Brexit!

[Dames]

30 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

By looking at the recent polling the only way to stop Boris is if there is a full Labour-Liberal Democrat electoral pact.  Considering the fundamental domestic policy differences between the two parties, that possibility remains remote in my opinion.

 

That also assumes there isn't a similar pack between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party.

Conservatives have spent years and years trying to keep Farage out of power, he's been living in their heads rent free. This whole mess is because the Conservatives have been running scared of him, they won't get into bed with him now as its too late. Plus they rely heavily on moderate voters, their membership might have been infiltrated by former UKIP members but that doesn't cover their whole voter base. They won't want to align with him for fear of scaring them off.

 

We are in for years of uncertainty because no party is going to be able to command a majority, the hardcore Brexit voters will vote the Brexit party, hardcore remainers will vote Lib Dems and you'll have the traditional Labour and Tory voters too. I can't see any of them making a pact too soon because of the Toxicity around politics at the minute.

[BlueSi13]

Another General Election motion called for Monday.  If it doesn't succeed then there cannot be a GE before the 31st of October.

 

Considering Boris Johnson was elected by the Conservative Party members on a do or die pledge to get the UK out of the European Union by the 31st he will likely do one of two things IMO:

 

1.  Declare that what we are seeing in the House of Commons is a remainer coup and veto the extension request.

2.  Resign

[Nick]

27 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Another General Election motion called for Monday.  If it doesn't succeed then there cannot be a GE before the 31st of October.

 

Considering Boris Johnson was elected by the Conservative Party members on a do or die pledge to get the UK out of the European Union by the 31st he will likely do one of two things IMO:

 

1.  Declare that what we are seeing in the House of Commons is a remainer coup and veto the extension request.

2.  Resign

Let’s hope for option 2 then.

[The Horse's Mouth]

Not a chance he resigns

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Yep, I can imagine Johnson coming across well in some aspects of a campaign - charismatic flights of rhetoric & succinct "common sense" soundbites for the TV News.

 

But he'd be vulnerable whenever anyone (a top interviewer or political opponent or member of public) pinned him down with a difficult question that required a clear answer and/or knowledge of detail.

I'm sure he'll try to keep such encounters to a minimum. But May did that in 2017 (for different reasons - lack of charisma/fluency, not lack of detailed knowledge) and it didn't work well for her.

Plus, most other parties are mainly likely to be attacking him, not one another.

 

The Tories could certainly win a majority, but not as easily as some seem to think.

As a starting point, I'd expect them to win seats off Labour in the North/Midlands & possibly London/SE (high watermark for Lab in 2017)....but I'd expect them to lose seats to the Lib Dems in SE/SW & to the SNP in Scotland.

Every chance that the DUP could lose seats, too (several marginals & their Brexit stance alienates some of their natural support base)

 

There are also any number of unpredictable factors:

- Farage: currently saying he'll only form a pact with the Tories if they openly campaign for No Deal....which would lose them some votes to the Lib Dems/Lab

- The oddities of FPTP when it's more than a 2-horse race: e.g. Lab Remain voters switching to Lib Dems & handing seats to Tories....or Tory No Deal voters switching to Brexit Party & handing seats to Lab/LD

- What happens in some Tory seats where the MP has been purged, if they stand as an Independent Conservative, splitting the vote (e.g. Hammond & mates)

- What degree of tacit cooperation / tactical voting between Lab & LD? No chance of a pact, I'd say, but every chance that both will quietly focus on target seats, not their rivals' target seats - & tactical voting could be higher now more are PC-literate

- What happens to the youth vote? I'd assumed that would be less of a factor than in 2017, but there seems to have been a surge of young voters registering.....to vote for who? Unlikely to help the Tories, whoever it helps...

 

You are as usual bang on.  Not going to be easy at all, but Cummins is very very good at this, and I suspect they have been planning it from the start.

[Jon the Hat]

50 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Making St George's Day a Bank Holiday.

Populist nonsense which will reduce Britain's productivity further.  Try again.

[Bobby Hundreds]

1 minute ago, Jon the Hat said:

Populist nonsense which will reduce Britain's productivity further.  Try again.

It's one extra day off for hard working people, get a grip man. 

[Tommo220]

28 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Populist nonsense which will reduce Britain's productivity further.  Try again.

Policy of not bombing Syria was a pretty good one?

[Lionator]

42 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Populist nonsense which will reduce Britain's productivity further.  Try again.

Populist nonsense when it's Corbyn, patriotism when it's Johnson/Farage calling for it. 

[Jon the Hat]

27 minutes ago, Tommo220 said:

Policy of not bombing Syria was a pretty good one?

Clutching at straws now.

[hackneyfox]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Populist nonsense which will reduce Britain's productivity further.  Try again.

