2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Benji]

Just now, Ric Flair said:

We've a 2 week break after the cup game though. 

Exactly I just think the squad looks exhausted and 3 weeks off / training / preparing for the run-in could really see us right for the rest of the season, almost like a mini pre-season.  Totally get we want your players match fit and playing games but this season has been brutal and I can't see players losing match fitness just missing this one game.  It would be a nightmare if we picked up a couple of injuries when things are starting to look up again.  

 

Are any of the squad on international duty I've not kept an eye on what's happening in the break - Belgium / Tielemans is my main concern!

[Ric Flair]

1 minute ago, Benji said:

Exactly I just think the squad looks exhausted and 3 weeks off / training / preparing for the run-in could really see us right for the rest of the season, almost like a mini pre-season.  Totally get we want your players match fit and playing games but this season has been brutal and I can't see players losing match fitness just missing this one game.  It would be a nightmare if we picked up a couple of injuries when things are starting to look up again.  

 

Are any of the squad on international duty I've not kept an eye on what's happening in the break - Belgium / Tielemans is my main concern!

Not sure on the majority of the European national teams plans, I'm hoping they pull the plug last minute.

 

I want us to have a crack at the FA Cup. How many times are we going to bomb out in the QF's at home? Get through vs Man Utd and by the time the semi's come around we ought to have the majority of them back. 

[gerblod]

20 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Note that the game vs Man U on the 21st is the FA Cup game

Thanks. I took the timetable as gospel - in retrospect I should have been exhaustive about checking the actual games ahead. It's certainly a key game and will be hard fought.

[HybridFox]

As an analyst myself I'm interested to see what this looks like in Power Bi 

[Jazzy_Jeff]

Sorry but this is a horribly generic answer - take each game as it comes.

 

Behind Man City we’ve won the most premier league games this season. We are in with a shout every time we get on the pitch.

 

We have players starting to come back and less games to play now out of Europe so let’s go for the win every game and see where we end up.

[Ric Flair]

10 minutes ago, TK95 said:

As an analyst myself I'm interested to see what this looks like in Power Bi 

Bain of my bloody life that is.

[coolhandfox]

4 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Ndidi, Nacho, Youri, Castagne, Evans, Fofana, Soyuncu won't get a break though!

It's a balancing act, slot of football is about momentum.

 

Beating Man U in the FA cup, would be a great phycological boost for the squad going into the last two months of the season.

 

Man U squad will be under more strain then ours as they are still in the Europa League.

[Mythyaar]

I've played the same game as everyone else here. 

 

The Brighton win was massive. I think it re-balances our chances from unlikely to likely now, albeit both were/are only marginal.

 

Everton's Doucore injury pretty much done for them, Spurs too far behind and Euro and League Cup distractions. Liverpool are just too vulnerable at the back to pick up the points they need.

 

That means it's most likely a straight shoot out between us and West Ham for 4th place.

 

67 points will probably do it for us - and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hammers get to that number too. We currently have 5 goals better goal difference. 

 

Providing that we pick up 14 points and 1 of those points is away at West Ham, we will qualify in 4th I'd say.

 

 

 

 

[OrielCaziado]

The pressure of the situation will start to become an issue very soon for both Everton and West Ham. Up to now they’ve been under no pressure regarding finishing top four. The nearer it gets the harder it gets to creep over the line in them tight games. People assuming the chasing pack will continue to beat the teams they should beat every game will get one or two pleasant surprises. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

4 minutes ago, OrielCaziado said:

The pressure of the situation will start to become an issue very soon for both Everton and West Ham. Up to now they’ve been under no pressure regarding finishing top four. The nearer it gets the harder it gets to creep over the line in them tight games. People assuming the chasing pack will continue to beat the teams they should beat every game will get one or two pleasant surprises. 

Yeah reality is Everton and West Ham are the real threat - but they also have less margin for error. EDIT: Spurs too actually...

Edited 9 March 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Les-TA-Jon]

UPDATE after Monday 8th March fixtures

 

Have hidden a few columns that are there for my purposes, but you don't need them. Have added colors. Does that make it more readable or less? 

 

There's not any huge takeaways here really. Everton, West Ham and Spurs are the real threat to our top 4 place. 

 

Points Required and Droppable Points

 

The Run In

 

Edited 9 March 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Ricey]

Just now, Les-TA-Jon said:

UPDATE after Monday 8th March fixtures

 

Have hidden a few columns that are there for my purposes, but you don't need them. Have added colors. Does that make it more readable or less? 

 

There's not any huge takeaways here really. Everton, West Ham and Spurs are the real threat to our top 4 place. 

 

 

Could you hide the fixtures in the run-in that aren't league matches? Or make them a different colour? Keeps confusing me.

[Les-TA-Jon]

7 minutes ago, Ricey said:

Could you hide the fixtures in the run-in that aren't league matches? Or make them a different colour? Keeps confusing me.

Edited

[PNM]

Great work and a great thread @Les-TA-Jon 

 

So many twists and turns to come - surprise results, cup competitions, injuries to players of other teams.

 

I genuinely feel that, regardless of opposition, we'll be fine - so long as we don't have any further injuries. 

