Starmer Next Labour Leader

[Mike Oxlong]

Just now, urban.spaceman said:

But is he kinder and gentler?

The face of kinder ?

[Mike Oxlong]

3 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Never said it was.  

 

I was commenting on the fact that I've seen some online heralding him as the Prime Minister in-waiting based on a couple of PMQ's where he has had a complete open goal.

 

He is neither winning nor losing in my eyes.  Until he actually steps forward and lays out in detail what he'd be doing DIFFERENTLY during such a crisis I can't pass judgement either way.  

People are probably going over the top now because the opposition has been such a shitshow for years 

[StanSP]

4 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Never said it was.  

 

I was commenting on the fact that I've seen some online heralding him as the Prime Minister in-waiting based on a couple of PMQ's where he has had a complete open goal.

 

He is neither winning nor losing in my eyes.  Until he actually steps forward and lays out in detail what he'd be doing DIFFERENTLY during such a crisis I can't pass judgement either way.  

Fair enough! 

 

I think he's showing promise in that case then. His attitude, his approach, his professionalism. 

 

The other thing to factor in is the fact we've been used to Corbyn who wasn't especially great. So having someone this good is refreshing! 

[martyn]

18 minutes ago, StriderHiryu said:

You can tell why he was an extremely successful lawyer and it's definitely a very strong point of his.

 

Is he charismatic enough to be a leader, and to appeal to those outside of London? He has a much better chance than Corbyn but I can't help but feel he won't quite connect with the masses. It could be put right though with a sensible campaign and the Tories are trying their best to give him a chance it seems.

His "death by a thousand cuts" strategy is a good one. Whilst no-one pays attention to PMQ's in isolation, these sessions are helping him construct a narrative.

 

If he can make that narrative speak for itself, that'll be key as he doesn't have the charisma which is valued by those who want their politicians to be performing seals.

Edited 13 May 2020 by martyn

[StriderHiryu]

1 minute ago, martyn said:

His "death by a thousand" cuts strategy is a good one. Whilst no-one pays attention to PMQ's in isolation, these sessions are helping him construct a narrative and story off the back of it. 

 

If he can make that narrative speak for itself, that'll be key as he doesn't have the charisma which is valued by those who want their politicians to be performing seals.

Yep it's a classic legal strategy. If you are in for the long haul on a long and complex case, it's not about winning a single exchange, it's about consistently poking holes in the opposition's case over and over. I think it's also smart to go this way because right now if he was too aggressive it could backfire in a way that the Democrats in America faced when they impeached Trump. It could seem like he's trying to spin things politically at a time when the country is in dire straights. It's better for now to be seen to try and do the best for the country whilst subtly reminding everyone that the current government are hopelessly failing at their basic duties. Then next year when the worst of the virus is behind us (hopefully!) they turn the screw with hard-hitting questions as to why key blunders happened in the first place. If they haven't got already, I would expect some major casualties next year like Matt Hancock and co as fall men. Then mop up in the delayed local elections and possibly even look to strike a vote of no confidence, though this latter point I think is unlikely in the short-term.

 

The thing is, that would work for a legal case but not necessarily in the House of Commons. But it's a lot better than what Corbyn had to offer. I think it will come down to how charismatic he can come across to people outside of London. There is no doubt we are setup for some real hardships over the next few years and that will prime the populace of the country to think about an alternative. But will the country take it? They tend to prefer the devil they know...

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, StriderHiryu said:

Yep it's a classic legal strategy. If you are in for the long haul on a long and complex case, it's not about winning a single exchange, it's about consistently poking holes in the opposition's case over and over. I think it's also smart to go this way because right now if he was too aggressive it could backfire in a way that the Democrats in America faced when they impeached Trump. It could seem like he's trying to spin things politically at a time when the country is in dire straights. It's better for now to be seen to try and do the best for the country whilst subtly reminding everyone that the current government are hopelessly failing at their basic duties. Then next year when the worst of the virus is behind us (hopefully!) they turn the screw with hard-hitting questions as to why key blunders happened in the first place. If they haven't got already, I would expect some major casualties next year like Matt Hancock and co as fall men. Then mop up in the delayed local elections and possibly even look to strike a vote of no confidence, though this latter point I think is unlikely in the short-term.

