2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Gerard]

1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

UPDATE 13th March 
 

As per @Ric Flair's suggestion I have added the points per game of each team's previous 10 matches for more recent context of performance. 

 

Not much to report - obviously Chelsea drawing and Everton losing is a help! Chelsea now needs 1.9 points per game to get 68 points. Although note, they're 2.2 points per game over the last 10 matches. 

 

You can see that Everton, Spurs, Liverpool, Villa, and Arsenal would all need to have close to championship winning form to finish on 68 points - they can each only afford to drop 10 or fewer points - and it looks particularly bad for Liverpool, Villa and Arsenal. 

 

Increasingly looks like 3rd/4th is between us, Chelsea and West Ham

 

Also looking at the maximum points totals of the teams below us, 70 points looks to be the realistic absolute maximum required for 4th. 

 

Points Required

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Droppable Points

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Remaining Fixtures

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Tottenham 5th favourites on Betfair for top four place and ahead of West Ham.

 

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.171685558

 

On the points spread West Ham are the likeliest to finish 5th, Everton look almost gone now for a top four finish with a point expectation of 59.5 to our 68.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

[Leicester_Loyal]

James Rodriguez out until early April, Doucoure out until late April, and it shows, look at Evertons current PPG average over the past 10 games. One or two injuries for even a few weeks can literally ruin a season, just shows how well we've done this year, we've had a huge number and just ploughed on and carried on picking up points.

 

I'm going for Everton to finish on 61-63 points, don't think they'll do much better than that, especially not with those fixtures.

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

UPDATE 13th March 
 

As per @Ric Flair's suggestion I have added the points per game of each team's previous 10 matches for more recent context of performance. 

 

Not much to report - obviously Chelsea drawing and Everton losing is a help! Chelsea now needs 1.9 points per game to get 68 points. Although note, they're 2.2 points per game over the last 10 matches. 

 

You can see that Everton, Spurs, Liverpool, Villa, and Arsenal would all need to have close to championship winning form to finish on 68 points - they can each only afford to drop 10 or fewer points - and it looks particularly bad for Liverpool, Villa and Arsenal. 

 

Increasingly looks like 3rd/4th is between us, Chelsea and West Ham

 

Also looking at the maximum points totals of the teams below us, 70 points looks to be the realistic absolute maximum required for 4th. 

 

Points Required

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Droppable Points

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Remaining Fixtures

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Remaining fixtures, Man U column, March, Leicester (A) should be in pink.

[FoxOnWheels]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

I'm quietly confident we will 

I hope your right mate!

[st albans fox]

Gw 29 completes (in relation to us)

 

that’s where we finished last March with lockdown 

 

we are three points better off than we were, again in third place

 

last March we were five points ahead of Chelsea in fourth  .......this March we are five points ahead of Chelsea in fourth !

 

last March we were eight points ahead of yanited in fifth ..... this March we are eight points ahead of a different United in fifth .....

 

and we finished with a convincing home victory ..............
 

spooky ..........

 

 

[Vardinio'sCat]

it's not happening again.

[Foxxed]

Couldn't wait for the update. We now need 1.8888888888888888888889 points per game to get 3rd.

[Steven]

2 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

Couldn't wait for the update. We now need 1.8888888888888888888889 points per game to get 3rd.

Quite. You would have thought that Les-TA-Jon would have had the spreadsheet ready and the results posted by now!   

[hackneyfox]

Totteringham still haven't beaten a team in the top half of the table at the time of playing them.

[harpendenfox]

23 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Gw 29 completes (in relation to us)

 

that’s where we finished last March with lockdown 

 

we are three points better off than we were, again in third place

 

last March we were five points ahead of Chelsea in fourth  .......this March we are five points ahead of Chelsea in fourth !

 

last March we were eight points ahead of yanited in fifth ..... this March we are eight points ahead of a different United in fifth .....

 

and we finished with a convincing home victory ..............
 

spooky ..........

 

 

Am confident our next league game will not be in late June away at Watford. However would take a 1-1, as per last year!

[Koke]

70 points should get top 4. So we need 14 points from 9 games. 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses. Doable but still nervous about it.

 

Edited 14 March 2021 by Koke

[LestaAl]

Playing Man City next , hope that does not derail things

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 hours ago, Koke said:

70 points should get top 4. So we need 14 points from 9 games. 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses. Doable but still nervous about it.

