Christmas period - We have escaped unscathed

[Collymore]

We have picked up 6/12 points in the last four games which should have surely seen us lose ground on our pursuit of the top 4. Amazingly we have still gained 2 points on Spurs and 1 on Arsenal without losing any ground to Man Utd. That is simply phenomenal. 

 

Main rivals for top 4

Man Utd - 6 pts  0

Spurs -  4 pts +2

Arsenal -  5 pts +1

 

The teams that are still worth keeping an eye on still haven't really caught us in anyway either. 

 

To keep an eye on

Chelsea - 7 pts -1

Wolves - 6 pts 0

 

I've picked out some of the bizarre/helpful results below

Gameweek 18

 

Man City 3-1 Leicester 

Watford 2-0 Man Utd

Chelsea 2-0 Spurs 

 

Gameweek 19

 

Leicester 0-4 Liverpool

Wolves 3-2 Man City (to help protect our 2nd place)

Chelsea 0-2 Southampton 

 

Gameweek 20

 

West ham 1-2 Leicester

Norwich 2-2 Spurs

 

Gameweek 23

 

Newcastle 0-3 Leicester

Chelsea 1-1 Brighton

Arsenal 2-0 Man Utd

Southampton 1-0 Spurs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jimothy]

It feels like the title winning season. A few times I thought we'd opened the door for rivals to close the gap, and they just didn't take advantage.

[urban.spaceman]

Pretty much. The Liverpool match was an utterly terrible performance but at least we were kinda competitive (but still completely inferior) against Man City and perhaps could have nicked a draw if it weren't for some dubious decisions. If we'd rotated against them both then the scoreline could have been much worse. It's a bloody good compliment to us though that both of them brought their A game and treated us like proper rivals - if the fixtures had been at a more favourable time in the season maybe things would have been different.

 

Either way, those games are very important lessons to learn from, which is far more important IMO than worrying about what could have been (despite me just doing a paragraph on exactly that). I believe we have tremendous momentum to finish this season on a high and still push on. 

 

What's emerged since Boxing Day is that we've been able to rotate the squad quite ruthlessly, and still been able to win on the road, albeit against struggling teams; though two teams who took 5 points off us last season. There's definitely been an eye on the next 2 cup fixtures with this rotation so it's really terrific that we've picked up 6 points.

 

There's a clear upgrade in mentality that Brendan and co have brought with him, which is what's going to be huge for us moving forward. Sticking to the recruitment philosophy of bringing in players that fit that mentality will be crucial this month. We'd all love to see us sign a Ziyech type, but if he doesn't fit our model then he's not the right player for us.

 

All in all, despite dropping 6 points we're still in an incredibly good place.

[jeffschlupp]

It looks just as good if you consider the gaps after the Villa game - we've took 7 points from 5 games since then, and yet the gaps to 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th are all either the same or slightly larger.

 

We've only lost ground over that period to Manchester City, and I don't think anyone expects us to still be above them in May.

 

Interestingly we are 21 games into the season and we've already played the four of the most difficult five fixtures on paper - Liverpool home and away, Man City away, Chelsea away. We've already been to Old Trafford, Bramall Lane and Selhurst Park too, leaving us with only Spurs and Wolves to play away from the top 9 in the league.

[StanSP]

Can't complain at all with how it's been.

 

Yes I was disappointed we got hammered vs Liverpool but they're one of the best sides in the world and the gap is glaring between the 2. A free hit you could say as our ambition is Top 4, not title win. And it just so happened that results went our way and we didn't drop from 2nd at all. We are literally the best of the rest and have been for a considerable while.

