2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[CosbehFox]

22 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

I wonder at what point recent form becomes more of a barometer than average points per game over the season. We navigated a run of tough games averaging about 2 points a game from Jan - Feb but then if you measure our last 9 games we are around 1.7 a game. 

I played with that and it gives some freaky point tallies. It’s not demonstrative of the situation because teams with good form play each other. 
 

I’d started to do a head to head based on last 6 and last 10 but it’s a bloody long process 

[Ric Flair]

Just now, Cardiff_Fox said:

I played with that and it gives some freaky point tallies. It’s not demonstrative of the situation because teams with good form play each other. 
 

I’d started to do a head to head based on last 6 and last 10 but it’s a bloody long process 

It feels like we've been struggling and teams like West Ham, Chelsea and Spurs have absolutely smashed it but when you look at it even over the last month or 2 that it's difficult to turnaround a several points deficit without a huge nose dive or up turn in form. If the remaining games mirror the previous 10 then nobody can catch us for 4th. Even Chelsea and West Ham who have been averaging more than 2 points a game it won't be enough.

[Foxxed]

After last season's drop, a statistical anomaly, I take little solace in statistical reassurance. Nice analysis though

[Les-TA-Jon]

9 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

After last season's drop, a statistical anomaly, I take little solace in statistical reassurance. Nice analysis though

Well sure - any possible analysis falls down under something as simple as "anything could happen" 

 

Heck, even Liverpool could get maximum points and finish 2nd. Or Villa. 

 

This whole thing isn't really meant to be a prediction or provide any sort of value judgement on any given team's chances. It's a comparative visualisation of what every team needs to do in order to finish where, which in turn gives a 'soft' indication of what is likely. 

 

 

[Foxxed]

Just now, Les-TA-Jon said:

Well sure - any possible analysis falls down under something as simple as "anything could happen" 

 

Heck, even Liverpool could get maximum points and finish 2nd. Or Villa. 

 

This whole thing isn't really meant to be a prediction or provide any sort of value judgement on any given team's chances. It's a comparative visualisation of what every team needs to do in order to finish where, which in turn gives a 'soft' indication of what is likely. 

 

 

Tis good mate. I've spent far too long staring at it

[Lambert09]

9 hours ago, Nicolo Barella said:

This is what I take issue with. To win the CL you need to be at the top of your game. Liverpool are nowhere near and there are a lot of extremely strong continental teams in it this year. 

 

Edit: 0.11x0.29, the odds previously given in this thread multiplied together, makes 0.03. Those are 3% odds. 

Ordinarily I’d agree. But this isn’t a case of a bad club winning, it’s one of the best teams in recent history that have fallen on hard times. If they start to get these injured players back (I’m not to privy to their situation, but I saw vvd training) then there’s no reason they couldn’t make a run at it. 
 

Sometimes we jump on the bandwagon a bit too much, we run with the form or a club rather than looking at the whole. I’m not saying I think they will win it, but I wouldn’t bet against it either. 

[coolhandfox]

8 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Incredibly if the said form from the last 10 is the same as the next 10 then none of the teams below us can catch us. 

I think a lot of City fans have lost sight how good we have been in last 10 league games because of a few poor days of losing to Prague and Arsenal.

 

10 games, 6 wins and 2 draw 2 defeats, even though everyone think West Ham and Chelsea have really closed the gap, in reality its WH 2 points better off and Chelsea 1pt.

[OhYesNdidi]

22 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

Ordinarily I’d agree. But this isn’t a case of a bad club winning, it’s one of the best teams in recent history that have fallen on hard times. If they start to get these injured players back (I’m not to privy to their situation, but I saw vvd training) then there’s no reason they couldn’t make a run at it. 
 

Sometimes we jump on the bandwagon a bit too much, we run with the form or a club rather than looking at the whole. I’m not saying I think they will win it, but I wouldn’t bet against it either. 

No chance Liverpool win the champions league without Van Dijk. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

Does anyone know why I can no longer edit the Original Post? Is there a way to do that? @davieG? 

 

Also is there a way of adding spoiler boxes or expandable boxes to a forum post? (figured this out now)

Edited 9 March 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Les-TA-Jon]

 

Testing a spoiler box

[davieG]

12 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Does anyone know why I can no longer edit the Original Post? Is there a way to do that? @davieG? 

 

Also is there a way of adding spoiler boxes or expandable boxes to a forum post? (figured this out now)

I believe there's time limit on editing posts. I can do it for you if you want. Do you just want to put your latest figures in there?

[Les-TA-Jon]

4 minutes ago, davieG said:

I believe there's time limit on editing posts. I can do it for you if you want. Do you just want to put your latest figures in there?

Nah it's alright then - just thought about adding spoiler boxes and adding each update there - but sounds like it'll be a faff!

 

[davieG]

2 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Nah it's alright then - just thought about adding spoiler boxes and adding each update there - but sounds like it'll be a faff!

 

I think one of the reasons is that there's a chance a post could be altered to change the meaning of a post after people have liked it. As Admin if I ever edit a post i try to put a reason in the post to show that I've changed it.

 

Yeah it can be a bit of a faff. If it gets to be a problem just start a new topic with the latest updates in, perhaps after every 2/3 games. You can put the date in the title so people know it's a new one and when it's from.

