2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Kevin Russell]

It looks like top 4 will include - City, United, Chelsea - we are in a race for the last spot.

If we can get our players back playing anywhere near their full potential we have a great chance. If we play like we have for much of the last 3 games I can’t see us getting the points. I feel much better about it with 1 game a week so I’m not writing us off just yet.

[majaco]

We are City.  Which United do you mean?  How can we be a race with ourselves?

 

 

[fox_up_north]

Looking at the run in, there's at least 5 games we can definitely win - Soton, Newcastle, West Brom, Sheffield and Palace. 

It's very, very doable and I would hope they've learned from last year. The Brighton game was actually very useful as it showed Brendan and the club can dig in and get out of a bad spot. Look at Liverpool vs Fulham the other night - once the Londoners scored, the "champions" gave up. 

I've said it before - I'm getting shades of the Watford play off game here, where the squad tasted some pretty bad heartache and fell at the last hurdle but came back stronger. 

[OhYesNdidi]

3 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

Looking at the run in, there's at least 5 games we can definitely win - Soton, Newcastle, West Brom, Sheffield and Palace. 

It's very, very doable and I would hope they've learned from last year. The Brighton game was actually very useful as it showed Brendan and the club can dig in and get out of a bad spot. Look at Liverpool vs Fulham the other night - once the Londoners scored, the "champions" gave up. 

I've said it before - I'm getting shades of the Watford play off game here, where the squad tasted some pretty bad heartache and fell at the last hurdle but came back stronger. 

Whether it’s doable or not, I’m not sure. But to finish in the top 4 that has to be 15 points from those games, any less and it’s Europa league football next season. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

22 minutes ago, OhYesNdidi said:

Whether it’s doable or not, I’m not sure. But to finish in the top 4 that has to be 15 points from those games, any less and it’s Europa league football next season. 

*15 points gained from any games

[OhYesNdidi]

1 minute ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

*15 points gained from any games

in my opinion, we will need at least 70 points. I am not sure if that is me thinking spurs and everton are better than they are. Those games are our easiest, and then maybe a point against west ham and then a point in our final three leagues should do it. Do not want to be in a postiton where we have to beat Man U/Tottenham or Chelsea because we lost to a southampton or sheffield United. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

21 minutes ago, OhYesNdidi said:

in my opinion, we will need at least 70 points. I am not sure if that is me thinking spurs and everton are better than they are. Those games are our easiest, and then maybe a point against west ham and then a point in our final three leagues should do it. Do not want to be in a postiton where we have to beat Man U/Tottenham or Chelsea because we lost to a southampton or sheffield United. 

I totally accept that we should be targeting those games as ‘easier’ but it’s never that easy. Never mind the fact we’ve taken 16 points out of 18 vs the ‘big 6’ and lost ‘easy’ games vs Fulham, West Ham, Leeds etc. 
 

All games are difficult for different reasons. Points are points. We probably need 15. 

[turlo]

70 points and avoiding defeat against West Ham and Spurs will get us top 4. 

[HoustonFox]

9 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I've done similar analytical threads like this in the past - namely the great escape season and during the title win.

 

So I thought I'd so something for the run in and top 4 chances. I'll try and update after every Leicester game. 

 

I've looked at every top flight season that contained 20 teams and awarded 3 points for a win (the 88/89 to 90/91 seasons and the 95/96 season to present). 

 

The averages points for finishing 7th to 3rd are: 57, 61, 64, 68, 73 respectively. This explains the figures at the top of each chart. The charts are the same data, but effectively expressed in 2 different ways - points required and 'permissible droppable points' - I like to look at both, because it shows how much room for maneuver each team has. 

 

We can see that 65-68 points is almost certainly the maximum points required to finish 4th. 

