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Strokes

Getting brexit done!

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18 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Obviously the virus has monopolised minds but it was interesting that EU talks got very little traction in the news this week. I'd expect that to continue virus or not anyway.

 

I'm sure that will continue at this early stage, but don't you think Brexit will get a lot more media prominence towards the end of the year, unless major success has been achieved? Or in June, if talks break down? (To a degree dependent on the severity & timing of the coronavirus impact)

 

18 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

 But what was most interesting was the UK came out of it with the upper hand politically in terms of coherence and setting the agenda which is where the EU excelled compared to the UK in Phase 1.

 

I'm curious as to why you say this. It seems like very early stages to me, with each side presenting its agenda, but unclear yet what compromises, if any, will be made or accepted on either side.

- EU wants a single, over-arching deal to cover everything (including fisheries) with the "level playing field" crucial in the trade part to guarantee no under-cutting of SM

- UK wants out of most joint projects, wants a series of individual deals, rejects any binding "level playing field" as a precondition for a trade deal & wants annual negotiations on fishing access

.....those seem like 2 different coherent agendas, neither of which has the upper hand yet?

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1 hour ago, Strokes said:

I said constituency because it’s an easier reference point for the referendum results but you don’t think regionally brexit opinions would vastly differ?

Surely 1508 is too small when you consider the vast differences of cities to rural, north to south, London to anywhere in England. Scotland Northern Ireland to England and Wales. 1508 just doesn’t seem far reaching enough to be to be taken seriously.

How do you prove a margin for error is accurate?

Not much when you control for demographics, geography is largely meaningless within England and Wales when it comes to Brexit. Yeah it changes in Scotland and NI and low numbers from these areas would be a weakness for the poll. I don't know how BMG have weighted or sampled for this poll but it wouldn't be overly difficult to build a representative sample.I'm not saying there wouldn't be faults in the poll, sampling errors are always a factor. Margin of error is a theoretical mathematical concept (1/√n) for which yeah real world polling will end up violating the assumptions to varying degrees but its a useful guide. And a good research company like BMG should be able to carry out a poll closer to the theoretical. If anything, sampling errors are probably more likely to leave out Brexit voters anyway.

 

But that's sort of irrelevant to why I interjected in the first place. It makes sense for people to think sample sizes like that are too low but if you've got a good sample (and I think its simpler to construct that with Brexit than just normal party politics) it's not so much a problem and that the fact people have changed their minds has an intuitive explanation.

 

 

59 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I'm sure that will continue at this early stage, but don't you think Brexit will get a lot more media prominence towards the end of the year, unless major success has been achieved? Or in June, if talks break down? (To a degree dependent on the severity & timing of the coronavirus impact)

 

 

I'm curious as to why you say this. It seems like very early stages to me, with each side presenting its agenda, but unclear yet what compromises, if any, will be made or accepted on either side.

- EU wants a single, over-arching deal to cover everything (including fisheries) with the "level playing field" crucial in the trade part to guarantee no under-cutting of SM

- UK wants out of most joint projects, wants a series of individual deals, rejects any binding "level playing field" as a precondition for a trade deal & wants annual negotiations on fishing access

.....those seem like 2 different coherent agendas, neither of which has the upper hand yet?

Yeah at the pressure points, I did mean to add that June around extension time it will get more coverage but its a largely technical process now rather than an explicitly political process by which you won't see huge slanging matches and deadlock in the Commons. As long as there's some kind of package that can be presented as a 'deal' then people won't take much notice as there'll be no theatre really.

 

Well the EU is at a disadvantage on coherence because the skinnier the deal the closer we end up to the UK's position . You have to consider coherence and setting the agenda together and the UK has largely set the agenda because I don't think anyone believes we're going to get near the association agreement that the EU desires but that, at least in the short-term, it will have to be something resembling a standard FTA to be added to which is exactly what the UK has stated as its desire. Now the UK's threat to walk away is politically credible its much harder for the EU. The EU is at a disadvantage on coherence because a skinnier deal (or no deal) is always going to end up closer to the UK's objectives than the UK's. Already, there's signs of movement on fishing from the EU because it's initial position is untenable. I'm only talking politically wrt negotiations, not whether the costs the UK seeks to impose on itself makes sense.

 

I think there's plenty of room for a deal anyway, but maybe I'm overestimating the EU's appetite for a bad deal just to keep the UK within its sphere and not rogue. For example, LPF (it amuses me that this has become the new thing people pretend they know all about when most us have a very basic understanding of the issue) will end up being conditional on market access and penalties will be incurred in terms of market access if the UK wants to diverge.

