Brexit!

[LiberalFox]

It dawned on me the other day that if we have a general election, I'd like Corbyn to win and I'd like my party to do what they can to moderate a Corbyn led government. 

[Finnaldo]

I was against the Politics Thread being closed but now I've seen Hitler being called a Social Democrat  it's about time we banned political talk completely from FoxesTalk

 

We're two pages away from debating skull sizes

Edited 5 September 2019 by Finnaldo

[Tommo220]

17 minutes ago, Wortho said:

So if Boris gave a speech with a banner of Social Democrat Adolf Hitler behind him you wouldn't think he supported him?

If Boris, at a Tory Party conference gave a speech with a swastika behind him then yeh, i'd think he should be linked.  If Boris does an open air speech and happened to get papped with a person in attendance who had an i <3 Hitler t-shirt on, no i wouldn't think he supported him.

 

but, Back to Brexit....

Edited 5 September 2019 by Tommo220

[Alf Bentley]

24 minutes ago, Stadt said:

Wonder how things would be different now had Burnham won Labour’s leadership contest? He’s certainly much more electable than Corbyn.

 

I wonder. I'd been impressed with Burnham before he stood for leader, but thought he seemed out of his depth during that campaign (his boyish looks don't help, as with Miliband).

From what little I've seen of him since, in his capacity as Manchester Mayor, he's come across well again.....who knows?

 

Labour probably has a dozen leading politicians who'd be more electable than Corbyn - though Jezza performed well during the 2017 election campaign.

 

I also wonder how much of an asset Boris will be for the Tories? He comes across as entertaining, positive and amusing when he's not challenged or asked about detail....but he won't be able to avoid the latter during an election campaign.

What little I saw of the PMQs yesterday, I thought Boris came across really poorly & made Corbyn look almost good. Might have been a one-off and the Tories might succeed in using Boris well during a campaign - lots of charismatic, rabble-rousing speeches without challenge, while avoiding the likes of Neil & Marr & refusing to take part in debates with other leaders......but he also has the potential to unravel very badly & alienate a lot of people, whereas last time Corbyn surprised people by not being as bad as they were expecting.... 

[Wortho]

7 minutes ago, Tommo220 said:

If Boris, at a Tory Party conference gave a speech with a swastika behind him then yeh, i'd think he should be linked.  If Boris does an open air speech and happened to get papped with a person in attendance who had an i <3 Hitler t-shirt on, no i wouldn't think he supported him.

 

but, Back to Brexit....

... and hope the country gets the referendum result honoured

[Stadt]

Agree with @Finnaldo that Corbyn should have stepped down in 2017. Personally, I don’t find Starmer all that convincing but again he holds more appeal than Corbyn. Corbyn’s ego has partly lead to where we are now - Labour’s garbled position on Brexit has partially contributed the mess we’re in.

 

For such a ‘principled’ man Corbyn has been very egotistical in his tenure.

Edited 5 September 2019 by Stadt

[Brizzle Fox]

58 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

Huge majority????

Trying to work out whether it's maths or english that you're weakest on.

Nah I'd say history. 

[Alf Bentley]

50 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

It dawned on me the other day that if we have a general election, I'd like Corbyn to win and I'd like my party to do what they can to moderate a Corbyn led government. 

 

As a Soft Left Labour supporter, I'd be happy with that outcome. Particularly, as I assume that the Lib Dems would make electoral reform a key demand.

 

A Boris majority or Tory/Brexit Party/DUP majority is the nightmare for me. But a hung parliament in which either Labour or the Tories depended on SNP votes wouldn't be great either.

It's likely that the SNP will gain a lot of seats in Scotland - and would then make another independence referendum their conditions for propping up a minority govt.

I really don't want to see the UK break up but it could easily happen....

 

On wider policy, I'm not sure how much Lib Dem influence would be needed to moderate Corbyn's policies in govt, though there'd be no harm in it.

There will still be lots of sane Labour MPs who'd vote down any crazy policies introduced by Corbyn - even if a handful get deselected in the next month or two.

 

That's a heavy irony. There was all that talk of extremist Corbyn deselecting loads of Labour moderates....but none have been deselected yet, and I doubt many will be purged in the coming weeks.