 

There was bravery shown by Rodgers against West Ham and it paid off. Paved the way to go stronger against a better side (form-wise) in Newcastle and even then we probably could have played the 2nd XI against them given how bad they were. It was said by Liverpool fans when Rodgers was hired that Rodgers is/was great at man-management and getting the best out of players, keeping morale high etc. He's done that with the West Ham & Newcastle games and it means the similar players can play against Wigan, so that now we can be much stronger in the more important Villa 1st leg game next midweek. Furthermore, it keeps players fresh for the rest of January which is still quite busy - 6 games but some very winnable games (Wigan, Villa, Southampton, Burnley, West Ham, Villa). We could continue to make some ground on Liverpool (maybe?!) but more importantly get away from 4/5/6th place and extend that gap as much as possible.

 

Regarding our top 4 rivals/chasing pack, there's some interesting fixtures where they could lose/drop points:

11th Jan - Spurs vs Liverpool

18th Jan - Arsenal vs Sheff Utd

19th Jan - Liverpool vs Man Utd

21st Jan - Chelsea vs Arsenal
23rd Jan - Wolves vs Liverpool

[Alf Bentley]

With 17 matches to go.....

- 14 points ahead of Man Utd

- 15 points ahead of Spurs & Wolves

- 18 points ahead of Arsenal

(can probably add 1 point to all of those as we have +20-30 GD on all of them, too)

 

To catch us, they'd almost need to average 1 point per match more than us for the rest of the season.

None of them look capable of winning nearly all of their matches, so that would require a hell of a collapse from us.

 

Admittedly, Chelsea are only 9 points back, which is more doable if we go on a bad run. But even if Man City & Chelsea went past us, that would leave us 4th.

 

Need to avoid complacency, but definite grounds for cautious optimism!

 

 

 

[Guest An Sionnach]

Lost an expected two points to Norwich and a possible one point to Liverpool so over five matches not too bad. We are better than West Ham and Newcastle so got the right results there. Keep this up and we will definitely finish second or third.

[MarriedaLeicesterGirl]

2 minutes ago, An Sionnach said:

 We are better than West Ham and Newcastle so got the right results there. Keep this up and we will definitely finish second or third.

That's the brightest spot -- last year we were losing to teams we were better than. If we can get the 3 pts against "lesser teams" we will be in very good shape indeed.

[CosbehFox]

Interesting contrast in attitudes from our squad. 

 

First choice players looked completely devoid of belief in their own ability against Liverpool and Man City. Those who came in against West Ham/Newcastle looked determined to make an impact. 

[Guest SO1]

Think those dropped six points to M City and Liverpool are going to be very beneficial to us psychologically in the cups.

[Jimbo]

56 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

It feels like the title winning season. A few times I thought we'd opened the door for rivals to close the gap, and they just didn't take advantage.

It's exactly like our title winning season apart from Liverpool are the ones taking full advantage of it. We are doing exactly what we did that year with the teams in and around us dropping points against each other. Without Liverpool doing what they're doing they would be our spurs from that year. 

We just need to keep doing what we are doing. To lose out on top 4 from here would be hard to take.

February could be a tough month for us and results from that run if fixtures should tell us more about where we could end up

[Gary Eatfood]

I think eight wins from the remaining games and a couple of draws should secure a top 4 finish.

[Jacnah]

What I've taken from this period is that we are a long way off the top teams (which isnt really news, as i suspect most of us would have thought this before the Liverpool/Man City results) but we are better, more consistently, against the rest than  the competition 

[Md9]

The good thing about us being so far ahead is even if we lose a few I can’t see teams like Utd wolves or spurs wining every game from now until the end of the season. It shows how close it is outside the top 4 thy arsenal are only 4 points off 5th plce and they have been so poor but could still finish above spurs / Utd. Glad we have our points on the board as if we were in Chelsea’s position 2 bad results and your out of the top 4. Keep the points ticking along we should be fine. Would love vardy to finish top scorer this season to so hopefully he gets a few more in the next few weeks once he is fit again 

[brucey]

We are playing above our ability against the lower teams, and below our ability against the better teams. We made Liverpool and Man City look several divisions above us, and made Soton/West Ham/Newcastle look several divisions below us. I'm not convinced the gap is that massive, when you see the performances of upper mid table teams against them. Hopefully Rodgers figures out how to improve that by the time Europe comes by.