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Good to see this hard right Conservative government with a hard right budget straight out of the copybook of that famous hard right chancellor Gordon Brown

 

Also why is Jeremy Corbyn still there giving the response to this. The biggest set piece the government has which requires proper scrutiny and opposition and this joke of a politician who has consistently failed is still there failing

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Guest MattP
17 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Good to see this hard right Conservative government with a hard right budget straight out of the copybook of that famous hard right chancellor Gordon Brown

 

Also why is Jeremy Corbyn still there giving the response to this. The biggest set piece the government has which requires proper scrutiny and opposition and this joke of a politician who has consistently failed is still there failing

It's just so so weird to see him stood there three months after that drubbing. Embarrassing as ever at PMQS as well.

 

As I said at the time - looks like they aren't even taking it seriously. 

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12 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's just so so weird to see him stood there three months after that drubbing. Embarrassing as ever at PMQS as well.

 

As I said at the time - looks like they aren't even taking it seriously. 

Also who are the options for shadow chancellor (I don't understand why shadow chancellor isn't responding)? They're gonna have to be pretty damn good up against Sunak and atm I can't see many known options. 

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12 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Also who are the options for shadow chancellor (I don't understand why shadow chancellor isn't responding)? They're gonna have to be pretty damn good up against Sunak and atm I can't see many known options. 

 

It's standard for the Opposition Leader to give the initial response to a budget, isn't it? If so, DK why.....and Corbyn should be gone, anyway. Should be a temporary leader, as there was 

 

Options? Starmer might have been OK, but will presumably be leader. I could imagine Ian Murray doing a good job, but can't imagine him getting the post. Thornberry or Gardiner, if Starmer keeps some of the old guard? Or Yvette Cooper?

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2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

It's standard for the Opposition Leader to give the initial response to a budget, isn't it? If so, DK why.....and Corbyn should be gone, anyway. Should be a temporary leader, as there was 

 

Options? Starmer might have been OK, but will presumably be leader. I could imagine Ian Murray doing a good job, but can't imagine him getting the post. Thornberry or Gardiner, if Starmer keeps some of the old guard? Or Yvette Cooper?

Is it? Fair enough. I just remember Mcdonnell waiving around Mao's little red book but that may have been for something else. 

 

They could dress Yvette Cooper's husband as Yvette Cooper, that might be the best option tbh

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Guest MattP
35 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

It's standard for the Opposition Leader to give the initial response to a budget, isn't it? If so, DK why.....and Corbyn should be gone, anyway. Should be a temporary leader, as there was 

 

Options? Starmer might have been OK, but will presumably be leader. I could imagine Ian Murray doing a good job, but can't imagine him getting the post. Thornberry or Gardiner, if Starmer keeps some of the old guard? Or Yvette Cooper?

It is.

 

It isn't usual for them to bring a prepared speech and read it word for word like he did today without a single change during it.

 

Even to the point of calling Eleanor Laing, "Mr Speaker" lol

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Guest MattP

Who in the Labour party can do this now?

 

Alan Johnson might - I can't think of a single other. And he's not even in parliament. 

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8 hours ago, MattP said:

Who in the Labour party can do this now?

 

Alan Johnson might - I can't think of a single other. And he's not even in parliament. 

Tbf when labour released a manifesto with a heavy focus on improved infrastructure the Tories went apeshit about a magic money tree and told us it couldn't be done.  I'm glad they've found the tree and started harvesting it but let's not pretend this is a uniquely Conservative idea.

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23 minutes ago, bovril said:

Ahhhh Brexit.

 

We miss ya, ya old rascal. 

 

9 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Doesn’t quite seem the apocalypse it once was know. Damn you corona......:mad:

I do miss the old Brexit slanging matches. I was told for months in here that we were gonna die due to medicine shortages occurring because of Brexit. The reality is we're gonna die due to Coronavirus, so who's laughing now eh?

 

 

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Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

I do miss the old Brexit slanging matches. I was told for months in here that we were gonna die due to medicine shortages occurring because of Brexit. The reality is we're gonna die due to Coronavirus, so who's laughing now eh?

 

 

We're going to die from lack of a vaccine to Coronavirus due to delays caused by Brexit :ill:

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1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

I do miss the old Brexit slanging matches. I was told for months in here that we were gonna die due to medicine shortages occurring because of Brexit. The reality is we're gonna die due to Coronavirus, so who's laughing now eh?

 

 

The fact the is no medicine and there are no delays at the channel ports and we havent brexited as of yet. Probably no one. We get to re stock pile for brexit at the end of the year.

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19 hours ago, Toddybad said:

The article merely speculates - seems quite likely any separate regulatory measures for new vaccines, drugs would not apply to a CV vaccine if one is available in Europe. Interestingly, a team at Oxford University has been working on a vaccine for many weeks- and are ready to produce vaccines (with an Italian company) for clinical research:

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-02-07-oxford-team-begin-novel-coronavirus-vaccine-research

 

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