Getting brexit done!

[Alf Bentley]

57 minutes ago, bovril said:

All of those would suggest lying in some way. 

 

Yes - and they all presuppose some degree of tactical/strategic thinking.....which might be over-optimistic on my part, given Govt conduct in some other policy areas.

 

It might just be strategy-free bluster and bravado, preceding a realisation of how damaging No Deal could be - then another climbdown cunningly presented as a great national triumph for PR purposes.

That might be the best hope, frankly.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

On the other hand, The Telegraph say that Barnier is being sidelined and there's finally going to be some political intervention

 

Then again, Simon Coveney says that avoiding No Deal might be a lower priority for the EU now.......though, admittedly, he has an axe to grind just as the Telegraph does.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-nationalism-irish-foreign-minister-uk-b404487.html

 

"The foreign minister said some people in the UK were indulging in a "fantasy" that a trade deal was more important to Europe than the UK, adding that "the idea that actually a trade deal with the UK is going to be No.1 or No.2 or No.3 or No.4 on the priority list for the EU, in my view, is very unlikely". He said other issues like finalising the EU's own budget, reforming the Common Agricultural Policy, migration, and the coronavirus economic recovery would take precedence.

 

His warning comes after reports that EU leaders may not intervene in Brexit discussions at next month's EU summit in Brussels – a blow for those on the British side who want leaders to change course to facilitate a deal.

 

"I fear no deal. I mean from an Irish perspective, a no deal is really bad news; from a UK perspective, a no deal is equally a really bad news story. But for many countries in the EU, this is an important issue but it is not the priority like it was this time last year because Covid has changed a lot and many countries are now dealing with more immediate and fundamental issues," he told the newspaper."

[Alf Bentley]

Peston thinks Johnson is willing to risk No Deal because Cummings wants the UK to be able to use state funding to ensure the UK is a leader in new tech industries:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-07/the-reason-why-boris-johnson-is-jeopardising-an-eu-free-trade-deal 

 

"Because if the government of Boris Johnson has an ideology, it is that of Dominic Cummings and his Vote Leave crew. And Cummings's passionate conviction is that Johnson's government MUST have the discretion to invest without fetter in hi-tech, digital, artificial intelligence and the full gamut of the so-called fourth industrial revolution" [....] Who knew that the logic of Brexit would not only be a Thatcherite economic nationalism but a kind of state activism that used to be thought of as socialism?"

 

On another point, now that No Deal has been renamed "an Australian-type deal".....

Can we start referring to Lionel Messi having "an Australian-type contract" with Leicester City?

[Kopfkino]

13 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Then again, Simon Coveney says that avoiding No Deal might be a lower priority for the EU now.......though, admittedly, he has an axe to grind just as the Telegraph does.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-nationalism-irish-foreign-minister-uk-b404487.html

 

"The foreign minister said some people in the UK were indulging in a "fantasy" that a trade deal was more important to Europe than the UK, adding that "the idea that actually a trade deal with the UK is going to be No.1 or No.2 or No.3 or No.4 on the priority list for the EU, in my view, is very unlikely". He said other issues like finalising the EU's own budget, reforming the Common Agricultural Policy, migration, and the coronavirus economic recovery would take precedence.

 

His warning comes after reports that EU leaders may not intervene in Brexit discussions at next month's EU summit in Brussels – a blow for those on the British side who want leaders to change course to facilitate a deal.

 

"I fear no deal. I mean from an Irish perspective, a no deal is really bad news; from a UK perspective, a no deal is equally a really bad news story. But for many countries in the EU, this is an important issue but it is not the priority like it was this time last year because Covid has changed a lot and many countries are now dealing with more immediate and fundamental issues," he told the newspaper."

 The EU does want to reform CAP but it's not quite so time-sensitive as Brexit and migration they've spent 5 years not sorting out, they've not all of a sudden decided to sort it before December 31st. It's such bad faith chat. 

 

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

Peston thinks Johnson is willing to risk No Deal because Cummings wants the UK to be able to use state funding to ensure the UK is a leader in new tech industries:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-07/the-reason-why-boris-johnson-is-jeopardising-an-eu-free-trade-deal 

 

"Because if the government of Boris Johnson has an ideology, it is that of Dominic Cummings and his Vote Leave crew. And Cummings's passionate conviction is that Johnson's government MUST have the discretion to invest without fetter in hi-tech, digital, artificial intelligence and the full gamut of the so-called fourth industrial revolution" [....] Who knew that the logic of Brexit would not only be a Thatcherite economic nationalism but a kind of state activism that used to be thought of as socialism?"

