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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

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22 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Yeah, it's nice to have beaten them recently and that they also have probably left themselves a little too much to do to get top 4 themselves bit top 6 is more than achievable and I can see them being a huge nuisance to those around us, likewise Leeds.

And they are going to have Grealish back soon which make them trickier.

 

I still feel that last season we would have lost at Villa, Brighton and Burnley, just feels we are mentally tougher.

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It may be that with Sheffield being so weak the time period between the Brighton and United games will give City a significant advantage in terms of comparable 'game load' with our closest rivals and aid our recuperation possibilities in time for the critical games. I state 'may be' because this season is so unpredictable. 

The predicted (by some) collapse hasn't yet happened. Rodgers has made some astute in-game changes to formation which have certainly enabled the team to show their strengths - even without our better players. I think this shows that this season has been a team performance but, unlike '15-'16 the performance model has been tested and survived the most rigorous challenge in terms of personnel changes. Players have slotted in and displayed the ability to play to a team plan more than a game plan. This shows that training has been very successful in terms of understanding between all the squad rather than those considered indispensible. Rodgers has a very fine line to balance on. He's been brave to select the tyros - and they haven't let him down; indeed Thomas has been exceptional. I suspect he has had to cross his fingers when reintroducing a whole host of his most talented players over the past weeks, but they've performed capably. I guess this will give him confidence and give the guys confidence in him. Liverpool's shocking loss of form only serves to demonstrate how the mighty can fall once confidence leaks out of the team. I honestly believe we are a tougher side than most and the injury adversity has only made us more resilient. Iheancho has been able to demonstrate that, as a pure striker, he has incredible timing and cool. Vardy has demonstrated that, even if he's not scoring goals, his positioning and timing are on a par with the best. At the moment we're doing okay.

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14 minutes ago, gerblod said:

It may be that with Sheffield being so weak the time period between the Brighton and United games will give City a significant advantage in terms of comparable 'game load' with our closest rivals and aid our recuperation possibilities in time for the critical games. I state 'may be' because this season is so unpredictable. 

The predicted (by some) collapse hasn't yet happened. Rodgers has made some astute in-game changes to formation which have certainly enabled the team to show their strengths - even without our better players. I think this shows that this season has been a team performance but, unlike '15-'16 the performance model has been tested and survived the most rigorous challenge in terms of personnel changes. Players have slotted in and displayed the ability to play to a team plan more than a game plan. This shows that training has been very successful in terms of understanding between all the squad rather than those considered indispensible. Rodgers has a very fine line to balance on. He's been brave to select the tyros - and they haven't let him down; indeed Thomas has been exceptional. I suspect he has had to cross his fingers when reintroducing a whole host of his most talented players over the past weeks, but they've performed capably. I guess this will give him confidence and give the guys confidence in him. Liverpool's shocking loss of form only serves to demonstrate how the mighty can fall once confidence leaks out of the team. I honestly believe we are a tougher side than most and the injury adversity has only made us more resilient. Iheancho has been able to demonstrate that, as a pure striker, he has incredible timing and cool. Vardy has demonstrated that, even if he's not scoring goals, his positioning and timing are on a par with the best. At the moment we're doing okay.

Note that the game vs Man U on the 21st is the FA Cup game

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This is a fantastic piece of work. I’ve done similar on spreadsheets at home in previous seasons so this will save me the effort this time.

 

I see 5 wins being enough. That’s half our games from here and there will be a few twists and turns along the way.

 

I must admit the Barnes injury felt like one too many and I despaired after that game, but the win at the weekend felt big. It’s the hope that kills you.

 

If we were injury free at this point I’d be pretty confident for top four. With so many out it feels like it will be a battle to the end. 

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25 minutes ago, Jobyfox said:

This is a fantastic piece of work. I’ve done similar on spreadsheets at home in previous seasons so this will save me the effort this time.

 

I see 5 wins being enough. That’s half our games from here and there will be a few twists and turns along the way.

 

I must admit the Barnes injury felt like one too many and I despaired after that game, but the win at the weekend felt big. It’s the hope that kills you.

 

If we were injury free at this point I’d be pretty confident for top four. With so many out it feels like it will be a battle to the end. 

Cheers - yeah it's basically just a lot of numbers to tell us one simple thing haha: 15 points will (very likely) be enough 

 

And I felt very similarly after the Barnes injury. Which, of course, could still bite us. Just got to hope we start getting goals from elsewhere

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2 hours ago, SixtiesFox said:

Reasons to be optimistic about the run in: Big Dan's unexpected (in so many ways) winner against Brighton gives us huge momentum, Sheff U is our only league game until the free hit against Man City at the beginning of April (time to heal and recharge), 4 winnable games then follow (key players should be returning) plus a crucial game against West Ham (which is away from home!). As for the final 3 games, although tough on paper, 2 of them are away from home and by then Man U might have little to play for and be resting players in anticipation of Europa League glory and Spurs could well be out of contention (remember their last away day against Newcastle a couple of years back?). Finally, we are the only team that hasn't been out of the top 4 all season and unlike West Ham and Everton we have the experience of last year to draw on. Maintain the level of consistency we've achieved so far and we'll  increase the pressure on the chasers by leaving them little margin for error. If we stay focused on doing what we have to do by picking up a further 17 points (for a total of 70) out of a possible 30 then 2 of the chasers will have to put together a Man U type run from last year to deny us.

Why should Man C  be a free hit we have beat them heavily once  and if it is because of our home form hopefully we have put that behind us  and it is surely the height of pessimism  to say we have no chance  against a side we  scored 5 away at  and have lost 3 which with 10 to go is as many as we lost winning it  and howmany thought we were a free hit .