 

I genuinely believe 4 more wins (68 points) and we'll get it.

 

Can't see WHU taking 7 wins from their remaining 10 games, nor Everton winning 8 of their remaining 10. Plus, they both play each other still, so someone's dropping at least 2 points.

 

An Arsenal win against WHU would ensure we're a lot more relaxed about our next two games.

[Gerard]

2 hours ago, Koke said:

70 points should get top 4. So we need 14 points from 9 games. 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses. Doable but still nervous about it.

 

 

It should be less than 70pts, maybe even as low as 63-65 pts will be enough by the end. The spreads have West Ham as most likely to finish 5th with 63.5pts

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

 

For the chasing pack to get 70pts one of them will need to do the following:

 

West Ham W7 D1 L2

Everton W8 D0 L2

Tottenham W8 D1 L1

Liverpool W9 D0 L1

 

It would not be comfortable but we would have a 35%-45% of 4th with as little as three wins. 

65%-75% with four wins

>95% chance with 5 wins

Edited 15 March 2021 by Gerard

[Deeg67]

I would be quite comfortable at 68, and I'd take the under on that if I was betting on the number to make it.  70 could even pip 2nd place, potentially.

[Happy Fox]

We cannot be resting on our laurels with a 4th place finish especially if Liverpool progress in the champions league. We need to wrap up 3rd place as soon as possible.

[Guest bennytwohats]

9 hours ago, LestaAl said:

Playing Man City next , hope that does not derail things

The brilliant thing about this weekend going for us, is that even in the worst case where we lose and everyone around us wins, compared to where we were before this weekend, only Chelsea would have gained a point on us.

 

In eating up 2 games and getting our hardest fixture out the way, that’s pretty good. So we’ve given ourselves a bit of a free pass. Do anything more than lose, or others drop points as well and we are in a good spot.

[Les-TA-Jon]

UPDATE - March 15th 

 

Looking promising! Increasingly looks like 70 will be the absolute maximum required. Pretty much every team below us needs 7 or 8 wins out of their remaining games to post about 70. 

 

We're currently on 2 points per game over out last 10 matches. We need 1.3 points per game to get the 12 points to finish on 68. From West Ham downwards they need 2 points or more per game. 

 

Looks like we need 9-12 points to secure 4th, but as others have discussed 4th may not be enough. 

 

Points

 

 

 

Droppable

 

 

 

Fixtures

 

 

 

Edited 15 March 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Les-TA-Jon]

11 hours ago, Koke said:

70 points should get top 4. So we need 14 points from 9 games. 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses. Doable but still nervous about it.

 

Based on latest update - it's looking pretty unlikely that 70 will be required for 4th. Could be in the 63-68 points range. 

[Simmo86]

4 wins does it (although I think we get to 72) but I'll sleep easier when Liverpool are out of the Champions League

Edited 15 March 2021 by Simmo86

[Leicester_Loyal]

Spurs and Liverpool know their top 4 chances are pretty much nil now, so I reckon they'll just focus on the European competitions, we'll see them rest players for EPL games.

[Aus Fox]

So wins against Southampton, Newcastle, WBA and Palace would see us on 68 points. 
Avoid defeat against West Ham and we go into those last 3 games on 69 points.

With the amount of games teams have to play against each other we could be home and hosed by then and able to rest players for the FA Cup Final. - football doesn’t always work like this, but on paper Palace and Southampton aren’t playing for anything and Newcastle and WBA are woeful at best.

 

[Fish]

35 minutes ago, Simmo86 said:

4 wins does it (although I think we get to 72) but I'll sleep easier when Liverpool are out of the Champions League

Why ?

[Aus Fox]

Added in Champions League 1/4 final and semi final draw on Friday is huge. 
hopefully Liverpool get Bayern Munich, Chelsea get PSG and Man City get Real Madrid.

In the Europa League - Hopefully Arsenal and Spurs get each other and that’s at least one we don’t have to worry about.

[Aus Fox]

1 minute ago, Fish said:

Why ?

If Liverpool win the champions league and Spurs/ Arsenal win the EL, but don’t make top 4 then 4th place will be in the Europa League not the Champions League.