In contrast, in one swoop the Tories have just purged 21 MPs, including some of the most experienced, highly-respected and least rebellious MPs in their ranks.

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, LiberalFox said:

It dawned on me the other day that if we have a general election, I'd like Corbyn to win and I'd like my party to do what they can to moderate a Corbyn led government. 

Which would be absolutely nothing at all.  They would be a complete utter disaster.  Name one sensible policy they have actually come out with (not throw money at it from the magic money tree - Javid is doing that already)

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

I also wonder how much of an asset Boris will be for the Tories? He comes across as entertaining, positive and amusing when he's not challenged or asked about detail....but he won't be able to avoid the latter during an election campaign.

What little I saw of the PMQs yesterday, I thought Boris came across really poorly & made Corbyn look almost good. Might have been a one-off and the Tories might succeed in using Boris well during a campaign - lots of charismatic, rabble-rousing speeches without challenge, while avoiding the likes of Neil & Marr & refusing to take part in debates with other leaders......but he also has the potential to unravel very badly & alienate a lot of people, whereas last time Corbyn surprised people by not being as bad as they were expecting.... 

I think Boris will be a lot better in an election that he is at PMQs and to he honest he definitely had an off day yesterday.  A hell of a lot of pressure on him this week.

That said he is not a detail man, and needs to be coached to have the key information to hand to support his general themes.  Politics is tough like that.

He can win an election, but as I always said whether he lasts much beyond brexit will depend on whether he can hold the party together, which so far he isn't.

[hackneyfox]

"We don't do things that way,that's a very left wing thing. Only a socialist could do that to his brother,only a socialist could regard familial ties as being so trivial as to shaft his own brother...I mean, unbelievable. Only lefties can think like that...they see people as discrete agents devoid of ties to society or to each other,and that's how Stalin could murder 20 million people"! - Boris Johnson's comments on the Miliband brothers in 2013.

[Tommo220]

12 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

"We don't do things that way,that's a very left wing thing. Only a socialist could do that to his brother,only a socialist could regard familial ties as being so trivial as to shaft his own brother...I mean, unbelievable. Only lefties can think like that...they see people as discrete agents devoid of ties to society or to each other,and that's how Stalin could murder 20 million people"! - Boris Johnson's comments on the Miliband brothers in 2013.

he'll have forgotten about that by now, and so should you!  

 

 

 

[The Horse's Mouth]

1 hour ago, LiberalFox said:

It dawned on me the other day that if we have a general election, I'd like Corbyn to win and I'd like my party to do what they can to moderate a Corbyn led government. 

all your party will do is jump back into bed with the Tories 

[The Horse's Mouth]

I know people hark back to Dave Miliband, but does make me wonder if he stood against Dodgy Dave would we have ended up with a hung parliament and that wouldve probably resulted in a referendum being put to the back shelf?

[Alf Bentley]

6 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I think Boris will be a lot better in an election that he is at PMQs and to he honest he definitely had an off day yesterday.  A hell of a lot of pressure on him this week.

That said he is not a detail man, and needs to be coached to have the key information to hand to support his general themes.  Politics is tough like that.

He can win an election, but as I always said whether he lasts much beyond brexit will depend on whether he can hold the party together, which so far he isn't.

 

Yep, I can imagine Johnson coming across well in some aspects of a campaign - charismatic flights of rhetoric & succinct "common sense" soundbites for the TV News.

 

But he'd be vulnerable whenever anyone (a top interviewer or political opponent or member of public) pinned him down with a difficult question that required a clear answer and/or knowledge of detail.

I'm sure he'll try to keep such encounters to a minimum. But May did that in 2017 (for different reasons - lack of charisma/fluency, not lack of detailed knowledge) and it didn't work well for her.

Plus, most other parties are mainly likely to be attacking him, not one another.

 

The Tories could certainly win a majority, but not as easily as some seem to think.

As a starting point, I'd expect them to win seats off Labour in the North/Midlands & possibly London/SE (high watermark for Lab in 2017)....but I'd expect them to lose seats to the Lib Dems in SE/SW & to the SNP in Scotland.

