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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

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1 minute ago, Deeg67 said:

Man U and Chelski aren't finishing outside the top 4.

 

All these things could happen, sure.  But I'm not losing sleep over it.  Finish 4th and I'd take our chances.

 

Fair points all (Chelsea look nailed on top 4 for me), it would be a very Leicester way to get shafted tho.

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18 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

It's more than that and whilst it's a possibility it's unlikely.

 

It would need both these two things to happen for us to finish 4th and not get CL.

 

1) An English team wins the CL and finishes 5th or lower

2) An English team wins the Europa Cup and finishes 5th or lower

Literally no chance, the odds would be 1000:1 at least

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5 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I totally accept that we should be targeting those games as ‘easier’ but it’s never that easy. Never mind the fact we’ve taken 16 points out of 18 vs the ‘big 6’ and lost ‘easy’ games vs Fulham, West Ham, Leeds etc. 
 

All games are difficult for different reasons. Points are points. We probably need 15. 

Bit pedantic, but we have 19/24 points against the big 6.

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44 minutes ago, Nicolo Barella said:

Literally no chance, the odds would be 1000:1 at least

I don’t get the no chance. It’s very realistic  arsenal/ Spurs could win Europa. 
 

Liverpool could easily pull it together and win the champions league. 
 

There’s actually a fair chance that could happen, although unlikely. 

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32 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

I don’t get the no chance. It’s very realistic  arsenal/ Spurs could win Europa. 
 

Liverpool could easily pull it together and win the champions league. 
 

There’s actually a fair chance that could happen, although unlikely. 

This is what I take issue with. To win the CL you need to be at the top of your game. Liverpool are nowhere near and there are a lot of extremely strong continental teams in it this year. 

 

Edit: 0.11x0.29, the odds previously given in this thread multiplied together, makes 0.03. Those are 3% odds. 

Edited by Nicolo Barella
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We have to play 5 teams in the top 7 as the table stands. Man city is a free hit as they are not catchable for us.

That leaves West ham in the midst of the supposed 5 easier fixtures. 

Realistically we need to beat West ham and get 10 to 12 other points from the other 6 games, before the last 3 games.

 

This will leave us with 3 cup final games in the league, we are away to Man Utd and Chelsea which may not be a bad thing.

 

Last ten we have won 5 drew 3 lost 2 giving 18 points, match that to take us onto 71 points

If we  could get wins against West ham, Chelsea and Utd it would boost our chances of staying 3rd

as apart from Man City only Chelsea 21pts and West ham 22pts have outperformed us in the last ten games.

 

COYB

Edited by Motty
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I guess one of the advantages of this season's run in compared to last season is that we are genuinely competing for one of 3 CL spots.  Last season Liverpool and Man C were so far ahead, there were just two available. 

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2 hours ago, Nicolo Barella said:

Literally no chance, the odds would be 1000:1 at least

I've just taken a look.  Liverpool to win Champions League and Arsenal to win Europa is 63/1.  Liverpool and Spurs to win is 40/1.  Both exceptionally poor value.  Might be tempted to put a quid on at your odds of 1000/1 but I would think even that would be a waste of a pound.

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Liverpool don't stand a chance of winning the CL this year without an astonishing turnaround. They'd need VVD back and an intervention. You don't win the CL without having momentum and they are in free fall right now. Bayern would beat them by double digits over 2 legs, as would Man City.

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Article in the athletic suggesting we are overpervorming our xg along with Everton.

 

The good news is we're outperforming our xg, the bad news is we're still reliant on penalties and create relatively few chances.

 

The models have us finishing 3rd or 4th, but we need Vardy to find some form and to create more chances to do it IMO. Still in our hands and according to the model we have a 15% chance of finishing 2nd but a 16% chance of finishing 5th. 

 

Our form against the bigger clubs this year should give us cause for hope.

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4 hours ago, Nicolo Barella said:

This is what I take issue with. To win the CL you need to be at the top of your game. Liverpool are nowhere near and there are a lot of extremely strong continental teams in it this year. 

