Brexit!

[The Guvnor]

7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

"comprehensive" = "verbose"? 

 

Agree to disagree on your final point. For reasons stated - and, ironically, because the EU is in a fragile state - I reckon the chances of significant EU concessions were already close to zero.

Given internal EU strife, it simply cannot afford to be seen to crumble to unreasonable demands from the UK - and knows that, harmful as No Deal will be to them, it will be worse for the UK.

I reckon they'd reluctantly take the No Deal hit rather than crumble, showing weakness that could easily contribute to the collapse of the EU within a few years.

 

Also, if Boris is making progress in negotiations and has alternative proposals to the backstop, why doesn't he announce them? That would presumably put pressure on the EU & win public support.

The answer seems to be that it's because he's made no proposals and has  made no progress in negotiations....

Ha ha I would never be so discourteous to suggest you ramble on a bit.

 

I agree about the fragility of the EU and its a reality that the Eurozone is in crisis, that aside let's not lose sight that Barnier represents All of the 27 and there will be a disproportionate level of damage to some of those member states  so not agreeing to 'unreasonable demands' will be no comfort for those member states if we were to leave without a deal which is still a possibility.

 

 

[ealingfox]

Any bloke who contracts Joseph to Jo and not Joe is a bloody weirdo.

[Tommo220]

5 minutes ago, Beechey said:

"It’s been an honour to represent Orpington for 9 years & to serve as a minister under three PMs. In recent weeks I’ve been torn between family loyalty and the national interest - it’s an unresolvable tension & time for others to take on my roles as MP & Minister."

 

Doesn't want to choose between family and what he thinks about Brexit.

Indeed.

 

Christmas Dinner is going to be tense in the Johnson household this year......

[Alf Bentley]

20 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

This thread sums it up nicely.

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1168964684764131328.html

 

Essentially those analysts expect our GDP growth to be 0.5% lower per year then it would have done if we'd voted to remain.  So if we were originally projected to grow by 1.5%, we'd instead be growing at 1% per year.  But the key word there is growing.  If you accept those forecasts as gospel then the UK economy will have grown 5.5% less by 2030.

 

However the breakdown of that 5.5% drop is:

 

-1.8% - lower immigration (fixable by domestic policy)

-3.0% - lower productivity (fixable by domestic policy)

-0.7% - loss of CM/SU and increased friction...that's over 12 years by the way which equates to 0.055% pa or £1bn.

 

Those forecasts also don't take in to account the benefits of leaving such as independently creating trade, legal, business and immigration policies that serve to benefit the UK.

 

Not exactly the DISASTER CATASTROPHE HORRIFIC CLIFF EDGE CRASHING OUT that the remain camp have screaming from the mountain top.

 

I'd take all long-term economic forecasts with a sack, not a pinch of salt, both the "disaster catastrophe" forecasts and your "things won't be too bad" forecast.

So many factors can affect our economy, many beyond our control (global economic trends, policies of other nations/blocs etc.) that long-term forecasts are a fool's game. Even forecasts over a couple of years are often way out.

 

I just come back to broad brushstroke stuff: we would be making almost half our trade significantly more difficult and/or more expensive. With a deal and an orderly Brexit, the negative impact might be manageable.

With a disorderly No Deal, there would be a sudden, severe impact - and the damage caused to our neighbours would also create a toxic atmosphere for the negotiation of any subsequent deal, which we'd need to avoid worse long-term impact.

 

Some sectors would suffer little impact - some exporters might even benefit from a cheaper pound (though Joe Public certainly wouldn't with inflated import prices).

But other sectors would be majorly impacted: e.g. tariffs on live animals or meat (a high-export sector) are about 40-80%, I think; border delays could make just-in-time production close to impossible (though I'm sure car plants wouldn't close down overnight).

There are then knock-on effects for local suppliers, spending by employees of firms impacted etc.

 

Yes, trade could be sought elsewhere, but that wouldn't materialise overnight (other nations are after it, too) & the major economic powers that might provide it (USA, China, India etc.) aren't going to offer easy deals without demanding conditions that will benefit their own nations. As a medium-sized nation, we cannot just invent new policy and impose it on others - it requires tough negotiation, often with nations/blocs that have bigger economies or populations than us.

