatically for ordinary people such as ourselves and even when trade terms are more favourable for Britian will any company lower prices after 5 years of keeping them high and being allowed too? No because its all about profits.

 

This has been about what its always been about rich toffs looking to make as much money as they can without a care to who it affects. JRM stands to make millions when his investment firm capitalists on the market uncertainty by hoovering up assets on the cheap. Not to mention the Tories plan on 'cutting the red tape' by reducing corporation tax, tax for the rich and removing workers rights, who do you think will make up the tax shortfalls? Us.

 

People need to wake up and realise that Brexit isn't for them, its for the rich.

[Wortho]

Just now, Tommo220 said:

WOW..... That REALLY is the Daily Mail take on that speech isn't it!? 

 

The proletarian banners etc. were being blown by members of the rally that he was addressing - but don't let the truth get in the way of a good Daily Mail story.

 

 

So you don't think Corbyn and Mcdonnell aren't supporters of these "heroes"? Actually I read the Guardian is that okay with you?

[Dames]

1 minute ago, Beechey said:

In fairness, the major current Eurosceptic movement didn't start until the Maastricht Treaty (dissolution of the EEC and creation of the EU) in 1992 - a full 17 years later than you say.

It didn't really take hold until ~2011-2013.

Time isn't relative in this issue at all because the current mindset is that a referendum was held, it should be respected no matter the cost. Completely ignoring and not respecting the referendum that was previously held on this exact same issue.

 

I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of what many people are saying.

[Alf Bentley]

19 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

As always a very comprehensive reply Alf. And don't get me wrong I struggle atm to believe anything that is being said by the Tories but especially Labour.

However I still believe that in this particular case whether you believe in the integrity of Boris or not,  any negotiating position now has been comrpromised.

 

"comprehensive" = "verbose"? 

 

Agree to disagree on your final point. For reasons stated - and, ironically, because the EU is in a fragile state - I reckon the chances of significant EU concessions were already close to zero.

Given internal EU strife, it simply cannot afford to be seen to crumble to unreasonable demands from the UK - and knows that, harmful as No Deal will be to them, it will be worse for the UK.

I reckon they'd reluctantly take the No Deal hit rather than crumble, showing weakness that could easily contribute to the collapse of the EU within a few years.

 

Also, if Boris is making progress in negotiations and has alternative proposals to the backstop, why doesn't he announce them? That would presumably put pressure on the EU & win public support.

The answer seems to be that it's because he's made no proposals and has  made no progress in negotiations....

[Finnaldo]

4 minutes ago, Wortho said:

So you don't think Corbyn and Mcdonnell aren't supporters of these "heroes"?

 

Short answer: no

 

Long answer: probably about in the same capacity as Boris is a supporter of Hitler

[The Guvnor]

7 minutes ago, Dames said:

One thing that really annoys me about leavers is their constant whining about upholding democracy but the reality is as a country we had the first vote on this in 1975 and the leavers lost even more convincingly so than the remain side in 2016 yet they have been doing nothing but complain and try to overturn the result ever since which they successfully did in 2016.

 

The reality is democracy allows for a difference of opinion and if it wasn't for democracy the leavers would never have been able to get the chance for another vote. As it stands its currently 1-1, we are now in a position where we now know more about the ramifications of a leave vote and the type of deal that would be on offer if the country were to take it. It would make most sense at this point to have a tie breaker referendum and put the matter to bed once and for all.

But it wouldn't for so many reasons. What would be on the ballot paper as the only 'deal' ever offered was Mays deal and that was voted down three times by our democratic Parliament  so what exactly would you be voting for , I  assume you want remain as one option versus what exactly ?

[Beechey]

1 minute ago, Dames said:

Time isn't relative in this issue at all because the current mindset is that a referendum was held, it should be respected no matter the cost. Completely ignoring and not respecting the referendum that was previously held on this exact same issue.

 

I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of what many people are saying.

The difference is that there are demands for a new referendum before the UK has even left. It would be akin to if we had a vote to join (we didn't), and before Heath signed us into the EEC, there were calls from Eurosceptics for a new vote. It just doesn't sit well with a lot of people. There is hypocrisy, but it's a much different situation between the two votes. The argument though is that we voted to remain within the EEC, not the European Union.

[Tommo220]

3 minutes ago, Wortho said:

So you don't think Corbyn and Mcdonnell aren't supporters of these "heroes"? Actually I read the Guardian is that okay with you?

i couldn't care less what you read flower, i'm merely pointing out the agenda behind your post.

 

i'd suggest that they probably aren't supports of these "heroes" no, seeing as they oversaw some of the worst atrocities in recent times.  This is like saying that Boris is a massive fan of Mugabe.

 

[Beechey]

 

[BlueSi13]

6 minutes ago, Dames said:

It takes years to agree trade deals even when both sides are willing to make one. Its not a case of leaving on the 31st of October and walking into new trade deals on the 1st of November. As a country we've let the EU handle all the negotiations for years on trade and kept out of it, mostly because our politicians are self serving and lazy.

 

In the case of no deal we'll revert to trading on WTO terms, by the way how does that work out for the North Koreans? and it will take us a minimum of 5 years before the first trade deals are ratified. In the meantime the cost of living will go up dramatically for ordinary people such as ourselves and even when trade terms are more favourable for Britian will any company lower prices after 5 years of keeping them high and being allowed too? No because its all about profits.