 

The thing is, that would work for a legal case but not necessarily in the House of Commons. But it's a lot better than what Corbyn had to offer. I think it will come down to how charismatic he can come across to people outside of London. There is no doubt we are setup for some real hardships over the next few years and that will prime the populace of the country to think about an alternative. But will the country take it? They tend to prefer the devil they know...

The Tories have a majority of 80, what on earth would be the point of a no confidence vote?

 

Aside from that good post, you also recognise something many in Labour already appear to be forgetting - to win power you need to be seen to be offering a brighter future, you won't win an election just on the failures of the current government.

 

There was element of that thought process with the Tories in 2010 and that's probably why we ended up with a hung parliament. 

[LiberalFox]

Wonder if Starmer is going to be a bit like Kinnock. Got the party back in order and was "supposed" to win in '92 but didn't.

[StriderHiryu]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

The Tories have a majority of 80, what on earth would be the point of a no confidence vote?

 

Aside from that good post, you also recognise something many in Labour already appear to be forgetting - to win power you need to be seen to be offering a brighter future, you won't win an election just on the failures of the current government.

 

There was element of that thought process with the Tories in 2010 and that's probably why we ended up with a hung parliament. 

It would be *extremely* unlikely for it to happen. But if things really and truly get awful, and there is a massive swing the local elections it's possible. For the record I am talking about an almost biblical level of turnaround in voter confidence in the Tory party on a level we've never seen before. But the thing is, the whole Coronavirus pandemic is totally unprecedented and situations like this can result in unlikely turnarounds.

 

Labour will be targeting the next General Election as the battleground, but I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that we have one much sooner than expected. It's genuinely amazing (and sad) how badly the current government are doing during this pandemic. After delaying action initially and not locking down fast enough, I thought that initially they made a good recovery with the Furloughing scheme and Stay At Home messaging. But in recent weeks, the fiascos of testing, care homes, total deaths, PPE availability and malfunctioning, Boris contracting the virus, app not working, etc, etc are mounting up. Of recent it's felt like every move they've made has backfired.

 

 

Edited 13 May 2020 by StriderHiryu

[Bilo]

With Johnson being subjected to weekly punishment beatings, MPs like Peter Bone calling him out for the disastrously poor announcement on Sunday night and lack of adherence to procedure, falling personal ratings and Starmer refusing to fall into traps like calling for an extension to the transition period, you now know that Johnson is going to have the biggest fight of his political life.

 

Unlike Brexit, where his stock wouldn't have been harmed by anything other than a crushing defeat, losing this one will end his political career for good.  

 

The reality is that the Tories voted for Johnson to beat Corbyn, and he was exactly the right man to do it. His lack of attention to detail, weak substance and alleged laziness were more than offset by a deeply unpopular opposition leader who had no answer to his charisma, humour, wit and optimism. 

 

Unfortunately for Johnson, just as there are 'luxury players' in football, he's a luxury politician. He isn't the man you want at the helm when the shit hits the fan because he's built for the good times rather than the hard slog. Just as this made him exactly the right person to face Corbyn, it makes him exactly the wrong man to face Starmer. 

 

If the electorate starts to look at both and think about who's more on the detail, more likely to put in the hours, more likely to think before he acts and therefore better at the job of leading, Johnson will struggle. Poor local election results next year with gains for Labour and the 1922 Committee will start twitching. Trouble is, they kicked out most of the grownups before the election in favour of Brexiteer puppets. So if Johnson goes, it's either inexperienced Sunak or unpopular Gove.