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when you put it like that I think we can do it. Yesterdays performance and Burnley's to a lesser degree showed me this team has grit. They are not willing to throw in the towel. Remember we are not playing our ideal first 11 all fit and firing on all cylinders so in its place we have to scrap and find other ways to win. That might not be our style but its what we have to do. With the tough games coming up I'm hopeful that we also have some of our quality players coming back in to the mix. They will have to hit the ground running sadly which is the only worry. we can do this COYF!

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14 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

72 seems incredibly unlikely. 3 teams would need to suddenly average 2 to almost 3 points per game for the rest of the season

 

image.png.b69b36d063ecdc8fe0d1e01f57332ff1.png

Hope you are correct. I see both Chelsea and Spurs as teams capable of the required runs and Everton and West Ham possibly. Could come down to goal difference yet. Think we will have more idea when all teams have played 30 matches,

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2 minutes ago, reynard said:

Hope you are correct. I see both Chelsea and Spurs as teams capable of the required runs and Everton and West Ham possibly. Could come down to goal difference yet. Think we will have more idea when all teams have played 30 matches,

Well I think the numbers don't lie. It looks pretty difficult for Liverpool, Spurs, Villa and Arsenal to get to 72 points. So that leaves all 2 or 3 of West Ham, Everton and Chelsea to all have a massive uptick in form. 

 

I'm not saying it can't happen - but it's just an indication that 72 points is way more than will be required to finish 4th. 

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1 hour ago, reynard said:

Don't think 68 will be enough for 4th this season. 72 feels more likely right now.

Very very unlikely IMO.

 

Everton play Spurs, Chelsea and WHU so someone's dropping points, regardless of the results.

 

I think Liverpool are out of it now, there's no way they're winning 9 of their last 10. If Spurs fail to win at the weekend I think they'll be one more bad result away from being out of it as well, they probably need to win 8 of their last 11.

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24 minutes ago, Foxaholic ME said:

Why should Man C  be a free hit we have beat them heavily once  and if it is because of our home form hopefully we have put that behind us  and it is surely the height of pessimism  to say we have no chance  against a side we  scored 5 away at  and have lost 3 which with 10 to go is as many as we lost winning it  and howmany thought we were a free hit .

True, but it is not to say we might not beat them as clearly we are capable. It is simply not necessary or expected in order to achieve our objective of finishing in the top 4. Adding unnecessary pressure to this fixture actually could work against our chances of beating them. Treat it as a free hit (the result being irrelevant to our ambitions this season) and it could increase our chances of victory against them by easing the pressure. Why try to find a negative in a post brimming with optimism?.  

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3 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

We've beaten all of them bar Man U. If we (somehow) beat Man U at Old Trafford, then we will have beaten all 6 in the same season. Surely no team has ever done that before? And definitely not in the PL era. 

West Ham did it in 2015/2016

 

If anyone what's a further confidence boost, if we mirror our results from the first half of the season - we get 76! 

 

On the last six games form, we are projected to finish 3rd

On the last ten games form, we are projected to finish joint 3rd 

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4 hours ago, jim5000 said:

Our last 3 games scare me. We have to have it sewn up before we play Utd, Chelsea, and Spurs.

Despite that don't forget how positive our record is vs the rich 6 this year. I'd back us to win at least one of those

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One major difference compared with last year's restart is the midweek european matches for the teams around us happening at the same time rather than last seasons mini tournament at the end of the season.

 

As we've seen with the likes of Chelsea this evening, squad rotation will come into the mix as a result.

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I think it is a bit dangerous to discount Liverpool. I know they are poor at the moment but they are quite capable of winning their last 10 games if they get their mojo back. Remember that Manure won nearly all their last 10 games last season to come from miles behind & pip us.

 

Of course they may decide that their best bet of getting in the Champions League next season is to win this year's competition. If they do then that may mean that they rest their best players in the Premier matches.

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7 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I've done similar analytical threads like this in the past - namely the great escape season and during the title win.

 

So I thought I'd so something for the run in and top 4 chances. I'll try and update after every Leicester game. 

 

I've looked at every top flight season that contained 20 teams and awarded 3 points for a win (the 88/89 to 90/91 seasons and the 95/96 season to present). 

 

The averages points for finishing 7th to 3rd are: 57, 61, 64, 68, 73 respectively. This explains the figures at the top of each chart. The charts are the same data, but effectively expressed in 2 different ways - points required and 'permissible droppable points' - I like to look at both, because it shows how much room for maneuver each team has. 

 

We can see that 65-68 points is almost certainly the maximum points required to finish 4th. 

 

image.thumb.png.6036adf082a7c5a156c858b9dc42b451.png

 

(Columns explained: Points, current maximum points, dropped points, played, games left, points available, remaining potential maximum points)

 

image.thumb.png.86216ff7c9f98860b5ec9403113f6695.png

 

And here's the run in of every team (Spurs still have an unscheduled fixture vs Soton):

 

image.thumb.png.a809855bea531c0a6747e3c18b45b580.png

 

Headlines: 

 

  • We need 15 points out of 30 to finish on 68. Or 1.5 points per game. We're currently on 1.9
  • Chelsea, Everton and West Ham are the main threat to our top 4 place. They all need 'only' maintain their current form to finish on 68 points. Everton and West Ham don't have any other games or distractions. 
  • Liverpool, Spurs, Villa and Arsenal would have to put together an almighty run to get in there. Requiring 2.5, 2.1, 2.3 and 2.7 points per game in order to get there. They can only afford to drop 5, 10, 8 and 3 points respectively and finish on 68 points. 

 

Brilliant.  Thank you.

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