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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

By Les-TA-Jon, in Leicester City Forum

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Matt_Lcfc

Matt_Lcfc

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ric Flair said:

I'd like to see them in a back 4 and see if it improves, the reason I say that is because Soyuncu in a back 3 is weirdly erratic compared to in a back 4. Fofana has a mistake in him from time to time regardless of who his defensive partner is, but I do agree that currently Evans is the ideal partner for either defender.

Yeah agreed. Said it for a while but I think we will find that Soyuncu and Fofana play better alongside Evans than each other. That said, I think Soyuncu is erratic in a back three because he always gets put onto the left side which makes it very awkward for him. 

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Raw Dykes

Raw Dykes

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2 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

I didn't mean good as in proformance, as we haven't been playing well all the time.

 

However we have been very good at finding a way to win or draw. 

 

Which is the biggest change from last season for me is we now seem able to get results when we are playing poorly.

Exactly. I was so pleased with the Brighton win, because it was a very promising sign that we're mentally much stronger than at this point last season. We were badly affected by injuries, a goal down, played pretty terribly for the first half, but still found the resolve to get the 3 points. That's all it's about from here on in. Results. It's a cliche, but it's true. Winning while playing badly is the sign of a good team.

 

In the latter part of the title-winning season, we ground out a lot of 1-0 wins. We weren't the best side to watch in that run, but we did the important bit. That's what we need now.

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UpTheLeagueFox

UpTheLeagueFox

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Posted

We have 3 more points after 28 games than at this stage last season.

We were 8 points clear of 5th (ManU) at this stage. (Although it would've been 7 had SheffU won their game in hand)

We are currently 5 points clear of 5th. (Although it would be cut to 2 points if WHU win their game in hand)

 

This doesn't take us anywhere new but thought I'd mention it.

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Gamble92

Gamble92

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2 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

We have 3 more points after 28 games than at this stage last season.

We were 8 points clear of 5th (ManU) at this stage. (Although it would've been 7 had SheffU won their game in hand)

We are currently 5 points clear of 5th. (Although it would be cut to 2 points if WHU win their game in hand)

 

This doesn't take us anywhere new but thought I'd mention it.

Sounds so strange to talk hear Sheffield United mentioned that high. The difference between that extra goal or two has been extraordinary for them, and Liverpool this season too. Hate to sound like Billy Davies but fine margins and all that.

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Nicolo Barella

Nicolo Barella

Posted
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13 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

I'd like to see them in a back 4 and see if it improves, the reason I say that is because Soyuncu in a back 3 is weirdly erratic compared to in a back 4. Fofana has a mistake in him from time to time regardless of who his defensive partner is, but I do agree that currently Evans is the ideal partner for either defender.

Soyuncu was really good that one time we put him in the middle of the back three, would like to see us try him in the middle again, with Evans or Fofana on the left. It would mean exposing Evans a bit more but he'd have Soyuncu to cover for him anyway.

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Raw Dykes

Raw Dykes

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9 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

We have 3 more points after 28 games than at this stage last season.

We were 8 points clear of 5th (ManU) at this stage. (Although it would've been 7 had SheffU won their game in hand)

We are currently 5 points clear of 5th. (Although it would be cut to 2 points if WHU win their game in hand)

 

This doesn't take us anywhere new but thought I'd mention it.

If West Ham win their game in hand, we would be 3 points clear of 5th. West Ham would leapfrog Chelsea, who would then be 5th on 50 points.

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coolhandfox

coolhandfox

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Raw Dykes said:

If West Ham win their game in hand, we would be 3 points clear of 5th. West Ham would leapfrog Chelsea, who would then be 5th on 50 points.

True, they play Man U this weekend whilst we play Sheff U and then play Arsenal their game in hand the following weekend.   

 

By the time we next play the could be a point above us, if we lose to Sheff U and they win both or they could be 8 points behind with no game in hand if we win and they lose both.

 

By the 21st of march we should have a better idea of how big a concern the are.

 

The game against them on the 10th of April could be a very big game.

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KrefelderFox666

KrefelderFox666

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5 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

True, they play Man U this weekend whilst we play Sheff U and then play Arsenal their game in hand the following weekend.   

 

By the time we next play the could be a point above us, if we lose to Sheff U and they win both or they could be 8 points behind with no came in hand if we win and they lose both.

