Starmer Next Labour Leader

[Guest MattP]

Weird to think that had Remain won the referendum, tomorrow would actually be General Election day and we would be voting on what I assume would be Cameron/Corbyn/Farage/Farron race, no idea what the consequences would have been.

[Kopfkino]

54 minutes ago, MattP said:

Weird to think that had Remain won the referendum, tomorrow would actually be General Election day and we would be voting on what I assume would be Cameron/Corbyn/Farage/Farron race, no idea what the consequences would have been.

Corbyn would have been long gone, the 2017 election was the only thing that kept him around so long. Cameron himself said that he'd stand down before 2020 so suspect it would have been Osborne/May/Boris or whoever else might have emerged as a leading contender. 

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Corbyn would have been long gone, the 2017 election was the only thing that kept him around so long. Cameron himself said that he'd stand down before 2020 so suspect it would have been Osborne/May/Boris or whoever else might have emerged as a leading contender. 

Would they have managed to get rid of him though? The membership had no desire to get rid of Corbyn at all.

 

Tory leader would have been interesting. I think that emergency budget threat destroyed Osborne whatever happened with the ref result - probably would be May or Boris.

 

Farage might have been polling big numbers with a tight leave loss, SNP a good example what can happen in that situation.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Just when I thought we were getting somewhere

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Just when I thought we were getting somewhere

Ireland and The Troubles was a far more complex (and filthy) situation than many on both sides make it out to be tbh.

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Ireland and The Troubles was a far more complex (and filthy) situation than many on both sides make it out to be tbh.

Oh without a doubt, I just think posting something as stupid as that (on either side) is ridiculous. That's the official page of the young (14-26) Labour members for crying out loud.

[leicsmac]

4 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Oh without a doubt, I just think posting something as stupid as that (on either side) is ridiculous. That's the official page of the young (14-26) Labour members for crying out loud.

Yeah, it's an example of the reductive thought I was hinting at, perhaps I should have been clearer there.

 

The more I find out about the antipathy on each side, the more a bloody miracle the GFA seems.

[Voll Blau]

11 hours ago, MattP said:

Would they have managed to get rid of him though? The membership had no desire to get rid of Corbyn at all.

 

Tory leader would have been interesting. I think that emergency budget threat destroyed Osborne whatever happened with the ref result - probably would be May or Boris.

 

Farage might have been polling big numbers with a tight leave loss, SNP a good example what can happen in that situation.

I doubt it. That's the major difference between the attitudes of Labour and the Tories towards leadership. Benefit of the doubt and sentimentality count a whole lot more in the former, both from membership and to a lesser extent the PLP, whereas the latter will make any change at the top they deem necessary because retention (or resumption) of power is always their primary focus. I'd argue it's the party's whole raison d'être actually.

[Mike Oxlong]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/06/bombastic-boris-meets-his-match-in-forensic-starmer-at-pmqs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

Although I saw it as a boring goalless draw even The Guardian are scoring a victory to Keir in yesterday’s PMQ’s 

 

 

 

[Kopfkino]

13 hours ago, MattP said:

Would they have managed to get rid of him though? The membership had no desire to get rid of Corbyn at all.

 

Tory leader would have been interesting. I think that emergency budget threat destroyed Osborne whatever happened with the ref result - probably would be May or Boris.

 

Farage might have been polling big numbers with a tight leave loss, SNP a good example what can happen in that situation.

By 2018 I think so, part of the problem was the moderates were both too limp in their efforts and too quick, they ended up with Owen Smith and Angela Eagle pushing it, it wasn't a great alternative. The 2016 contest was a result of the referendum so seems reasonable to assume that doesn't happen. You needed someone to take the long view and position themselves to get members on side gradually, as Starmer basically did with his approach to Brexit. 

 

The Labour Party just couldn't have survived and without 2017, Corbyn wouldn't have been able to embolden himself quite as much as he did. It would have either been a proper breakaway or change of leadership imo. 