 

Interesting that you list lower immigration as a problem "fixable by domestic policy", when lower immigration was supposedly one of the aims of Brexit. Are you going to tell Joe Brexit that we're going to increase immigration to boost the economy or shall I? Yet Brexiteers often claim that your next category of "lower productivity" is CAUSED by cheap immigrant labour.... Anyway, I can't see companies achieving higher productivity if the costs of importing machinery is higher (due to depreciating pound), if profit margins are squeezed by a slowdown & the public has less money to spend due to unemployment inching up, rises in prices of imported food/goods etc.

 

I'm no economic statistician, but that figure of 0.7% impact for loss of CM/SU & increased friction looks suspiciously low. I wonder how they calculate that? Loss of CM/SU & increased friction via tariff & non-tariff barriers is likely to make many firms uncompetitive on price, even non-viable in some cases, causing lost trade, lower investment & plant shutdowns over the longer-term.....0.7% impact looks optimistic.....

 

[The Guvnor]

11 minutes ago, Tommo220 said:

Indeed.

 

Christmas Dinner is going to be tense in the Johnson household this year......

Fcuking hell you're not wrong.

Having been on 'I'm a celebrity get me out of here'  the parsons nose of the turkey will hold no fears for Stanley.😄

[Alf Bentley]

14 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

 

I agree about the fragility of the EU and its a reality that the Eurozone is in crisis, that aside let's not lose sight that Barnier represents All of the 27 and there will be a disproportionate level of damage to some of those member states  so not agreeing to 'unreasonable demands' will be no comfort for those member states if we were to leave without a deal which is still a possibility.

 

 

 

That's definitely true. Though most analysts believe that only Ireland would be hit anything like as hard as the UK. Some others (Netherlands, Germany etc.) would be hit harder than average, but still much less than us.

 

These disparities within the EU are presumably why they've just announced that they'll treat No Deal as a "natural disaster", allowing emergency funds to be distributed to those hardest hit:

https://www.politico.eu/article/commission-preparations-no-deal-brexit/

[Will1981]

46 minutes ago, Dames said:

One thing that really annoys me about leavers is their constant whining about upholding democracy but the reality is as a country we had the first vote on this in 1975 and the leavers lost even more convincingly so than the remain side in 2016 yet they have been doing nothing but complain and try to overturn the result ever since which they successfully did in 2016.

 

The reality is democracy allows for a difference of opinion and if it wasn't for democracy the leavers would never have been able to get the chance for another vote. As it stands its currently 1-1, we are now in a position where we now know more about the ramifications of a leave vote and the type of deal that would be on offer if the country were to take it. It would make most sense at this point to have a tie breaker referendum and put the matter to bed once and for all.

What a load of utter crap.

 

we joined the EU in 1975 and have been screwed and bullied by Europe for 44 years.

 

we were finally given a chance to vote on if we wanted to remain in Europe and the country voted to leave by a huge majority.

 

so if we leave this year and stay out for 44 years you can then call it 1-1 and we can have another referendum in 2063.

[Wortho]

29 minutes ago, Tommo220 said:

i couldn't care less what you read flower, i'm merely pointing out the agenda behind your post.

 

i'd suggest that they probably aren't supports of these "heroes" no, seeing as they oversaw some of the worst atrocities in recent times.  This is like saying that Boris is a massive fan of Mugabe.

 

Agenda? Can't other people have an opinion even if you don't like it petal? 

How do equate Boris to Mugabe, are you on crystal meth?

[Wortho]

17 minutes ago, Tommo220 said:

Indeed.

 

Christmas Dinner is going to be tense in the Johnson household this year......

You are a funny guy 

[hackneyfox]

3 minutes ago, Will1981 said:

What a load of utter crap.

 

we joined the EU in 1975 and have been screwed and bullied by Europe for 44 years.

 

we were finally given a chance to vote on if we wanted to remain in Europe and the country voted to leave by a huge majority.

 

so if we leave this year and stay out for 44 years you can then call it 1-1 and we can have another referendum in 2063.

Huge majority????

Trying to work out whether it's maths or english that you're weakest on.

[The Guvnor]

Let's try and keep things civil everyone, we all have different opinions but belittling posters just shows your own ignorance , and you will be banned or the thread will be closed. 

[The Horse's Mouth]

can't genuinely believe they didnt vote for it  , Labour's whole shtick has been wanting a general election, "we dont believe in pushing for a second referendum, we want a general election to let the public decide" has been the only consistent thing coming out of the party  

[Stadt]

Wonder how things would be different now had Burnham won Labour’s leadership contest? He’s certainly much more electable than Corbyn.