Every chance that the DUP could lose seats, too (several marginals & their Brexit stance alienates some of their natural support base)

 

There are also any number of unpredictable factors:

- Farage: currently saying he'll only form a pact with the Tories if they openly campaign for No Deal....which would lose them some votes to the Lib Dems/Lab

- The oddities of FPTP when it's more than a 2-horse race: e.g. Lab Remain voters switching to Lib Dems & handing seats to Tories....or Tory No Deal voters switching to Brexit Party & handing seats to Lab/LD

- What happens in some Tory seats where the MP has been purged, if they stand as an Independent Conservative, splitting the vote (e.g. Hammond & mates)

- What degree of tacit cooperation / tactical voting between Lab & LD? No chance of a pact, I'd say, but every chance that both will quietly focus on target seats, not their rivals' target seats - & tactical voting could be higher now more are PC-literate

- What happens to the youth vote? I'd assumed that would be less of a factor than in 2017, but there seems to have been a surge of young voters registering.....to vote for who? Unlikely to help the Tories, whoever it helps...

 

[The Horse's Mouth]

Funniest thing is, this country desperately needs a majority government and to obtain that we need a general election, but the only result I can see is another hung parliament and more likely a more divisive government 

[LiberalFox]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

As a Soft Left Labour supporter, I'd be happy with that outcome. Particularly, as I assume that the Lib Dems would make electoral reform a key demand.

 

A Boris majority or Tory/Brexit Party/DUP majority is the nightmare for me. But a hung parliament in which either Labour or the Tories depended on SNP votes wouldn't be great either.

It's likely that the SNP will gain a lot of seats in Scotland - and would then make another independence referendum their conditions for propping up a minority govt.

I really don't want to see the UK break up but it could easily happen....

 

On wider policy, I'm not sure how much Lib Dem influence would be needed to moderate Corbyn's policies in govt, though there'd be no harm in it.

There will still be lots of sane Labour MPs who'd vote down any crazy policies introduced by Corbyn - even if a handful get deselected in the next month or two.

 

That's a heavy irony. There was all that talk of extremist Corbyn deselecting loads of Labour moderates....but none have been deselected yet, and I doubt many will be purged in the coming weeks.

In contrast, in one swoop the Tories have just purged 21 MPs, including some of the most experienced, highly-respected and least rebellious MPs in their ranks.

That's a good point about Scotland and the SNP. Corbyn strikes me as the sort of leftie who doesn't like the UK as an establishment and would be quite open to allowing another independence referendum. In fact there was some talk he'd already agreed to another referendum in return for SNP support.  

[BlueSi13]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I'd take all long-term economic forecasts with a sack, not a pinch of salt, both the "disaster catastrophe" forecasts and your "things won't be too bad" forecast.

So many factors can affect our economy, many beyond our control (global economic trends, policies of other nations/blocs etc.) that long-term forecasts are a fool's game. Even forecasts over a couple of years are often way out.

 

I just come back to broad brushstroke stuff: we would be making almost half our trade significantly more difficult and/or more expensive. With a deal and an orderly Brexit, the negative impact might be manageable.

With a disorderly No Deal, there would be a sudden, severe impact - and the damage caused to our neighbours would also create a toxic atmosphere for the negotiation of any subsequent deal, which we'd need to avoid worse long-term impact.

 

Some sectors would suffer little impact - some exporters might even benefit from a cheaper pound (though Joe Public certainly wouldn't with inflated import prices).

But other sectors would be majorly impacted: e.g. tariffs on live animals or meat (a high-export sector) are about 40-80%, I think; border delays could make just-in-time production close to impossible (though I'm sure car plants wouldn't close down overnight).

There are then knock-on effects for local suppliers, spending by employees of firms impacted etc.

 

Yes, trade could be sought elsewhere, but that wouldn't materialise overnight (other nations are after it, too) & the major economic powers that might provide it (USA, China, India etc.) aren't going to offer easy deals without demanding conditions that will benefit their own nations. As a medium-sized nation, we cannot just invent new policy and impose it on others - it requires tough negotiation, often with nations/blocs that have bigger economies or populations than us.

