2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[wattolcfc]

8 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Added in Champions League 1/4 final and semi final draw on Friday is huge. 
hopefully Liverpool get Bayern Munich, Chelsea get PSG and Man City get Real Madrid.

In the Europa League - Hopefully Arsenal and Spurs get each other and that’s at least one we don’t have to worry about.

Personally I'd rather the English sides go further in Europe, they'll be more tired and possibly have more injuries meaning that they have more chance of dropping points in the league. Just hope they all lose in the final.

Edited 15 March 2021 by wattolcfc

[Simmo86]

Just now, wattolcfc said:

Personally I'd rather the English sides go further in Europe, they'll be more tired and possibly have more injuries meaning that they have more chance of dropping points in the league. Just hope they all lose in the final.

I'd take that with Utd, Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal. Just want Liverpool out ASAP to get rid of the whole 4th doesn't get CL equation.

[Finnegan]

On the surface of things it worries me how much easier West Ham's remaining games are than ours. 

 

But then when you consider our record vs the "big six" this season and the fact we should have almost everybody back by the run in, maybe it's not so bad. 

 

We'll see. The game against them will feel like a cup final though. In a way, I think I'm glad it's at their gaff. 

[CosbehFox]

5 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

On the surface of things it worries me how much easier West Ham's remaining games are than ours. 

 

But then when you consider our record vs the "big six" this season and the fact we should have almost everybody back by the run in, maybe it's not so bad. 

 

We'll see. The game against them will feel like a cup final though. In a way, I think I'm glad it's at their gaff. 

It's why we could do with Arsenal winning this weekend against them. We'd get a bit of breathing space with that. 

 

There's a good chance when we play West Ham, they could be two points behind us and overtake us with a win. 

 

However if we were to win, it would be a massive step. 

Edited 15 March 2021 by Cardiff_Fox

[Finnegan]

3 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

It's why we could do with Arsenal winning this weekend against them. We'd get a bit of breathing space with that. 

 

There's a good chance when we play West Ham, they could be two points behind us and overtake us with a win. 

 

However if we were to win, it would be a massive step. 

 

As long, obviously, we don't lose like four or five of our remaining games, I think beating them will probably be enough to secure top four really. 

[CosbehFox]

1 minute ago, Finnegan said:

 

As long, obviously, we don't lose like four or five of our remaining games, I think beating them will probably be enough to secure top four really. 

Which would be quite satisfying given West Ham are part of a Slavia Prague jerk circle

[Simmo86]

13 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

It's why we could do with Arsenal winning this weekend against them. We'd get a bit of breathing space with that. 

 

There's a good chance when we play West Ham, they could be two points behind us and overtake us with a win. 

 

However if we were to win, it would be a massive step. 

I wouldn't say there's a good chance, they could easily not win either, both are tough games.

 

Just avoiding defeat at their place should be good enough.

Edited 15 March 2021 by Simmo86

[Hammo]

6 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

It's why we could do with Arsenal winning this weekend against them. We'd get a bit of breathing space with that. 

 

There's a good chance when we play West Ham, they could be two points behind us and overtake us with a win. 

 

However if we were to win, it would be a massive step. 

I'd say there's an equally good chance that West Ham fail to win either of their next two games.

[Clever Fox]

Let's hope Utd get past Milan on Thursday then with the amount of Games they'll have they may crack on the run in.

 

Also ,  I hope West Hams chances has diminished by the time we play them. They may be happy to see us nick 2nd away from Utd. also if they have little to play for.

[CosbehFox]

14 minutes ago, Simmo86 said:

I wouldn't say there's a good chance, they could easily not win either, both are tough games.

 

Just avoiding defeat at their place should be good enough.

 

10 minutes ago, Hammo said:

I'd say there's an equally good chance that West Ham fail to win either of their next two games.

West Ham are outperforming both teams they play on last ten games form, whilst neither Arsenal or Wolves are better than them on the basis of the last six games form. 

[Finn Claw II]

Beat West Ham then focus on the 4 games after that.  All very winnable.

 

 

[oxtonfox]

I don't fear the Hammers as a rival for an UCL spot. They have done very well this season and may well get 5th or 6th and the Europa. They'll be happy with that return. 

I think top 4 is looking more likely now for Warchest-er United, Chelski and the Foxes.

Mansour City will win the league, no doubt, by nearly 20 points. 

My fear is that the 4th place goes should Liverpool win the UCL Cup and/or Arsenal or Hotspuds win the Europa League.  That means we have to get 3rd and will therefore iikely need to finish higher than Chelsea or Warchest.  That will be a very tough ask.  

Those last 3 games of the season are absolutely pivotal. The previous 4 (Newcastle (h), West Brom (h), Southampton (a) and Palace (h) are winnable of course so a maximum return there would be brilliant

[mozartfox]

I can see us losing 3. The 5 games after the Man City match is where we need to get the points on the board.

[OhYesNdidi]

Man City (H) - L

West Ham (A) - D

West Brom (H) - W

Crystal Palace (H) - D

Southampton (A) - W

Newcastle (H) - W

Man United (A) - L

Chelsea (A) - D

Tottenham (H) - D

 

13 points, I wouldn’t be surprised if we beat Chelsea, beat Crystal Palace or lost to Tottenham but I think I’ve been fairly realistic. So this would put us at 69 points!? I predict we will be between 65-72 ish

Edited 15 March 2021 by OhYesNdidi

[Deeg67]

1 hour ago, Aus Fox said:

If Liverpool win the champions league and Spurs/ Arsenal win the EL, but don’t make top 4 then 4th place will be in the Europa League not the Champions League.