Well as the tories want us all to work till we are 75 I reckon we may need an extra day off.

[peach0000]

3 hours ago, LiberalFox said:

That's a good point about Scotland and the SNP. Corbyn strikes me as the sort of leftie who doesn't like the UK as an establishment and would be quite open to allowing another independence referendum. In fact there was some talk he'd already agreed to another referendum in return for SNP support.  

There should never be any concern about further referendums being offered on issues as if it goes the other way all it means is the will of the people has changed and should be listened to. As long as the result of the previous referendum has been enacted otherwise it’s a bit pointless. 

[Footballwipe]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Populist nonsense which will reduce Britain's productivity further.  Try again.

 didn't you move to Australia, a country of which all states have at least two extra bank holidays than the UK, and Victoria has 13! Don't go hating on bank holidays you lucky thing.

[Buce]

Jo Johnson.

 

Is this the first time a politician has resigned in order to spend less time with his family?

[Finnaldo]

Do the Lib Dem’s still have the most liberal outlook on marijuana legalisation?

 

Great policy even as a non-smoker.

[HappyHamza]

2 hours ago, BlueSi13 said:

Another General Election motion called for Monday.  If it doesn't succeed then there cannot be a GE before the 31st of October.

 

Considering Boris Johnson was elected by the Conservative Party members on a do or die pledge to get the UK out of the European Union by the 31st he will likely do one of two things IMO:

 

1.  Declare that what we are seeing in the House of Commons is a remainer coup and veto the extension request.

2.  Resign

Option 1 doesn't even exist. 

[HappyHamza]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Populist nonsense which will reduce Britain's productivity further.  Try again.

Britain has far fewer bank holidays than the majority of western countries, including the ones that are richer than us.

 

In 2017 the Telegraph compared bank holidays worldwide and only Mexico has fewer than the UK.

 

At what point did Britain's working people start being afraid to be paid properly, have a fair amount of time to themselves, or expect companies to pay a fair rate of tax?

 

[Legend_in_blue]

Anyone else find Bojo standing in front of a bunch of police recruits a little odd?  If he wanted to really appear completely genuine, why not wheel out the big red bus while they're at it? 

 

Can't understand why he's attacking parliament over giving power to Brussels to extend to when they like.  He says he's making good progress towards his deal.  Get your deal done and the no deal Brexit bill won't come to pass.  Why would anyone accept GE demands based on that?  Just wait it out, get your deal Boris and then take it from there.  Oh wait, but there isn't a deal is there Boris...?  Completely snookered himself and it's all rather amusing.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Not going to be easy at all, but Cummins is very very good at this, and I suspect they have been planning it from the start.

 

That all sounds about right. I wonder to what extent others have learned from the tactics employed by the Vote Leave campaign (targeting via social media etc.)?

Though Labour ran a surprisingly good campaign in 2017 - successfully staging events that would attract local media coverage etc.

 

Assuming an election happens in the next couple of months (which I do assume), it certainly won't be boring....where the hell we'll end up, though, I've little idea.

[The Guvnor]

 

 

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/05/boris-johnson-election-brexit-delay-extension?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQEKAFwAQ%3D%3D#aoh=15677065294069&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fcommentisfree%2F2019%2Fsep%2F05%2Fboris-johnson-election-brexit-delay-extension

[LiberalFox]

56 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Do the Lib Dem’s still have the most liberal outlook on marijuana legalisation?

 

Great policy even as a non-smoker.

Current policy is (from the website):

 

"Break the grip of the criminal gangs and protect young people by introducing a legal, regulated market for cannabis. We would introduce limits on potency and permit cannabis to be sold through licensed outlets to adults over the age of 18."

 

Not sure what other party's policies are.

[Wymsey]

When will we know whether Brexit will be a 'success' or not?

Am personally fearing another recession is going to happen, due to this vote outcome.

[Jimothy]

13 minutes ago, Wymeswold fox said:

When will we know whether Brexit will be a 'success' or not?

Am personally fearing another recession before is going to happen, due to this vote outcome.

3 and a half years ago. It's not a success.

[The Guvnor]

34 minutes ago, Wymeswold fox said:

When will we know whether Brexit will be a 'success' or not?

Am personally fearing another recession before is going to happen, due to this vote outcome.

Honestly doubt it will ever happen now, was always going to be difficult with a pro remain Parliament .

It has been suggested though if the government refuse to ask for an extension ie Boris resigns and he suggests that the queen asks Corbyn to sign for the extension what Corbyn would then do.

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Wymeswold fox said:

When will we know whether Brexit will be a 'success' or not?

Am personally fearing another recession before is going to happen, due to this vote outcome.

In 50 years, like Communism.

 

And like Communism, if it's not a success, it'll be because it wasn't "real Brexit".