 

2024 suddenly seems a hell of a way away.

Edited 13 May 2020 by Bilo

[Jon the Hat]

15 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Wonder if Starmer is going to be a bit like Kinnock. Got the party back in order and was "supposed" to win in '92 but didn't.

Exaclty this I think - he is a massive improvement over Corbyn, who would have been asking questions on behalf of Maggie in Oswestry about her Mum's care home instead of picking apart the shakey narrative of the Government.

[Jon the Hat]

9 minutes ago, Bilo said:

With Johnson being subjected to weekly punishment beatings, MPs like Peter Bone calling him out for the disastrously poor announcement on Sunday night and lack of adherence to procedure, falling personal ratings and Starmer refusing to fall into traps like calling for an extension to the transition period, you now know that Johnson is going to have the biggest fight of his political life.

 

Unlike Brexit, where his stock wouldn't have been harmed by anything other than a crushing defeat, losing this one will end his political career for good.  

 

The reality is that the Tories voted for Johnson to beat Corbyn, and he was exactly the right man to do it. His lack of attention to detail, weak substance and alleged laziness were more than offset by a deeply unpopular opposition leader who had no answer to his charisma, humour, wit and optimism. 

 

Unfortunately for Johnson, just as there are 'luxury players' in football, he's a luxury politician. He isn't the man you want at the helm when the shit hits the fan because he's built for the good times rather than the hard slog. Just as this made him exactly the right person to face Corbyn, it makes him exactly the wrong man to face Starmer. 

 

If the electorate starts to look at both and think about who's more on the detail, more likely to put in the hours, more likely to think before he acts and therefore better at the job of leading, Johnson will struggle. Poor local election results next year with gains for Labour and the 1922 Committee will start twitching. Trouble is, they kicked out most of the grownups before the election in favour of Brexiteer puppets. So if Johnson goes, it's either inexperienced Sunak or unpopular Gove.

 

2024 suddenly seems a hell of a way away.

Boris will have plenty of time to show his mettle once this blows over, when his attribute will be a lot more useful.  

 

I do think we need to face the fact that for at least a couple of weeks he, Hancock, Cummins and Sedwill were out of action to a greater of lesser extent, which we didn;t know at the time and cannot have helped.

 

I think now this question of how and why hospitals discharged elderley patients who in some cases have Covid symptoms to Care homes is going to be where a piblic enquiry ends up looking.  Very sad.

[Wortho]

It must have been a bit embarrassing for Sir Kier with the ECHR investigation into the labour party. 

[MattFox]

What happens in December counts for nothing if everything hits the fan over the next few months 

 

Major Won in April 1992 six months later Black Wednesday happened and he was effectively Finished.

 

If theirs sustained unemployment plus a recession and bad brexit deal theirs every chance the Tories will lose or at least by badly pegged back at the next election

 

 

[Jon the Hat]

Just now, MattFox said:

What happens in December counts for nothing if everything hits the fan over the next few months 

 

Major Won in April 1992 six months later Black Wednesday happened and he was effectively Finished.

 

If theirs sustained unemployment plus a recession and bad brexit deal theirs every chance the Tories will lose or at least by badly pegged back at the next election

 

More likley we see our shiny new chancellor making the tough calls on tax and pay for the coming two years, then cutting everything and making it all roses 6 months before the election declaring good time back again!

[Mike Oxlong]

2 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

 

What I really like about this is that it’s a clear message which says “we’re not going to let you get away with your bluster and inaccuracies any longer”. One would think that this might put Boris on guard to think more carefully about what he is actually saying. For too long he’s been allowed to get away with a cavalier approach to detail and the truth ? 

Edited 13 May 2020 by Mike Oxlong

[LiberalFox]

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Absolutely no idea why Sarah Woolaston even bothered with politics, she'd have been much more suited to a quango like PHE where she could nanny our lives into misery.