Which is never happening.

[Jobyfox]

The magic number is now: 79 points

 

That’s the number required if every one of our rivals got maximum points from now until the end of the season. We know this can’t happen as some of them play each other.

 

The calculated magic number is: 67 points 

 

That’s the number required if the ‘rate of drop’ to achieve 4th continues on the same trajectory as it has since the start of the season

If we maintain the same ppg average we have since the start of the season then we will achieve: 73 points 

 

This is the maths, but of course this all breaks down the closer we get to the end of the season. Short runs of form are much more possible for any team and not everyone has the same difficulty of run-in. 

 

[Jazzy_Jeff]

14 minutes ago, OhYesNdidi said:

Man City (H) - L

West Ham (A) - D

West Brom (H) - W

Crystal Palace (H) - D

Southampton (A) - W

Newcastle (H) - W

Man United (A) - L

Chelsea (A) - D

Tottenham (H) - D

 

13 points, I wouldn’t be surprised if we beat Chelsea, beat Crystal Palace or lost to Tottenham but I think I’ve been fairly realistic. So this would put us at 69 points!? I predict we will be between 65-72 ish

We play Man City the weekend before the 1st leg of their champions league tie (assuming they go through) so may have one eye on that.

 

Im confident against West Ham, we were depleted in reverse fixture and just had one of those days.
 

Next 4 games are all winnable.

 

Last 3 are tricky on paper but good results in the previous 6 should give us the confidence (and points) to have a go and end the season on a high. A lot can happen between now and those games but as things stand we are well placed 

[Nick]

For me, we need to beat West Brom, Palace, Southampton and Newcastle as a bare minimum - slip up in these and then don’t take points from West Ham, Man Utd & City, Chelsea and Spurs - we won’t make it.

 

we need a minimum of 12 points I reckon - no matter where they come from though as it’s us we’ll like lose the first four I mentioned and win the more difficult last five!

[Dames]

5 minutes ago, Jazzy_Jeff said:

We play Man City the weekend before the 1st leg of their champions league tie (assuming they go through) so may have one eye on that.

 

Im confident against West Ham, we were depleted in reverse fixture and just had one of those days.
 

Next 4 games are all winnable.

 

Last 3 are tricky on paper but good results in the previous 6 should give us the confidence (and points) to have a go and end the season on a high. A lot can happen between now and those games but as things stand we are well placed 

Man City will definitely focus on the Champs League if this is the case as thats the one competition they want to win above all, especially since the League is pretty much tied up. I’d fancy our chances in that one.

[OhYesNdidi]

15 minutes ago, Jazzy_Jeff said:

We play Man City the weekend before the 1st leg of their champions league tie (assuming they go through) so may have one eye on that.

 

Im confident against West Ham, we were depleted in reverse fixture and just had one of those days.
 

Next 4 games are all winnable.

 

Last 3 are tricky on paper but good results in the previous 6 should give us the confidence (and points) to have a go and end the season on a high. A lot can happen between now and those games but as things stand we are well placed 

Yeah, just trying to be as realistic as possible! If man United go far in Europe, I can see us beating them as I remember them getting really tired towards the end last season, I think we’re as good as Chelsea and the game vs tottenahm is 3 days before the Europa league final which I’m sure mourninho is aiming for. 

[Ric Flair]

35 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

On the surface of things it worries me how much easier West Ham's remaining games are than ours. 

 

But then when you consider our record vs the "big six" this season and the fact we should have almost everybody back by the run in, maybe it's not so bad. 

 

We'll see. The game against them will feel like a cup final though. In a way, I think I'm glad it's at their gaff. 

Their games are moderately easier than ours but not by much until the final 3 games and even then I can't see them winning all 3 so it probably comes down to their next 3 league games keeping near us and trying to beat us otherwise I think we'll be comfortably ahead of them by the end.

[oxtonfox]

10 minutes ago, OhYesNdidi said:

Yeah, just trying to be as realistic as possible! If man United go far in Europe, I can see us beating them as I remember them getting really tired towards the end last season, I think we’re as good as Chelsea and the game vs tottenahm is 3 days before the Europa league final which I’m sure mourninho is aiming for. 

On the point about Manchester Utd, Oli Gunnar rarely seems to rest key players so it is more likely that they will get tired and suffer niggles in the remaining games, especially as they're still involved in the Europa (Endurance) Cup. Hopefully they get to limp through against AC Milan. Players like Fernandes, Rashford look pretty maxed out and they will be relying on Pogba, Cavani etc. coming back in from injuries.

Edited 15 March 2021 by oxtonfox
s

[BenTheFox]

Given our run in, the four games against bottom half sides (Crystal Palace, West Brom, Newcastle and Southampton) are crucial. If we can pick up maximum points from those games it will put us in good shape. I think 70 points will just about grab us a top four finish. 

Edited 15 March 2021 by BenTheFox

[Carl the Llama]

5 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

Given our run in, the four games against bottom half sides (Crystal Palace, West Ham, Newcastle and Southampton) are crucial. If we can pick up maximum points from those games it will put us in good shape. I think 70 points will just about grab us a top four finish. 

West Ham? Bottom half? 

[BenTheFox]

1 minute ago, Carl the Llama said:

West Ham? Bottom half? 

Sorry, definitely meant to type West Brom.