 

This has been about what its always been about rich toffs looking to make as much money as they can without a care to who it affects. JRM stands to make millions when his investment firm capitalists on the market uncertainty by hoovering up assets on the cheap. Not to mention the Tories plan on 'cutting the red tape' by reducing corporation tax, tax for the rich and removing workers rights, who do you think will make up the tax shortfalls? Us.

 

People need to wake up and realise that Brexit isn't for them, its for the rich.

Completely agree, it was a complete joke we handed over such power in the first place.

 

Couldn't care less how it works for North Korea, what the forecasts show (which remainers love to treat as gospel) is that no deal is far from a catastrophe for the UK, despite the hysterical protests by those who don't want to leave.

[Dames]

18 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

But it wouldn't for so many reasons. What would be on the ballot paper as the only 'deal' ever offered was Mays deal and that was voted down three times by our democratic Parliament  so what exactly would you be voting for , I  assume you want remain as one option versus what exactly ?

I think a reasonable solution would be in a sense a two stage referendum. The first stage would have 3 options, leave with the deal on the table, leave with no deal and remain. The second stage would be a direct tie breaker between the top two from the previous stage. People will say they are tired and blah blah but the future of our country is at stake so to be honest... suck it up. The truth is there are people that want to leave with a deal but if a deal isn't possible they would like to remain or leave with no deal and then you have the hardcore voters for both remain and no deal. I think it would be a mistake to ignore the no deal voters by only offering a choice between a deal and remain, everyone should have a fair shout now things are clearer.

 

 

18 minutes ago, Beechey said:

The difference is that there are demands for a new referendum before the UK has even left. It would be akin to if we had a vote to join (we didn't), and before Heath signed us into the EEC, there were calls from Eurosceptics for a new vote. It just doesn't sit well with a lot of people. There is hypocrisy, but it's a much different situation between the two votes. The argument though is that we voted to remain within the EEC, not the European Union.

 

The truth is that the leave campaign was built on the fact that 'we would get a great deal' and that no deal was a scare tactic by the remainers. Now the hardcore leavers have taken up No deal by default I believe the people who believed they thought we'd be getting a 'great deal' should be given a second chance.

 

If we really were to get a good deal this wouldn't be an issue and another thing to count is that if the ERG and hardcore leavers in the Tory party voted for the deal they got we would have left the EU by now so this situation is entirely of their making. Not the remainers as many people are trying to say.

[Tommo220]

and now Jo Johnson - business minister has resigned from the cabinet AND as an MP.

 

Must have realised how bad Brexit was going to be for business?

[Beechey]

Just now, Dames said:

I think a reasonable solution would be in a sense a two stage referendum. The first stage would have 3 options, leave with the deal on the table, leave with no deal and remain. The second stage would be a direct tie breaker between the top two from the previous stage. People will say they are tired and blah blah but the future of our country is at stake so to be honest... suck it up. The truth is there are people that want to leave with a deal but if a deal isn't possible they would like to remain or leave with no deal and then you have the hardcore voters for both no deal in remain and no deal. I think it would be a mistake to ignore the no deal voters by only offering a choice between a deal and remain, everyone should have a fair shout now things are clearer.

 

 

 

The truth is that the leave campaign was built on the fact that 'we would get a great deal' and that no deal was a scare tactic by the remainers. Now the hardcore leavers have taken up No deal by default I believe the people who believed they thought we'd be getting a 'great deal' should be given a second chance.

 

If we really were to get a good deal this wouldn't be an issue and another thing to count is that if the ERG and hardcore leavers in the Tory party voted for the deal they got we would have left the EU by now so this situation is entirely of their making. Not the remainers as many people are trying to say.

Don't really disagree.

 

The really annoying thing for me was that the Leave campaign for much of the referendum and before the referendum was for a sensible deal (EFTA+EEA), a completely workable solution which would have not caused anything close to this awful division. Only when Cameron/Osborne started saying we'd have to leave the Single Market did it all start to fall apart. Since the referendum we kind of refought those points. Despite what Cameron said during the referendum, there appeared to be a majority for that kind of deal, and then May released her completely unworkable red lines which have slowly forced us into a position where each side is so entrenched in their "perfect Brexit" ideas, that neither now look to compromise.

 

I think another referendum on no deal or remain would completely tear this country apart. There's no ideal majority for either looking at the polls.

 

I still think a compromised solution is the only way forward, I just don't think we're going to get it.

[Beechey]

4 minutes ago, Tommo220 said:

and now Jo Johnson - business minister has resigned from the cabinet AND as an MP.

 

Must have realised how bad Brexit was going to be for business?

"It’s been an honour to represent Orpington for 9 years & to serve as a minister under three PMs. In recent weeks I’ve been torn between family loyalty and the national interest - it’s an unresolvable tension & time for others to take on my roles as MP & Minister."

 

Doesn't want to choose between family and what he thinks about Brexit.

[Dames]

2 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Completely agree, it was a complete joke we handed over such power in the first place.

 

Couldn't care less how it works for North Korea, what the forecasts show (which remainers love to treat as gospel) is that no deal is far from a catastrophe for the UK, despite the hysterical protests by those who don't want to leave.

Its not going to be a complete catastrophe in an end of the world sense but the reality is that some people will really suffer, especially those in need of timely medicine deliveries from out counterparts in Europe. I really hope that if this situation comes to pass that humanity will prevail and there will be a temporary agreement of sorts to at least allow medicine to pass but I fear that with this Government and the EU they will be far more interest in points scoring.

 

Life will get more expensive for the common person in the short-mid term and there most certainly will be a recession and judging on how the last one worked out, it'll be a rough few years. We will get over it but the reality is its completely avoidable and self inflicted.