Getting brexit done!

[Alf Bentley]

Anyone got access to the FT? It's behind a paywall for me, but this piece is based on an FT report. It's by Stephen Bush and suggests Liz Truss hopes to slash tariffs on US food imports to get a US-UK trade deal.

Other sources claim that a quick deal is impossible.

 

"Never let a good crisis go to waste? The British govt is preparing to offer to slash tariffs on US food in a bid to strike a quick trade deal, Peter Foster and Seb Payne reveal in the FT. The package is being put forward by the Trade Secretary, Liz Truss, but is facing internal opposition from the environment secretary George Eustice, and Michael Gove, the de facto Brexit Secretary, who fear that lowering tariffs means British farms, with their higher welfare standards, will be unable to compete with US factory farms.  Those who want a comprehensive US-UK trade deal have two limited windows of opportunity. The first is that the Trump presidency may prove to be a one-term proposition, and it will be harder to strike a trade deal with a Democratic White House and possible Senate majority than currently. In addition to all the tricky fights about agriculture, services and market access  baked into any US-UK trade deal, a Democratic win in November, adds the perception in the Democratic party establishment that Boris Johnson is one and the same as Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro et al. The second window of opportunity is that while British political coverage is focused on the fight against the novel coronavirus, the political difficulties of signing a US-UK trade deal are less acute. If the Conservatives can't get a deal now, then those pressures are only going to grow. While this pandemic emerged from the Chinese markets, the other big pandemic risk factor is US factory farming. Swine flu and bird flu emerged from factory farms - in the end, neither of those novel influenzas proved as deadly as feared, but make no mistake: Whitehall's ancient fear of a new flu strain is not an unreasonable one, and the next new major pandemic may well emerge from a factory farm. The truth, of course, is just as a Sino-British trade deal is not going to shutter Chinese wet markets, a US-UK trade deal is not, whatever happens, going to shift US agricultural policy. Only domestic politics can change either of those things. But just as the government's pre-crisis position of relative openness to China on everything from Huawei to the London property market is going to be more fraught for the government in the future, the political challenge of striking a trade deal with the US is only going to rise - unless the government can sneak one past the radar during the time of lockdown".

[Dahnsouff]

Chlorinated Chicken for all 

[Spudulike]

Blimey, the Eurocrats are really determined to damage themselves to prevent a former EU member from being successful.

 

Cutting off their noses ??

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Spudulike said:

Blimey, the Eurocrats are really determined to damage themselves to prevent a former EU member from being successful.

 

Cutting off their noses ??

I genuinely lolled. 

[Beechey]

For anyone as sad as me, here's the UK's ~300 page draft treaty (CFTA) with the EU.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886010/DRAFT_UK-EU_Comprehensive_Free_Trade_Agreement.pdf

[Spudulike]

2 hours ago, Beechey said:

For anyone as sad as me, here's the UK's ~300 page draft treaty (CFTA) with the EU.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886010/DRAFT_UK-EU_Comprehensive_Free_Trade_Agreement.pdf

Can you summerize?  

 

I guess it boils down to we' re not going to follow your rules (unless we want to) and you can sling your hook elsewhere unless you agree to an FTA. 

[Beechey]

1 hour ago, Spudulike said:

Can you summerize?  

 

I guess it boils down to we' re not going to follow your rules (unless we want to) and you can sling your hook elsewhere unless you agree to an FTA. 

It leans very heavily on precedents set by other FTAs the EU has with other countries. I've only read summaries so far myself so haven't had the pleasure of a deep dive yet.

 

Edit: just quickly read a couple of key sections regarding environmental and labour standards, and it meets the non regression clauses the UK signed up to in the Political Declaration (PD) whereby the Parties agreed that standards should not be lowered to encourage trade. Weirdly the EU's position since passing the PD has changed from that to a form of consistent regulatory dynamic alignment, which was not mentioned as any part of the "level playing field" within the PD.

 

For example, Article 27.4 (1) states 

"The Parties recognise that it is inappropriate to encourage trade or investment by weakening or reducing the levels of protection afforded in their labour law and standards."

 

There is an identical clause for environmental standards as well.

Edited 19 May 2020 by Beechey

[Beechey]

Things getting Frosty with the negotiators. This is a bit scathing:

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886168/Letter_to_Michel_Barnier_19.05.20.pdf

[Innovindil]

14 minutes ago, Beechey said:

Things getting Frosty with the negotiators. This is a bit scathing:

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886168/Letter_to_Michel_Barnier_19.05.20.pdf

 

Some very valid points tbf.

 

 

[Spudulike]

2 hours ago, Beechey said:

Things getting Frosty with the negotiators. This is a bit scathing:

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886168/Letter_to_Michel_Barnier_19.05.20.pdf

Blimey, couldn't have put it better myself. Quite impressed actually. 

 

If the EU don't want to do a deal then I hope they have a good explanation to the Irish beef farmers. 

[Guest MattP]

11 hours ago, Beechey said:

Things getting Frosty with the negotiators. This is a bit scathing:

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886168/Letter_to_Michel_Barnier_19.05.20.pdf

Fantastic.

 

What a contrast between David Frost and Ollie Robbins, feels like we've got someone now prepared to call out the EU.

 

I like the fact we are going to make the negotiations public now, long overdue.

[Dahnsouff]

12 hours ago, Beechey said:

Things getting Frosty with the negotiators. This is a bit scathing:

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886168/Letter_to_Michel_Barnier_19.05.20.pdf

Edited 20 May 2020 by Dahnsouff

[Dahnsouff]

So Boris has said there will be custom checks between NI and GB, is this a semantic trick or is he actually saying they will ignore the Good Friday agreement?

