Coronavirus Thread

[Innovindil]

I, for one, wish luck to our Russian G̶u̶i̶n̶e̶a̶ ̶p̶i̶g̶s̶ brothers and sisters. 

[filbertway]

Belarus seem to have it right, crack on, have a vodka and get yourself in a sauna.

[simFox]

Here's something interesting when measuring how effective lockdown has been:

 

Why hasn't flu and pneumonia been affected by the lockdown?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24july2020#deaths-registered-by-week
 

 

 

Edited 11 August 2020 by simFox

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, Costock_Fox said:

Russia have approved a vaccine, can imagine that being pretty safe...

As safe as Chernobyl was supposed to be

[yorkie1999]

1 minute ago, simFox said:

Here's something interesting when measuring how effective lockdown has been:

 

Why hasn't flu and pneumonia been affected by the lockdown?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24july2020#deaths-registered-by-week
 

 

 

Probably because flu isn’t documented like covid. But one thing about lockdown, how can we say that lockdown has been effective as opposed to the virus running its natural course. We don’t know if by locking down it’s made any difference.

[Sampson]

9 minutes ago, simFox said:

Here's something interesting when measuring how effective lockdown has been:

 

Why hasn't flu and pneumonia been affected by the lockdown?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24july2020#deaths-registered-by-week
 

 

 

That is a really interesting question and interesting data actually. I'd not seen that before about flu and pneumonia deaths remaining fairly constant.

 

After that finding a month or so ago that covid can remain airborne, which was the finding masks were made mandatory on and explained why so many on The Diamand Princess were getting ill despite not leaving their rooms - you do have to wonder if covid spreads a different way than flu as we don't seem to properly understand how covid spreads yet.

 

Just got to hope that those numbers don't suggest seasonal flu comes back like normal come November-time even despite the social distancing and then if covid does come back that we face the double whammy of the seasonal flu and a winter covid spike at the same time.

Edited 11 August 2020 by Sampson

[Costock_Fox]

39 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

As safe as Chernobyl was supposed to be

That’s pretty safe mate, I’ve been and I only started going grey a few weeks later aged 26  

[z-layrex]

31 minutes ago, Sampson said:

That is a really interesting question and interesting data actually. I'd not seen that before about flu and pneumonia deaths remaining fairly constant.

 

After that finding a month or so ago that covid can remain airborne, which was the finding masks were made mandatory on and explained why so many on The Diamand Princess were getting ill despite not leaving their rooms - you do have to wonder if covid spreads a different way than flu as we don't seem to properly understand how covid spreads yet.

 

Just got to hope that those numbers don't suggest seasonal flu comes back like normal come November-time even despite the social distancing and then if covid does come back that we face the double whammy of the seasonal flu and a winter covid spike at the same time.

 

Exactly what NHS England is so concerned about. Where I work we need to be ready to provide specialist services like ecmo on 2 different floors, incase we need to try and separate the usual winter flu surge from a 2nd round with covid. Not an easy task at all getting the skill mix needed staffing wise.

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

Russia have approved a vaccine, can imagine that being pretty safe...

 

It's been reported that Putin's daughter has been injected with it and is fine, so it must be top gear.

 

Let's hope Vlad didn't pick up the Novichok syringe by mistake. He'd never forgive himself. 

[Costock_Fox]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

It's been reported that Putin's daughter has been injected with it and is fine, so it must be top gear.

 

Let's hope Vlad didn't pick up the Novichok syringe by mistake. He'd never forgive himself. 

Hahah yeah right she’s had it

[StanSP]

 

 

[The People's Hero]

In fourteen months I've only smiled once and I didn't do it consciously

[Monk]

1 hour ago, simFox said:

Here's something interesting when measuring how effective lockdown has been:

 

Why hasn't flu and pneumonia been affected by the lockdown?

On this chart the actual figure looks close to the 5 yr average figure for influenza, but if you look at the underlying data (download the excel file) it's significantly lower.

 

Through most of lockdown flu deaths were around 2/3 of what they would usually be. So lockdown did affect flu deaths.

[Monk]

4 minutes ago, The People's Hero said:

In fourteen months I've only smiled once and I didn't do it consciously

Was it when you chuckled to yourself when you found your Ricky Sappleton Brazil flag at the back of your wardrobe?

[The People's Hero]

She slipped in through the side door lookin' like a queen without a crown; 

Whispered ' honey, don't worry, this virus won't get us down'.

[The People's Hero]

Just now, Monk said:

Was it when you chuckled to yourself when you found your Ricky Sappleton Brazil flag at the back of your wardrobe?

I've seen this from another thread and I'm not sure it was me; although let's rule nothing out.

 

Hope you're well, mate.