 

 

(Columns explained: Points, current maximum points, dropped points, played, games left, points available, remaining potential maximum points)

 

 

And here's the run in of every team (Spurs still have an unscheduled fixture vs Soton):

 

 

Headlines: 

 

• We need 15 points out of 30 to finish on 68. Or 1.5 points per game. We're currently on 1.9
• Chelsea, Everton and West Ham are the main threat to our top 4 place. They all need 'only' maintain their current form to finish on 68 points. Everton and West Ham don't have any other games or distractions. 
• Liverpool, Spurs, Villa and Arsenal would have to put together an almighty run to get in there. Requiring 2.5, 2.1, 2.3 and 2.7 points per game in order to get there. They can only afford to drop 5, 10, 8 and 3 points respectively and finish on 68 points. 

 

Sterling work there, Jon. I’d like to see some more nested IF statements to show scores and how things change that impacts the forecasts based on results and head to heads 😂 

[Deeg67]

9 hours ago, Woof said:

Interestingly, fivethirtyeight's current statistical forecast is for us to finish 4th on 68 points, with Chelsea finishing 3rd on the same number of points but a better goal difference.  5th is a tie on 63 points for West Ham, Tottenham and Liverpool with Everton next on 61.

I'm not confident yet though!

You mean the forecast that had us at 98% to make the CL last season?

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 hours ago, majaco said:

We are City.  Which United do you mean?  How can we be a race with ourselves?

 

 

Without trying to turn this into a debate, I think it all depends where you grew up or how old you are. No-one my age that I know of refers to us as 'City', we've always called ourselves Leicester, whereas I know of others that are of an older generation that still refer to it as 'going down the City' whenever they go down the KP at the weekend.

 

 

I still worry more about WHU than I do Everton, but thankfully 5 of their next 6 fixtures are tough, then they go to Burnley before playing Everton. If they manage to take 8 or 9 points from their next 4 games, we're in trouble.

[fuchsntf]

3 hours ago, fox_up_north said:

Looking at the run in, there's at least 5 games we can definitely win - Soton, Newcastle, West Brom, Sheffield and Palace. 

It's very, very doable and I would hope they've learned from last year. The Brighton game was actually very useful as it showed Brendan and the club can dig in and get out of a bad spot. Look at Liverpool vs Fulham the other night - once the Londoners scored, the "champions" gave up. 

I've said it before - I'm getting shades of the Watford play off game here, where the squad tasted some pretty bad heartache and fell at the last hurdle but came back stronger. 

I Dont do that sort of Count down...

I Keep it simple...all games are winnable...

,

We started poorly against...L'pool, Burnley, Brighton & Man.city ( Plus others),   But we turned those games around to Pick up points.

We cant worry about what the other/oppo Teams bring, Let them worry about us...

Whether we get all our Elite players back, is Now irrelevant..!!  The returnees wont necessarily hit the ground running...

ie..like We have seen with Vardy, Ricardo,Ndidi..

 

Our Cover & fringe players actually more than helped to see us Move & Hang around Top 4 before Christmas...

i actually believe our "squad" is the weakest, out of the Top 6-7..

Our Top 12 players have Not yet played together as a Match-fit team...

We have Not played continually flowing football, but we have had some important Match winning, top periods & moment in games..!!ich

 

I just want to see us ,trying ,Not start too passively, and whoever plays ,put & keep commitment & Intensity in our game.

B.Rodgers has often said he wants us to move the ball quicker, from the back & through midfield, whoever he selects..

Its the players doggidness & no fear attitude, that will get us through these EOS Run-in games..

Every game from now  must be seen as 3pointers, if the effort is seen & put in, we would all be satisfied even if the odd point is dropped.

There us no reason we cant aspire to  go Unbeaten in these last games....

Again, as long as the effort with some Smart game-management is put in, we will have a Chance of keeping these irritating flies at bay...

 

To be fair our competitors in that Top 6-8, are more than decent teams,so lets not underrate their right to challenge....!!

It will give more Value if we achieve our ambitions, when we Stay humble & respect our competitors..