 

Interesting that you list lower immigration as a problem "fixable by domestic policy", when lower immigration was supposedly one of the aims of Brexit. Are you going to tell Joe Brexit that we're going to increase immigration to boost the economy or shall I? Yet Brexiteers often claim that your next category of "lower productivity" is CAUSED by cheap immigrant labour.... Anyway, I can't see companies achieving higher productivity if the costs of importing machinery is higher (due to depreciating pound), if profit margins are squeezed by a slowdown & the public has less money to spend due to unemployment inching up, rises in prices of imported food/goods etc.

 

I'm no economic statistician, but that figure of 0.7% impact for loss of CM/SU & increased friction looks suspiciously low. I wonder how they calculate that? Loss of CM/SU & increased friction via tariff & non-tariff barriers is likely to make many firms uncompetitive on price, even non-viable in some cases, causing lost trade, lower investment & plant shutdowns over the longer-term.....0.7% impact looks optimistic.....

 

They're the same forecasts Alf.  But I wonder why you're now suggesting the forecasts aren't worth the paper they're written on when Brexiteers get criticised for doing the same thing.  

 

You're absolutely right about there being so many factors that can affect an economy, the article I linked to criticised these very forecasts as they do not take in to account the multiple levers an independent UK can pull to mitigate any risks as well as ignoring further problems in the EU.  

 

IMO no deal is not ideal and I'd prefer a sensible free trade arrangement that benefits both sides, I personally haven't met a leaver that truly WANTS no deal, but for some to go on as if no deal will result in war famine and pestilence is ridiculous.

[BlueSi13]

13 minutes ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

Funniest thing is, this country desperately needs a majority government and to obtain that we need a general election, but the only result I can see is another hung parliament and more likely a more divisive government 

By looking at the recent polling the only way to stop Boris is if there is a full Labour-Liberal Democrat electoral pact.  Considering the fundamental domestic policy differences between the two parties, that possibility remains remote in my opinion.

 

That also assumes there isn't a similar pack between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

3 hours ago, ealingfox said:

Any bloke who contracts Joseph to Jo and not Joe is a bloody weirdo.

 

Think the clue’s in the spelling.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

5 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

If Boris just doesn't ask for the extension then what can Parliament do about it?  They are playing a very dangerous game not allowing him to call an election.  Really they have take control away from the government and then refuse to allow the government to call a general election.  It is not only unprecedented it is completely undemocratic.  I personally don;t believe anyone other than the executive should be able to pass laws.  If you want to do something against a government you have to remove that government.  Truly shocking, and much more damaging than the lack of competence on either side of the house.

 

Can’t agree with this sentiment.

 

Boris no longer has the numbers in Parliament to control anything.

 

If Johnson doesn’t ask for an extension - he’ll look awful, will promptly receive a VONC courtesy of all the bridges he’s burned inside his own party and a temporary government could sort out the extension.

 

Legislation could then be laid down for an election (but not on BJ’s terms) and he’d find himself going into it as a rather discredited and spent force.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

4 hours ago, foxy boxing said:

really wanted another general election just so we could see loads of clips of Brenda from Bristol say "not another one". so really disappointed we don't get one yet!.

 

Journalists had turned up to her house - she told them to do one from an upstairs window.

[Bobby Hundreds]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Which would be absolutely nothing at all.  They would be a complete utter disaster. 

I mean, talk about project fear.  

[Voll Blau]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Which would be absolutely nothing at all.  They would be a complete utter disaster.  Name one sensible policy they have actually come out with (not throw money at it from the magic money tree - Javid is doing that already)

Making St George's Day a Bank Holiday.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

36 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

 

IMO no deal is not ideal and I'd prefer a sensible free trade arrangement that benefits both sides, I personally haven't met a leaver that truly WANTS no deal, but for some to go on as if no deal will result in war famine and pestilence is ridiculous.

 

A clear issue with ‘no-deal’ on the terms Johnson wants is that the final situation will only be fully known 11 days before it comes into effect.

 

That appears bonkers - how is anyone, businesses or otherwise, meant to make adequate plans for what will be a seismic  change in that short a time frame? 

 

Ok, you could make preparations beforehand - some stockpiling, registering for schemes etc, but that requires substantial extra time and cost deflected away from core business, for something that may not be needed if Johnson comes back with a deal.