Coronavirus Thread

[ealingfox]

 

15 minutes ago, simFox said:

 

Unless of course you are a civil servant, council bod on full furlough creaming the covid lottery, in which case keeping the lockdowns going will be great for your extended holibobs.

 

What?

[simFox]

8 minutes ago, Monk said:

You’re making this unfounded assertion again.
 

Yes it costs SOME lives, but you’ve provided no evidence that it costs MORE lives than COVID itself. Where is there a study or a reputable news outlet that says this?

Do you have Google! Christ almighty, look for yourself!

 

https://www.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

 

The estimates, made by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and analysts from several government departments, suggest there were 38,500 excess deaths in England connected to COVID-19 between March and 1 May.

 

However, the report concludes 41% of those deaths were the result of missed medical care rather than the virus itself.

[simFox]

7 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

 

 

What?

Sorry to single out council workers, but there does seem to be a strong correlation between the workshy and pro-lockdown peeps and those with the guaranteed employment of the public sector.

 

We had a 2 week lockdown where I am and you know what, I quite enjoyed it (I don't get much time off). First week back to work was murder!

[StanSP]

10 minutes ago, simFox said:

Sorry to single out council workers, but there does seem to be a strong correlation between the workshy and pro-lockdown peeps and those with the guaranteed employment of the public sector.

 

We had a 2 week lockdown where I am and you know what, I quite enjoyed it (I don't get much time off). First week back to work was murder!

Covid-related or not? 

[ealingfox]

16 minutes ago, simFox said:

Sorry to single out council workers, but there does seem to be a strong correlation between the workshy and pro-lockdown peeps and those with the guaranteed employment of the public sector.

 

We had a 2 week lockdown where I am and you know what, I quite enjoyed it (I don't get much time off). First week back to work was murder!

 

Is this based on anything beyond your own prejudices? Most office-based council workers will have been working from home and frontline services have continued through lockdown.

 

Lockdown doesn't equal holiday.

[Monk]

52 minutes ago, simFox said:

Do you have Google! Christ almighty, look for yourself!

 

https://www.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

 

The estimates, made by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and analysts from several government departments, suggest there were 38,500 excess deaths in England connected to COVID-19 between March and 1 May.

 

However, the report concludes 41% of those deaths were the result of missed medical care rather than the virus itself.

 

I will say that's a higher figure than I expected, but its not 'most', is it?

 

What that figure doesn't take into account though, is lives saved by having lockdown. So when the government weighs up their decision on lockdown, they'll have looked at the opportunity cost of lives that would be lost by not locking down vs lives lost because of lockdown. So whilst it is tragic, it is the lesser of two evils.

 

It also doesn't distinguish between lives lost early and true 'additional' deaths. For example, if someone died earlier from cancer that is a death that would have happened a few months or weeks later then it is still an excess death at that point in time, but would cause a lower than average deaths from that cause later in the year.

 

As badly managed as this whole thing has been, the total number of deaths will still be lower than it would have been if lockdown had not been in place.

 

 

 

[String fellow]

I'm starting to fear that I'm more likely to die of boredom (due to the endless discussion here about COVID-19 statistics) than by the virus itself!

[Guest Fktf]

3 hours ago, Markyblue said:

If you mean me as a covid denier you want to give your head a wobble,  my wife works for the nhs and I'm fully aware what she has gone through,  my point was the nhs was not overwhelmed,  i didn't say other wards were not used for covid patients,  but which ever way you spin it the system coped, i know that doesn't sit well with many on here but there you go.

That already sounds like overwhelmed to me. We've had to make a choice to stop treatment for some conditions just so there's space to treat covid patients. 

 

The aim has to be to keep covid patients low, so there's enough space for all the other treatments the nhs should be doing. "I don't know why this idea doesn't sit well with people, but there you go".

 

 

 

[Innovindil]

Well I think my thoughts are finally changing. Back to work today after being furloughed again. What a shite day. Sign me up for furlough for the rest of my lifetime, cheers. 

[filbertway]

We won't see the effects of the lock downs for a while anyway, when the government needs to recoup all the money it's spent. The music industry on the verge of collapse. People being laid off work. Sports clubs in danger of going bust. It'll be at least mid-year next year before we start seeing which countries have come out of it better.

 

The health of the country to me is more important than the health of individual citizens. For the simple reason that it will affect the majority of people's livelihoods. Feel like we're still making short term decisions, I just hope the government has a long term plan.

 

Short term we needed a quick fix in March/April because obviously the virus was all over the place, we know so much more and are so much more prepared now. To me the local lockdowns seem a bit OTT. I imagine most northern cities will experience spikes as the virus wasn't as prevalent up north as it was in London. I wouldn't be shocked if we're close to herd immunity numbers in London, which is why we aren't seeing any massive spikes.

 

The govt and media have scared the hell out of most of the population now though, so there's no way this government will be brave enough to take a non "public safety" first stance, regardless of the potential long term consequences. It won't be their problem anyway.

[simFox]

1 hour ago, Fktf said:

That already sounds like overwhelmed to me. We've had to make a choice to stop treatment for some conditions just so there's space to treat covid patients. 

 

The aim has to be to keep covid patients low, so there's enough space for all the other treatments the nhs should be doing. "I don't know why this idea doesn't sit well with people, but there you go".

 

 

 

They stopped treatments and sent the elderly home before capacity was hit. The nightingales didn't even get used! 

 

[Guest Fktf]

10 minutes ago, simFox said:

They stopped treatments and sent the elderly home before capacity was hit. The nightingales didn't even get used! 

 

Good. Building, let alone using, field hospitals isn't a sign of a system coping. It's a sign of system straining every sinue not to totally collapse. We never want to be near that possibility if a second wave comes, and one way to avoid it is local lockdowns to try and stop a nationwide second wave.