 

Edit: 0.11x0.29, the odds previously given in this thread multiplied together, makes 0.03. Those are 3% odds. 

Correct - and not quite the same as 'literally no chance'. I am being very pedantic, of course.

 

Someone else said Liverpool have 'pedigree' - in this context, what does that actually mean, that they've won it before or that they have a history? Either way, what went before has little or no bearing on what happens now or in the future. 

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43 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

Correct - and not quite the same as 'literally no chance'. I am being very pedantic, of course.

 

Someone else said Liverpool have 'pedigree' - in this context, what does that actually mean, that they've won it before or that they have a history? Either way, what went before has little or no bearing on what happens now or in the future. 

I was exaggerating, true, but that's only because the post I was quoting said "fair chance" so I overcorrected.

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21 minutes ago, Nicolo Barella said:

I was exaggerating, true, but that's only because the post I was quoting said "fair chance" so I overcorrected.

That makes sense. I understand their concerns, with so many English representatives still in with a chance. In truth, it requires Liverpool to win the ECL, which I consider highly unlikely.

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1 hour ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Article in the athletic suggesting we are overpervorming our xg along with Everton.

 

The good news is we're outperforming our xg, the bad news is we're still reliant on penalties and create relatively few chances.

 

The models have us finishing 3rd or 4th, but we need Vardy to find some form and to create more chances to do it IMO. Still in our hands and according to the model we have a 15% chance of finishing 2nd but a 16% chance of finishing 5th. 

 

Our form against the bigger clubs this year should give us cause for hope.

We've not had a penalty in the league in 2021 though and yet our points per game has remained pretty much bang on with the season as a whole. Its slightly down in the last 8-9 games but not massively. 

 

I've a general feeling that we cannot go the rest of the season with Vardy, Castagne and Ricardo playing as low key as they have been, they'll surely improve nor Ndidi continuing this iffy spell of the last few games. Get Maddison and Barnes back and we'll smoke anyone. 

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I think Rogers has a big call to make on the FA Cup game.  Personally I'd play the kids and anyone coming back from injury who needs minutes, but can see the pros and cons.  Really want us to win the FA Cup but feel like that will happen soon enough, whereas top 4 this season will be massive for our progression as a club.

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Just now, Benji said:

I think Rogers has a big call to make on the FA Cup game.  Personally I'd play the kids and anyone coming back from injury who needs minutes, but can see the pros and cons.  Really want us to win the FA Cup but feel like that will happen soon enough, whereas top 4 this season will be massive for our progression as a club.

We've a 2 week break after the cup game though. 

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Just now, Benji said:

I think Rogers has a big call to make on the FA Cup game.  Personally I'd play the kids and anyone coming back from injury who needs minutes, but can see the pros and cons.  Really want us to win the FA Cup but feel like that will happen soon enough, whereas top 4 this season will be massive for our progression as a club.

Top 4 is hugely more important - win the FA Cup and we all get fantastic memories and that 'monkey' off our back. But then what?

 

Finish top 4, keep hold of all our players and BR, strengthen the squad and improve the medium term fortunes of the club. 

 

Obviously it's not that binary in practice and if we had a fully fit squad then I'd say let's go for it.

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Regarding West Ham, it won't be this simple but this weekend we are at home to Sheff Utd and they are away at Man Utd without Lingard who has scored or assisted the majority of their goals since he arrived.

 

If both ourselves and Man Utd pick up home wins then we are 8 clear of West Ham, who's game in hand is Arsenal. We avoid defeat to them next month and they'd have to average nearly a point a game more than us to overtake us which hopefully negates their easy final 3 games compared to ours.

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2 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

We've a 2 week break after the cup game though. 

Yeah, at this point I think within reason you have to go for it (and I care little about the FA Cup compared to most).  I obviously wouldn't risk Maddison but start a pretty standard 11 - maybe rest Vardy and Ricardo and keep them in reserve, get Praet and Perez a half-hour off the bench.  

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