 

On another point, now that No Deal has been renamed "an Australian-type deal".....

Can we start referring to Lionel Messi having "an Australian-type contract" with Leicester City?

 

This isn't a recent revelation, this all came up over the Huawei stuff and Cummings talks about it in his blogs going back. Also Peston is thick as mince, what does Thatcherite economic nationalism mean, it couldn't be anymore of a juxtaposed phrase. 

 

But yeah where's the hard right government you and the NS persistently warned us about? Thought it was nonsense at the time but granted I didn't expect Boris was going to be Corbyn in sheep's clothing.

[Alf Bentley]

56 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 The EU does want to reform CAP but it's not quite so time-sensitive as Brexit and migration they've spent 5 years not sorting out, they've not all of a sudden decided to sort it before December 31st. It's such bad faith chat. 

 

 

This isn't a recent revelation, this all came up over the Huawei stuff and Cummings talks about it in his blogs going back. Also Peston is thick as mince, what does Thatcherite economic nationalism mean, it couldn't be anymore of a juxtaposed phrase. 

 

But yeah where's the hard right government you and the NS persistently warned us about? Thought it was nonsense at the time but granted I didn't expect Boris was going to be Corbyn in sheep's clothing.

 

I agree with your point on CAP reform. As I said in my post, Coveney has an axe to grind himself. He's being honest in saying No Deal is likely to be most harmful to Ireland and the UK, but has ulterior motives for downplaying the EU's interest in avoiding No Deal this time. His general point might be true - that it's not quite as high an EU priority as last time - but I'm sure it still matters to them. It's also not as if the EU is incapable of addressing several big issues simultaneously.

 

I'm aware of Cummings' history with these ideas (though probably not as much as you, due to my other commitments).

 

I have no settled opinion on Peston and posted his article as it was presenting an interesting view, not because I necessarily agreed with that view - hence the  that I added!

 

You have a point about "Thatcherite economic nationalism" being dubious analysis. There's a case for Thatcher being one of the least "economically nationalist" govts in modern history, by supporting free market economics, deregulation of finance, ceasing to prop up "national champion" firms, selling off nationalised industries to all-comers etc. A few months ago, I read and enjoyed David Edgerton's "Rise and Fall of the British Nation", which posited that post-war govts, Tory and Labour alike, from Attlee to the 70s were British nationalist govts on economic policy - and that Thatcher, Blair & co were a return to pre-WW2 internationalism, but in a different form and era.

 

You have a real bee in your bonnet about me and the NS, don't you?  I subscribe to it, and have posted links to a few articles that I found interesting - again, sometimes out of interest not agreement. I'm not some NS disciple!

 

The hard right govt might yet arrive, when economic times get tougher after Covid and possibly with a No Deal Brexit, and hard economic decisions to be taken.

To clarify: I've never said Johnson himself is some hard right ideologue; I see him more as a vaguely populist, largely ideology-free egotist. I also fully expected to see an early increase in public spending due to his populist "leveling up" election rhetoric.

Of course, the spending has gone through the roof due to the unexpected arrival of Covid. But there are plenty of hard right folk now in his cabinet and on the Tory benches.

When I expressed fears of a hard right govt, I was imagining a cash-strapped govt facing tough decisions after Brexit becomes reality in December - and opting for hard right solutions, not 5 years of spending splurges.

That fear seems more reasonable than ever to me, if we face the twin challenges of the Covid-generated economic crash and Brexit (possibly with No Deal or a very limited deal).

[Innovindil]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Peston thinks Johnson is willing to risk No Deal because Cummings wants the UK to be able to use state funding to ensure the UK is a leader in new tech industries:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-07/the-reason-why-boris-johnson-is-jeopardising-an-eu-free-trade-deal 

 

"Because if the government of Boris Johnson has an ideology, it is that of Dominic Cummings and his Vote Leave crew. And Cummings's passionate conviction is that Johnson's government MUST have the discretion to invest without fetter in hi-tech, digital, artificial intelligence and the full gamut of the so-called fourth industrial revolution" [....] Who knew that the logic of Brexit would not only be a Thatcherite economic nationalism but a kind of state activism that used to be thought of as socialism?"

 

On another point, now that No Deal has been renamed "an Australian-type deal".....

Can we start referring to Lionel Messi having "an Australian-type contract" with Leicester City?

Re me wanting permanent furlough.... So you're saying there's a chance? Boris and Cummins socialist robot army to take all our jobs. 