[The Horse's Mouth]

2 minutes ago, Stadt said:

Wonder how things would be different now had Burnham won Labour’s leadership contest? He’s certainly much more electable than Corbyn.

he's a right bellend though  , Burnham would've probably done Miliband numbers

[Dames]

18 minutes ago, Will1981 said:

What a load of utter crap.

 

we joined the EU in 1975 and have been screwed and bullied by Europe for 44 years.

 

we were finally given a chance to vote on if we wanted to remain in Europe and the country voted to leave by a huge majority.

 

so if we leave this year and stay out for 44 years you can then call it 1-1 and we can have another referendum in 2063.

 

It was less than 4% majority. We haven't been bullied and screwed at all, you've brought into the crap that the eurosceptic tories and the billlionaire owned press are peddling because they are scared of the European Tax Directive which will stop them from using tax havens and actually having to pay what they owe.

The EU has delivered things such as human rights, workers rights, paid holiday, maternity leave etc which your everyday people benefit from, benefits the tories want to strip away the first chance they get. The only people the EU will be screwing over is tax dodgers.

Edited 5 September 2019 by Dames

[Tommo220]

9 minutes ago, Wortho said:

Agenda? Can't other people have an opinion even if you don't like it petal? 

How do equate Boris to Mugabe, are you on crystal meth?

Its not really an opinion if you skew the facts to suit your outlook.

 

 

i linked two vastly different politicians because their political allegiance was aligned in a couple of areas - pretty similar to what you did with Corbyn and Mao....

 

[Finnaldo]

5 minutes ago, Stadt said:

Wonder how things would be different now had Burnham won Labour’s leadership contest? He’s certainly much more electable than Corbyn.

 

I feel Corbyn was required for Labour in 2015, he's brought forward important conversations around nationalisation and other policies that pulled them away from being a straight up 'Lib Dem+'.

 

However he shouldn't have lasted much after 2017, his fault was not standing down and naming a successor in the pursuing leadership to bring forward some of his policies but was a bit fresher with a lot less baggage. 

 

I think he's ultimately cost Labour since as a result.

[Wortho]

1 minute ago, Tommo220 said:

Its not really an opinion if you skew the facts to suit your outlook.

 

 

i linked two vastly different politicians because their political allegiance was aligned in a couple of areas - pretty similar to what you did with Corbyn and Mao....

 

So if Boris gave a speech with a banner of Social Democrat Adolf Hitler behind him you wouldn't think he supported him?

[Wortho]

Corbyn has ditched the Northern/Midlands Labour voters to embrace the Metropolitan elite.

[Finnaldo]

Just now, Wortho said:

So if Boris gave a speech with a banner of Social Democrat Adolf Hitler behind him you wouldn't think he supported him?

 

You're seriously not suggesting what I think you're suggesting are you?

 

Regarding that banner it was someone not in attendance not set up by him or on his orders.

 

I'm sure that there's member of National Action that support Johnson and his stance on minorities (or letterboxes and bongo bongo land as he calls them), that doesn't mean he's a Neo-Nazi. 

[Finnaldo]

2 minutes ago, Wortho said:

Corbyn has ditched the Northern/Midlands Labour voters to embrace the Metropolitan elite.

 

No he hasn't.

 

 

Lots of love,

 

A Midlands Labour Voter

[simFox]

2 minutes ago, Wortho said:

Corbyn has ditched the Northern/Midlands Labour voters to embrace the Metropolitan elite.

I think they've ditched him. I work with some ex miners, they've voted labour all their life and celebrated Maggie's passing. But they thoroughly dislike Corbyn. If they turn out, he's toast. Fortunately for him, most are increasingly apathetic.

[David Guiza]

5 minutes ago, Wortho said:

So if Boris gave a speech with a banner of Social Democrat Adolf Hitler behind him you wouldn't think he supported him?

[Footballwipe]

32 minutes ago, Will1981 said:

What a load of utter crap.

 

we joined the EU in 1975 and have been screwed and bullied by Europe for 44 years.

 

we were finally given a chance to vote on if we wanted to remain in Europe and the country voted to leave by a huge majority.

 

so if we leave this year and stay out for 44 years you can then call it 1-1 and we can have another referendum in 2063.

Absolutely buzzing to see this list. Please tell me, I'm so, so desperate to know. I mean after all, someone making such a claim would have evidence, a list, links and information to back up said statement?

 

I'll keep an eye out for it :)

[Stadt]

1 minute ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

he's a right bellend though

And Corbyn isn’t?