 

I think the lads will be thinking about last year saying 'not this this time'. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

Just now, PNM said:

Great work and a great thread @Les-TA-Jon 

 

So many twists and turns to come - surprise results, cup competitions, injuries to players of other teams.

 

I genuinely feel that, regardless of opposition, we'll be fine - so long as we don't have any further injuries. 

 

I think the lads will be thinking about last year saying 'not this this time'. 

Yeah I think what the data shows is:

• 65-68 points will be enough for 4th
• Leicester can afford a slight dip in form and get to that - dropping from their current 1.9 points per game to 1.5
• Chelsea and West Ham can achieve it by simply maintaining their form
• Everton and Spurs require an uptick in form, from 1.7 points per game to 2.0 and 2.1 respectively
• Liverpool and Arsenal need close to maximum points

The 'twists' being that:

• Ourselves, West Ham and Everton don't have european distractions
• Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool and Arsenal have (on paper) the better squads and/or manager

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

It's all gonna come down to injuries and fatigue, hence why it's probably for the best that we went out of the EL. Once you start adding in the next round of European fixtures for the teams that make it through, their schedule and fixture list is gonna look ridiculous compared to ours. Then you also remember Spurs have a game against Man City in the League Cup final, an extra game for them

[Lcfc82]

Champions league qualification is simply in our own hands. We have got 5 very winnable games in the run in,

Sheffield United 

West Brom 

Newcastle 

Palace

Southampton 

if we win those then that should be enough for 4th.

[Ric Flair]

12 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Yeah I think what the data shows is:

• 65-68 points will be enough for 4th
• Leicester can afford a slight dip in form and get to that - dropping from their current 1.9 points per game to 1.5
• Chelsea and West Ham can achieve it by simply maintaining their form
• Everton and Spurs require an uptick in form, from 1.7 points per game to 2.0 and 2.1 respectively
• Liverpool and Arsenal need close to maximum points

The 'twists' being that:

• Ourselves, West Ham and Everton don't have european distractions
• Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool and Arsenal have (on paper) the better squads and/or manager

 

 

I wonder at what point recent form becomes more of a barometer than average points per game over the season. We navigated a run of tough games averaging about 2 points a game from Jan - Feb but then if you measure our last 9 games we are around 1.7 a game. 

[Shit_arse]

This thread needs pinning to the top of the forum!!!! 

 

I still have the spreadsheet for when we won the title - calculating points required etc. 

 

I'd love to understand if Brendan and the players start to look at it this way - or if they do just take one game at a time!!

[Les-TA-Jon]

2 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

I wonder at what point recent form becomes more of a barometer than average points per game over the season. We navigated a run of tough games averaging about 2 points a game from Jan - Feb but then if you measure our last 9 games we are around 1.7 a game. 

Yeah that's definitely a great point. Points per game so far, isn't a great metric, especially when comparing 28~ game's worth of it vs 10 games worth of what's required to the end of the season. I might look at points per game of the last 10 vs the upcoming 10. 

 

Also going forward I will probably abandon the 57, 61, 64, 68, 73 columns in favour of a more likely points spread - i.e 60-68 or something

 

[Les-TA-Jon]

4 minutes ago, Shit_arse said:

This thread needs pinning to the top of the forum!!!! 

 

I still have the spreadsheet for when we won the title - calculating points required etc. 

 

I'd love to understand if Brendan and the players start to look at it this way - or if they do just take one game at a time!!

Yeah I think fans and players should take a very different approach! 

 

Most media reporting only ever looks at teams in isolation or what one specific team needs - regardless of other factors - but that completely ignores that it's much about the points your team gains vs the points other teams drop - hence my approach. 

 

I remember in the title win the media kept saying "Leicester just need 6 more points" or whatever and I kept saying "any combination of 6 points won by Leicester/dropped by Spurs" 

Edited 9 March 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Les-TA-Jon]

25 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

I wonder at what point recent form becomes more of a barometer than average points per game over the season. We navigated a run of tough games averaging about 2 points a game from Jan - Feb but then if you measure our last 9 games we are around 1.7 a game. 

Table and points per game of last 10 matches compared to points per game overall

 

EDIT: added better version. Compares points per game of last 10 matches, overall points per game and points per game required for 68 points. 

 

Shows that Leicester, West Ham, Chelsea and Man U all performing well above required. Everyone else well below.

 

 

Edited 9 March 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Ric Flair]

2 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Table and points per game of last 10 matches compared to points per game overall

Incredibly if the said form from the last 10 is the same as the next 10 then none of the teams below us can catch us. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

1 minute ago, Ric Flair said:

Incredibly if the said form from the last 10 is the same as the next 10 then none of the teams below us can catch us. 

Yeah I've just gone back and provided a better table. 

[Simmo86]

I think the number of games Spurs have to play is going to become a factor soon, they've already played a silly number. I think if they don't win at Arsenal this weekend they start to prioritise the Europa.

 

West Ham have a tricky little period coming up, they might not win a game before they play us.

 

Everton should win their next 2 but then Brighton, Spurs, Villa & West Ham is tough.

 

Our game at West Ham is huge, but we should be in a lot better shape squad wise by then 

Edited 9 March 2021 by Simmo86