 

God bless England. 

[Kopfkino]

18 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

You have a real bee in your bonnet about me and the NS, don't you?  I subscribe to it, and have posted links to a few articles that I found interesting - again, sometimes out of interest not agreement. I'm not some NS disciple!

There's lots of bees under my bonnet, in fact it's probably easier to count the amount of bees not under my bonnet. I read the NS a lot too, it just used to amuse me cos there was just a period a while back when I'd see Stephen Bush's latest chat on the Friday and know its jist would appear in one of your posts by Tuesday and tbf they were also very keen to peddle the hard right narrative. It'd be too polite not to jab it in there.

 

29 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

The hard right govt might yet arrive, when economic times get tougher after Covid and possibly with a No Deal Brexit, and hard economic decisions to be taken.

To clarify: I've never said Johnson himself is some hard right ideologue; I see him more as a vaguely populist, largely ideology-free egotist. I also fully expected to see an early increase in public spending due to his populist "leveling up" election rhetoric.

Of course, the spending has gone through the roof due to the unexpected arrival of Covid. But there are plenty of hard right folk now in his cabinet and on the Tory benches.

When I expressed fears of a hard right govt, I was imagining a cash-strapped govt facing tough decisions after Brexit becomes reality in December - and opting for hard right solutions, not 5 years of spending splurges.

That fear seems more reasonable than ever to me, if we face the twin challenges of the Covid-generated economic crash and Brexit (possibly with No Deal or a very limited deal).

Fair dos if you still think it's reasonable. I can't see a single economic policy coming from the right of the New Labour, let alone anything genuinely right wing, and I don't taking cutting some departmental spending to be a hard right policy. There's just no incentive, probably be wise to vote Labour next election for anybody wanting fiscal competence, in fact I reckon inflation will be more likely to be the focus of the economic discussion rather than deficits or debt. 

 

36 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

I'm aware of Cummings' history with these ideas (though probably not as much as you, due to my other commitments).

Respect that point, I have too much time to waste on nothing useful at all.

[adam1]

Reading all of this and with what has happened are any leave voters now thinking that leaving is just a load of boll0x? 

[st albans fox]

from a long while ago, it seemed to me that our economic relationship with Europe lay in the hands of the EU and their willingness to take the 'moral high ground' and make concessions for the good of everyone …(that's how they would have to sell any apparent capitulation).  seemed obvious that we wouldn't make concessions once may's.second vote failed to get labour support and she ostensibly lost any credibility she may have had and the 'hard leavers' took control. 

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

There's lots of bees under my bonnet, in fact it's probably easier to count the amount of bees not under my bonnet. I read the NS a lot too, it just used to amuse me cos there was just a period a while back when I'd see Stephen Bush's latest chat on the Friday and know its jist would appear in one of your posts by Tuesday and tbf they were also very keen to peddle the hard right narrative. It'd be too polite not to jab it in there.

 

Fair dos if you still think it's reasonable. I can't see a single economic policy coming from the right of the New Labour, let alone anything genuinely right wing, and I don't taking cutting some departmental spending to be a hard right policy. There's just no incentive, probably be wise to vote Labour next election for anybody wanting fiscal competence, in fact I reckon inflation will be more likely to be the focus of the economic discussion rather than deficits or debt. 

 

Respect that point, I have too much time to waste on nothing useful at all.

 

I do like Bush as a writer but see him as quite measured and balanced. As an NS subscriber, I used to get short daily emails and his were the best ones - that's probably what I mainly posted (though I did credit it, not claim it as my own!).

 

Who knows what will happen during the coming 4 years of Tory Govt? There's likely to be a lot of hard decisions to take, particularly if Covid gets bad again in the coming months and/or we have a No Deal Brexit.

Will be interesting to see what Sunak does in his budget - though the bigger decisions might have to wait until 2021, as I suppose the economy won't allow him to risk much in the way of tax rises or spending cuts even if he wants to do that.

 

I waste plenty of time myself, despite my rather sniffy reference to "other commitments" as an excuse for reading less than you. 

[Alf Bentley]

https://news.sky.com/story/jonathan-jones-head-of-governments-legal-department-quits-over-pms-reported-brexit-plan-whitehall-sources-say-12066488

[RoboFox]

 

Theresa May is tearing into them today, and rightly so. In fact Boris has done what I thought was impossible: made her look like a titan of conscientiousness.