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, String fellow said:

I'm starting to fear that I'm more likely to die of boredom (due to the endless discussion here about COVID-19 statistics) than by the virus itself!

Well, it is a thread about corona virus

[simFox]

10 minutes ago, Fktf said:

Good. Building, let alone using, field hospitals isn't a sign of a system coping. It's a sign of system straining every sinue not to totally collapse. We never want to be near that possibility if a second wave comes, and one way to avoid it is local lockdowns to try and stop a nationwide second wave.

Now they are dismantling them.

 

Social distancing is all we need.

 

USA cases are rising, deaths are falling. It's no coincidence.

[RoboFox]

1 hour ago, Innovindil said:

Well I think my thoughts are finally changing. Back to work today after being furloughed again. What a shite day. Sign me up for furlough for the rest of my lifetime, cheers. 

I've been working from home throughout, probably with an increased workload, and this kinda makes me feel glad that I have been. 

 

A few of my mates have been furloughed and have started to filter back into work. They're all so miserable. 

[yorkie1999]

10 minutes ago, Fktf said:

Good. Building, let alone using, field hospitals isn't a sign of a system coping. It's a sign of system straining every sinue not to totally collapse. We never want to be near that possibility if a second wave comes, and one way to avoid it is local lockdowns to try and stop a nationwide second wave.

No it’s not, it’s about creating capacity, you can’t have permanent hospitals waiting for a virus to turn up as the maintenance alone would cost billions, and personally I think they did a good job of it and as they built the nightingales so quickly there was obviously a contingency in place.

[Innovindil]

15 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

I've been working from home throughout, probably with an increased workload, and this kinda makes me feel glad that I have been. 

 

A few of my mates have been furloughed and have started to filter back into work. They're all so miserable. 

Usually I'm all up for it, never dodged a day of work in my life. But ****ing hell it's hard to get yourself up after weeks of dossing. No wonder my brother (who's not worked in over 10 years) has no motivation to find a job. 

[Ollie93]

3 hours ago, simFox said:

Sorry to single out council workers, but there does seem to be a strong correlation between the workshy and pro-lockdown peeps and those with the guaranteed employment of the public sector.

 

We had a 2 week lockdown where I am and you know what, I quite enjoyed it (I don't get much time off). First week back to work was murder!

I work for the council and haven't stopped once for covid, whether working from home or not  (have been back in the office full time since April).

 

My mate works for Hawkeye, and hasn't worked on full pay for months...

[Monk]

36 minutes ago, simFox said:

USA cases are rising, deaths are falling. It's no coincidence.

No, deaths are not falling, the 7 day trend is flat. Deaths dipped slightly in June, but started rising again in July.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#trends

 

 

Edited 11 August 2020 by Monk

[CosbehFox]

54 minutes ago, simFox said:

Now they are dismantling them.

They haven't been dismantled at all.

 

They are either remaining in situ  'hibernation' or they are being used as wards for other illnesses which can not be treated in a hospital for the risk of Covid or screening services. 

[StanSP]

3 hours ago, String fellow said:

I'm starting to fear that I'm more likely to die of boredom (due to the endless discussion here about COVID-19 statistics) than by the virus itself!

You don't have to enter the thread

 

[Costock_Fox]

Russia have approved a vaccine, can imagine that being pretty safe...

[filbertway]

14 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

Russia have approved a vaccine, can imagine that being pretty safe...

It's a shame we'll probably never know for sure. We all know it's going to be dubbed a success regardless of what happens haha

[Costock_Fox]

2 minutes ago, filbertway said:

It's a shame we'll probably never know for sure. We all know it's going to be dubbed a success regardless of what happens haha

Yeah probably, and I doubt many other country’s will jump at this without seeing what happens in 6 months or so.

[leicsmac]

5 hours ago, simFox said:

What you seem to disregard (which is everyone else's point) is that trying to save lives from covid is potentially costing more lives and livelihoods. It is more damaging.

 

Yes. The key word in that statement being "potentially". We simply do not know enough. That is why I am disregarding it as unfounded.

 

5 hours ago, simFox said:

 

You are also looking at Brazil with your British societal lens, I work overseas, I know how poor people are, they live day to day. The Brazilian government aren't going to pay people to stay at home, they aren't providing for their citizens in the same way as the UK. Shutting down their economy isn't going save lives in the way you think it is when hundreds or thousands of people share a tap! Staying at home isn't saving lives when you all effectively live together.

 

It's good that you work overseas - so do I and so have I, for eight of the last ten years. Of those, the majority have been spent in a country that, while developed, has its own problems with wealth disparity and a poor underclass (see the movie Parasite). And yet, they have had far fewer cases and deaths than Brazil have with this (so far) - as have countries that share exactly the same social problems that are described here, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines, to name but a few. What did they do that Brazil did not? Take measures of various kinds to stop the spread.

 

Of course, it may end up rebounding on them in the end, but frankly there's no way of knowing that.

 

5 hours ago, simFox said:

The virus will kill less people in a Western country with good health care and more people with less developed health care, your options really come down to how quickly it kills them, not how many it will kill. The end total for the virus will be the same. However you will only change the total with the way you deal with slowing the spread which will drag out the time taken, but ultimately, that might gain you political points. A good leader won't be going for points.

 

This is a huge statement to make and yet totally unsubstantiated. It really should either be qualified as such or some ironclad citations given to support it.

 

NB. I don't get why someone might defend Senhor Bolsanaro when this is far from the only situation where he's demonstrated that he is a poor leader and a shockingly unempathetic human being, but that's a matter for another thread, not this.