 

 

But again I'm not sure Thatcher could ever only be in one party. Whilst she didn't quite grip and try to revolutionise the whole party, she was not too dissimilar to Corbyn in trying to use an existing brand for the convenience of getting into government and a lot of the Conservative establishment was not initially keen on her. She really wasn't much like any other Conservative leader in her lifetime from Baldwin through to Heath. She was much more Gladstone than Disraeli so, whilst Section 28 was famously illiberal, she could easily have been a Liberal if an actual viable Liberal Party had been around. That she recast the Conservative Party to be synonymous with her and her ideas doesn't mean that's where she belonged initially, although in my opinion many Conservatives, and obviously opponents, mischaracterise her.

 

Anyway, if Thatcher belongs as a Conservative then so does Sam Gyimah, certainly wasn't a Lib Dem and it's a shame that people like him had to leave, think once Brexit is out the way the party will rue losing people like him.

What's your idea of a Liberal party? It's not surprising that the Conservatives have attracted various flavours of liberals over the years because if you want to achieve anything in politics you need to win and the Conservative party wins often in Britain. I find it hard to view Thatcher as a conservative because to me a conservative is someone who defends the status quo, wants to keep things as they are which is not something I associate with Thatcher. Two of the most successful politicians in post war British politics (Blair/Thatcher) were not "typical" of the ideology of their political parties. 

[Guest MattP]

20 minutes ago, StriderHiryu said:

It would be *extremely* unlikely for it to happen. But if things really and truly get awful, and there is a massive swing the local elections it's possible. For the record I am talking about an almost biblical level of turnaround in voter confidence in the Tory party on a level we've never seen before. But the thing is, the whole Coronavirus pandemic is totally unprecedented and situations like this can result in unlikely turnarounds.

 

Labour will be targeting the next General Election as the battleground, but I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that we have one much sooner than expected. It's genuinely amazing (and sad) how badly the current government are doing during this pandemic. After delaying action initially and not locking down fast enough, I thought that initially they made a good recovery with the Furloughing scheme and Stay At Home messaging. But in recent weeks, the fiascos of testing, care homes, total deaths, PPE availability and malfunctioning, Boris contracting the virus, app not working, etc, etc are mounting up. Of recent it's felt like every move they've made has backfired.

Sorry but I just can't see any of this happening, even if all that apocalypse occurred Boris would go quietly anyway, he'd have no intention of hanging around to be humiliated in a General Election.

 

But his party currently sits on 50% during a pandemic and his voting base is delighted, in addition to that the decision to leave the EU now looks perfectly timed given they'll most probably be a demand for more local supply chains after all this blows over, not to mention the EU itself could be in tatters.

 

I know a lot of Labour voters are excited at the minute but it's bordering on a little bit of insanity at the minute.

[Dahnsouff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

What I really like about this is that it’s a clear message which says “we’re not going to let you get away with your bluster and inaccuracies any longer”. One would think that this might put Boris on guard to think more carefully about what he is actually saying. For too long he’s been allowed to get away with a cavalier approach to detail and the truth ? 

Thought I read that No. 10 has responded and told him to not provide partial quotes?

[StriderHiryu]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

Sorry but I just can't see any of this happening, even if all that apocalypse occurred Boris would go quietly anyway, he'd have no intention of hanging around to be humiliated in a General Election.

 

But his party currently sits on 50% during a pandemic and his voting base is delighted, in addition to that the decision to leave the EU now looks perfectly timed given they'll most probably be a demand for more local supply chains after all this blows over, not to mention the EU itself could be in tatters.

 

I know a lot of Labour voters are excited at the minute but it's bordering on a little bit of insanity at the minute.

Leicester winning the title was 5000/1!

 

I wouldn't bet on an early election happening either, but these are unique times we are living in.