 

Of course Osborne stood no chance after the ref you're right. Idk how it would have panned out for Gove and Boris leading the losers. I'm not sure the party would have dealt particularly well with the internal division so who knows.

 

I do think, with subsequent events, a remain vote would have been a boon for the UK's standing in the world. Macron and Cameron would have got on relatively well. With the US stepping back from the world, a strong relationship between the UK and France could have been quite powerful. 

 

[Guest MattP]

Angela Eagle's leadership run, christ. Looked like she was about to burst into tears at any point throughout it.

 

I remember her on TV and being asked "Why will you beat Theresa May?" and she replied "Because she's a Tory". At they had the good sense to get rid of her but then replaced it with the make version of her in Owen Smith - a bloke who got upset over a joke saying the Severn bridge connected Wales to the New World.

 

So much mental shit happened over the last five years I've forgotten a lot of it.

[Guest MattP]

11 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

I doubt it. That's the major difference between the attitudes of Labour and the Tories towards leadership. Benefit of the doubt and sentimentality count a whole lot more in the former, both from membership and to a lesser extent the PLP, whereas the latter will make any change at the top they deem necessary because retention (or resumption) of power is always their primary focus. I'd argue it's the party's whole raison d'être actually.

Probably why it's the most successful political party in the World - can't do a thing unless you are in power.

 

Tory members are far more educated on the nuance of politics as well - they are pretty good at picking election winners (forget the Blair years as he was unbeatable) as Cameron and Boris have shown. Labour members are the pits at it, one winner now selected born in the last century by the time of the next election. If the Labour membership was a dog a vet would put it down.

[The whole world smiles]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Probably why it's the most successful political party in the World - can't do a thing unless you are in power.

 

Tory members are far more educated on the nuance of politics as well - they are pretty good at picking election winners (forget the Blair years as he was unbeatable) as Cameron and Boris have shown. Labour members are the pits at it, one winner now selected born in the last century by the time of the next election. If the Labour membership was a dog a vet would put it down.

Out of interest in the last 30 years who do you think should they should have elected leader and didn't to have got into power?

 

It's all well and good blaming the members but with a incredibly hostile press even to soft left candidates like Kinnock or Milliband (remember red ed?!) and the loss of Scotland to the nationalist it's very difficult to see a path Into power for labour or really see where they could have won elections in the past, certainly in my lifetime. Possible Yvette cooper for Corbyn in 2015, is the one but after the Gordon Brown, ed Milliband defeats and the Iraq war it's hard to blame the membership for wanting a break from the usual former blair minester mob. 

 

This go round I think it's widely regarded that Keir was the most electable of all the candidates and they voted for him. So the members did the right thing this time, However he has absolutely no chance at the next election. I mean where is he going to get the 150 seats he needs from?

 

 

Edited 7 May 2020 by The whole world smiles

[Guest MattP]

7 hours ago, The whole world smiles said:

Out of interest in the last 30 years who do you think should they should have elected leader and didn't to have got into power?

 

It's all well and good blaming the members but with a incredibly hostile press even to soft left candidates like Kinnock or Milliband (remember red ed?!) and the loss of Scotland to the nationalist it's very difficult to see a path Into power for labour or really see where they could have won elections in the past, certainly in my lifetime. Possible Yvette cooper for Corbyn in 2015, is the one but after the Gordon Brown, ed Milliband defeats and the Iraq war it's hard to blame the membership for wanting a break from the usual former blair minester mob. 

 

This go round I think it's widely regarded that Keir was the most electable of all the candidates and they voted for him. So the members did the right thing this time, However he has absolutely no chance at the next election. I mean where is he going to get the 150 seats he needs from?

Burnham, David Miliband or Balls in 2010. Literally any of the others in 2015 tbh, they deserve all the abuse they get for making Jeremy Corbyn leader though, a fringe protestor from the backbenches whose outlook on the World is warped to put it nicely. It should take the Labour years to recover from that.

 

The longer time goes on the weirder it gets - foreword for a antisemitic book, claimed he didn't read it. Anti semitic mural, claimed he didn't look at it properly, wreath laying, present but didn't get what was going on after changing his story three times.