[LinekersLugs]

Mate my liver is fuxked

 

unscathed I am NOT 

[Guest Markyblue]

. 14 points clear of the pack. Man utd 31 points in 21 games. 17 games left so if they got 34 points which is 3 more points in 4 less games it would leave us needing 7 wins in 17 games. All conjecture but basically it's going to take the wheels coming off to not get top 4.

[StanSP]

4 hours ago, jeffschlupp said:

It looks just as good if you consider the gaps after the Villa game - we've took 7 points from 5 games since then, and yet the gaps to 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th are all either the same or slightly larger.

 

We've only lost ground over that period to Manchester City, and I don't think anyone expects us to still be above them in May.

 

Interestingly we are 21 games into the season and we've already played the four of the most difficult five fixtures on paper - Liverpool home and away, Man City away, Chelsea away. We've already been to Old Trafford, Bramall Lane and Selhurst Park too, leaving us with only Spurs and Wolves to play away from the top 9 in the league.

Given our poor record there I'd add Arsenal away as well which carries some level of difficulty. Under Rodgers I think we could stop that hoodoo...

[Guest Eamonn]

Last 3 years the 4th place team got 71-76 points. We need 10 wins, i reckon. With 9 to play at home, our form and BR's management i am very optimistic.

[Gerard]

 

If the week before Christmas someone had offered me a SF vs Villa and 6pts from our next four league games I'd have bit their hand off for it.

 

Any remote chance of winning the title had gone after the Norwich game. 

 

We got 6pts out of next four league games and our first XI have had plenty of rest. If we had drawn versus Liverpool (h), Man City (a), West Ham (a) and beat Newcastle (a) it would still have been 6pts. We dropped the ball against Liverpool and Man City but are now firmly back on track. Two very winnable cup ties coming up and league games that we should be winning and it's all set up to be a great month.

[jeffschlupp]

I thought I'd bump this just to show we still have lost very little ground despite the run in the last 7 games (7 points).

 

Ignoring Liverpool and Manchester City who I think we can safely say will be 1st and 2nd this season, let's look at how the table looked after Villa (8th win in 8 straight games), and how many points each side in the top half has taken since then.

 

Leicester 38 pts. Gained 7 from 7. Now on 45 pts.

Chelsea 29 pts. Gained 10 from 7. Now on 39 pts.

Man Utd 24 pts. Gained 10 from 7. Now on 34 pts.

Wolves 24 pts. Gained 10 from 7. Now on 34 pts.

Spurs 23 pts. Gained 8 from 7. Now on 31 pts.

Sheff Utd 22 pts. Gained 11 from 7. Now on 33 pts.

Arsenal 22 pts. Gained 7 from 7. Now on 29 pts.

Palace 22 pts. Gained 8 from 7. Now on 30 pts.

 

So we've lost between 0 (Arsenal) and 4 points (Sheff Utd) gap between the rest of the 'challengers' for our top 4 position (assuming Everton/Southampton don't make some late run for it).

 

If we were to lose another 4 points to 5th every 7 games for the rest of the season, we would still finish ahead of Manchester United!

 

But perhaps more importantly, when you look at GW24's fixtures, there is a real opportunity for us to get back to where we were in mid-December.

A Leicester win means we've took 10 from 8.

Chelsea play Arsenal - an Arsenal win puts both sides on 10 from 8.

Wolves play Liverpool - should the Scousers win as per usual then they too are on from 10 from 8.

Sheff Utd play Man City - a loss there would mean they've gained just a single point on us from the last 8 games. The same if Spurs beat Norwich, and that isn't exactly a foregone conclusion.