 

Edited 8 September 2020 by RoboFox

[Kopfkino]

42 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

 

Theresa May is tearing into them today, and rightly so. In fact Boris has done what I thought was impossible: made her look like a titan of conscientiousness.

 

 

Committing to breaking international law is really something that should bring the government down but there's not many Conservative MPs left with their dignity in tact. 

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Committing to breaking international law is really something that should bring the government down but there's not many Conservative MPs left with their dignity in tact. 

Unfortunately, it seems that international law in a variety of different ways is out the window for now - the current leaders of the top three powers are definitely leading by example when it comes to that, the UK are just following on.

[Kopfkino]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Unfortunately, it seems that international law in a variety of different ways is out the window for now - the current leaders of the top three powers are definitely leading by example when it comes to that, the UK are just following on.

At least the individual actors leading those three, I would debate whether Russia is a top three power assuming that's who you mean, aren't breaking rules which they created and put into law themselves within the last year. 

Secondly, we have a situation where there is more power to stop our government from taking such an action, at least until the government decides to break national law, but that might not happen (it's entirely possible there'd be rebellion on this matter) because too many people, in this case under the blue banner, do not have a backbone to do the right thing and accept that PM Keir Starmer is a better outcome than breaking international law on the whim of a little man who has a strange definition of eye tests. 

Edited 8 September 2020 by Kopfkino

[st albans fox]

We signed an international agreement and in that agreement it gives the ECJ jurisdiction over any decisions we may make which which contravene EU law .......so I reckon much of the stuff we’re currently hearing is likely bluff and bluster ......as was proven with the prorogation of Parliament case, the govt are not above the law ..... 

Edited 8 September 2020 by st albans fox

[leicsmac]

9 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

At least the individual actors leading those three, I would debate whether Russia is a top three power assuming that's who you mean, aren't breaking rules which they created and put into law themselves within the last year. 

Secondly, we have a situation where there is more power to stop our government from taking such an action, at least until the government decides to break national law, but that might not happen (it's entirely possible there'd be rebellion on this matter) because too many people, in this case under the blue banner, do not have a backbone to do the right thing and accept that PM Keir Starmer is a better outcome than breaking international law on the whim of a little man who has a strange definition of eye tests. 

Yeah, to clarify I was referring to Russia - simply because although they're not exactly economically powerhouse right now they do still have an awful lot of hellfire to call upon should it be needed, even though most of it is probably pretty dated these days.

 

On the topic itself, you're of course right - this is probably treading on new ground even by the standards of those actors.

[Carl the Llama]

I've been away for a bit, did I miss us reaching the conclusion that the tories are deliberately running this thing into the ground to make the best possible outcome for their disaster capitalist buddies or are we still in denial on this?

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Carl the Llama said:

I've been away for a bit, did I miss us reaching the conclusion that the tories are deliberately running this thing into the ground to make the best possible outcome for their disaster capitalist buddies or are we still in denial on this?

I think the latest conclusion is that Cummings is deliberately running this thing into the ground so he can build trillion dollar tech companies in the UK, basically betting everything on a far-fetched elusive unicorn plan which in the best of cases will further concentrate wealth in the hands of an already minuscule elite.

[Carl the Llama]

1 minute ago, bovril said:

I think the latest conclusion is that Cummings is deliberately running this thing into the ground so he can build trillion dollar tech companies in the UK, basically betting everything on a far-fetched elusive unicorn plan which in the best of cases will further concentrate wealth in the hands of an already minuscule elite.

Cool, thanks for the update.  

[Bellend Sebastian]

EU now threatening us with sanctions.

 

I'm confident that at this stage of the process this is a good sign

Edited 10 September 2020 by Bellend Sebastian
Too many thats

[lgfualol]

Brexit's going well then. 

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

Brexit's going well then. 

 

Just so that @Kopfkino realises that I don't spend all my time reading the New Statesman.... 

 

[iniesta]

3 months Barnier has said "No progress", then in the space of time it took the FT to leak the Trade Bill, you can't move for politicians in the EU talking about Brexit again.

 

Well played the government for bypassing Barnier.

[Kopfkino]

Even ardent Brexiteer Michael Howard is dumbfounded by it. If MPs aren't going to grow a backbone and oppose this nonsense, then hopefully the Lords can do its best to wreck it but that's ideal for the government's objective of filling the airwaves with Brexit-culture war (shudder at that phrase) nonsense. It's absolutely insane that the Conservatives have managed to end up in a position of prioritising government subsidy of the private sector over international law. They need another 13 year spell in the wilderness.