(I thought that stipulated in law that there could not be any such check?)

[Alf Bentley]

54 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

So Boris has said there will be custom checks between NI and GB, is this a semantic trick or is he actually saying they will ignore the Good Friday agreement?

(I thought that stipulated in law that there could not be any such check?)

 

I don't think there is anything explicit about any customs checks in the Good Friday Agreement - only a commitment to remove military/security apparatus from the NI/RoI border.

 

It's more a matter of political realities.

 

Under the GFA, Irish republicans/nationalists accepted NI remaining part of the UK for as long as that was the wish of the NI majority.

In exchange, they got power-sharing in NI plus all sorts of cross-border NI/RoI & UK/RoI bodies & the demilitarisation of the NI/RoI border.

Customs didn't come into it because UK and RoI were under the same regime until Brexit.....but the open NI/RoI border symbolised this new relationship.....and will continue to do so under the Brexit deal.

 

The customs checks between NI and GB are also a matter of political reality/controversy, not legal stipulations, I think.

There's nothing to stop the UK effectively setting up checks between two bits of its own territory - and such checks already exist for some food & livestock etc.

But for similar symbolic - and economic - reasons, it's highly controversial with Ulster Unionists/Loyalists. Whether they'll do anything about it is another matter.....they haven't done much so far except express a sense of betrayal.

I think they were already quite clear that Boris was lying and there would be NI/GB checks. It was clearly written into the UK/EU Brexit agreement and even one of his own cabinet ministers (the previous NI Secretary?) had admitted this.

[Spudulike]

Nissan shifting production from Barcelona to Sunderland.

 

Is that despite Brexit ?? Can just imagine the media frenzy if it was the other way around. 

[Strokes]

25 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

Nissan shifting production from Barcelona to Sunderland.

 

Is that despite Brexit ?? Can just imagine the media frenzy if it was the other way around. 

Brexit aside, that’s bloody good news all round. Just what the country needs at the moment.

[Innovindil]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52900700

 

This just isn't the level of racism I voted brexit for. 

 

Good stuff though. 

[Finnaldo]

On 28/05/2020 at 15:11, Spudulike said:

Nissan shifting production from Barcelona to Sunderland.

 

Is that despite Brexit ?? Can just imagine the media frenzy if it was the other way around. 

 

19 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52900700

 

This just isn't the level of racism I voted brexit for. 

 

Good stuff though. 

Both great news really.
 

Obviously Nissan being a company that May set out assurances for post-Brexit which helped, although I can’t see that being applied to every single multinational company. Certainly very good news though, god knows what that area would’ve been like assuming an economic slump following Coronavirus and whatever level of exacerbation the full exit from the EU has. A very important moment for the North East. 
 

Would the Hong Kong law been passed in the EU? Probably would have took longer, and the EU do have a habit of remaining silent on issues, but I like to think it would have been passed either way. I’m glad it has though, the people of Hong Kong deserve better. 

[bovril]

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nissan/nissan-warns-uk-plant-unsustainable-without-eu-trade-deal-bbc-idUSKBN23A1DJ

 

Interesting that the same arguments keep going round and round and "leaving without a deal" is still used in many articles.

 

It appears that one does not simply get Brexit done. 

[Finnaldo]

9 minutes ago, bovril said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nissan/nissan-warns-uk-plant-unsustainable-without-eu-trade-deal-bbc-idUSKBN23A1DJ

 

Interesting that the same arguments keep going round and round and "leaving without a deal" is still used in many articles.

 

It appears that one does not simply get Brexit done. 

Well there goes my positive slant  
 

Obviously want to keep the May government deal they worked out whilst getting a preferential deal to operate in the EU still. Best of both worlds.

[bovril]

7 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Well there goes my positive slant  
 

Obviously want to keep the May government deal they worked out whilst getting a preferential deal to operate in the EU still. Best of both worlds.

Surely the May deal you're talking about was dependant on a close future relationship with the EU, which was what May wanted.

[Finnaldo]

7 minutes ago, bovril said:

Surely the May deal you're talking about was dependant on a close future relationship with the EU, which was what May wanted.

That’s very true. 
 

The fact they’ve gone through with keeping Sunderland open though suggests they must have talked to Johnson, surely? It’s going to be interesting either way.

[bovril]

Just now, Finnaldo said:

That’s very true. 
 

The fact they’ve gone through with keeping Sunderland open though suggests they must have talked to Johnson, surely? It’s going to be interesting either way.

I like to think that Number 10's bluster about refusing to extend the deadline and trading on WTO terms in the middle of the worst crisis since WW2 is just that, bluster. But I'm sure the Conservative party could think up a three word slogan to get them through that crisis still sitting at the top of the polls. Maybe 'Lose Your Job'. 

[Gordon the Great]

On 03/06/2020 at 12:01, bovril said:

I like to think that Number 10's bluster about refusing to extend the deadline and trading on WTO terms in the middle of the worst crisis since WW2 is just that, bluster. But I'm sure the Conservative party could think up a three word slogan to get them through that crisis still sitting at the top of the polls. Maybe 'Lose Your Job'. 

Or even "Back your Country"

[Finnaldo]

1 hour ago, Gordon the Great said:

Or even "Back your Country"

He does mate, hence why he’s critiquing government policy and the impact it has on the UK.

 

Disagree if you want, but your attitude on anyone who disagrees that the Tories are God’s gift stinks. Try less to discredit opinion’s with weird ‘Enemy of the State’ rhetoric and use the grey matter you were given to devise an actual argument.