[FoxOnWheels]

I’m trying to take things one game at a time because it we fall from 1 point off 2nd to outside the top 4 over the next 10 games will be a horrible feeling 

[cruzFOX]

Just had another look at the chart (gonna print it out and put it on my wall BTW) I think the rest of this month will be kind to us as far

as we will win against sheffield and other results go for us. (just my hunch) 

As for April and May I'm really worried unless we start getting madders and Barnes back and look like we're playing at full strength again.

Our rivals are firing on all cyclinders and not suffering much in the injury dept. We have to dig deep to stay in the game . COYF!  

[cruzFOX]

1 minute ago, FoxOnWheels said:

I’m trying to take things one game at a time because it we fall from 1 point off 2nd to outside the top 4 over the next 10 games will be a horrible feeling 

yeh I totally feel the same. Want to keep that at 'arms length' cushion for as long as we can and hope manu drop points here and there

[Lambert09]

1 hour ago, coolhandfox said:

I think a lot of City fans have lost sight how good we have been in last 10 league games because of a few poor days of losing to Prague and Arsenal.

 

10 games, 6 wins and 2 draw 2 defeats, even though everyone think West Ham and Chelsea have really closed the gap, in reality its WH 2 points better off and Chelsea 1pt.

Yes and no. I think we are realistically looking at our current situation and seeing that we are not the same team anymore. We had some serious luck against burnely and brighton tbh and could easily have lost them both.  

 

Im hoping we can pull together a few more smash and grabs before our players get back, but I think against a good quality side we wouldnt get away with what we have in the last 2 

[Lambert09]

56 minutes ago, OhYesNdidi said:

No chance Liverpool win the champions league without Van Dijk. 

Is there a chance he will be back? I saw him training so maybe hes only a few months away now. 

[Ric Flair]

2 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

Yes and no. I think we are realistically looking at our current situation and seeing that we are not the same team anymore. We had some serious luck against burnely and brighton tbh and could easily have lost them both.  

 

Im hoping we can pull together a few more smash and grabs before our players get back, but I think against a good quality side we wouldnt get away with what we have in the last 2 

We've also been horrendous defensively in both games, as well as games vs Arsenal and Leeds where we had a number of chances to score more that had we not defended like cretins we ought to have got something from those games.

 

We win some games we could have lost and we lose some games we could have won, that's why when you look across our season we have been unnervingly consistent. We average around 2 points a game and it doesn't deviate too much from that even when we think we're struggling or think we're playing well.

[Lambert09]

Just now, Ric Flair said:

We've also been horrendous defensively in both games, as well as games vs Arsenal and Leeds where we had a number of chances to score more that had we not defended like cretins we ought to have got something from those games.

 

We win some games we could have lost and we lose some games we could have won, that's why when you look across our season we have been unnervingly consistent. We average around 2 points a game and it doesn't deviate too much from that even when we think we're struggling or think we're playing well.

I have a big worry that fofana and Soyuncu are a bit too similar. I’m not 100% convinced they compliment each other and will work as our duo moving forward. 
 

I’ll be shot to pieces for saying it but I think we should be in for Tarkowski in the summer. You need the rough and tumble reliable guy that lets the more flashy or rash defenders take a bit more of a risk. 
 

 

[coolhandfox]

6 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

Yes and no. I think we are realistically looking at our current situation and seeing that we are not the same team anymore. We had some serious luck against burnely and brighton tbh and could easily have lost them both.  

 

Im hoping we can pull together a few more smash and grabs before our players get back, but I think against a good quality side we wouldnt get away with what we have in the last 2 

I didn't mean good as in proformance, as we haven't been playing well all the time.

 

However we have been very good at finding a way to win or draw. 

 

Which is the biggest change from last season for me is we now seem able to get results when we are playing poorly.

[Lambert09]

1 minute ago, coolhandfox said:

I didn't mean good as in proformance, as we haven't been playing well all the time.

 

However we have been very good at finding a way to win or draw. 

 

Which is the biggest change from last season for me is we now seem able to get results when we are playing poorly.

Helps massively when you don’t keep trying to use chilwell as your only creative outlet 

[OhYesNdidi]

4 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

I have a big worry that fofana and Soyuncu are a bit too similar. I’m not 100% convinced they compliment each other and will work as our duo moving forward. 
 

I’ll be shot to pieces for saying it but I think we should be in for Tarkowski in the summer. You need the rough and tumble reliable guy that lets the more flashy or rash defenders take a bit more of a risk. 
 

 

I agree. It’s not even like Soyuncu is young though, he’s 25. But we do look defensively suspect when Fofana - Soyuncu play together. I believe Fofana and Evans are currently the best pairing...

[Ric Flair]

10 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

I have a big worry that fofana and Soyuncu are a bit too similar. I’m not 100% convinced they compliment each other and will work as our duo moving forward. 
 

I’ll be shot to pieces for saying it but I think we should be in for Tarkowski in the summer. You need the rough and tumble reliable guy that lets the more flashy or rash defenders take a bit more of a risk. 
 

 

I'd like to see them in a back 4 and see if it improves, the reason I say that is because Soyuncu in a back 3 is weirdly erratic compared to in a back 4. Fofana has a mistake in him from time to time regardless of who his defensive partner is, but I do agree that currently Evans is the ideal partner for either defender.

[cruzFOX]

agreed at the moment Evans and Fofana for me (master & student). Cags is finding his way back to his best which given his multiple injury layoffs has hampered his form. Hopefully he's back to his best sooner or later.