Lets not lower ourselves to some of "their' forum antics..

 

 

 

 

Edited 9 March 2021 by fuchsntf

[Gerard]

No method is perfect but I feel this is more accurate. Current points per game is a poor metric, point expectation is a far superior one.

 

The mid point on the spread betting on the points has it:

 

Man City 89.5

Man Utd 72.5

Chelsea 69.5

Leicester 68

-----------------------

West Ham 64

Tottenham 62.5

Liverpool 61.5

Everton 60.5

 

On average you would expect two of the chasing four to exceed the points expectation total and two to fall short. I would estimate that if we get 68pts it should just about be enough. 5 wins from our last 10 or 4 wins 3 draws and it might not be comfortable but probably just enough.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

 

 

[PhillippaT]

2 hours ago, HoustonFox said:

Sterling work there, Jon. I’d like to see some more nested IF statements to show scores and how things change that impacts the forecasts based on results and head to heads 😂 

This brings back bad flashbacks of having to program some stupid spreadsheet I needed to create in my job, back in Leeds.  Ugh.  *Shudders*  (If only I hadn't been the only person in the office at the time who knew how to used Excel )

[Bats8711]

I know it’s unpleasant to think about, but the wild card in all of this is that 4th may not be good enough for CL. That would really be a tough pill to swallow. 

[Vardinio'sCat]

11 minutes ago, Bats8711 said:

I know it’s unpleasant to think about, but the wild card in all of this is that 4th may not be good enough for CL. That would really be a tough pill to swallow. 

 

Oh god, I guess it needs to go in this thread somewhere. Let me guess, Liverpool win the CL and finish outside the top 4?

 

 

 

 

[PhillippaT]

17 minutes ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

Oh god, I guess it needs to go in this thread somewhere. Let me guess, Liverpool win the CL and finish outside the top 4?

 

 

 

 

Ruh Roh.  Let's hope their league form in/affects their CL form eh? 

[Vardinio'sCat]

2 minutes ago, PhillippaT said:

Ruh Roh.  Let's hope their league form in/affects their CL form eh? 

 

Hmm, sounds inevitable. 3rd place or better it is then.

[Gerard]

29 minutes ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

Oh god, I guess it needs to go in this thread somewhere. Let me guess, Liverpool win the CL and finish outside the top 4?

 

 

 

 

 

It's more than that and whilst it's a possibility it's unlikely.

 

It would need both these two things to happen for us to finish 4th and not get CL.

 

1) An English team wins the CL and finishes 5th or lower

2) An English team wins the Europa Cup and finishes 5th or lower

[Vardinio'sCat]

1 minute ago, Gerard said:

 

It's more than that and whilst it's a possibility it's unlikely.

 

It would need both these two things to happen for us to finish 4th and not get CL.

 

1) An English team wins the CL and finishes 5th or lower

2) An English team wins the Europa Cup and finishes 5th or lower

 

So Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs. Potentially.

[Deeg67]

Liverpool ain't winning the CL.

[Vardinio'sCat]

 

Or Chelsea or Man U, if they fall away.

[Vardinio'sCat]

Just now, Deeg67 said:

Liverpool ain't winning the CL.

 

I suppose you are right, the defence is pish.

[Deeg67]

1 minute ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

Or Chelsea or Man U, if they fall away.

Man U and Chelski aren't finishing outside the top 4.

 

All these things could happen, sure.  But I'm not losing sleep over it.  Finish 4th and I'd take our chances.

[Gerard]

Liverpool are 4th favourites at 9/1 for the CL.

 

As awful they have been the last couple of months they do have pedigree and if their front three start firing soon you can't write them off.

 

Tottenham and Arsenal are 2nd and 3rd favourites for the Europa Cup. The betting markets have it down as a 29% implied chance that the trophy ends up in North London this season. 

 

I'm not concerned but that may change if we're a solid 4th and both these events are still possible around the SF time.