 

He basically admitted time and time again he was a complete moron who missed everything that happened yet still was prepared to ask us to make him PM.

 

Last paragraph there is spot on - I honestly don't know where Labour goes now, finished in Scotland and even Blair in 97 crawled over the line in England for a majority.

 

The only hope they have at the minute is cobbling together a coalition with nationalists and while the remains so the more likely the English will vote not to let them do it 

[Bilo]

Just Starmer parking tanks on the Tory lawn here.

 

The difference in his and Corbyn's communications team is night and day.

[Lionator]

36 minutes ago, MattP said:

Burnham, David Miliband or Balls in 2010. Literally any of the others in 2015 tbh, they deserve all the abuse they get for making Jeremy Corbyn leader though, a fringe protestor from the backbenches whose outlook on the World is warped to put it nicely. It should take the Labour years to recover from that.

 

The longer time goes on the weirder it gets - foreword for a antisemitic book, claimed he didn't read it. Anti semitic mural, claimed he didn't look at it properly, wreath laying, present but didn't get what was going on after changing his story three times.

 

He basically admitted time and time again he was a complete moron who missed everything that happened yet still was prepared to ask us to make him PM.

 

Last paragraph there is spot on - I honestly don't know where Labour goes now, finished in Scotland and even Blair in 97 crawled over the line in England for a majority.

 

The only hope they have at the minute is cobbling together a coalition with nationalists and while the remains so the more likely the English will vote not to let them do it 

I suppose in a horribly twisted way, a global pandemic is perhaps going to play into labours hands. For example if the tories choose austerity Mark 2 to get us out of this, then there’s a good chance that they throw away the advantage of the ‘northern wall’. It is difficult though, I can’t see Boris sustaining 50% in the polls but to really eat into a 16-18 point deficit in the polls looks impossible. 
 

However 4 and a half years is an awful long time as we’ve seen in the past 4 and a half years. 

[The whole world smiles]

57 minutes ago, MattP said:

Burnham, David Miliband or Balls in 2010. Literally any of the others in 2015 tbh, they deserve all the abuse they get for making Jeremy Corbyn leader though, a fringe protestor from the backbenches whose outlook on the World is warped to put it nicely. It should take the Labour years to recover from that.

 

The longer time goes on the weirder it gets - foreword for a antisemitic book, claimed he didn't read it. Anti semitic mural, claimed he didn't look at it properly, wreath laying, present but didn't get what was going on after changing his story three times.

 

He basically admitted time and time again he was a complete moron who missed everything that happened yet still was prepared to ask us to make him PM.

 

Last paragraph there is spot on - I honestly don't know where Labour goes now, finished in Scotland and even Blair in 97 crawled over the line in England for a majority.

 

The only hope they have at the minute is cobbling together a coalition with nationalists and while the remains so the more likely the English will vote not to let them do it 

Baring in mind all of those would have been fighting a general election after the Scottish independence vote and would have lost scotland even if they were offering free iron bru in their manifestos it's very difficult for me to see how Ed balls or David Milliband would have won an election especially on the back of Gordon brown only getting 29% of the vote in 2010.

 

With regards to Corbyn as leader I wouldn't say it's the result of a stupid membership more a battle for the ideological soul of the party. Labour was set up as a socialist, trade unionist party, That has at times particular recently swung to center for electability. Blair did it well, Kinnock and brown less so. If it's impossible for them to win from the centre any more as elections have proved can you blame them for cracking out the crusty old socialist who probably represents a lot of of where the membership is at in terms of austerity and nationalisation.

 

From the outside looking in it seems a lot more black and white with the conservatives. Tory MPs and members believe in the individual over the state, a strong business led economy creating wealth for the country and open markets. So with the exception of brexit it's a pretty easy decision in picking a leader- pick that seems the most electable.

Edited 8 May 2020 by The whole world smiles

[Nick]

PMQ’s the other day - I simply thought that it was day 1 of building a case and feeding out the rope by Starmer.