[Crinklyfox]

32 minutes ago, The People's Hero said:

She slipped in through the side door lookin' like a queen without a crown; 

Whispered ' honey, don't worry, this virus won't get us down'.

I could have sworn that that wasn't in the Bob Dylan original version (Lily, Rosemary and the Jack of Hearts, Blood on the Tracks)

[The People's Hero]

Just now, Crinklyfox said:

I could have sworn that that wasn't in the Bob Dylan original version (Lily, Rosemary and the Jack of Hearts, Blood on the Tracks)

He's re-recorded it and its a bonus on some versions of his new album; obviously tailored it for this virus situation. Or something.

 

Well spotted. (Is that you, Bob?)

[st albans fox]

the talk about antibodies disappearing after three months isn’t solid - I’m four and a half months down the line and just got an email to say my levels remain good enough for plasma donation no 3 

[WigstonWanderer]

11 hours ago, simFox said:

Do you have Google! Christ almighty, look for yourself!

 

https://www.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

 

The estimates, made by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and analysts from several government departments, suggest there were 38,500 excess deaths in England connected to COVID-19 between March and 1 May.

 

However, the report concludes 41% of those deaths were the result of missed medical care rather than the virus itself.

I don’t think anyone has ever argued against the idea that a significant number of excess deaths are due to collateral damage. However, to conclude that these deaths could have been prevented by not having a lockdown is absurd.

 

Why would people miss medical care?

 

Firstly because they were scared to seek help either from a doctor or from hospital for fear of contracting the infection in these settings. Would they have been less scared if there had been no lockdown and infection had been allowed to run out of control?

 

Secondly, some non Covid patients may have missed treatment because hospitals had been cleared in anticipation of large numbers of Covid patients, and so treatment capacity was not available. This is quite separate from the lockdown itself. Whether you consider the reorganisation of hospitals to cope with Covid to be an overreaction or not, it presumably was done in good faith. I believe the hospital system coped, but probably not by a huge margin at the height of the epidemic.

 

Either way, in the absence of a lockdown, hospitals would likely have been under significantly more stress and would consequently have had even less capacity for non Covid patients.

Edited 11 August 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

Probably because flu isn’t documented like covid. But one thing about lockdown, how can we say that lockdown has been effective as opposed to the virus running its natural course. We don’t know if by locking down it’s made any difference.

This is an unfortunate argument that is always made in similar circumstances. The price of success is that the action taken is deemed to have been an overreaction.

 

Perhaps we’ll get some decent data out of Melbourne. It has about half the population of London and has so far peaked at about 750 cases per day at which point a full lockdown was imposed. Cases had been increasing rapidly even after lower level restrictions had already been imposed. I have no doubt that without restrictions the virus would have run riot.

 

It is too early to say that they have turned the corner yet, but in the last few days the numbers have come down to around 350 per day. If this does turn around, I think we can confidently claim that the lockdown is responsible.

[Dr The Singh]

4 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

That’s pretty safe mate, I’ve been and I only started going grey a few weeks later aged 26  

I went to Chernobyl, I have had a flacid penis ever since.

 

Nothing to do with the radiation, the Mrs has never forgiven me for taking her there

 

[zorro en españa]

8 hours ago, simFox said:

 

USA cases are rising, deaths are falling. It's no coincidence.

Two states, Florida and Georgia, are about to announce their biggest daily rise in deaths with Alabama its second highest daily rise.

 

I am enjoying your arguments simFox and your desire to move the debate forward but you lose credibility with comments like this. 

[CosbehFox]

6 hours ago, filbertway said:

Belarus seem to have it right, crack on, have a vodka and get yourself in a sauna.

Aye just a country bordering on civil war cos of rigged elections 

 

Another 1k plus cases here and 100 deaths 

[reynard]

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

This is an unfortunate argument that is always made in similar circumstances. The price of success is that the action taken is deemed to have been an overreaction.

 

Perhaps we’ll get some decent data out of Melbourne. It has about half the population of London and has so far peaked at about 750 cases per day at which point a full lockdown was imposed. Cases had been increasing rapidly even after lower level restrictions had already been imposed. I have no doubt that without restrictions the virus would have run riot.

 

It is too early to say that they have turned the corner yet, but in the last few days the numbers have come down to around 350 per day. If this does turn around, I think we can confidently claim that the lockdown is responsible.

Good to hear some potentially positive news over there.

There can be absolutley no doubt that lockdowns work in surpressing the numbers of those infected with Covid. One only has to look at the examples so far of New Zealand and Greece to see that hard early lockdowns were effective in reducing infection rates. It is a simple equation, the less people mix the less they pass on infections. There were even studies back in May reporting the virtually nil amounts of new HIV infections etc.