 

By the 21st of march we should have a better idea of how big concern the are.

 

The game against them on the 10th of April could be a very big game.

There is no sign of them dropping away, playing with confidence and Lingard has been a great addition. As you say, the game on 10th APril will be huge.

 

Personally I hope that both us and West Ham can be up there but no chance that either of Man U or Chelsea will drop off unfortunately.

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Ric Flair

Ric Flair

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2 hours ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

There is no sign of them dropping away, playing with confidence and Lingard has been a great addition. As you say, the game on 10th APril will be huge.

 

Personally I hope that both us and West Ham can be up there but no chance that either of Man U or Chelsea will drop off unfortunately.

No Lingard away at Man Utd is a huge chance for us to be 8 clear of them after the weekend.

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davieG

davieG

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3 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

7 points clear of Everton with the same amount of games played and a 13 better GD. I think realistically they need to win 8 of their last 10 games to get top 4, but they still have to play Spurs, Arsenal, WHU, Man City and Villa too, gonna be mega tough for them, can't see them achieving it.

We need them to try so they can take points of of them.

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

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Posted (edited)

:brendan_still:UPDATE 13th March :brendan_still:
 

As per @Ric Flair's suggestion I have added the points per game of each team's previous 10 matches for more recent context of performance. 

 

Not much to report - obviously Chelsea drawing and Everton losing is a help! Chelsea now needs 1.9 points per game to get 68 points. Although note, they're 2.2 points per game over the last 10 matches. 

 

You can see that Everton, Spurs, Liverpool, Villa, and Arsenal would all need to have close to championship winning form to finish on 68 points - they can each only afford to drop 10 or fewer points - and it looks particularly bad for Liverpool, Villa and Arsenal. 

 

Increasingly looks like 3rd/4th is between us, Chelsea and West Ham

 

Also looking at the maximum points totals of the teams below us, 70 points looks to be the realistic absolute maximum required for 4th. 

 

Points Required

 


1906111349_Points1303.thumb.png.f54f08ddc5b09f61c455b51cb1f455a5.png
 

 

Droppable Points

 


220048522_Droppable1303.thumb.png.20f1eec1215ccc4d850a09d809af2e98.png
 

 

Remaining Fixtures

 


1981319622_fixture1303.thumb.png.51c1056667cdbf96a067f440aeed6cf7.png
 

Edited by Les-TA-Jon
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Ric Flair

Ric Flair

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

:brendan_still:UPDATE 13th March :brendan_still:
 

As per @Ric Flair's suggestion I have added the points per game of each team's previous 10 matches for more recent context of performance. 

 

Note much to report - obviously Chelsea drawing and Everton losing is a help! Chelsea now needs 1.9 points per game to get 68 points. Although note, they're 2.2 points per game over the last 10 matches. 

 

You can see that Everton, Spurs, Liverpool, Villa, and Arsenal would all need to have close to championship winning form to finish on 68 points - they can each only afford to drop 10 or fewer points - and it looks particularly bad for Liverpool, Villa and Arsenal. 

 

Increasingly looks like 3rd/4th is between us, Chelsea and West Ham

 

Also looking at the maximum points totals of the teams below us, 70 points looks to be the realistic absolute maximum required for 4th. 

 

Points Required

  Hide contents

 

 


1906111349_Points1303.thumb.png.f54f08ddc5b09f61c455b51cb1f455a5.png
 

 

 

 

Droppable Points

  Hide contents

 

 


220048522_Droppable1303.thumb.png.20f1eec1215ccc4d850a09d809af2e98.png
 

 

 

 

Remaining Fixtures

  Hide contents

 

 


1981319622_fixture1303.thumb.png.51c1056667cdbf96a067f440aeed6cf7.png
 

 

 

So important we win tomorrow. Chelsea's next 2 games are a piece of piss whereas us and West Ham look to navigate tough games and hopefully we'll still comfortably be top 4 entering then a run of 4 games I'd expect us to win all of them and pretty much secure top 4.

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FoxOnWheels

FoxOnWheels

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

So important we win tomorrow. Chelsea's next 2 games are a piece of piss whereas us and West Ham look to navigate tough games and hopefully we'll still comfortably be top 4 entering then a run of 4 games I'd expect us to win all of them and pretty much secure top 4.

Agree but think we all know very unlikely we will win all them 4 games

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