 

He’s playing the long game. Remain respectful. Ask questions, record the answers and only drill down on areas where there is later rope to hang your opponent.

 

He knows he’s only going to get mainly rhetoric, diversion and bluster from Boris and he doesn’t need to be seen as disrespectful and causing problems during a crisis - something Corbyn never grasped. His job is to hold the government to account and if he wants to be PM he needs to be seen to be doing exactly that with consistency and while doing so both demonstrate he is and appears to be the smarter man. He’ll probably achieve that too.

Edited 8 May 2020 by Swan Lesta

[Kopfkino]

Anyone else equally as sad as me to have the 2010 election coverage on in the background today?

[Guest MattP]

6 hours ago, Lionator said:

I suppose in a horribly twisted way, a global pandemic is perhaps going to play into labours hands. For example if the tories choose austerity Mark 2 to get us out of this, then there’s a good chance that they throw away the advantage of the ‘northern wall’. It is difficult though, I can’t see Boris sustaining 50% in the polls but to really eat into a 16-18 point deficit in the polls looks impossible. 
 

However 4 and a half years is an awful long time as we’ve seen in the past 4 and a half years. 

It's possible - but the banking crisis should also have seen a golden era for the left and we saw how that turned out.

 

Starmers biggest problem is leave voters, very few are going to vote for him, the Labour commentarist seems to have convinced themselves this won't matter but I don't think they could be more wrong. 

 

Trust is huge in politics and so many people won't forget what Starmer did last year.

 

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

Anyone else equally as sad as me to have the 2010 election coverage on in the background today?

I'm recording it so that makes me even worse, they are great to watch though, seeing the old faces and seeing who is still around is fantastic.

 

They've got a few on over the next month or so, I'm looking forward to watching 1997 again - I watched it and cheered a Labour government coming in. Can't see that happening again

[Guest MattP]

6 hours ago, The whole world smiles said:

From the outside looking in it seems a lot more black and white with the conservatives. Tory MPs and members believe in the individual over the state, a strong business led economy creating wealth for the country and open markets. So with the exception of brexit it's a pretty easy decision in picking a leader- pick that seems the most electable.

Open markets aren't as popular as they used to be among Conservatives.

 

I've said this before but there is no desire anymore among the Tory grassroots for fiscal responsibility, it's more "Labour are going to spend a shitload anyway so we may as well".

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

Anyone else equally as sad as me to have the 2010 election coverage on in the background today?

Haha ffs  First two guests after the exit poll are Mandelson and May.

 

Theresa May says "A government that loses it's majority has to go" 

 

How did nobody pick that line up three years ago?

 

Mandelson also says "strong and stable - now we've got Andrew Neil interviewing Bruce Forsyth....this is some mental shit.

 

 

Edited 8 May 2020 by MattP

[Guest MattP]

"We feared the worst from the polling, but if we are down to 258 seats, at least it can't get much worse for the Labour party than this".

 

[Lionator]

50 minutes ago, MattP said:

Open markets aren't as popular as they used to be among Conservatives.

 

I've said this before but there is no desire anymore among the Tory grassroots for fiscal responsibility, it's more "Labour are going to spend a shitload anyway so we may as well".

Which is fine by me. A Boris Johnson led Conservative party is going to be relatively centrist when it comes to social policy (to the surprise of some I'm sure), it's their ultra capitalist economic policy which scares me so that would give me hope! 

 

56 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's possible - but the banking crisis should also have seen a golden era for the left and we saw how that turned out.

 

Starmers biggest problem is leave voters, very few are going to vote for him, the Labour commentarist seems to have convinced themselves this won't matter but I don't think they could be more wrong. 

 

Trust is huge in politics and so many people won't forget what Starmer did last year.

 

Well he's definitely playing the patriotism card at the moment. I think his first two challenges are anti semitism and trying to remove the anti-british sentiment of Corbyn and momentum which I think he's started doing especially over the past 24 hours. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Why is Starmer getting abuse for making sure his daughter wasn't on camera? Have I missed something? Seems to have been blown way out of proportion?