 

 

Edited 13 May 2020 by StriderHiryu

[Guest MattP]

6 minutes ago, MattFox said:

What happens in December counts for nothing if everything hits the fan over the next few months 

 

Major Won in April 1992 six months later Black Wednesday happened and he was effectively Finished.

 

If theirs sustained unemployment plus a recession and bad brexit deal theirs every chance the Tories will lose or at least by badly pegged back at the next election

But Major was already on his arse, he won a surprise slight majority that always had the potential to end up back in hung parliament territory and then he pissed off a significant proportion of his own base when he shoved through Maastricht. 

 

The Conservatives party is a united one now in the same way Labour was in 1997 - disagreement on policy isn't going to cause it to collapse.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, StriderHiryu said:

Leicester winning the title was 5000/1!

 

I wouldn't bet on an early election happening either, but these are unique times we are living in.

But where is the route to an early election? There simply isn't one.

 

If the Tories got 2% in the local elections they change the PM, a vote of NC just isn't happening.

[Mike Oxlong]

8 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Thought I read that No. 10 has responded and told him to not provide partial quotes?

Haven’t seen that and I would need to see the quoted passage in context before forming my own conclusion but regardless it’s a marker to say we’re going to look carefully at what you say which is something Corbyn never did. The No 10 response may be because Starmer has Boris bang to rights. If so I’d expect him to follow up. Once you have someone by the balls don’t stop squeezing till you get what you want. 

 

Edit - Part of the number 10 response is as follows “ in his letter the leader of the opposition concedes that he has not quoted accurately from the guidance”.
 

Is that referring to the same letter that @Voll Blau posted because I don’t see that concession myself 

Edited 13 May 2020 by Mike Oxlong

[Guest MattP]

30 minutes ago, Bilo said:

Unlike Brexit, where his stock wouldn't have been harmed by anything other than a crushing defeat, losing this one will end his political career for good.  

He's the Prime Minister

 

He's not going to carry on in politics after he leaves this position I very much doubt anyway, can you really see him as a obedient backbencher like May?

 

He's reached the peak of his profession and achieved what he had to do - his only decision now will be whether to stand in 2024 or hand over to Sunak (which I think he might do if he has made a success of the economic recovery).

 

Whenever he decides to call time I'd imagine he will go back to writing/journalism etc - I'd be amazed if he had a desire to continue in politics.

[BlueSi13]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Sorry but I just can't see any of this happening, even if all that apocalypse occurred Boris would go quietly anyway, he'd have no intention of hanging around to be humiliated in a General Election.

 

But his party currently sits on 50% during a pandemic and his voting base is delighted, in addition to that the decision to leave the EU now looks perfectly timed given they'll most probably be a demand for more local supply chains after all this blows over, not to mention the EU itself could be in tatters.

 

I know a lot of Labour voters are excited at the minute but it's bordering on a little bit of insanity at the minute.

You should check out Twitter...thousands are wanking themselves in to an early grave as we speak!  I suppose this is what five years of Corbyn does to people though!

 

We'll see what happens with the polls in the next few weeks but as you say, as things stand today, if a GE was held tomorrow the Conservatives would be predicted to make gains of nearly 40 seats.

 

As a side note it always amazes me how much damage losing Scotland has done to Labour chances of gaining power.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, BlueSi13 said:

You should check out Twitter...thousands are wanking themselves in to an early grave as we speak!  I suppose this is what five years of Corbyn does to people though!

 

We'll see what happens with the polls in the next few weeks but as you say, as things stand today, if a GE was held tomorrow the Conservatives would be predicted to make gains of nearly 40 seats.

 

As a side note it always amazes me how much damage losing Scotland has done to Labour chances of gaining power.

It's pretty much destroyed the chances of them winning a GE. So they need some sort of agreement with the nationalists - problem with that is the more that becomes obviously the less likely the English, the Welsh unionists and Scottish unionists will vote for them.

 

We'll see how good Kier is when the spotlight is on him and he's got to rule out a coalition with the SNP.