 

So Manchester United (assuming they beat Burnley) could very feasibly be the only side that have gained meaningful ground on us, despite our 'shocking' form. They have the small matter of Wolves, Chelsea, Watford, Everton, Man City, Spurs and Sheff Utd as their next seven games, interspersed with a League Cup semi-final and a two-legged European tie, all without their top scorer!

 

All in all, things are still looking very good for us, because the rest of the challengers are just as rubbish. Rashford and Kane are injured until April, while we've got Ndidi back inside a fortnight. The managerial bounce at Arsenal and Spurs hasn't really happened. None of those sides look in any danger of investing in anyone major in the last 10 days of the window.

 

Our fixtures are also very favourable from the end of February right through to the last game of the season - 10 games in a row without a top 6 opponent.

 

Nowt to worry about!

[Raw Dykes]

I am concerned about our recent form, but on the bright side, we have built up a good lead to 5th. I'm hoping the poor form runs out before our lead does, which I think is pretty likely, especially as none of the chasing pack seem capable of any sort of consistency. I didn't think we were that bad against Burnley - certainly an improvement over the awful Soton performance. Hopefully, it's just a case of needing a bit more luck to get us going again. Having Ndidi back will be a big boost when it happens.

[turkish14]

3 hours ago, jeffschlupp said:

I thought I'd bump this just to show we still have lost very little ground despite the run in the last 7 games (7 points).

 

Ignoring Liverpool and Manchester City who I think we can safely say will be 1st and 2nd this season, let's look at how the table looked after Villa (8th win in 8 straight games), and how many points each side in the top half has taken since then.

 

Leicester 38 pts. Gained 7 from 7. Now on 45 pts.

Chelsea 29 pts. Gained 10 from 7. Now on 39 pts.

Man Utd 24 pts. Gained 10 from 7. Now on 34 pts.

Wolves 24 pts. Gained 10 from 7. Now on 34 pts.

Spurs 23 pts. Gained 8 from 7. Now on 31 pts.

Sheff Utd 22 pts. Gained 11 from 7. Now on 33 pts.

Arsenal 22 pts. Gained 7 from 7. Now on 29 pts.

Palace 22 pts. Gained 8 from 7. Now on 30 pts.

 

So we've lost between 0 (Arsenal) and 4 points (Sheff Utd) gap between the rest of the 'challengers' for our top 4 position (assuming Everton/Southampton don't make some late run for it).

 

If we were to lose another 4 points to 5th every 7 games for the rest of the season, we would still finish ahead of Manchester United!

 

But perhaps more importantly, when you look at GW24's fixtures, there is a real opportunity for us to get back to where we were in mid-December.

A Leicester win means we've took 10 from 8.

Chelsea play Arsenal - an Arsenal win puts both sides on 10 from 8.

Wolves play Liverpool - should the Scousers win as per usual then they too are on from 10 from 8.

Sheff Utd play Man City - a loss there would mean they've gained just a single point on us from the last 8 games. The same if Spurs beat Norwich, and that isn't exactly a foregone conclusion.

 

So Manchester United (assuming they beat Burnley) could very feasibly be the only side that have gained meaningful ground on us, despite our 'shocking' form. They have the small matter of Wolves, Chelsea, Watford, Everton, Man City, Spurs and Sheff Utd as their next seven games, interspersed with a League Cup semi-final and a two-legged European tie, all without their top scorer!

 

All in all, things are still looking very good for us, because the rest of the challengers are just as rubbish. Rashford and Kane are injured until April, while we've got Ndidi back inside a fortnight. The managerial bounce at Arsenal and Spurs hasn't really happened. None of those sides look in any danger of investing in anyone major in the last 10 days of the window.

 

Our fixtures are also very favourable from the end of February right through to the last game of the season - 10 games in a row without a top 6 opponent.

 

Nowt to worry about!

I wish some other fo the doom mongerers in the other threads will see this.

 

yes we’ve been shit, but no teams have been consistent enough for us to worry at this point.

 

great work mate